Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, June 19, 2017

Updated 11 AM - Recon May Make the Call Today on #2 or #3. Watching 93L Moving Off the Yucatan and Atlantic PTS 2. Bret? Cindy?

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11 AM discussion out of NHC PTC2

Basically puts the brakes on intensification for now.
Holds it at 40 MPH vs 50 MPH 


Possibly interaction with land as it nears South America.
Fast forward speed of 02 

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See how close the bottom side is to land.

As for 93L has a 90% chance of development.

You can see the "center" pop out just N of the Yucatan.

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If this trend continues looking better for upgrade.

A race to see which low closes off...
...and gets the name Bret.

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You can see both systems battling shear.
Models may be verifying w 93L
Stay tuned.

Nice map below from
Learn how to use the home page features..

Many good links at

Keep reading if you have not already.

Again the newest product shows estimated times of winds arrival.

You may wonder why it is not an official Tropical Storm.
If it has 40 MPH you must be thinking what gives?
We are not sure there is a closed center.
But we know the winds are there.
Recon is flying in soon.

Image above shows two ripples in the flow.
Neither look totally closed off.
Time will tell soon.

Let's start at the very beginning, it's a very good place to start. When you have a storm headed towards South America you talk about the ABC islands. Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao are down in the Caribbean near South America and so is the #2 storm. After PCT2 affects Trindad and Tobago it will slide along coast of South America and even as a Tropical Storm it can make a huge impact. This region is not used to seeing storms, however Matthew visited the region last year. Often back to back seasons share patterns. Bret will most likely form from this and it will not be anything like Matthew, however it may share similarities with Tropical Storm Bret from 1993. To show how unusual this season is to most other seasons an early Tropical Storm formed in 1993 named Bret in AUGUST in the same place. That Bret was in August and this system we are watching is doing the same thing in June. I'm pointing this out to show how unusual it is to have a strong tropical wave that came off of Africa become a potential Tropical Cyclone in June and have it not be the A storm but the B storm. The region below may be under the gun from this tropical cyclone as it tries to maintain it's energy in the Eastern Caribbean.

Tropical Storm Bret in 1993.

Current image of the system from the floater.

Looks good.
Moving fast.

Current cone for #2 that could become Bret soon.

This system is forecast to stay low.
Barbados dropped it's watches and warnings.
Skims the coast of South America.
Slides fast into the Caribbean.
May stay alive and affect the ABC islands.
It's an evolving situation.

Is there something to the name Bret?
Time will tell what happens in 2017.
Below is a loop of what may be Bret below.

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It may not look like all that.
But it's all that.
Spinning it's way fast towards the islands.
Gaining a bit of latitude as it moves West fast.

You can compare and contrast the above with below.
93L as it tries again to pull itself together.
93L is not all that yet.
Used the same imagery so you can compare better.

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The Atlantic storm is one mass moving together, spinning.
The Mess in the NW Caribbean is trying to pull together.
It oozes, it moves about, it flares up and dies down.
Is there a center there? 
Is the center just about to come off of the Yucatan?

Possibly there is a center there.
But it's still has the N to S axis.

It's worth looking back at the models from last week that were vying for attention and you may remember they showed a long plume of tropical moisture in the Eastern GOM with a displaced center further to the West headed towards the Northern Gulf of Mexico coastline. You can see this set up happening already as everywhere from Cozumel to Key West has already had rain impacts from moisture caught up in the flow. Cuba has been under the tropical moisture gun from 93L for the last few days. That moisture may wrap up and form a center or it may squeak it's way into history as a large, poorly formed Tropical Storm that is pulled North towards an eventual landfall and the moisture, the tropical rain moves up into the Appalachians. If this happens it could be a huge event as some of the places need rain badly and other areas are prone to flooding. The timing on a tropical system riding a frontal boundary is as always iffy. And, there is still some hope for beaches further West along the GOM coast seeing this, however the models are coming together somewhere between Houston to Pensacola. If this season stays weak then rain will be sheared off to the East of a poorly formed center and Florida continues to get rain. Bottom line if you booked a Caribbean cruise with stops in Key West and Cozumel you may see more rainy days than you were hoping for but that's why cruises are cheap in the summertime and sometimes the Hurricane Season comes early. 

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The morphed composite does show a few things.
A strong, busy ITCZ.
Much moisture in the Caribbean moving up into the GOM.
A slow possible roll starting at the tip of the Yucatan.

From far away you can see both our systems.

Lastly today I want to discuss what it is currently and take a look at the water vapor loop.

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With due respect to the Euro...
...currently the door to the West is not there.
It could open up over time.
The flow is up into the GOM.

I've talked online about an ULL forming.
They can steer and ventilate a system.
Watch the GOM carefully.

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Watch the frontal boundary carefully.
As the high digs in and moves West "Bret" moves West.
It's not Bret yet but the NHC forecasts it to be a 50 MPH Bret.
How far the High moves West....
How deep down the front move....Watch the High in the GOM.
Watch and see if the door opens for 93L
If the door opens for 93L to move to Texas it will grab it!

2 things to remember.

1. When things form in the tropics in the Atlantic in June it usually is a sign of a busy season. This rule goes back to Bill Gray who knew tropical weather better than anyone. And add to that we are looking for the B or C storm as the A storm has already formed. Those are another set of ABCs to remember today.

2. Dying, stalled out frontal boundaries mixing it up with weak, poorly formed tropical storms can create flooding misery for many in their path especially if they hook up. It may be a meteorological romance, however it often delivers huge flooding for people in it's path. 

3. Either area can get the Bret name if something changes rapidly in the NW Caribbean it could steal the name Bret and Cindy could be in the Atlantic headed towards the Caribbean. 

It all depends on how the Tropical World Turns..

Stay tuned. I'll update with information as soon as something changes. We may have a named Tropical Storm today or we may have another Tropical Depression or another Potential Tropical Cyclone. 

Besos BobbiStorm.
Follow me on Twitter @BobbiStorm for faster updates in real time as things evolve.

Ps Recon missions are scheduled and they often provide the information for better forecasting and they often make the call as to whether a system does or doesn't have a closed circulation center. So keep checking back often.

Oh and there's a new wave leaving Africa as we watch the other two systems ... never forget there are more waves over Africa westbound.

Model for #2 below.

Loop below shows 93L closing off and eventually hooking left.

Stay tuned... nothing set in stone today.

Except more rain is on the way in the GOM.

I know, I know....

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