Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Saturday, June 17, 2017

93L Forms and 92L Hangs On. Which Model is Right and Which are Wrong?

2 Invests in June.
Says a lot.

93L in the Caribbean.  80% chances.
92L in the Atlantic. 60% chances.

Floater for 93L in the Caribbean.

ft_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

A wider shot is needed to understand the complexities.

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Convection is finally converging in the Caribbean.
Shear is present still.
Shear should lessen.
Various areas vying for attention...
A general gyre sort of motion.
Not there yet...

The area of convection now currently known as Invest 93L is in the NW Caribbean. Rain has been torrential over certain areas already without any name or designation. Cuba and Jamaica have been dealing with the now vs the later. The biggest question is where the later ends up being in a few days. The NHC has raised the odds to 80% and is sending in a plane tomorrow to take a closer look at this area for investigation. Again an "Invest" simply means an area is designated for investigation as to further tropical possibilities. Some die a lonely death, ridiculed and maligned and others go on to become strong hurricanes. Most systems in June are expected to be weak, poorly formed tropical storms however this June is the new July in the tropics.

The models mostly take 93L into the GOM, however the drama continues as the favored model has not jumped on board the Florida Alabama game plan and is still looking with puppy dog eyes at the climatologically favored BOC solution into the general Tex Mex area. If and when the Euro jumps on board the Eastern GOM solution this will be taken way more seriously. For now as Mike at Spaghetti Models puts it so well... someone is right and someone is wrong. See the graphic below for that illustration. However, there is another theory in the works that I spoke about earlier in the week where one part of the "energy" goes North pulled by a front towards friendlier conditions in the Eastern GOM and another small piece of energy moves into the BOC and quietly makes landfall along the borderlands. 

Understand the area being looked at as possible origination of formation is the area closer to the coast and yet the whole area in truth is inside the large round red circle. It's common during formation for areas to flare up that are not connected to the developing center of a system. However, those flare ups rob the other area of energy. I like the image below as it shows the area where the Low is and where the convection was earlier today.

It has not come together yet.
It has made much progress today.
Tomorrow should be the big day for 93L

That's a big issue for the NHC.
The Euro seems to rule.
But the GFS was upgraded.
Was it worth it's $$ for the upgrade?
Time will tell.
Stay tuned.
Despite the designation not much has changed.

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Upper Level Lows creating confusion.
Shear still present.
Convection pushed off to the Right (East)
Dry air moving down into the GOM.
A sense of a bubble forming.
Talk on a high aloft developing.
Lots of juice but no smoothie yet!

And as for 92L it is battling shear as well.
It's on the other side of the equation.
Stronger than it should be...
....not strong enough yet.

.rbtop_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

Shear forecast to possibly lighten up.
Got some convection back tonight.

You can see what's left of 92L battling West.
Dry air and shear are a problem.
Spoiler Alert:
There will be more shear in the E Carib..
(if it ever makes it there...)

Basically the reality of 92L as I have said is not so much it's future but it's very designation this early in the season. Yes that is the main region of development for the much anticipated Atlantic Storms but that is usually only active in late July at the earliest and August when you must watch that area.

Why this year? For one this year has many exceptions and differences which make it a good year to find storms that break the rules. Extremely high heat and a late start to the rainy season in South Florida with triple digit days in North Florida in very early June. Many of the daily highs in South Florida were all time record breakers. The heat in the SW is extreme for June as well and that becomes an issue for steering currents and conditions in the NW Gulf of Mexico. In reality the set up is different than your usual June fare. So beware constants we usually go by and rules we like to quote as this season things are different. We also still have cold fronts dipping down and questions on how far South those fonts will dip. If a storm is in the GOM it could be pulled North easily as the models above have shown consistently. In the Atlantic if 92L gets a name it may be short lived as it may crash into South America or skim along to the North of Trinidad or go dancing in Trinidad. Some models show it staying alive in the Caribbean and others kill it off early on and until we have a verified center and recon data the models are only as good as garbage in and garbage out.

Stay tuned.
I'll update Sunday.

Besos BobbiStorm
@Bobbistorm on Twitter
Follow me on Twitter for faster updates.

I owe ya all some music tomorrow ;)
Sweet Tropical Dreams.........


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