Debby Update. Hurricane Season 2018 As Normal As Can Be.. Why You Ask?

Quick review of what's new in the tropics.

Despite all the doom and gloom in the discussion regarding the forecast future of Subtropical Storm Debby she found a sweet spot in the normally cold North Atlantic and had a burst of intensity allowing her to maintain her reign in the tropical Atlantic (or not so tropical but feels like tropical) Basin. Note the discussion shown below explaining why she is still an entity this morning but why she will most likely be killed off later today or tomorrow.

Map shown below.

I really prefer their maps.

Love the NHC but map wise they are lacking.

Why is this important you ask? I mean do we really need to worry about a storm so far North it's closer to the North Pole and Northern Europe than most tropical cities such as Galveston, New Orleans, Miami or Charleston? Yes it matters and yes it is a subtropical storm in the tropical variety the same way an apple is related to a rose plant. 

Trivia of the day here:

"Apples, peaches, pears, and plums are all from the Rose family (Rosaceae). , strawberries, and cherries are too. If you look closely at the flowers on these herbs, shrubs, and trees, you will notice the similarities. Flowering plants from the Rose family have a cup-like shape with five petals and oval-shaped leaves."

It is what it is and it's the D storm and that means we are waiting for the fifth named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season in early August before most years have even had their first named storm. Yet, with nothing to really write about meteorologists are going on and on about how slow this season is likely to be based on numerous meteorological abbreviations and updated forecasts for this season. Note if you have to constantly update your "forecast" it is not a "forecast" any longer it is merely a "state of the tropics update" named a forecast. It's a real time in the middle of the month updated forecast because your previous forecast looks like it might be a bust but we won't know until November 30th really how slow or busy, quiet or active the 2018 Hurricane Season will be until then. So everyone is writing whatever they can to make sense of it all.

I don't really think it's that unusual and it's going to be a pretty average season overall. Many weak storms with names that didn't amount to much to remember. One or two larger, stronger hurricanes that we may remember for years to come especially if they make landfall. A season that will come to life in it's own time most likely around prime time in a few weeks. Everything changes and this too shall pass in that the Saharan Dust won't be a player all season and the waters are already warming up and the typical change in wind flow patterns will be more favorable to tropical development for a brief time before people begin to wonder when the first snow will show up in their town.

Dior brought out their new fall palette today!

It's called Volcanic ;)

See the pattern here?

Hyping the Hawaii volcano...

Why they don't do a weather palette I don't know.

Maybe they are more into geology?

Looks a lot like the colors of the sunset from Hector.

So back to the tropics and maps.

Why we should worry on this season?

High latitude storms.

Will that be a pattern?

Or was it just a random happenstance?

Let's look at Africa up close.

More tropical waves departing from Africa.

Recently another pattern has shown itself.

Continued convection down in the Caribbean.

Down near the Yuctan.

Yes SAL is still there....

...but his time on the clock is limited.

Much like Debby.

Note that tropical wave reaching out to the west...

...towards the last wave that made it across.

The new one coming off.

ITCZ is juicing up and coming to life.

Just in time for prime time.

So keep it loose, enjoy your day and know that today is what it is and it is what you make it. Grasp the day, seize the opportunity to get some sun or bake a cake or go buy ice cream time and money permitting. It may rain today but the sun will shine again eventually. And, it it's shining today it may be storming by late this afternoon. Enjoy the moment. Do not get lost in the fighting online about everything from whether the EURO model is better than the GFS or who won the last election forgetting to realize the next election is less than two years away. Stay centered on the now and what you have in front of you ... as he said in Twister ;)

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

UPDATED!! Alberto Reforming .. NNE @ 13 MPH... New Center, Similar Track, Florida Under the Gun from Alberto's Weather. Mobile Bay to Panama City Who Get's Landfall. The Problem with Not Photogenic Subtropical Cyclones. Will Alberto Transform to Tropical?

Alberto. 

Still 40 MPH.

Moving NNE at 13 MPH.

Forecast Discussion.

Forecaster Beven explains NNE ....

Alberto has the typical atypical Subtropical Storm signature of asymmetrical signature. The reason Alberto looks like this is it is dealing with shear and dry air coming in from the West as expected blowing the his massive amount of convection off to the East over Florida. He also reformed over night over one of his other centers we spoke about and though not totally reformed he is moving North towards a targeted spot somewhere between the North Central Gulf Coast and the Florida Panhandle. The reason it's hard to pinpoint the spot totally is that the reformation of the center throws off previous model plots and now rather than going North off the Yucatan there was a shift to the right that for now pulls the track to the right a drop. However, the hook to the left before landfall is still supposed to occur. You can see the closed center of Alberto on the Earthnull site however it's hard to see on visible imagery. The appearance has gotten a bit better throughout the day and perhaps the morning's first good visible image may show the center better. Or Alberto will stay this way for a while as many Gulf of Mexico hybrid sort of storms do that do not conform to the perfect definition of a cyclone but the NHC a while back opened the door to naming and giving advisories to these types of systems and that is where we are today. It's not a bad place to be, it's gives the public the most amount of information in advance about the dangers from an approaching storm with strong wind, waves, rainfall and all the other types of action a storm of this sort brings with it. And, often even the messiest storms like this do find a sweet spot to wrap up close to shore so it's important to pay attention no matter what name is used to describe it or what flag it is flying so to speak. I'm just referring to it now as Alberto.

This is a good graphic from the NHC.

Shows the area where weather could be.

Rains and associated flooding.

Your typical "CONE" 

But the cone follows the center.

Subtropical Storms have weather far from the center.

So it's a good map but a bit useless.

Well unless you are at landfall.

Mobile Bay to Panama City be warned.

My favorite map.

The old "Navy" map.

Note the grid is wider.

Circles show were TS force winds could happen.

I prefer people look at this map as if you are in Tampa or Naples looking at the regular NHC Cone it would give the appearance you don't have much to worry about other than rain. Wrong... strong weather is associated with these storms and this storm in particular has "JUMPED" rather than moved as it relocated under an additional center. It did it once, it could do it again as it struggles to survive it's battle with unrelenting shear and dry air. Models are shown below. Also if you are not now on Twitter but want to dip you toes in the water you may want to check out the Twitter feed Mike provides on www.spaghettimodels.com down towards the bottom left and you may want to rethink whether you want to be on Twitter. There is much useful, timely information there. The Tweet I'm showing is from Cranky who I sometimes refer to in my mind as CW who has an awesome brain and amazing handle on how weather works and does a good job of explaining it on Twitter with both words and maps.

I'm going to update this blog later this evening with the newest information. I'm going to write a post also that mostly shows some Hurricane History with both May/June storms in this region and also the hard to understand and not very photogenic Subtropical Storms that form in the Gulf of Mexico often early in the year or late in the year. Earl from 1998 comes to mind as does Colin just a few years ago.

Colin

Alberto

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps ... Viewers of my blog from a long time back know that in the past I have ranted and raved about how stupid it was to name some amorphous looking storm a Tropical Storm or Subtropical and also complained when they did not upgrade a great looking Disturbance to a Tropical Storm. I've seen a a "Tropical Disturbance" slam into Hispaniola with flooding rains and it looked way better than Alberto and didn't get a name. The truth is it is what it is and I'm just going with it this time. There is a center there even though it's overall appearance is more disheveled than some guy who had been out all night drinking and took the Uber home not cause he was being "good" but because he couldn't find his car in the bar parking lot. It is what it is. The truth is it is Memorial Day Weekend and some people really can be dumb as $hit and that is sad but true and better they be warned than be taken by surprise because Alberto didn't get his act together until just before landfall. If you look carefully both at the satellite image (that shows a naked swirl) and Earthnull there is something there. It is what it is and I'd rather people be warned. 

My youngest son was at the Air and Sea Show in Miami that went on under gray skies from the wet sand, rain coming and going. It's a big event and today it went on despite the Florida State of Emergencies and Alberto going to rehab promising to reform.  It is what it is.