Debby Update. Hurricane Season 2018 As Normal As Can Be.. Why You Ask?

Quick review of what's new in the tropics.

Despite all the doom and gloom in the discussion regarding the forecast future of Subtropical Storm Debby she found a sweet spot in the normally cold North Atlantic and had a burst of intensity allowing her to maintain her reign in the tropical Atlantic (or not so tropical but feels like tropical) Basin. Note the discussion shown below explaining why she is still an entity this morning but why she will most likely be killed off later today or tomorrow.

Map shown below.

I really prefer their maps.

Love the NHC but map wise they are lacking.

Why is this important you ask? I mean do we really need to worry about a storm so far North it's closer to the North Pole and Northern Europe than most tropical cities such as Galveston, New Orleans, Miami or Charleston? Yes it matters and yes it is a subtropical storm in the tropical variety the same way an apple is related to a rose plant. 

Trivia of the day here:

"Apples, peaches, pears, and plums are all from the Rose family (Rosaceae). , strawberries, and cherries are too. If you look closely at the flowers on these herbs, shrubs, and trees, you will notice the similarities. Flowering plants from the Rose family have a cup-like shape with five petals and oval-shaped leaves."

It is what it is and it's the D storm and that means we are waiting for the fifth named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season in early August before most years have even had their first named storm. Yet, with nothing to really write about meteorologists are going on and on about how slow this season is likely to be based on numerous meteorological abbreviations and updated forecasts for this season. Note if you have to constantly update your "forecast" it is not a "forecast" any longer it is merely a "state of the tropics update" named a forecast. It's a real time in the middle of the month updated forecast because your previous forecast looks like it might be a bust but we won't know until November 30th really how slow or busy, quiet or active the 2018 Hurricane Season will be until then. So everyone is writing whatever they can to make sense of it all.

I don't really think it's that unusual and it's going to be a pretty average season overall. Many weak storms with names that didn't amount to much to remember. One or two larger, stronger hurricanes that we may remember for years to come especially if they make landfall. A season that will come to life in it's own time most likely around prime time in a few weeks. Everything changes and this too shall pass in that the Saharan Dust won't be a player all season and the waters are already warming up and the typical change in wind flow patterns will be more favorable to tropical development for a brief time before people begin to wonder when the first snow will show up in their town.

Dior brought out their new fall palette today!

It's called Volcanic ;)

See the pattern here?

Hyping the Hawaii volcano...

Why they don't do a weather palette I don't know.

Maybe they are more into geology?

Looks a lot like the colors of the sunset from Hector.

So back to the tropics and maps.

Why we should worry on this season?

High latitude storms.

Will that be a pattern?

Or was it just a random happenstance?

Let's look at Africa up close.

More tropical waves departing from Africa.

Recently another pattern has shown itself.

Continued convection down in the Caribbean.

Down near the Yuctan.

Yes SAL is still there....

...but his time on the clock is limited.

Much like Debby.

Note that tropical wave reaching out to the west...

...towards the last wave that made it across.

The new one coming off.

ITCZ is juicing up and coming to life.

Just in time for prime time.

So keep it loose, enjoy your day and know that today is what it is and it is what you make it. Grasp the day, seize the opportunity to get some sun or bake a cake or go buy ice cream time and money permitting. It may rain today but the sun will shine again eventually. And, it it's shining today it may be storming by late this afternoon. Enjoy the moment. Do not get lost in the fighting online about everything from whether the EURO model is better than the GFS or who won the last election forgetting to realize the next election is less than two years away. Stay centered on the now and what you have in front of you ... as he said in Twister ;)

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter