Mid Atlantic Under the Gun This Year from Wicked Weather. Will A Hurricane Come It's Way Too? Too Soon to Say But Signs From the Past Point to Tropical Trouble.

This is where we are this morning. A big, colorful tropical wave prepares to leave Africa. A suspect area of convection will flare up as the sun gets higher in the sky in the Gulf of Mexico. A long trail of deep tropical moisture runs from Florida up to Canada. The area most under the gun is the Mid Atlantic northward including a good part of the Carolinas. Florida will get more rain than usual from the GOM as it moves about in tandem in flow with the whole shebang that is messy and busy and everyone wants it to go away. It will go away, but it will be replaced with stronger waves and developing storms so are you ready for the Hurricane Season? I'm guessing if you are reading this you are more ready than the Average Joe. Note the white area of convection ahead of the new wave that loops like a leaping dolphin. That will allow this wave to stay alive longer than the last strong wave that tried to flare up just before it rolled onto the coast of South America. 

The rains in Pennsylvania and New York will create havoc and when I say havoc I mean water rescues and property under water and the water is going to keep rolling downstream to the lowest point and then it may keep rolling. Rivers will rise. What starts in PA often ends downstream in DC, Maryland and parts of Virginia. The Mid Atlantic really is in a set up going into the hurricane season that isn't pretty and way too welcoming for any tropical system pushed westward too close to the coast by a large persistent Atlantic High. Note the map below by Cranky of the current set up. The current set up is waiting for a system from Canada to finally move in and rearrange the flow. The problem with this set up is if it hangs around in any way and you throw a tropical marble into that pattern it only brings more trouble to the Mid Atlantic. When I harp on the Mid Atlantic it is because it's not a good set up for them this year, but anywhere along the coast from the GOM to Florida has to watch carefully when the Bermuda High breathes, expanding in then out then in again. Highs do that they remain anchored but they float around a bit near that anchor and every degree it pushes West or East means escape or landfall for a hurricane.

Nothing stays the same though there are commonalities. In the same way that we are young and then we get older, some of us get wiser and some of us don't... the story is in the telling. A young hot looking guy who enjoyed playing sports turns into a fat slob from drinking too much beer and eating too many chips while watching sports and is too tired to get up to go to the fridge to get another beer. His wife who was a hot young thing before she had 3 kids and cut her long blonde hair short because it was easier has to shop at a large size store and wanders in and out of Weight Watchers trying to lose that extra fifty pounds. She gets him the beer, she plays Candy Crush and nibbles on M & Ms which is a far cry from what she used to nibble on back when they met. Life's not bad for the aging happy couple but it's not what it was and neither are they. You think I'm depressed right? Nah.. being playful.

So you have this set up with the High Pressure and Cousin SAL is the hottest guy in town. He blows out hot Saharan Dust lighting up the sunsets in tropical hues and everyone thinks he's their hero. Lord knows we all need heroes. After the 2017 Hurricane Season people will take any hero they can get to go through that again. We grasp at heroes named SAL or "Cooler Water Temps" (It's just a bit cooler? No problem we'll take it!!) or the always popular EL Nino. But no matter how bulked up Cousin SAL is at some point he begins to get tired of dealing with the incessant, insidious tropical waves and he's not getting as much support from his friend "cooler waters" like he did earlier in the season and by late August Cousin Sal becomes a really big sloppy mess. El Nino comes in like the Trojan Horse ready to save the day (a dollar short and way too late by the way) and delivers what could be crappy weather to many parts of the country that will then be blamed on El Nino that goes fast from friend to foe. 

I'm pretty sure that old Homer was probably pretty hot when he was young, I mean his wife is still pretty hot in a Smurfy kind of way with the blue hairdo. But I think you get where I'm going with this in that things evolve and what is on the weather maps today evolves into a bigger problem during late August and early September. I do think in fact we will have something to talk about the first week of August in the Atlantic but either way the area close in that gives us Home Grown could produce a named system or a pain in the rear end no name storm that brings strong weather and more flooding rains to some area along the coast. Keep watching. For now SAL is strong and so is the moisture feed running out of control until some Canadian front pushes down and it being July doesn't help much as it's a bit early for that, however I have leaves on my Maple tree in Raleigh that are beginning to turn yellow so I'm guessing we are just running fast and furious towards Fall this year.

Mid Atlantic. 

Keep it mind.

Today and down the road.

In Raleigh this big beautiful pecan tree came down.

Beautiful house.

Beautiful tree.

Withstood many a hurricane.

But it came down from a strong storm.

Maybe it was tired.

Maybe just the storm was strong.

https://www.wral.com/blast-of-wind-damages-historic-house/17716149/

What is it about people that makes them get crazy hysterical about some one online or leads to road rage when cut off but we cry when we see such a beautiful old tree that came crashing down. Anyway... I suggest you learn the differences in the Flood Watches and Warnings that the NWS puts out so linking to an article below that is worth you taking the time to read. Do you really know what an AREAL FLOOD is or do you think it means it's a real flood? Wrong. Please read especially if you live near a stream that is high or in an area already water logged from recent rains.

http://www.weatherboy.com/different-flood-types-advisories/

Do you really know the differences? Now would be a good time to learn them and be aware of the specifics your area might be dealing with during the next few days while tropical convection keeps being pumped up over a good swath of the East Coast. That said, places out West had flooding today also so it's a lesson everyone needs to learn because even in a desert there is sometimes rain.

Knowledge is power. I say that all the time here and in person and it's true.

I'll be back when there is something to report or to make an update. I'm in pre travel mode as I'm preparing to go back to Florida for a little while for some family happenings and I'm sure the photos in my blog will reflect that change of scenery. Keep smiling, stay alert and enjoy the quiet times if you are not under the gun from wicked rain storms.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Not proofing this so if I made a mistake... sorry and I'll fix it later.

https://www.npr.org/2014/09/19/349621429/the-song-that-never-ends-why-earth-wind-fires-september-sustains Interesting article about a song about the 21st of September... the peak of the Hurricane Season. Will we be tracking??

Ps Using that knowledge you have to know that the Saharan Dust will eventually give it up to moist, tropical waves and the shear zone gives way to kinder aspects for those tropical waves trudging Westbound. 1985 and 2012 had similar set ups and they both had impacting hurricanes along the Mid Atlantic. If you aren't familiar with hurricane history then look up the names Gloria and Sandy. That is why I worry as our set up this year mirrors similar set ups, however the monkey wrench is that every hurricane season is just a little bit different from the analog one.