Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, November 02, 2021

Wanda. Yellow Circle Seeds an EPAC Storm. Kind of the Story of the Year in the SW Caribbean

 


The hard to see red symbol is Wanda, mixed into that whole cloud mess on the other side of the ocean. It's also kind of hard to notice the yellow on the edge of a beach abiout to jump into the Eastern Pacific that is at 0% chances in the Atlantic.


But if you move on over to the Eastern Pacific part of the NHC Main Pages you will see our little X is healthier and is being given 30% chances of development in there. Actually another yellow circle pops up there on the 5 day as seen below.



This has really been the story of the year on many levels and will be researched by many to see why the East Pacific received so many of the low, westbound waves that normally potentially dangerous SW Caribbean  storms that gave them a longer season than normal. And, when I say that I mean normally as the Atlantic goes into high gear the East Pac slows down, there's a normal ebb and flow of energy and yet this year the seedlings for the dangerous SW Caribbean Storms all slid across the isthmus into the Pacific. 


In general the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season was either STORMY WILD or soooo slow. It had a sputtering sort of nature where everything formed in groups and you can see that by the graphic above. June and early July were busy, whereas later in July and August it was not. Late August and September were busy, though many were "shorties" that barely lasted yet did pump up the number of actual storms we had even if most of you cannot remember their name. Since the beginning of August it's been quiet.  Note if you take away all the blue dots and only look at the orange dashes you'll see we really didn't have such a busy season. It's really a matter of prespective. Quality over quantity and in this case we lucked out as Larry and his friend Sam both stayed out in the Atlantic putting on a colorful show on the satelitte imagery but not thrashing our beaches or drowning out cities so for that we are grateful.  It reminds me a lot of how morse code works, dot, dot, dot, dash, dot, dot ...well you get that if you ever learned Morse Code which I did but I do not really remember; a cute neighbor boy was involved who wanted to ran cables from our houses to each other so we could "talk" when we were young. (He was probably a boy scout now that I think about it)

I digress... because there really isn't much to talk about. If I go to Windy.com I'm prone to watch the images for cold weather and who is going to get some snow.


Why does the blue (really cold air)
stop at the Mason Dixie?
Kentucky gets it but not Tennessee?
Just odd things always amaze me on graphics like this.

But winter is coming.
Tropical storms are not.

So have a great day.
Malls have Christmas decorations up...
.... no real crowds where I live.
But the msuic is nice.

TJ Maxx is a winter wonderful.
Pink Flamingoes are in storage.

It's the sign of the times!!

Not proofing........
....I have a headache.
Wish I was in Key West this morning!
Sweet Tropical Dreams,
Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps... Where are you spending the holidays? 
Thanksgiving blends into Chanukah (early) this year.
Christmas... flows into New Years Eve.
I know... we haven't even eaten turkey yet for Thanksgiving.
2021 has been on Zoom Zoom time.......so do you have a clue?

Christmas Island - Jimmy Buffett.wmv By the way the locals used to call the small island to the West of Key West, but they developed it and renamed it Sunset Island. But it's really a place...........there's also another one, we have lots of names locals use for things down on the rock. 














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Friday, June 04, 2021

Will a Major Hurricane Hit the Miami Broward WPB Area This Year? I Hope Not... But it Could They Are Overdue for the EYE of a Hurricane.

 


This is a map made by Brian McNoldy

He's excellent to follow.
If you live in South Florida....
...or anywhere during the Hurricane Season.

While things are quiet and not much is going on I'm trying to put links to sites to use and people to follow on social media who are excellent sources of reliable information. In his case, he is prone to unique, original ways of presenting valuable material that helps you understand better some of the finer points of a particular situation be it a current set up or historical information.   If you were playing a paint online game you'd be trying to figure out what color line to draw across the Miami to West Palm Beach metropolitan area and that's concerning as that area is overdue for such a hurricane.  Many in Miami and the Ft. Lauderdale area would argue that and point to all the trees down and their roof damage from Hurricane Irma in 2017 and that's because they fail to remember they did not get the EYE of Irma nor the brunt of it's power, they had all that damage from a brush with Irma that made landfall in the Florida Keys but due to it's immense size delivered a wicked punch to North Miami Beach, Walnut Creek and other places far to the North and East of where Irma made landfall. A similar smaller storm would not have impacted the Miami area if it moved quickly through Marathon in the Florida Keys so remember with hurricanes not only strength but size matters! 



Also what is worth remembering is that the general Miami area was in the Cone often for both Irma and Dorian and Matthew scared Miamians greatly even if the cone showed it could stay offshore. The NHC did a good job with those hurricanes and they did veer away from a visit to Miami. This is a very DANGEROUS set up as what happens after these sort of brushes with danger is that people begin to believe Miami is safe and all the hurricanes will veer way from the coast as Dorian and Matthew did but many such as the 1926 and 1928 Hurricanes did not, nor did Betsy, Katrina nor Andrew that made a due West beeline for Miami and never took the road that David did in 1979 when it took aim at Miami and then veered up the coast. Why is this important? I knew many people in Miami during Andrew that refused to believe that Andrew would not do what David did and it would go somewhere else. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_David similar but made landfall along the N Central coastline.


Miami is a city that always has new people who have moved into the area and never experienced a Hurricane. Old times tell them about Donna and Betsy and Andrew and they think they will be fine, they will not be if a Major Hurricane makes landfall at Hollywood Beach or Aventura just North of Miami but all part of the same metropolitan area demographically and otherwise. Also we have a huge transitory population of people who are they college students or employed in the HUGE hotels and restaurant business that makes up a giant slice of the Miami economy!



Sadly Andrew taught me that the worst case scenario can and does happen. For years I kept this poster in my living room as a reminder that the worst case scenario can play out and a major hurricane can and will make a landfall in your living room if you live in Florida long enough.  Note that also goes for Savannah, Jacksonville and Tampa! 


Orange ... high pressure. 
H for Huge High.
A nice wave over Africa... 

There's online chatter on something in 10 days or so...
.. maybe down in the Caribbean headed North.
Or by the Yucatan.... or out in the Atlantic.
Models keep showing long term possibilities.
But nothing expected to form for the next 5 days.
Use this time wisely for Hurricane Preparation.
This IS Hurricane Season.

June Hurricanes have happened making landfall...
... up from the Carib towards Florida.


Currently the huge High Pressure is in place, so use this time wisely. As I said in a previous blog, my friend Sharon was sure we would get a hurricane in the very dead summer of 1992 when the first named storm didn't show up until Mid August named Andrew. Sharon rinsed out bottles of Publix Soda and filled them up with tap water and stored them away and bought inexpensive bottled water when on sale. When Andrew changed course for Miami, as she thought it would do as she didn't trust that weak cold front in August, she had close to 80 bottles of water stored in her garage to use for drinking or washing. After Hurricane Andrew on Miami Beach far from the eye but getting strong impressive winds, we had no water for a long time and we had no electric even longer and we had no cable to watch TWC until late November. 

Be like Sharon, don't be that guy at Publix buying perishable deli and ice cream because you are sure this is just a big scare and the next big Major Hurricane aiming for Miami will turn away and crash into South Carolina as Matthew did......  Prepare now! Buy canned food, water, non-perishable food and stock up on your medications. Don't be that person left at Publix who went too late and is standing at the empty aisles staring at cans of oysters and sardines. 

Thanks for your patience while I was on vacation in Miami visiting my family and attending a wedding for Sharon's son. It was a long road trip after a few days in Charlotte for business before the trip to Miami, a stop on the way back in Savannah and I'm finally back in Raleigh. I learned years back from friends of mine who worked at the NHC that the best time to usually take a vacation is actually early June, before the season ramps up :) Learn from the best ... 

I should be updating every day from now on so follow me as we cruise into the height of the Hurricane Season when SAL begins to let go of his dusty hold on the Atlantic and the Huge High Pressure suddenly fades away and yellow circles pop up South of Cuba or off the coast of Florida in the Bahamas and as always near the Yucatan. 

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps. A dirty little secret is that Miami Beach was trashed by Hurricane Andrew, all the street signs, store awnings and often AC units on condos crashed to the ground below. Massive Ficus Trees were uprooted with most of the yard, pine trees on Pine Tree Drive fell onto homes. My neighbors roof on Flamingo Drive took flight and landed in tact in the back yard of a house on Pine Tree Drive near 41st Street. Bits and pieces of plastic from the Dry Cleaners, the Used Bookstore and Epicure then on Arthur Godfrey Road landed all across my parent's house on 37th and Royal Palm Avenue. My neighbor next door, a photographer who was working for Newsweek got back from covering Homestead and asked what happened on Miami Beach as it wasn't mentioned in the news. As Andrew approached Miami, just before it made that itsy bitsy dip to the South that saved most of downtown Miami... it's approaching wind and wild surf took aim on Miami Beach. I'm grateful that despite all that wild damage (we had no Traffic Lights on 41st Street for half a year, they all were gone with the wind) we were spared the horrific damage the eye did in Homestead. So while thinking on all the debris you had from Irma remember it made landfall near Big Pine Key NOT in Miami nor Hollywood Florida! Prepare now! Use this "quiet" time wisely!!

All the damage in the old blog below was from Miami Beach. They hired people fast to clean it up and laid low and tried to stay out of the news and to get back up and running for the 1992/93 Tourist Season. They were not as lucky in 1926... but that's another blog.


Yes most buildings were "fine" but everything else went whoosh with the wind... and that beautiful Polynesian style roof some friend of mine had... small square houses do best in a hurricane in Florida... no power for weeks, no cable for months... debris sat until late October after the Andrew Hurricane.









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Thursday, June 25, 2020

Tropics Thursday. Quiet Now But Is Trouble Waiting In The Wings? What's Your Favorite Hurricane Movie? Summer Here and Everyone Wants to Go Somewhere But Where?




NHC sasy they see nothing.
I see convection in GOM
And a weak stalled out front.
That gave it up to the huge High.
And I see a stronger wave off of Africa.
Earthnull below.


Loop below.

hiatlsat_None_anim.gif (768×496)


Cliff notes version.


New wave off Africa may be the one that models show juicing up the atmosphere and possibly developing. Or that moisture just flows up from the Caribbean. Where does the High move, go or hold up tells the story if we get something and where we get something. GFS keeps aiming at the GOM beaches but only time will tell. Strong high, for now Florida looks safe but looks can be deceiving.

Okay that is the end of the real Tropical Update, the rest you can enjoy if you'd like to read and enjoy the links, thoughts and the way my messy mind works.

This is going to be a short blog today because there's not much to say and I want to do a short blog for my friends who enjoy shorter vs longer. So I figured for the bored, creative types going out of their mind who chose not to take trips and go places maybe I could find something for yu to do, or you to do with yout kids or maybe you pooch likes watching you color. It wasn't easy. First I put "Mandelas Hurricane" into my browser and it offered me a book on Nelson Mandela. Obviously Google and I were not on the same page. Good book by the way, read it but not the type of Mandela I wanted.  Oh and when I said "short' I meant I was going to write more than talk tropics and show mutliple models you can see elsewhere. I really meant "Old School BobbiStorm" and obviously I have a problem spelling that word more than Mike does Spaghetti... really it's a thing.

https://www.amazon.com/Eye-Hurricane-Path-Darkness-Freedom/dp/1613748159

But this shows hows much the word Hurricane and the concept of being in the eye of a hurricane is burned into our brain and our consciousness as a metaphor for a trial, a tribulation and something we learn from after the storm has moved on and that's why she said in Twister "when you said you chased Tornadoes I thought it was a methaphor" which is a great line but my experience on Google today shows the reality of why she made that statement. She was also a therapist and they think different from you and me, analyzing everything we say, do and even our body language.

So here was an example of my trip through Google this morning and I do mean that metaphorically. I'm obviously in the mood for a trip but where and when and for how long remains the question and in my neck of the woods Covid cases are on the rise climbing high, not declining so I may have to take a visual trip.

Would love to track a hurricane and would love to be in a hurricane because that's who I am, if you thought I liked Fair Weather you are obvisouly reading the wrong blog. Some people want a hurricane to escape from life and others want it to knock down and blow away their school, or their kid's school (I have a friend who actually wished that all the time) and some want to stand outside in the storm then watch it get quiet and see the clouds disappear and enjoy every single moment of quiet staring at the wonder of it all yet knowing the back side of the storm will reappear and slap you in the face faster than you could ever imagine. It's awesome. And, as much as I love the eye I really love the bands, the bands of rain and watching things go flying in the wind and there is a sense of awe and wonder that can't be explained to someone who doesn't understand that. Some go to sleep, some hide in a closet and others stand there staring in wonder. Which one are you?

Note the progression of images as Google tried to find to read my mind but obviously not too many people want to color in a mandela of a hurricane and there might be a good product to make and sell online or not. Or just make your own or watch Twister and there really is a huge lack of really good hurricane movies. I mean how many times can you watch Key Largo? Actually, I'm going to watch a movie today my ex-husband recommended about Cuba and Florida as he said he thought of me and knew I'd love it so that's on my To Do List.

The trailer is below. The images of my trip around Google are also below. I'll update if and when some thing happens today. It's gonna rain in Raleigh and our temperatures are forecast to be lower so maybe I'll just sit and watch the rain from my balcony or take a walk or whatever.

Have a wonderful day. I'll be back sooner I think than many realize as the EPAC is trying hard to produce a cyclone. This is like watching someone give birth in slow motion, it ain't pretty. And yet the Atlantic with it's Dust Storm will probably produce something sooner rather than later so I just showed the 2 day because I'm a believer that Mother Nature can't wait to throw something else at us.


okay nice but no tho that bottom left one is pretty


okay that was better we got weather at least.


Oh wait I think Google got it!


Success tho really that's a boring Mandela 
Or you can color it interesting.
Kind of like life.


Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.



or



Which one do you want to watch? Do you have a favorite Hurricane Movie? Hurricane movie about hurricanes not life or boxing or well you get the idea. Because we don't metaphorically chase hurricanes in truth we chase them or hide from them. Which are you?




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Monday, June 08, 2020

Cristobal a Stormy Story Still Unfolding. Where's Dolly? Will Dolly Be a Deja Vu Storm in GOM? African Waves.... A Look at Hurricane History. Matthew, Florence, Sandy and the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane. Miami Beach History & Architecture




Cristobal inland and still traveling.
Has a passport to Canada...
..and no govt official can keep him out.

I'll do an End Game Post on Cristobal....
...when it's oveer. 
Because the story is far from over.

As for the Tropics today...
..what are we looking at?
Tropical Possibilities.


That's high latitude trouible for June.
June too soon but is it in 2020?
Below is the SW Carib.
Models show a Deja Vu storm forming...
...and moving up into the GOM AGAIN.
Is that Dolly? 
Say it ain't Deja Vu Dolly?


Time will tell.

In motion below.





Yes there is in area the Atlantic there is a yellow area.
NHC walking back it's chances so ...
....not gonna talk on it now.

But further out in the Atlantic is a Wave off Africa.
A wave departing Africa higher up...
..where they are supposed to be.
Where they need to be to develop.
5 degrees is too far South.
10 degrees and we have possibilities.

We will talk on that later.
Today I'm looking back a bit at history.
Why????
Because history repeats.
And we learn from history!

These images from Tropical Storm Cristobal isnpired today's Hurricane History part of the blog.

Currently Cristobal is moving up through the center of the Country, still in the South but on his way Northbound carrying with it the potential for severe weather and localized flooding. Honestly, that has been it's legacy as it's distant weather pounded Central Florida with thunderstorms and tornadoes and localized flooding in the delta regions of Louisiana along the barrier islands of Mississippi. People seem surprised because it was "only a Tropical Storm" and a pretty minimal one intensity wise but a wet, tropical storm can carry with it a whole lot of water.


Steve means lousy as in intensity.
But in watery misery for those cleaning up...
...it was a messy, crappy storm.
Not intense, but size wise huge and wet.


That's sand not sea foam.

I saw this picture from post Tropical Storm Cristobal coverage and it amazed me that people were amazed that this could or would happen. If you live in a beach town and the tropical wind brings in a tropical storm or hurricane it's common to have your streets near the beach covered in sand; adding especially if the storm has come a long ways to your door to deliver you that sand. It's often not how intense a hurricane is, but on the contrary, how far it has traveled to get to your destination.



Sand covered the boardwalk in Long Beach, NY after Sandy a once Major Hurricane going extratropical tore up the boardwalk and flooded homes, businesses and left a mess after traveling a long distance from the Deep Caribbean.



You have to think of a hurricane as a living breathing thing, that has traveled huge distances carrying with it a dome of water and moving endlessly until it can't travel anymore on the ocean and then it rams itself up onto your door like a wrecking ball. A storm such as Matthew or Florence will do more water damage than a storm that blows up immediately and makes landfall suddenly. Again, I said "water damage" vs strong winds or severe weather. Matthew made landfall as a Caegory 1 Hurricane in South Carolina as it's explosive water footprint stomped far inland into North Carolina a mere ghosts of it's intensity when it churned off the coast of South America as a Major Hurricane. The water pushed inland, far inland filling up every river basin in North Carolina covering farms, homes and towns as it flung itself onto land unable to make that turn away as the Hurricane Center had often predicted earlier that it would before going out to sea. Matthew's wet legacy just kept on coming, like a big, huge train unable to stop on a dime the way a fast sports car would be able to and that is common in such hurricanes. Nothing new under the Tropical Sun as they say.

Hurricane Florence, two years later, drenched the same region of the Carolinas with flooding rains and tremendous water damage as a mere shadow of itself, no longer a Cat 3 or 4 or 5 hurricane but one filled with rain, water and endless misery.

Matthew's track below.
Quite the traveler.


A wave that developed just before the Islands.
Sat on just off coast of South America...
...and had no problems with land interaction.

Below is Florence.
The Hurricane that refused to die.
A fish storm that kept swimming.
All the way across the ocean.


After being an intense Major Hurricane.
It reached it's destination as a shadow of itself.
And yet parts of the Carolinas are still cleaning up from it.


Old picture of Collins Avenue covered in sand.

Beware those long traveling storms.
Almost a hundred years earlier.. 
The 1926 Great Miami Hurricane shown below.


Obviously this started from a wave off of Africa.
Ship reports showed there was a West Indies Cyclone moving WNW.
That's what they called it then...
 And it slammed into Miami as a strong Category 4 hurricane.
And aside from the intense winds, it was a very wet hurricacne.
The streets flooded, sand covered Miami Beach.
From the Ocean to the Bay it was covered with sand.
Locals had to dig out their Model T Fords.


Wait for it to load, it's worth it ... because nothing like a real obituary of a hero of Miami beach.

A mere snippet of the story...



Rose Weiss, the "Mother of Miami Beach" attained that fame after practically single handledly forcing the dazed and confused survivors of the hurricane on Miami Beach to get out there and start cleaning the sand off the streets and cleaning up the mess the hurricane made. Rose walked up to Lincoln Road and into the offices of Carl Fisher where people had gathered, numb, in shock at the horrendous damage to their beautiful paradise and bullied everyone into getting out there and cleaning it up insisting Miami Beach would be better than it had been before. And, Rosie who grew up as child on Miami Beach was prophetic on that one as I don't even think that Carl Fisher could imagine how amazing Miami Beach would be in 2020.

Rose Weiss believed in Miami Beach, she knew it when it looked like this below from 1925 and it's still going strong. Buildings getting bigger, higher and really I love it but too many people for a mere mangrove Island in the Bay.


That's up near the Deauville.
A narrow part of the beach.
A place where the ocean meets the bay often...
...in a real hurricane!




Anyone who has ever driven to Miami Beach...
...across the Julia Tuttle Causeway knows this building.

I worked in that building.
I practically lived in that building at times.
It's called the Giller Building.
My kid's pediatrician was in that building.
I once had an After Prom Party there.. really.
My son briefly had an office there but that's a movie.
Giller and Giller Architects had offices in their building.
A family that survived the 1926 Hurricane...
.... how I don't really know. 
Sounds impossible but true.
And then he helped design a city.
Miami Beach was a paradise once again.


The water covered Miami Beach.
The raging ocean covered Miami Beach.
People survived, Norman Giller survived!
Went on to become an Architect....
.... that designed the future Miami Beach.

Understand, the people who survived the hurricane survived it by climbing up above the first floor of apartment buildings and watching as the water met the bay and covered all of South Beach. To this day it amazes me anyone survived that especially when you consider there were waves and storm surge as the waters were not just high but calm, they were a raging ocean. I interviewed a friend of my Grandfather who as a young boy remembers climbing up to the 3rd floor of an apartment building on 3rd Street at the tip of South Beach and watching waves battering the building. He remembered his father leaving the building to walk over to the services for Yom Kippur and having to come back because "there was so much rain the streets were flooding" but it wasn't flooding from the rain but the incoming storm surge of a strong Category 4 hurricane that covered the whole of Miami Beach and yet somehow, miraculously I'd add, some people survived while others died. Many died during the eye when they tried to make their way back to the mainland and the back side of the hurricane swept them off the causeway to a watery grave. Sounds melodramatic but very true. The 1926 Miami Hurricane is called that because it was indeed the real Miami Hurricane as Andrew made landfall further to the South sparing Downtown Miami from a disaster one cannot even imagine.

But Hurricane Betsy covered Miami Beach with sand also as did Andrew and many other storms over time. Miami Beach is basically a barrier island that was just a spit of land covered by mangroves that Miami people rowed over to in their boats for a picnic on Sunday before rowing back before dark while admiring dolphins and manatees in the water that was once crystal clear all the way to the bottom. Oh what a time it was... 

Look at it now!
High up above Lincoln Road.
Where my father had offices.
Where my son the architect loves to hang out.



Me, standing on top of the world of Miami Beach.


You can take the girl out of Miami Beach...
...but you can't take Miami Beach out of the girl.
You know why?
I got the sand in my toes ;)

Have a wonderful day.
When I go long on the Miami Hurricane...
...know tropical waves are rolling off of Africa.
And I see hurricanes on the horizon.

So prepare, do what you need to do.
And we will follow them step by step.
Advisory by advisory.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Know that Twitter is mostly weather.
Instagram is weather and anything I love.
Don't say I didn't warn you,














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Monday, June 01, 2020

Tropical Depression 3 Forms Forecast to Develop into Cristobal. Where Does It Go? All Depends on Timing.

Tropical Depression 3 Forms.


Expected to become Cristobal.
Slow Mover in the short term.
As per NHC new forecast cone.



Cristoball be sipping Cafecito and working out.
Check out that form...
Early signs of banding.
We may end up with a Hurricane...
...but for now let's talk Tropical Storm
They may go with TD first.


Note the placement of the X
when looking at the Earthnull below.


93L has moved out over water.
Will we get an upgrade at 5 PM?
Possibly.
Stay tuned.
Check back often!

Keep reading if you haven't already.
Well this is about as close to "go for liftoff" as we get.


This is an image of the tropics today.
June 1st, 2020.
So busy we are looking for the C storm to form.

hiatlsat_None_anim.gif (768×496)

I want you to see the wide picture.
Something not being watched in Mid Atlantic.
Waves coming off of Africa.
And Invest 93L working it's way off the Yucatan.

Below is my fast CliffNotes version.
My longer discussion is below if you've got the time.



The video above shows my thinking currently on Invest 93 forecast by many to be Tropical Storm Cristobal down the tropical road; NHC at 8 am on the First Day of the Hurricane Season has given it a healthy, red 80% circle. I'm gonna leave the models to the Model Man that being Mike from www.spaghettimodels.com as he's good at getting that info out in a visual way. Next some discussion on the tropics today below. And, later today I'm posting a stand alone blog on the 2020 Hurricane Season but as I learned in Journalism 101 what is happening now is the news and takes precedence over a general public interest story.


Models do their generally Northbound movement.
Some then begin to veer off to the left or right.
Why is that?
Because it hasn't formed yet.
A grid Mike put up on Twitter.
Note the difference in TIMING
not just LANDFALL.



I don't usually quote Levi Cowan.
I respect him tremendously.
But his graphic shows what's in my mind.
To be fair in all our minds.
We are watching to see 93L make splashdown.


Until it does and until it forms and begins swimming.
Lots of options are on the table.

And I want you to remember this system has two parts.
This is a large envelope of mositure...
...circulating in a large complex 
We are tracking the part that gets into the GOM


Timing evolves in real time as this evolves.
That's true.
Models make guesses. 
I'll update model discussion later today.
Trying to keep this simple.




2 model images on www.windy.com
Know it always defaults to the Euro.
You can change settings and play with it.
It's a fabulous site and I use that word rarely.


EURO takes it into Texas.
A big swirl over Texas.
Much rain over Texas.
Yes, I know Texans hate to hear that.
When I say Texas I mean Houston area...
...in this particular case.
And what begins in Houston doesn't stay there.
It flows with the atmosphere.
I'm worried on the some what dead steering currents.


GFS shows a different evolution on THIS one run.
Pulls moisture further East.


And depending on what FORM this takes....
A sleek, small Tropical Storm 
OR
A huge, juggernaut Subtropical?
OR
A hurricane? Let's wait and see on that.

I will update this blog on 93L later today as models come in and Invest 93L puts it's feet in the water and it's toes in the sand and the next set of models come in...

And, I will put out a long Part 2 2020 Hurricane Season Forecast with my own thoughts, just mine though I know from speaking to a few of the better mets around here many have some of those same years in mind when thinking on this current Hurricane Season? Why? Not because we copy each other but because we are all looking at the same data and the same history and coming up with similar ideas where this hurricane season is going but again it evolves in real time.

Prepare NOW.
And not going political but adding in here that with the current unrest and protests that have turned violent in some places curfews are going into place. Seriously 2020 just seems like the year of Stay Home Stay Safe and take a Staycation for this Summer. If curfews are in place, check out your local information as it's totally possible some will limit portable gas sales. I haven't checked into the details yet but someone told me it would be wise to keep some extra gas around in a safe way if this situation may impact you. Yesterday we went out for the day to my favorite vacation spot in Raleigh and hung out at the Farmers Market. Colorful, fun, friendly and beach music playing while shoppers were socially distancing with colorful playful masks and friendly from a distance. I bought bright sunflowers in a mixed bouquet one almost the size of my head. I got a huge freshly made orange juice with berries and cherries thrown in and stopped at Ulta that was open for the first time and quickly bought a few things in case the store has to close again or is targeted by what has become looting riots vs a peaceful protest of the murder of George Floyd. Some stores in some places are going to close to the public again to try and protect their businesses and that could make it hard to find some products because to be honest I saw a lady grab the last of the 90 roll toilet paper and run out of the Target in Minnesota while others grabbed large screen TVs. I suppose we all have our own priorities in a Pandemic during a Protest.... I bring it up because what happens if that happens in Houston and then they close the Target you shop in because of the protest/looting and not because of Covid?

Video link of that bowling scenario if you can't picture it in your creative heads.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQnphc6qeNs

There's a three prong problem here to work out and it's best to SHOP EARLY and STOCK UP for the Hurricane Seasson because Mother Nature don't care about protests or pandemics Mother Nature conjures up these storms and lets them rolle like a award winning bowler; except she's rolling a hurricane towards you not a bowling ball.

Stay tuned. Stay safe.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps...figure we could all use some "silly" right about now.





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