A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Monday, December 28, 2020
Wintertime... Waiting on Snow.... Winter Weather Out West... Up North. The South is Waiting Impatiently. New Years Day Around the Corner!
Winter maps from Spaghetti Models above..
Winter weather seems to be staying Up North.
That's what my Grandma Mary called it...
"Up North" as in "it gets cold up there..."
It's cold here but no snow.
Winter weather spattered about out West.
Storms coming in from the Pacific.
Parading their way towards New Year's Day.
Rain out there is not necessarily good.
I know you may not care about LA but I do.
Lived there long enough to "feel it" still inside.
California. Carolina.
What's a few consonants?
Honestly I'm crazy about naked trees.
Love seeing their structure...
...without all those leaves.
They cast unique shadows.
What can I say?
We are all different.
Those shadows look like graffiti ...
...drawn on carefully.
But if you don't stop to enjoy it...
...you'll miss it when it's gone!
I want snow.
I'm getting cold dry air.
And then up from the South comes warmer air.
Rainfall that turns snowy in New England.
As the systems ride up the coast.
I want Polar Air.
I'd also like my packages I mailed to arrive.
Over 2 weeks ago still missing in action.
A few showed up.
Amazon gets it there in 2 days.
The Post Office takes more than 2 weeks?
What's up with that??
Yes, it's been a while since I blogged.. I didn't realize how long it had been since I last blogged as I took my seasonal break from daily blogging. Being honest, this time of year I dream of snow and give thanks daily for cool weather, blue skies and fresh air. Raleigh this time of year is awesome. Then again Miami this time of year is the time of year people there wait for basically all year.
At some point I know I made the transformation to a Carolina girl when I realized I miss Pawley's Island more than I do Key West. I still love Key West, but I love driving down to the tip of Pawley's Island, through the marsh, down the road as if I am seriously coming home. I actually have ancestors who lived there, go figure... Maybe some genetic memory? Who knows what our genetic memories remember? Mind must have remembered snow because this Miami girl loves it.
Okay true confessions I love weather... I love a change in the scenery and life happening vs stagnant weather that stays the same forever. Fair Weather is only nice for a few days before you long for something to happen. If you didn't long for something meteorological to happen you obviously wouldn't be here.
I'll be updating more often so check back often and we are very close to moving on into 2021!
Stay tuned!!
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Weather mostly on Twitter and whatever on Instagram.
Ps ...Enjoy.... cause I grew up in California in the 80s! Ask Facebook, it must be true!! ;)
What happens when the Polar Vortex shows up for the party?
Think about it...
...guessing it rides the parade of fronts like a King!
I don't want to scare anyone but if the Winter of 2020-21 is anything like the hurricane season was of 2020 it should deliver more headlines and a winter to remember. Models, for what they are worth, have been hinting at "yawn" and "maybe" and weather people online are either hyping or crying but in truth it evolves in real time just like hurricane season; trends and patterns begin to evolve over time. The trend is your friend when trying to discern a pattern to predict what will happen down the wintry road.
Winter Storm Gail is Quite a Winter Gale - Across a Good Part of the US - From Florida to New England
Nice signature.
Strong tropical moisture feed...
Winter wind swooping down.
Merging together.
Socking it to the Mid Atlantic and NE.
It's raining here in Raleigh.
Missed the wintry precipitation I adore by...
... like two counties over.
Up the coast snow and ice is moving in...
But down in Florida....
...a front is moving through.
Rain and strong storms.
I'm not gonna post tons of pics of snow falling across the Northeast but maybe later I will post a few online. I have kids up there waiting, waiting for the snow to start to fall. I'm watching it on TWC in the background, kind of on mute and watching it do it's thing even though it deprived me of a taste of winter weather. In reality I love this time of year when you get to watch how fronts evolve in real time vs the models and you get a feel for what may be coming down the road. What did the models miss? What did they sniff out? Did they over perform or under perform? Did the front dive deeper? How strong was the winter push and how long did the system stick around? Watching a pattern set up that should last for at least a month or two as we move deeper into December and edge closer to January.
The Euro above for December 24th...
The GFS below for December 24th!
We are caught in a pattern of fronts and we are waiting for real Arctic Air to join the party.
A parade of cold fronts. Like the Rose Bowl Parade for us.
Stay tuned...
... you can't stop a train or Mother Nature!
So follow along and enjoy the show. I hope you get the weather you wish for the most.
I Want Snow for Chanukah. Luckily it's 8 Days So There's Always a Chance... Right? On Models Yeah... Real Life Ummn Who Knows.
Frosty Freezing Cold Line...
...after sunrise it warms up fast in Raleigh.
Lots of maps these days.
The Northern Lights might make an appearance.
If there are no clouds and you are in the right spot
That's where the Northern Lights might be seen tonight!
Some maps are more generous than others.
Now they say possibly North Carolina tonight.
I'll look late at night but not...
...chasing them.
It's brighter here than you'd think.
Not Miami but pretty bright.
I'll definitely be watching online tho..
Google your location and "Northern Lights"
Find out your chances...
...give a look up into the sky.
I also watch the Weather Apps.
Sometimes before I go to sleep...
To my surprise late last night there was a snowflake.
A HUGE snowflake for NEXT Saturday!
And a small one the night on Friday.
I thought "yeah but will you love me tomorrow??"
I went to sleep.
And as expected "poof" it's gone.
No Snowflake!
Yes it's that time of year when I begin obsessively checking Apps for "snow" even though I don't hold much by Weather Apps, especially in the 10 day forecast, I still can't help checking to see if there's a snowflake because well you know as long as there's a chance ;) Seriously, this is how I interpret the App thing ... if I get two consecutive snowflakes six hours apart then I start checking models obsessively vs glancing at them and trying not to look or believe because the promise of snow is always on the 9th of 10th day. Ever notice that? It doesn't magically appear on the 5th day or the 7th but just out of reach like a carrot beckoning the horse to come back real soon and click again. As I mentioned in a recent post the models have been very inconsistent still with either the Euro or the GFS jumping on board and the other totally ignoring it; each run varies greatly and that's because it's December and not late in January. Yet winter dreams spring eternal.......so I do check now and then. And I do watch models but I live by the Water Vapor loop and other satellite imagery and those weather experts who are almost always right for my location. Weather is location oriented, there could be a snow storm but we could get a dusting and Durham up the road got over a foot from the same surprise December snow storm a few years back.
What do the satellites show today? Winter in our part of the world and odd swirls in the Atlantic that if it was August might have gotten named this year but it's December yet the NHC is always watching and so am I. But, I'm watching with the hope of snow not a rare December tropical entity. It does happen sometimes but only on the most rare occasions.
Why are models so unreliable in the long term? Because every inch, every bit of moisture extrapolated over time has a chance to be changed and impacted by so many intangibles. The successful launch of the rocket yesterday was suddenly not so successful because it missed it's landing by the smallest amount of space because of a complicated reason I'm not going into but "BOOM!" and it was like the 4th of July in December. Yet, Elon Musk had said it was realistic that it might not land properly actually giving a perfect landing a low chance (I think one in three) and he reiterated that he always learns from these failures and that's part of learning process. Sounds good but it would have been more successful had the rocket that was worth a fortune not gone up in flames, but then again knowledge is worth a fortune and we hopefully learn from our mistakes. I've learned not to trust models or Apps beyond the 3 day regarding snow in my part of North Carolina and while I may look up into the dark sky for a sign of color from the Northern Lights... I have very low expectations!
Water Vapor...
In other news.
Cranky has left the room!
That's sad. People are talking.
Often many people read Twitter and never Tweet.
(Can you imagine??? True too!!)
But his voice is missed as he's a voice worth listening to...
Very few who can write like that and understand patterns.
Be they historic patterns or a seasonal one that shows up.
It's popular to "talk models" these days.
But they change every six hours or so...
it's like a dog chasing the the Amazon Truck!
My discussion on the Snowy App gone poof shows that well...
There are few people I really trust long range.
He is one of them.
One thing I do know for sure...
...it's Chanukah tonight!!
@bobbistorm on Instagram.
One of the things I have come to love in North Carolina is the way the light plays out all day in subtle ways as it moves with the location of the sun illuminating some different part of my backyard. It hits the high part of the Pine Trees as it begins to set and in the early morning it lights up lower areas that disappear as soon as the sun is overhead. It's a weather ballet of darkness and light that goes on all day but only if you notice and pay attention at the right moment. Looks like a menorah lite up and yes only those slats were illuminatated so it's my reminder to finish decorating the house and making sure I have everything for tonight's dinner. If all goes well I'm making chicken schnitzel because you fry it in oil... and that's why we make "latkes" (potato pancakes) and eat an inordinate amount of donuts and oh we snack on those little chocolate coins ;) that cheap parents give you instead of real money... just kidding we got both... because my mother loved chocolate!
Happy Chanukah! May your life be lit up with whatever you love the most be it love from your favorite people, family, weather or even a geological treasure!
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Twitter mostly weather but less so during the "off season" meaning not the hurricane season.
Instagram ...whatever. Light up the darkness with acts of goodness and kindness and love!
Winter 2020-2021 Showing Up as Temperatures Drop, Snow Flakes Fall in Raleigh and We Watch Models for Winter Weather.
Yes, it snowed in Raleigh.
Very briefly, but long enough for a taste.
Literally ... catching snowflakes on their tongues.
He is great to follow, his work is excellent.
He always makes Raleigh look magical.
I was over the top yesterday watching snow falling.
However briefly...
...a taste of things to come.
Everyone's talking about winter and snow, it's the hottest topic on Weather Twitter now that those monoliths stopped popping up. Mike has his very tropical site turned over to a site filled with Weather Links and of course Spaghetti Models. He's been known to hit the road and drive up to where the snow is falling and if you want to know where it might fall ... follow Mike!
Snow actually on the ground vs flakes falling and melting.
Honestly, this is where it all gets funky model wise as we move deeper into December and models differ vastly in the next week's forecast in the 6 to 7 day period and on the ten day they aren't on the same page. Meteorologists spend inordinately huge amounts of time debating how cold we will be, how warm we might be and where it will snow and when based on a wide array of different factors. Basically despite all the talk online and the analog years we really aren't sure and only time will tell what the winter of 2020 and 2021 will really be like as we zoom zoom zoom right through the 2020s.
He said "phase" and "polar westerlies" together.
Check him out on social media.
Subscribe to his weekly forecasts.
He's good to follow on Facebook.
Everyone, including Larry, knows I'm a huge fan of Larry Cosgrove who I became friends with on MySpace (in ways more fun than Facebook) and he's a true treasure for his wealth of meteorological knowledge, geographic expertise and musically he is always on the money. I remember he said some possible storm system would "Bomb out" and people disagreed and said "no way" because "the models" and it bombed out so much it had it actually had it's own weather graphics on TV and crazy nicknames that I can't remember specifically but it became one of those huge storms that slammed the East Coast and he was the lone voice that followed his own vast knowledge of patterns and experience and well I've been hooked on him as much as he is hooked on Panhandle Hookers... it's a weather term.
And if you look at the models on Windy.com.
You will see how not aligned they are down the road.
Above is the EURO for next Tuesday.
A week from now.
A strong system off the coast.
Carolinas, Virginia and Del Marva.
The GFS below for the same day sees nothing.
Hmnn.
If they can't agree on the 7 day....
How can we really know what this winter will hold?
Unless you have seen a hot dry wind blowing 50 mph.
You can't imagine.
It's my mental image of "hell" but doesn't happen often.
Flowers shrivel up before your eyes...
Palms sway and mountain sides explode in flames.
Actually a hard, difficult day for linemen.
I know I have been missing in action or rather inaction as the 2020 Hurricane Season has come to an abrupt and possibly final halt. Cold air descended down into the Deep South and even though we know it will warm up a bit soon it's not going back to what it was as it's December and that tends to rearrange our weather thoughts towards dreams of frozen precipitation vs the more tropical kind. As the very wonderful, but currently politically incorrect song goes... "Baby it's cold outside!" and that's actually joyous to me. I'm a winter baby born on the edge of the New Year in a year that was way too tropical and I love cooler days and winter nights and soft rosy gold sunrises that you can see between the barren branches of oak trees that in the summer obscure the sky. Raleigh is not so green in winter, yet our Carolina Pines punctuate the horizon with green flashes of color..
I went to the nearby Mall to return a few things early and check a few things out I might by online for presents to be sent to my kids around the country. It's a very quiet mall in the morning when it opens unlike Aventura Mall back "home" though home seems to be North Carolina these days. I will say the Apple Store had a long line, most everyone else that was in the Mall was trying to navigate around that socially distanced line but hey I guess even in Pandemics you got to do what you got to do but it's all in timing and hopefully you only bring home what you bought!
And, last but not least kudos to Mike for really taking a vacation and going up to the Great Smokey Mountains to see the early season snowfall. Most of his tropical fans also love to talk on snow or any other weather except for those who moved to Florida to get away from the snow ... who doesn't like to dream on snow? But Mike does more than "dream" and I love it. He's that type of father every kid wishes they would have. He once drove the kids and his wife up to the Florida Georgia border from Tampa a while back to see snow. Every kid who tells their father "it's going to snow near Tallahassee... " usually gets a "you can't miss school" and "I'm too busy" but not Mike. www.spaghettimodels.com
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
