Good Shabbos Isaac and the Tropical Wave :)

Watching the Wave still and now watching Isaac.

Short post today to say that Isaac stopped behaving erratically when the NHC changed their advisories to better reflect Isaac's desired movement. Funny, but true.

Wave still there somewhere and some models are funky.

We will see.... in a day or so how funky it can be.

As for me.. I am on vacation so I will post more next week and have time to play the tropics and other things.

Shabbos is in the oven baking..

Chicken with stuffing
Carrots, Potatoes and Sweet Peas for Zalmy
Gefilte Fish, Israeli Salads, Miriam's Cole Slaw and hearts of palm.
Very good red wine. Fresh baked Challah.
Little Chocolate Rugelah for dessert and breakfast.
Coffee, tea, Fiji Water :)

And... because a little baby cool front went through I have the windows open and the breeze is blowing on my back and a little bird outside is singing.

I hope and pray life is good to all of you today, tomorrow and always...

Love Bobbi
ps.........if I did anything this year to upset someone, piss them off, frustrate them or annoy them... please forgive me. Sometimes I get pissy or reactive .. such as calling some people "crazy person" or "crazy people" (they know who they are) and well... you know I am very forgiving and sometimes pathetically even miss you when you aren't pissing me off.. So, seeing how it's going into Yom Kippur and a wonderful lady from NE ... somewhere, Oklahoma or originally Rhode Island lol now living somewhere in parts unknown.... as they .. I mean she, she taught me... to ask forgiveness ... so I am.. so officially Bobbi asks anyone I upset or hurt their feelings to this year to please forgive me.

:)

Smiling, thank you Yaffah :)

Bobbi

Starbucks Morning :) & a Wave Worth Watching

This is the most incredible cup of coffee I have had in ages. It is more a coffee creation, a java masterpiece more than "just a cup of joe"

Tall Caramel Macchiado with an extra shot of expresso, whipped cream, light caramel and sugar free vanilla. Every sip is orgasmically delicious. It rolls across the tongue, around the taste buds, goes down smooth like Stevie Wonder Jazz songs on a tropical morning on South Beach. All the palms fronds gently swaying like the hips on all the pretty Spanish women walking down Lincoln Road looking for coffee and the El Herald. Miami at it's finest. Bright, breezy, delicious and smelling of freshly brewed Starbucks Coffee.

Welcome to my world as I pop a grape into my mouth and nibble on a piece of very good cheese.

And... wonders of wonders, there is a wave with possibilities of a path different from all the rest. One shot in the dark of a named storm that doesn't follow the pack. I don't even know if it will get a name. If it gets a "TD status" and a number I'll be thrilled, almost satisfied.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

Look at it hovering just east of the Islands. How can you bother looking at the latest Fish storm when that little system keeps spinning its hips around like that? Color, continuity, seperating from the long tail of Number 9.

Yeah, has a hard road ahead if it even tries to develop further. Diving trough in the Caribbean and Upper Level Lows all around spinning like they own the friggin Ocean. Then again, that trough may have dived as deep as it's gonna get and might pull back in time for this little baby to have some running room. I mean does that air want to make all the way to Venezuela or something?

Wow, just took another sip of coffee, wow... incredible... waiting for the water vapor loop to loop. Staring at my tall bottle of Acqua Panna with the lion staring back at me. I remember a ring someone had with a lion's head, who was that.. Do I care? From the Hills of Tuscany that bottle waits for me while I finish my macchiado and this loop finally loads.. watching here with me in real time baby... so read a long.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html

Okay, see this is the thing.. this wave has a possibility to lay low, go slow, build even slower and hang in long enough for the synoptics to rest up a bit after the passage of that frontal trough (don't you love that phrase? "frontal trough") and well not expecting big things of it but think it has a chance at some advisories at least and the possibilty of a few named storm days in it.

So.. keep watching, as it is a wave worth watching.

Otherwise.. been a good few days. Fun, different. Friends from Key West were in town with great taste in food and greater conversation. Went to Grill Time for the most amazing steak I have had in ages, grilled to perfection with Asian and Tropical Fusion something or other.. perfectly rare (cooked, but not too cooked) and lots of little salads to poke at and play with and delicous mashed potatoes, a bottle of very nice french, red wine and a chocolate heart shaped blintz thing where you poked the fork in and very perfect chocolate cream came pouring out across the plate. Good food, good friends, good discussion... nice little diagrams of storm tracks on place mats :) Nice! Put me in a good mood for a few days, then went with a friend to show him the Russian Grocery Store up in Sunny Isles and he bought me some caviar for a present for the Holidays.. Sukkos, coming fast around the corner after Yom Kippur. Fantasy Fest in the Keys coming shortly after that... part of me would love to go, I mean the Weather Department is being honored. Don't you think I should go? Come on... Any excuse is a good excuse.

Deb and Moe moving into the house for a few months with that dingo dog of his (Austrailian Shepherd with mixed dingo blood) and except for that trip to Italy they are taking... give me a good chance to hit the road a bit myself.. let Carmella watch the house and the kids.

So... we having any tropical trouble in October?

My roof is almost finished...

Redsox out of it. Need something to track besides cookie crumbs scattered across the web from someone and his friends...

Oh this coffee is good, brew me another cup of joe and listening to that Key West and Key Waisted song in my head :)

Except I'm not living in a drunken stupor and not eating a great grouper.. I'm drinking macchiados and nibbling on little cubes of cheese..

Starbucks Morning!


Check it out.. Grill Time.. great place, beautiful, sweet people and steaks grilled to perfection.. almost as good as Starbucks!

http://www.greatrestaurantsmag.com/KOSHER/restaurant_view/71/

Usually I get the Hurricane Rolls, of course :)

Monday Night Football.. New Orleans Saints WIN

Very cool game, great evening of football.

Atlanta got destroyed. Game was NOT FIXED.

Can't believe someone said that to me...

The place looked beautiful, back to normal, very green and big and life goes on..

Love it.. great game.

Nite.

Happy Jewish New Year to Everyone Out There...

I owe everyone here a big L'Shana Tova and best wishes for a happy, healthy New Year. Specifically... one where your soul mate is by your side and you should both know only happiness always. IF you are too young to have a soulmate... listen to your mommy and go to bed on time :)

Seriously, I sort of disappeared for a few days. I meant to blog something but well... the tropics meant to be busy too. The UM Hurricanes meant to win and the Redsox who I watch obsessively even if I don't talk about it here no more ... meant to win as well.

You know that old saying... about wanting to win and best intentions and something about Mice and Men and walking through the hall in high school and well.. don't kill the mice this year. Flowers for Algernon was sad.

Is this making any sense?

Hey, I just fasted this minor fast day Jews have the day after Rosh Hashanah. There are lots of reasons, you can google it on www.ou.org or www.chabad.org or www.aish.org or www.dayafterhighholydays.com but it's the most practical fast of the year because it gives you a chance to cut down on calories after all those sweet treats we Jews eat to have a Sweet and Good New Year :)

I was in a crummy mood the day before the holiday. An eclipse day. A day when money you don't have runs through your finger tips like the sands in the hour glass of lol.... okay, find a better illusion here.

I was in a crummy mood. It has been a hard month. I sort of can't wait to see it go. I bet there are prettier sailboats on the October Calendar and the Provence picture is prettier.

Started off the month with what still seems to be a mystery that shook my world upside down and back again. Takes me a good few weeks to convince myself that something doesn't bother me and then I can go on like nothing happened. Nothing except something. But, hey I have been through harder things. Not many. A few. So, I can as Fishing used to say pretend that Denial is a river in Egypt somewhere and the answers are locked up as tight as the Sphinx that guards the entrance to the tomb.

So... it's a new year. Out with the old, in with the new.

Let bygones be bygones. Practice forgiveness or forgetfulness and move on.

I can see the worn, torn paperback copy rolled up and stuffed in the back of his jeans. One wonders what he sees in his head and remembers still.

Secrets locked up tight.

Eating leftovers here. Still dining (giggling) on the leftovers from the past... holiday meals. Freshly made mushroom sauce for meatballs. Do you still like mushrooms on your pizza I wonder? Yellow rice with sauteed mushrooms and onions. Lincoln says all Jews start all recipes with fried onions. He would know.

The girls are eating. The boys are playing some video game somewhere and I am going to go join them to watch Monday Night Football.

I'll root for the Saints. I used to like their quarterback years ago... the one who played for UM. And, I'll give Leslie the Jewish Calendar from the Chabad of UF that they sent me... she'll appreciate it.

And... the sun will rise tomorrow, anew in the eastern sky.

A new day in an El Nino Year with no hurricanes threatening my world.

Reading Days of Awe, a book about a Cuban girl who was raised in America from distant Jewish blood. A really compelling story well written for a girl like me who forgets she is not Cuban.

And, I have a Matisyahu song stuck in my head and a Parrothead Soul.

Happy New Year! The Dolphins Won! Miracle of Miracles...

If I see anything tropical .. I'll blog but for now... I'm writing off what's left of the season. More chances of you know what happening than seeing a real hurricane in our side of the Ocean.

Be well... be happy.

Here's my math problem..

May God give you $, :) health to enjoy it and <3 Love to complete your life. Without one of those 3 parts you are only partially alive.

$ + :) + <3 = happiness

If you find someone you love... hold on tight and enjoy it!

Writing in my sleep

Too tired to really post a post.

Tropics contain a beautiful swirling hurricane in the Atlantic and numerous other hurricanes or ............cyclones elsewhere.

Listened to Radio Margaritaville most of the day on my computer however all day the lyrics from Sting were playing in my head, over and over.. haunting lyrics, intense, moody, truthful, brutally honest and mysteriously playful.

Some other songs from a collection of non-related groups like Nine Inch Nails and Tears for Fears and some Israeli group ... all bumping back and forth in some 1970s hustle dance, and Otis Redding sitting on the dock of the bay...

Going to sleep. I was asleep but Stuart called on layover back home to the Keys and wanted to do a late dinner. Threw clothes on and ran out. Dinner with Stuart is always a lesson in something. Had Moo Shu? Chicken, like little fajitas and dipped veal slices in some sauce and I had some sweet and sour soup that was too spicy but good and I realized how far I have come in the world that now instead of debating ad talking myself out of things I just pop the lychee fruit in my mouth and let it explode in exotic ways tasting the fragrance.. good. Having some peppermint tea and going to bed again... like the spy who came in from the cold :)

Wish I could go down for Rosh Hashonnah, really do but have the kids here and family. After the holidays, after the jewish ones and before the christian ones I will.

Going off... going back to bed, hearing Sting lyrics in my head... haunting lyrics.

Haunting hurricanes. Great Caesars Ghost.

Night, Lois

I wish I had a copy of Landfall by Jimmy Buffett, hard to believe I don't but I don't think I do. 1983 Particular Harbor. So funny, always loved the song 3 Coins in the Fountain.. oldies but goldies.

A Beautiful Soul

So, with all those hurricanes dancing out there in the middle of the ocean like they are doing some Virginia Reel sort of Square Dance, turn right here and hand off to the other, swing your partner, dosey doe... a bunch of tropical systems off to see the Wizard or England or the Azores (now thats rich) .. somewhere over the rainbow all the hurricanes go.... what am I supposed to talk about today?

So, this is sort of off topic tropically but if you want to stay around for the mystery, fine fine fine as Fishing used to say. Don't say I didn't warn you this was not tropically topical.

Someone, somewhere has a beautiful soul, in my humble opinon and taking the soap box of my blog over there to say so.. I can't say I begin to understand him or the drama involved in this ... this......mystery of time and space or complicated soap opera of my life but... he does and this is an incredible song. Somewhere, some girl is damned lucky to have this young man want her .. maybe she does want to be named in the song, I don't know, can't say. I just know.. the song is stuck in my head and I'm sharing it with you...

When all is said and done in my life, at the end of my day I will never understand why it was so important to sit up til 2am talking to Cyclone or making jokes with Agg or Jim or talking to Cyngus about men with their music boxes. Maybe I just don't need to know because if I did.. I'd know, so I suppose I don't and does it matter? IF DJ wanted to keep his secrets, they were his secrets to keep. Why was it so important to talk to him at 2am or 3am when we were doing nothing but talking about some afternoon when he was hanging on his porch going crazy staring up at some big, massive thunderstorm.. sometimes it doesn't matter why as much as it matters that I had to talk to him. I follow my instincts, some voice or need inside. I am as they say in the trades... a double, harmonic, water trine and I live on instinct sometimes and usually it works. There is a method to the madness even if we don't see it at the time. And, even if I never understand geometry... I still know it works. Peter Pan flies whether you see the strings or you don't see them.. you still know he's not really flying but either way it's magical to watch.

So.. dedicating this to a young man who is most extraordinary .. and the song that is stuck in my head. Hope somewhere, someone loves him very much the way he needs to be loved. We all do... we all need love.

Love Bobbi
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Carbon Leaf..
Live a life less ordinary

Live a life less ordinary
Live a life extraordinary with me
Live a life less sedentary
Live a life evolutionary with me
Well I hate to be a bother,
But it's you and there's no other, I do believe
You can call me naive but...
I know me very well (at least as far as I can tell)
And I know what I need

The night you came into my life
Well it took the bones of me, took the bones of me
You blew away my storm and strife
And shook the bones of me, shook the bones of me
By the way, I do know why you stayed away...
I will keep tongue-tied next time

Live a life less ordinary
Live a life extraordinary with me
My face had said too much
Before our hands could even touch
To greet a 'hello'
(So much for going slow...)
A little later on that year
I told you that I loved you dear
What do you know?
This you weren't prepared to hear
I'm a saddened man, I'm a broken boy
I'm a toddler with a complex toy
I've fallen apart, since the ambush on your heart

The night you came into my life
Well it took the bones of me, took the bones of me
You blew away my storm and strife
And shook the bones of me, shook the bones of me.
By the way, I do know why you stayed away
I will keep tongue-tied but...

Honey understand. Honey understand. I won't make demands
Honey understand. Honey understand. We could walk without a plan.
Honey understand(Honey). Honey understand. I won't rest in stone all alone
Honey understand. Honey understand. I'm all ready to go
But you already know...

Live a life less ordinary
Live a life extraordinary with me.
If I could name you in this song
Would it make you smile and sing along?
This is the goal: to get into your soul
If I could make you dance for joy
Could that be the second-chance to coy?
The bird-in-hand I would need
To help you understand?

The night you came into my life
well it took the bones of me, took the bones of me
You blew away my storm and strife
And shook the bones of me, shook the bones of me
By the way I do know why you stayed away
I will keep tongue-tied next time

1926 Great Miami Hurricane

Anniversary of the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane -

It is impossible to compare this storm to a other storm in Miami's history. Various websites and various government agencies quote different figures as to how many people died. Yet, it is totally impossible to account for every person who was washed out to sea or who perished in this massive, memorable storm. We will go with 373 people but remember that happened at a time when few people lived in Miami in the month of September; just the locals, workmen passing through and people docked in the bay and living on their boats in a shanty town that Miami has not seen since. The Bay was littered with little boats and crafts, schooners shipping wood and building supplies, little speakeasies, houseboats... all docked just offshore.

All in all I believe the total number of bodies found was 373 though we may never know for sure as people who survived jumped on board trains sent down to evacuate survivors with no record, no proof of who went where after the storm. No cell phones, no massive attempt at computerized tracking. People who had come to Miami to find their fortune simply jumped on the trains they sent down to evacuate people back home. The trains came down filled with coffins, they went back with survivors rather than ride back empty. Many a person was never accounted for officially.

The 1926 Hurricane was a Cape Verde storm that slammed into Miami as a strong Cat 4 and when I say "slammed in" I mean it slammed in at "Mainstreet Miami" and it proceeded very slowly across the area. A bigger, wetter storm than Miami has ever really seen. A Floyd sort of storm, crawling it's way across the landscape, dumping floodings rains, high storm surge carrying boats blocks inland and piling up againt broken, half built skyscrapers on Biscayne Blvd and beyond.

What is amazing about the 1926 Hurricane is not so much that so many people died but that so many people lived through such a storm and survived. I know people who sat in 3rd story apartment buildings on South Beach a block from Joe's Stone Crabs and watched the water cover the whole Southern Tip of South Beach and somehow their building stood while the water ran like a river through the first floor hallway corridor. They thought the water was from the rain, flooding rain... imagine if they had understood the dynamics of Storm Surge and had known that it was the ocean filling up the 1st floor of their apartment building and waves battering their building..

I know people who survived the storm in a Model T ford in an Orange Grove far to the west of the City. Many a strong Model T ford saved people out in Coral Gables as they fled their homes to the safety of the Model T as the wind blew through French Doors and ceilings collapsed.

I know people who huddled together in a funeral home near the Miami River that was built just high enough up that it saved the lives of those hiding inside from the rising waters of the Miami River being pushed outside it's banks. Those who tried to cross the bridge and go into Miami to check on their stores when the winds subsided at daybreak never returned, mostly swept away with the backside of the storm. A sort of sneaky eye that arrived just at daybreak seeming to make many believed they had lived safely through the long, dark, night of the storm .. only to have it slap back at them faster a half an hour later.

What a storm. Pictures of the storm and it's aftermath are amazing. The recovery and rescue of many documented in pictures and in stories told and corraborated by old timers.

And, still life goes on and no matter how much people write that the storm killed Miami it didn't. The boom ended but life went on and people kept building. UM still opened. There was a Winter Season of 27 though it wasn't as strong as the one of 1925 and really the 1926 Season was a weak one before the storm. Buildings were repaired and fortunes made.. just a little slower and in a town where people were a little wiser about what a Cape Verde Storm is and how Miami lies often in their path.

Florida Power and Light was a hero after the storm, not a much maligned villain as they offered jobs to any lad who was willing to "hop on a truck" to get Miami up and running again. Many families who worked for FPL for generations link that family connection back to the aftermath of the 1926 storm.

And, in the Jewish community of Miami.. some people died and some people lived on the Day of Judgement.. as the storm hit Miami on Yom Kippur... the day when the book of life is closed and finished and it is transcribed who would live and who would die in 1926...

Judgement Day Storm.. what a storm... 1926!

Boring Weekend. Tropically speaking of course..

This is not my favorite weekend of the year.

Certain people in my life always go poof one weekend every fall and if I would have thought on it earlier I would just mark this weekend in black or other colors on the calendar and have gone offline or gone away to Key West....

Hurricanes are boring lately. They are all the same. No, this is not about that rush of adrenaline and being under the gun.. it's about boring and all of them riding the same path through the Atlantic that a big rut should be in the Atlantic and if upwelling was a problem which it is not (since Mr. Chris stared down and insisted over and over upwelling is NOT a BIG issue, will defer to the meteorological, conceited lol genius..lol) and say nothing is going on and it's boring.

There are hints that Helene may make a lunge west and there are also hints another system might crop up close in to the coastline off the US that might form ... maybe.. might... who knows...kind of... maybe... We watch the models, we watch the water vapor.. we'll see.

Great discussion at 11 trying to explain a difficult situation with possible answers.

If I could get Stewart to write discussion on my life and it's problems at 5 and 11 I'd be okay. Maybe I would understand my own life better if Stacey Stewart was writing the daily discussion briefing.

Here in Miami tonight..........it is pouring, thunder and lightning punctuating Selichos evening when many Jews go to the Synagogue and pray the beginning of prayers for a Good New Year. My grandparents got married on Selichos evening years ago, that's the story they always told me.

Miami Hurricanes lost badly, they need a new coach and an old attitude sadly. You can't win games when you are trying to play like you are attending a tea party unless of course you are dressed like an Indian in Boston.

I thought a lot today, mostly on a story I have worked on for a long time, a novel. Re-read a lot that I had written back in 2002 or 2003 and put away because I couldn't finish it. Had no time, no mind. Thought of sending it to my friend and just telling him "here it is... you finish it" but that would be such a cop out. Then again, if anything happens to me and it's not finished there is a note on it that says "send to _____, he will know what to do with it." Funny, the only will and testament I have is to send him the novel. Pathetically funny in ways. Consistent anyways.

So, going to try not to think on college football and why everyone I like to talk to seems to go poof this weekend every year and ... going to read my novel, pray, watch the water vapor loop and enjoy listening to the rain.

Will check back tomorrow and see what is happening.

Lane was a real El Nino season storm and Miriam is forming in the Pacific as well. I'm not in Baja but if I was I would still feel how I feel tonight.

Upwelling, not in the spell checker.. wow, guess Chris was right, it's not important..

Tears For Fears.. for they know who

SHOUT
Tears For Fears
Shout, shout let it all out
These are the things I can live without
C'mon im a talking to you so C'mon
Shout, shout let it all out
These are the things I can live without
C'mon im a talking to you so C'mon

In violence eyes, you shouldnt have to sell your soul
In black and white, they really really outta know
Those wandering minds, they took you for a working whore
Its been good bye, you should have jump for joy

You shouldnt have to
Shout, shout let it all out
These are the things I can live without
C'mon im a talking to you so C'mon

They gave you life, and in return you gave them hell
As cold as ice, I hope we live to tell the tale

I hope we live to
Shout, shout let it all out
These are the things I can live without
C'mon im a talking to you so C'mon

Would you never shout
Got a feeling your never gonna let it all out
Will you never shout
Got a felling your never gonna let it all out
Will you never shout
Got a felling your never gonna let it all out
Will you never shout
Got a feeling your never gonna let it

And when you've taken down your guard
If I could really change you mind
I'd love to really break your heart

I'd really love to
Shout, shout let it all out
These are the things I can live without
C'mon im a talking to you so C'mon

I'd really love to
Shout, shout let it all out
These are the things I can live without
C'mon im a talking to you so C'mon

Shout ! Shout !

C'mon now lemme shout shout lemme
C'mon now lemme shout shout SHOUT !
C'mon now lemme shout shout lemme
C'mon now lemme shout shout SHOUT !

Intense Hurricane Day

Welcome to September 15th, 2006.

Today is an Intense Hurricane Day or it was earlier. It will be recorded as such in the books. It was overnight though.. you know... out there around 1am and 2am spinning around in a major way while we slept or tried to...

I don't want to say the season is over because I think as always there will be a swan song but... maybe I am just in denial.

Helene is pretty, oh... very pretty (watching the tropical update as i type this) and Helene is sort of boring. Gordon is well.. Gordon.

I'm still curious about that area near Puerto Rico.. sometimes storms develop around there during El Nino type years and sneak in under the radar.. far from Upper Level Lows.

As for me... talking online to Magnet Man, stronger than a paper clip and deceptively simplistic and overly imaginative, hmmmnnnn hmmmmmnnnn I smell a rat fink. An artistic rat fink. What else is new?

I need Key West. I really, really need Key West. I need to be in Key West.

I have to go.. going to work. Making Shabbos.

Chicken and couscous however you spell that. Salads (I bought olive spread) and fresh Challah from Annies and some good wine from Spain and well... it will be nice. And, am going to work on my novel this weekend. I may even need to take a trip to work on it and if so.. I will.

More than one rat fink can play at this game but I am never, ever, never writing or dealing with a screenwriter again.

Weather people only.
Geologists can go suck a tornado!

chow for now
Bobbi

Dreams of You... Hiding in the Tropics

One of those days... dreaming of Canes that are hiding from us somewhere out there...

Watching the ones we have that no one is interested in... but admiring all the same.

Amazing Gordon, churning in the mid-north Atlantic going major and wild.

Dropsonde readings from off the coast of Africa.

Some wierd cloud clutter catching my eye ene of Puerto Rico ... hmmmnnnn

So much to look at and yet.. nothing threatening us..

Good, good and gooder.
darn.. didn't mean to do that.. will leave it in as an 80s comment.

So... these are my pretty links for the night.. aren't they pretty. Cut and paste the cute links..

Isn't the world beautiful :)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb.jpg

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/Last_RMTC_nhemi_8km_ir4.html

And, somewhere tonight ... Bobbi wins. Maybe a hollow victory but not a shallow one but I did it my way...

:) nite..Bobbi

Tropical Depression #8 Forms .. Season almost gone...

Tropical Depression formed today off the coast of Africa.
An unreal, beautiful wave that is set to become Helene and travel west and then recurve safely, out to sea...

But, boy is she beautiful.

And, whether she curves or scares the hell out of everyone she deserves to be looked at and admired as a beautiful system, just beautiful. Like some big cosmic universe spinning in space...

Cosmic connections... hurricanes and galaxies spinning in space.

Yes.. the season may be over. Very possibly, very probably..one or two good storms left. We will see.

Not very tropical post below but I am sharing my thoughts with you.

Someone asked me what I wanted today...

I want the truth and I want to be truthful.

Plain and simple.

Been a long day, had to go for appointments today that I hate and am terrified of usually and handle and do but oh don't you Hate having to do things you know you have to and don't want to? I do.

Otherwise.............going to bed, going to check in on TD8 tomorrow.
Going to sleep and for a few minutes before I fall asleep ..wish I was in someone's arms tonight, instead of a bed with rumpled sheets and linens and the moon slowly sliding its way across the sky.

Where's a good comet when you need one?
Or a storm..

Bobbi...
off topic thoughts below


FEAR
Current mood: okay
Category: Life


My uncle Oscar used to give me lectures about what a waste it was to be
afraid. You know the old, famous saying "have nothing to fear but fear
itself"

Something about my mother's family and lots of fears.

I listened and yet I didn't really listen because I have always had too
many fears. You can't see it to look at me. On the surface I am sunny,
bubbly, outgoing and assertive. I take crazy chances and take on things
that most people wouldn't even dream of attempting.

I figure I can land on my feet.
I figure I can figure out what to do.
I figure I will figure out a way to manage.
I am a great figurer with a pretty good figure I might add.
But most of all I figure if I pretend, no one will see I'm afraid...
The person I wish to fool is me....

Funny huh?
Figures.
I deserve an Oscar.

I actually have one... My ex-husband bought me an Oscar charm to wear
around my neck when we lived in LA and he worked in Beverly Hills. His
mother was upset he spent money for jewelry when she could make me
anything I wanted. My mother was upset because she saw it and thought I
have St. Peter around my neck. The Academy found out the cute store in
the Beverly Center was selling them and made them stop selling them but they didn't get mine... Nope, mine is in a drawer and when I look at it...he winks at me and says, "Hey Bobbi... You and me against the world!"

But, the Oscar I needed in my life was Uncle Oscar. He died when I was
13. Died, died, dead. Gone.

If he had been alive I would have been less afraid.

He died and the future changed forever,

When we are small such things are so important. Who are parents are...
Who our grandparents are... Who are Uncle is... Who gets to reinforce
over and over examples to live by.

He told me on his death bed that I was smart, beautiful and could do and
be anyone or anything I wanted to be.

I believed him.

But, I was afraid still and then more afraid because Uncle Oscar.. My
rock...was gone.

So, all that I am is owed to Uncle Oscar because he made me believe in
myself and yet he couldn't teach me not to be afraid. He died too soon.
He didn't get the chance.

Oh, how the world would have been so different had he lived.

See? One person in our life can tip the scales.
One person not in our life can tip the scales.

And, slowly I am learning to be less afraid. Takes a village to replace
what might have been had one or two things been different.

I'm sorry for being afraid to take chances, to love, to try, to fight
for what was worth fighting for and hiding behind walls.

So, I'm going to try harder to be less afraid and try and remember the
words of Uncle Oscar... We have nothing to fear but fear itself.

Wish me luck. I need it!

Thanks for reading this.....Bobbi
Bubbly, sunny, sparkly and still working on myself!

Earthquake in Florida, Tropical Depression Forming

Note...I wrote this while Tropical Depression was forming. It's a little messy, like my mind today but creatively a masterpiece and written for one person and they know who they are... Thank you.

Just wanted to say TD 7 may or may not become Gordon and Gordon will probably swim with the fishes, but I needs to track it... and need to go back to work and reality and leave my vacation with my pen pal and my Captain of Fantasy...

Just stop sending me text messages that somehow throw me offline like there was a new earthquake rocking my world...

Maybe we created something amazing today... write it, rewrite it, edit it, enjoy it, you rock my world... Rock me like a hurricane, Rock me like an earthquake.

Shake Rattle and Roll
Post below...
If you don't understand it... it wasn't meant for you to understand..
***************
I'm listening to Drudge... while waiting for TD 7 to form...

I waited all day to hear him talk about the Earthquake, curious what Mr. Drudge would say.. as I know he is sitting there freaking over such phenomenon laughing his hat off.

He knows he has to talk about the 911 movie because people expect it of him but he is dying to talk about the earthquake...

See, there he goes... again, the quake..

Felt for 20 seconds... widely felt
"rattled our trailer pretty good" he is laughing, know he is and lol...

funny how you know stuff
funny how i do anyway...

this is my world.. my water vapor loop
my favorite pic from way back .. on the front page of www.hurricanecity.com where I can always find it..

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10?PHOT=yes&AREA=global/atlantic&PROD=vapor&NAV=global&CGI=global.cgi&ARCHIVE=Latest&MOSAIC_SCALE=15&CURRENT=LATEST.jpg

Long link...

It's my "you got the whole world in my hands" website.

Look at TD7 out there.. way below Florence... a bit ene of the islands.

So like some old joke about No Soap Radio...

No Canes but got a Quake...

6.0 Quake.
I mean... we can't get a Cat 5 Hurricane going but we got a Cat 6 Quake.

Off Tampa yet...

Would love an explanation but not asking Rock Boy to learn about this, I can google it and Wiki it on my own.

So... what a day it was oh what a day it was...

Was a good day for me. Good day for someone else too.

Thanks to a very good friend, I put on my tank top the color of this sat pic below.. sort of aqua blue, turquoise (shows off my tan) and I tore up a skirt I hate that had nice fabric but horrible elastic and way too long and turned it into a wrap around sarong skirt that I can use at the beach, really nice... really... and I put on my Escape to Key West CD of Jimmy Buffett songs about the guy who was "IN IT" and it's Laid Back and Key Wasted... took Captain Morgan along and Atlanta ceased to exist.. was like Sherman's march to the Sea... and felt a tropical breeze and played with mr. favorite form of addiction and worked hard at the game, played hard...

I was a tropical muse all day. :)

Rhymed and climbed
rocks up higher and higher
and ate strawberries with cream and
wrote more poetry
and more prose than I have in ages,
except they wrote more
which is fine with me because...
that's the way we play the game.

Beautiful horizon
Hurricanes swirling still
Quakes out in the Gulfstream
Big Wave coming soon
Me and my tsunami
and a starship to the moon

and somewhere ..far away the song is playing...

take me away to the stars
we'll travel to pluto?

if I put my fingers in my ears and try real hard I can hear the song but not the words... sail away to the stars.. we'll travel to venus... something something to mars... the airship song :)

Smiling.

This blog tonight is for only a few people... there is only Florence bugging the hell out of Bermuda and Tropical Depression 7 waiting in the wings, and El Nino grumbling and what did cause that Shake, Rattle and Roll off shore in Tampa? Maybe the Loop Current was having a temper tantrum?

Link it, once and for all.. meteorology and geology
Do it.
Go for it!

A flying strawberry with whipped cream and rainbows.. perfect.
Absolutely perfect.

So... bottom line here...

I promised BURNS a storm today.. a new storm. I told him I would take out my magic wand (no not the dropsonde) and I would wave it back and forth... and he would have his storm.

And, I did it... (no dont think I really did it but lets let Burn's believe I did)

Tropical Depression #7 formed out in the Atlantic.

Breaking news, breaking news... as I type this blog...
Today, Peak of the Season
Peak a Boo
Peak a Boo Bryson, Peabo Bryson

You owe me Sandman you owe me... and you know what I what I want and its not Sheba :)

Oh, darn.......... got to put Captain Morgan back in the box...
Slide the CD out of there and away for safe keeping
Take off the sarong and put my thinking cap back on and go back to work..

New Day
New Storm
New Week
New ideas to think upon.

Thank you dear for keeping me company today, peak of the season day... a day when I needed to get away if only in my mind


Great song... many, many songs on that CD you made me...

From the wake up call in the morning and all throughout the day...

I thank you ... my own Captain Morgan and Captain Fantasy

We gots to go back to work... was a fun day, i needed it... badly
could have used a trip down the Overseas Highway but...
this was next to perfect

"So bring me two pina coladas
One for each hand
Let's set sail with Captain Morgan
And never leave dry land"

TD7... 54.5 west... figures..........might become Gordon tomorrow..
Keep watching the tropics
we might have created something special today
time will tell
play with it, edit it, redo it, rewrite it, keep playing

Always, Bobbi
ps... as for Mr. Drudge...
perfect song, hope you get paid well by your advertisers.
you know when you play the windmills song it drives me crazy

no getting over that rainbow
when my smallest dreams
wont come true
i can take all the madness
the world has to give
but i wont last a day
without you...

Down On Their Knees - Hurricane Watch Issued for Bermuda

"FLORENCE HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET...BUT IT COULD TONIGHT..."

That's an advisory? I'm afraid to read the discussion. Again they have issued a Hurricane Watch for a Tropical Storm betting on it to intensify when it hasn't done so yet.....

This has been the season of more laid back advisories from the NHC. I've noticed that with several of the advisories. That's good. Nice to see them look more human and less like scientists... Um...wait, they ARE scientists... hmmmmnnn.

Anyway... I'm getting worried now as they have had less than a 24 hour period of Hurricane Activity and last year at this time there was over 500 hours according to The Weather Channel.

I'm worried that I will go online after Shabbos and read some advisory that reads "PLEASE FLORENCE, WE ARE DOWN ON OUR KNEES.. PLEASE INTENSIFY YOU HAVE THE ABILITY, WE KNOW YOU CAN DO IT!!! "

I'm worried that Dr. Met Shrink may need to make a few house calls.

Superman told me that this is 1997.. okay it wasn't superman but well... this is not 1997 and it is some haha joke on the people who brought you Global Warming Out of the Box. Have to retool this one. I'd like to talk to Kerry Emmanuel and Company now. Probably some discussion on an attempt by mother nature to get along with father nature one more time before...

Well, anyway... so much for the tropics.

It is 1997, again. So..where's the champaign I ask? Hmmm Supersandman? Now what?

I'm cooking for shabbos.

Chicken, yellow rice (and brown rice with mushrooms) and brussel sprouts and baby carrots.

Fish and all the trimmings... all the slaws and Israeli salads money can buy.
We only eat one day a week.. may as well go all out!

Strawberries and Wine for dessert. Incredible, amazing, juicy, perfect, ripe, big, red strawberries.

Nothing on the tropical update. People I love are gone to Denver and Cheyenne.

Sort of drifting now.. drifting in a aimless pattern in endless circles of uncertainty, running down the drain in colored arangements only Michael can find, not wearing yellow slickers in the rain and somewhere over the rainbow a bluebird sings, birds fly over the rainbow why then oh why can't I?

What's that song from the movie with Olivia Newton Brown? Not Xanadu, nope, my favorite perfume when I was little.. hopelessly devoted.. to you.

If a tree falls in a forest and no one is there to hear it fall... does it make a sound?

Good Shabbos to all and to all a goodnight...

Bobbi

FLO Floats Out In The Atlantic.. 900 miles wide?

I've been a little quiet the last few days. Not much to say about a storm that takes up most of the Atlantic Ocean and refuses to strengthen even though the NHC gives it the green light to intensify.

She is big. She is large. She is floating wnw across the Ocean where she will meet with a trough, do a tango and most like turn..

My question is.. can a storm 900 nautical miles wide be tugged completely by a trough the way a regular big 300 mile wide storm can be? I mean how many 900 nautical mile wide storms have we seen before?

And, you can't blame the problems on the size because this is the same thing that happened with Ernesto.. despite good conditions and green lights to intensify he didn't. Shear didn't lessen.

Will see.

In my life... Sharon is back from Maine and we did the OLD Publix we used to do for years and years on Miami Beach like it was the most normal thing in the world. Wandered around Landau waiting for the boys to be ready to go home. Old Times, very strange...like some time warp thing going on ... Was great..

Miriam is back from NY, its been nonstop noise and partying with friends and syblings up late.

Making Chicken and Yellow Rice
Babaganoush, hummus, turkish salad, cole slaw
brown rice with gourmet mixed mushrooms
Fish. Challah. Wine.

Moe and Deb are coming ...bringing Challah.

Dolphins lost :( sigh

And, I am going to bed..not going to think on anything else.

Note this quote from the Discussion from the NHC from Avila who is one of the only ones I know who always uses the word "I" the way he does... sounds miffed with Florence like she is stubborn.. lol. She is ..900 nautical miles wide.

" CANNOT FIND ANY REAL GOOD REASON WHY FLORENCE HAS NOT YET INTENSIFIED SINCE THE INGREDIENTS COMMONLY USED TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING ARE PRESENT."

Personally, I think El Nino is present too but well.. if so you got to give it to the Old Guy.. at least HE showed up, unlike some old guys I know who play hide and seek but don't come out from behind the trees.

Good Shabbos Florence,
Bobbi

FLORENCE CONTINUES ON - ULL Develops

On one level not much new has happened and yet there are some "DISCREPANCIES" to think upon and as I watched the water vapor loop last night I noticed the Upper Level Low playing out there in the water like a Stingray about to stab Florence ... who may or may not deal with it well. Again, Upper Level Lows remain the protector of the US Coastline better than any Coast Guard could dare to be.

If this doesn't develop into one mean baby it will only be because of that Upper Level Low.

That is what we see by watching the Water Vapor Loop.

Those who are in love with other sats think I'm nuts on the Water Vapor but it's not because I like expensive lava lamps.. it is because they are the crystal ball of the set.. the one that tells the tale.

And, what I saw last night... was that upper level low. All I could do was watch the upper level low evolving.

Sometimes phantoms show up clearer than the RED HERRING and in this case... you can watch Florence try to get her act together all you want but the Upper Level Low compels you to keep staring at it and wonder thinking............ again?

So, notice here in the wording directly from the NHC: (rhome with Beven's help.. beautiful writer)

"WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF FLORENCE IS BEGINNING TO FRACTURE CAUSING THEFORMATION OF AN UPPER LOW. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO CAUSING A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN VERTICAL SHEAR AND A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FORSTRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THIS EXPECTED EVOLUTION IS STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON THE PHASING OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE CYCLONE. SHOULD FLORENCE GET TOO CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW..."

SHOULD FLORENCE GET TOO CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW..........
YES BEVEN.. TELL US WHAT WILL HAPPEN...


and then the kicker, the kicker of all kickers... suddenly there are discrepancies. You never want to see discrepancies because they are a doorway, a window to possibilities... to tropical peeping Toms to watch and enter... different possibilities entering through the window of discrepancies:

"THE GLOBALS CONTINUE TO SHOW DISCREPANCIES IN THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPSTREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THEEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS IN THE DEGREE...TIMING...AND LOCATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWARD TURN."

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm deep sigh.

I say that because I have a weather friend who insists this storm is not so simple and not a real fish and has a good possibility to shoot the rapids between the trough and the Upper Level Lows and cause damage somewhere to the left of the line...

So...those are my tropical thoughts. You don't want my non-tropical thoughts as they have something to do with blackberries and Aspen quivering in the breeze that comes across a golf course of uncertainty. Causes stress. They both do... the tropical troubles and the red herrings.

I'll post more later today if something develops that needs to be mentioned.

Have a good Wednesday and let's get over the hump so we can move on to tomorrow.

Always, Bobbi

Keep An Eye On FLO

Keep an eye on Flo..

I haven't written much in the last 24 hours here as there has been so much going on with me in general and the storm is still way far away.

Models have it recurving which means FISH STORM and yet I think that there will be some question that down the line.

Reading discussion has given trackers and analysts whiplash.
One says it's disorganized, one says it's becoming a storm, one says its weak, one says it is a storm... etc...

Well, bottom line ..........there is a storm.

Bottom line... its still too soon to tell and we just have to wait and see.

My school started this week, it's very hectic and so much going on and I haven't had much time between spending FOUR hours commuting in heavy rains to and from work to do much of anything. It has rained in Miami for days now.. getting water logged and my ceiling at home is complaining. I'm tired, cranky, my ankles hurt and my eyes hurt... ache... and to top it off wierd things happened today that don't defy explanation but I'd rather not think on any explanations right now as ... bottom line all the excuses in the world don't mean nothing... what is is.. what isn't isn't and everything just is talk. Either you are here or you are not here.. I'm sure there are reasons but... doesn't change the bottom line. Okay, slightly off topic message but it's important as I did call the number back but it had some wierd message so back to posting messages on my blog. Except that I haven't anything to say... all I can do is stare.

Note to crazy writing people... don't you ever write anything about this as I don't find it humorous at all :(

Back to weather... wait and see.. keep watching... she might go out to sea and she might not...

Either way Dear Florence...
you are........

So Far Away, Bobbi

NOT QUITE A NAMED STORM... LOOKS LIKE A BAD SCI FI MOVIE...

this post should be called, "Three Faces of Florence"

Tropical Depression 6 looks like a bad science fiction movie. Like some B movie from the 50s or 60s.. sort of like some SuperWeather Hero shot it with a Johnny Ray Gun and it has broken apart and each smaller center is vying to survive and be the one to lay the claim for fame to be the Big Bad Florence that is forecast to develop a little bit slower than perviously thought.

It's like Gunfight at the OK Corral, have to wait til the dust settles to see which gunfighter is left standing.

Heard the Steelers QB had an emergency appedictomy, that was lost in some long IM on wet, atmospheric conditions I was having with a fellow tracker and didn't catch it until I was about to click out of the very tropical discussion. Think lying in his hospital bed recovering he is in better condition than Tropical Depression 6 and thanks to my Hurricane buddy for mentioning it and bringing me back to the real world from the various, tropical scenarios we were deeply discussing. What a Tempest of a Storm can be pondered on while TD6 flounders about looking for it's center. (Let's hope it doesn't find it) Maybe it should join the Kabbalah Centre, you know and look deep down into the depths of her soul and see what is really in a name, if she can get a name, where does she want to go in life, what is her purpose?? Come on Six... get with the program here..

So, discussion from the National Hurricane Center which sounds more like Lex Luthor trying to find kryptonite to scare off Superman says it best this morning in their 5am.

"THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE BROAD WITH SEVERAL POSSIBLE CENTERS. ALTHOUGH BANDING FEATURES REMAIN IMPRESSIVE...THEY ARE SOME WHAT REMOVED FROM THE ESTIMATED CENTER. BASED ON THIS ANALYSIS AND UNCHANGED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES"

So, then I wonder...how does Avila end with "GIVEN THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER...THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 310/10 IS UNCERTAIN."

which contradicts pretty much the earlier discussion as at first they say it has several possible centers and then they say the poorly defined center.

Which is it guys? I guess you were also having deep, tropical discussion and analysis this morning over there... wow, what a thought to ponder on..

Seems to me.. this whole thing is poorly planned, poorly defined and poorly thought out.

Yes, I know the models want to take it and aim it STRAIGHT AT FLORIDA AND THE SE COAST..

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/nhc-story.asp?partner=accuweather&story=3

But, poor Bastardi now has to worry on a sick quarterback and a sick tropical depression. I'm sorry Joe.. and I am hoping the Canes beat the Noles today too!

My problem here is this: I have to take my son to buy shoes at Payless today and I don't want to..

No... Bobbi, be serious (I am serious lol I want to have fun today!!!)

Seriously TROPICALLY SPEAKING:

THIS IS MY PROBLEM:
THERE HAS NOT BEEN A BIG MASSIVE BLOCKING HIGH ALL SUMMER SO FAR AND I AM HAVING A PROBLEM BELIEVING IN THIS PREDICTED SUPER HIGH THAT IS GOING TO DEVELOP SUDDENLY AND BLOCK ANY NORTHERN MOVEMENT AND BRING HER IN AS A BIG MASSIVE, HUNKERING STORM..

I'm sorry, I'm not a believer until I see her..

For one we are dealing with models that are guessing at a real center which means we are guessing at a real storm.

Second, the timing is off.

Third, the high has not built in and it is still being pulled north ..or one of the centers is being pulled north.

This is some sloppy sci fi movie at best and if I am going to watch a movie today it is going to be Twister.. as I have been hungering for it for days now.

Meanwhile...there is more rain falling over my house right now, heavy, heavy, big, cold (COLD) raindrops pounding my house, flooding my street and my son who needs the new shoes just called this rainstorm the "STORM OF THE CENTURY" and I bet it just shredded my blue roof..hope not...

So.. going to go watch the rain and think upon the amazing different tropical scenarios my Hurricane Buddy gave me to think upon...

THIS IS A STORM IN MIAMI .. www.intellicast.com (go to radar and zoom in)
that is not a storm.. its a mess...

I'll check back later and see what the mess is doing and maybe it will have found it's center..

Meanwhile, watch the wave closer to Africa.. think it could be the real thing.. while this messy, large wave wettened up the atmosphere giving the real wave something to work with..

Good luck Joe.. hoping the Fins Win and the Canes Roll Over the Noles..

CHOW FOR NOW, Bobbi!

Tropical Depression #6 Forms, Will it be a Major Cane?

Tropical Depression #6 forms in the far Atlantic from a Cape Verde Wave.
The National Hurricane Center advises that although it is currently moving to the NW and looks like it should go out to sea.. a ridge is forecast to build above it and that it should bend back towards the West in a track like (fill in the blank)___*_________ and it could possibly threaten our part of the world later in the forecast period.

Note: later in the forecast week could mean way more than five days away and therefore not a lot of stock is put in such a forecast. It is looked at more like a "suggestion" as opposed to an official forecast.

It is "discussion" and discussion by it's nature is not hard facts but the different possibilities that could happen should A happen and B happen and C happen.
And, as Ed said on www.flurricane.com it "Lets not generate a fever pitch until this system develops a temperature " and I so agree. We don't want to go THERE AGAIN.. do we? I for one, don't.

Historically speaking, most storms that form out there and are moving NW do go out to sea. They become as they call them in the trades, FISH STORMS.. yet the NHC feels reasonably sure enough to put it out on the table right now at this early point that we shouldn't start expecting a fish fry just yet.

They also say that they are not sure on timing.

Well, timing is everything in tropical prediction.

If the trough doesn't come down fast enough.. your timing is off.If the high doesn't build in fast enough.. your timing is off.If the Upper Level Low doesn't move out when you thought it would...If your trough disapeers too fast... your timing to catch it is off and the Storm can't pull up fast enough to stop from crash landing into Florida.

Note I am talking Andrew here, not TD6. All we heard was the trough was coming down, the trough was coming down and suddenly... poof the trough didn't rush down..in fact the trough took a hike and went POOF and Andrew came barreling through.
If the factor that you are expecting that would inhibit the storm's intensity or intensify the storm into a Cat 3 doesn't arrive in time you have a busted forecast. The general track may be right.. a day or two off but the fly in the ointment here is intensity forecasting.

With regard to TD6 who is lumbering along like a lumberjack whale slowly and awkwardly towards the NW, one of the biggest systems I have seen come off of Africa since I can't remember when (some wave Burns and I tracked years back comes to mind)... this storm that some models are already building into a Cat 3 or Cat 4.. have heard talk of a Cat Five. Hell, I've heard talk that the NHC is going to name a new category just in honor of THIS here depression.

The hype may set up early for this one.

The words Cape Verde illicit respect and excitement.

Never the less... time will tell what happens to the soon to be Flo and in a year which hasn't been kind to Hurricanes I think it is a bit too soon to jump on the KILLER CANE COMING NEXT WEEKEND bandwagon... ya know?

IF you go back somewhere in the posts I wrote on Ernesto I mentioned how I thought it was funny that the same people who didn't want to believe the NHC on a track for Ernesto 3 days out were oogling a wave far off coming off of Africa that the same model was turning into a monster storm 15 days out.

Well................. welcome to the GFS's monster wave from a few days ago.
Seems the GFS model is on the money this year.
What do I think?

Can it turn back and keep on coming at us? Jim Williams at www.hurricanecity.com has a great feature that allows you to click on a link and watch what is supposed to happen with the storm. He is good. Very good. Much better than the show Joe Bastardi (who I like) was putting on. It is one of the best, clear cut, visual, graphic explanations of the long wordy discussion that those of us in the trade love. It is similar to but more touchy feely to the discussion Bryan Norcross gives during the 6pm. Less editorializing and less hmmning and hawwing and we do love Bryan down here in Miami but telling you Jim is good, really good so check him out and you can see for yourself why the NHC expects this Tropical Depression to go west, west, west under a building ridge giving all of us back here in the coastal regions a real tropical depressing.

Because.........if you believe the models.. then you also have to believe this will become a Major Hurricane, the first of the season.

Model link below:http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_90.gif

Check out skeetobite's show as well as a friend from the message board's site for easy viewing

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_90.gif

Some really excellent people here in the online community, some professional, some high end professionals, some amateurs who know their stuff...some great people all trying to track the storm and provide you with the best information you could use should the storm threaten your area.

Lastly, there is a really nice wave behind TD6 and I think it is lower and might be more interesting but meanwhile.. we are dealing with TD6 or soon to be FLO.. Florence.

Get used to the name.. whether she is a F storm for Fish or a F storm for Florida.. only time will tell.

I could see a Dora like hit... or Hugo, but I am trying not to think on the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926... all storms that formed in this general region. Big, wet.. oh my gosh, my heart goes pitter patter... wet, big, slow moving, Cat 4... no, no don't think on that one Bobbi.

So... as I sign off and wait for the 11pm discussion and advisory may I add... it's still early in the game, spend some time tracking with us online or reading up on hurricanes. Take the time you have tomorrow to keep in mind what you may need to remember later in the week.. if you need to remember.

And, while remembering... again may I say one more time... whether it was a 4 or a 5 does not matter. The Labor Day Cane killed a lot of poor vets who were working hard down in the Keys in the Dead of Summer being used mostly as mosquito bait as they tried to send back a little money to families back home who ended burying their dead or remembering them always as the fathers and brothers and sons who were washed away when the waves washed the train out to sea. Take a moment to be thankful you live in 2006 and not in 1926 or 1935 and that someone, somewhere in the bunker at FIU at the National Hurricane Center someone is trying to watch over you and for your safety and give you ample warning, the best that they can do at this time to bring you a Cone and a track that will scare you silly :)

Let's see what happens tomorrow.. as for me.. kids just came back from paintball shooting and they smell like they have been shooting eachother with paintballs in a field full of mud or horse manure or something at TY Park... ewww... ewwww ...pewww. Thank you NCSY for that reminder of the world out there .... ewwww lol. I think I should be happier when she is surfing and not playing paintball war with her friends.

And, life goes on... another storm forms, another one dies away.. I'll be back to play another day..

Bobbi, still too far away to be worried on the cone ... unless it's an ice cream cone..... http://www.hurricanewarning.blogspot.com/ Look at that cone, ewww

EL NINO 101 - Anniversary of the Labor Day Hurricane 1935

Good morning America! My son Shuky is back in the USofA! Home from his extended stay in Israel. Welcome home Shuky! Let the hurricane season roll..

So, my topic for this morning ... for the current class in Tropical Weather (or lack of) is El Nino 101.

Please cut and paste the following website into your browser and look at the pretty picture of the world.

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.9.1.2006.gif

No, the world is not flat.. it's just a picture.
Yes, it is colorful.
Move the scroll bar on the bottom over so you can see America.
See the pretty colors off of the West coast of Mexico extending westward out into the Pacific?
That is not sunrise.. that is El Nino.

It looks like someone took a paintbrush and painted a little color there... just a dab, just a start of a bigger painting that will look like Sunset Over The Pacific...

El Nino indeed.

Now, some people will tell you that I am just going through that stage of "there is no season" freaking that most trackers go through every year before hurricanes begin forming.

Wrong. Nope.

This is Labor Day and there is not a hurricane on the map. Not a tropical storm to be seen. Not a depression on the horizon and this is not about tropical depression but about the reality that something is going on over there in the Pacific Ocean where El Nino lives, sleeps and hides.

And, before you "SEE" an El Nino you "FEEL" an El Nino. You feel it in subtle ways.

1) It's too quiet in the Atlantic Basin.
2) Shear seems strong in the Caribbean and nothing wants to develop in areas previously hot for development in non-El Nino years.
3) Strong hurricanes start to develop in the Pacific and move more to the right of their normal, tropical, shipping routes.. for example John... who didn't go out to sea but crawled his way straight up the Baja Peninsular.
4) Something changes in the atmosphere, in the patterns.

You notice all of this way before fishing fleets in Peru begin to get territorial and South American local politics heat up.

Seriously... before the first oranges are dabbled onto the Tropical Satellite canvas.. you see signs of El Nino.

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.9.1.2006.gif

I have been seeing signs all season but for once, for once in my life the NHC and everyone else has jumped on the Bobbi Bandwagon of the importance of Saharan Dust in the Atmosphere. I have been singing those blues for a long time and everyone was like "yeah, yeah" and gave me other initials besides SAL.. and talked on all sorts of reasons for the lack of Cape Verde Hurricanes and for years now I have been screaming dust in the wind and suddenly it is the hot topic of the month.

Even if the SAL wasn't there... the strong head winds that Cape Verde storms would have to face would be too strong for the waves to develop, in my opinon. And, the water temps in the Atlantic are barely warm enough for a hot bath which wreaks and speaks of El Nino.

Yes. There is SAL aka Saharan Dust in the atmosphere. But, SAL is not the only reason to complain.. EL Nino, also known as EN is here and finally showing his sunburned face.

So... although, we may have some tropical storms this year and a hurricane or two.. the big rush on Hurricanes is over and there will be less talk of Global Warming and it's effect on the Atlantic Hurricane season and possibly talk of Global Warming and it's effect on Ocean Currents but note that the Gulf Stream is not hot, hot, hot and the area once known in 1997 off of the Western Coast of Mexico is hot, hot, hot and that should be a big wake up call to all of us in the field of Tropical Weather analysis to take a cold shower, get out the history books and see what usually happens in El Nino Autumns.

It's Hurricane Season going into Peak of the Season and the football games have begun, school has started, the Jewish High Holy Days are around the corner and leaves are beginning to turn.. this is the Peak of the Season and the only thing peeking through is.. El Nino.

Next subject... freebie.. The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, as this weekend reminds of always of that horrible, hurricane event.

Happy Labor Day Sunday... you all know my thoughts on the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, strong but maybe not as strong as the history books say.

However, really what is the difference of 5 or 10mphs between a Cat 4 or a Cat 5? It is all as Dina says, a matter of perspective. When Andrew was a 5 and they demoted him to a Cat 4 John Hope was real happy on TWC and I was sitting there at home like "oh thrills, its five mph less, don't I feel better?" (as I was in the crosshairs and ready to be hit by Andrew) Yet, Cat 5 is officially called an Act of God even though I would think it would better called an Act of the Devil's Wind.

Many a Katrina special recently explained how storm surges build up in the Gulf and cause damage hard to describe because such a surge doesn't happen easily in Florida because of the differences in the Continental Shelf, something about coral reefs and the songs of the Coral Reefers but supposedly it did in 1935.

Also, I read recently in a book about Key West that talked about as bad as it can be in Key West in a Major Hurricane the water actually would rush over it and around it and you would never have that same sort of storm surge that you have in some places along the Atlantic Coast because also... there is no big coastline for it to damn up against as there is in other places. I didn't write it, someone else did and saw it in a few places online and off. I know, never believe what you read....

Hmmmnnn, well so if you want to live in Key West and not worry on Hurricanes blowing your house down... build on Solares Hill I suppose is the general idea or try and ride out a Cat 3 or higher from the rooftop bar at the La Concha. Got to tell you, if you have to go... what a way to go.

Either way, many people lost their lives and were blown out to sea or buried in mangroves in the Labor Day Hurricane and it should be remembered and appreciated for how a small, storm can intensify so quickly in such a short time and how vulnerable we are in South Florida (especially the Keys) to a Killer Cane.

So...my follow up question is this..

If storm surge, really BIG storm surge, is the result of a hurricane moving towards a land mass and it is about the dome of water that is pushed towards the coast line over time as the storm gets closer and closer..

Wouldn't it be hard for such a storm surge of recorded heights to have formed prior to the development of the Labor Day Hurricane even becoming a Hurricane? It would be hard to think that a storm surge like that could develop from what was practically a Tropical Storm a day earlier and infact was a very small storm in size .. where did all that water come from???

The 1926 Hurricane traveled from far to hit the South Florida area with a 20 something feet storm surge, it pushed that water out ahead of it all the way from the West Indies, it was a slow mover, it was HUGE... much, much bigger than Andrew and much, much, much bigger than the 1935 Labor Day Storm.

So, I ask... how could a storm that is small, not even on the map a few days before traveling towards Florida from that angle as a weak, small, barely there Tropical Storm develop a Storm Surge that high in ONE day that rushed over the Island chain devastating a few of the Keys but barely buffeting the others by anything but some strong winds? Hurricanes can develop in a day. Category 5 storms can blow up fast.. but can storm surges blow up that high in one day as well?

Or was it the way the railroad was built and set up that created a funnel like effect in Florida Bay and the sucking in of the water on the Bay side combined with a strong onshore wind and growing surge from a Major Cane created as the survivor reports describe, a massive Tidal Wave that rushed across the tracks and grabbed the train right off the tracks and dumped it on it's side depositing the lost and unlucky souls who never made it to the safety of Miami and the mainland into the mangroves where they died a horrible death as a milder but Major Hurricane rolled over them. A Hugo like hurricane maybe, it doesn't take a Category 5 to wipe out a barrier island or a Key that is only a few blocks wide.

Do exposed, naked, dead bodies hanging in the trees in a strong Cat 3 look that different from those who died in a Cat 5? A Cat 4 or a Cat 5? Is a corpse any less sandblasted 2 days later after a very strong Cat 3 as opposed to a Cat 5?

Just my opinon. Just my question for old times sake..

How do we know for meteorologically sure.. that the Labor Day Hurricane was the worst hurricane ever or was it just politically correct to say so and to keep continuing the lie?

No one wants to take on that battle but I think it needs to be looked at and reviewed and re-evaluated. No one wants to pull the mask off the old Lone Ranger and no one wants to rewrite history, not really and maybe it doesn't really matter but it just always bugs me personally.

So, that's my question for hurricane researchers (smiling, YKW UR) with the big money and the big brains and deep down I know that question nags at him too... good question my hurricane friend, Who and What Killed the Vets? You know the quote better than I about the water rolling over them as you sent it to me when I was looking for it.

Either way... the general broader answer is..

Hurricanes Kill. Major Hurricanes Kill More People.

El Nino modifies hurricane development in the Western Atlantic and the Gulf Of Mexico so it is indeed your friend, your savior, your pre-Christmas present that shuts down what is left of the Hurricane Season.

My predictions?

Jim doesn't agree with me on the Labor Day Question but someone else does, deep down it really bugs him too.

Now that Shuky is back, the wonder, weather, wizard of the family... something will spin just so he can play with the water vapor loop and yeah Daddy is your Daddy, no I didn't have an affair with anyone. (honestly, the things your kids will ask you one day.........)

Something may develop around Florida from all this messy rain and low pressure but it won't be much.

It will be hard to get a good Cape Verde Storm rolling as much as I would love to if I could for BURNS but..I can only do so much. I'm not Miss Cleo :P

Florida will have a brush with a Cane but it won't be 2004 or 2005.... it will be 2006, a kinder, more gentler year.

You will start hearing about EL NINO in the newspapers (mark my words) and...

I will have a nice Labor Day Weekend.. whether you find me at Starbucks or in Barnes and Nobles or at the beach or the pier or even at home in my tank top and short jean skirt staring at loops, looping around and reading up on some of the hurricane books I have put away to read for a rainy day...

Somewhere I will be thinking on the Labor Day Cane and wishing I was celebrating this Labor Day down in the Keys, grabbing something to eat at that nice market across from the Hurricane Memorial and toasting the quiet with a margarita wearing a hibiscus behind my ear and feeling the tropical breeze.

El Nino 101.
Modifies tropical development in the Western Caribbean as it creates shear across the basin inhibiting storms from forming and blowing their clouds away and instead of the Gulf Stream being hot, hot, hot... the El Nino current is hot, hot, hot...

Welcome to El Nino and have a Wonderful Labor Day safe from hurricanes pounding the shores and yet a clean up for those still suffering from the after effects of Tropical Storm Ernesto.. the only known hurricane so far in the Atlantic Basin in 2006.

Taking a shower, giving thanks that Shuky is home and going to put on that wonderful CD that someone here sent me for days when I can't get down to Margarittaville.

Lastly, thank you Skeetobite for having a good sense of humor :) Good to wake up to a giggle in my email box! Thanks for the great maps and easy link for satellite loops and images.

Going over to HurrCity to see what Target and gang has to say about the tropics today...and then stopping in at Flhurricane and then........going to relax and see what happens next this weekend.

Over and out...
BobbiCane
BobbiStorm
Bobbi watching the tropics even though El Nino is coming out of hiding...