Black Friday and Bleak Tropics

We know its a done deal that the Atlantic Tropical Hurricane Season of 2010 is almost over. I've never been much of a post game tropical analysis person... it's over, I've written all summer and into fall about it and anyone can read back on my thoughts. That said, I will do something in a few days on my favorite memories of this hurricane season.

Fronts moving east.... winter is almost here. Was 74 this morning in Miami.

Am going out to return a few things and figure out where I want to do lunch and relax before this evening's Shabbos meal with friends at the Temple.

Temples to some people are I suppose Target and Walmart on Black Friday. It's not really my thing.... I figure time is money and I don't like crowds and you can get better deals online this year I think than standing in line. Bought a pair of winter, purple, flannel Pajamas from Victoria Secrets yesterday with free slippers and free shipping...to me that is a deal. Starry Dreams or something like that...

So....

Going out to enjoy my beautiful city and watch people rushing about and find a beach somewhere to stare at the water. May you all have the best Black Friday you can and be happy and loved.

Besos Bobbi

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

Turkey Day .... Travel or Not to Travel ...THAT is the Question

For me I am home... came home a while back for another family event and stayed for the holidays. Sounds strange that I "came home" but I travel a lot these days between grandkids and kids and in that in between time in my life. Not put out to the farm just yet and not building a family either. One of those young, sort of sexy grandma's who enjoy life and this stage in it.

Miami, is as always, a tropical city filled with tropical themes to the holidays and a diversity that is not seen in Des Moines Iowa or North Carolina... not even in Virginia. Walgreens has the aisles stocked with dreidels and hanukah menorahs and chanukah games all spelt differently but no matter how you spell it... it's Chanukah :)

But, before we get to Chanukah we have Thanksgiving. Turkey and stuffing and all the fixings and about four different pies for dessert. The weather outside is beautiful, stunningly beautiful. Taking long walks at night under the stars with the palm fronds blowing in the wind. I taught my grandson who lives in Ames to say "palm tree" so he understands these are not just any old trees.

No big blizzards or late season hurricanes to mess up the holidays. Going to sleep late (not interested in those Black Friday sales... I dislike crowds) and am going to pick out pajamas from Victoria Secrets which come with the little booties for when your footsies are cold. I might watch a parade or take a walk with my son or my daughter up the canal or on Hollywood Boardwalk. Breakfast with my best friend? The possibilities are endless.

I'm rambling, because truth is one of my best friends died on Thanksgiving so it's always a little difficult for me. And, the Mumbai Massacre happened on Thanksgiving in America... and well I have great memories of Thanksgiving past with my Aunt and Uncle. But... my sister in law is cooking, my guy is carving, she is making steamed veggies for me or roasted and it's good to be with family.

So.... is it worth traveling or not?

Sometimes I think the best thing we could do for such days is to go down to the beach, get a few rooms, bake a turkey in advance, cut it up... make some side salads, some good drinks, some fun desserts and just go swimming like the natives do. I'm a Beach girl..that's the truth of it. Lived two blocks from the beach for about 20 years of my life... my answer to anything is lets get a room somewhere by the beach and...

Air Travel? I know I will when I have to but I am not looking forward to it. Truth is there are some people who are raised with beliefs that leave being touched in private parts for your family, doctors or I suppose child molesters who get put away in jail. Not something a stranger at an airport who got a HomeLand Security job is supposed to do and I do not believe it is going to stop an attack, it's just plain stupid. Ridiculous... the next bomber will not have it in his underwear or his shoe but somewhere else... no two terrorists are the same as no two hurricanes are the same.

If your idea of being at home and relaxing... stay home, stay in your PJs, watch the parade and old movies and eat frozen dinners with pumpkin yogurt for breakfast and frozen dinners with stuffing and pumpkin pie... if you need family, sometimes ya gotta travel.

Either way enjoy the holiday, enjoy whatever you do and enjoy your weather.

Here's a link...

http://www.snowmancam.com/

We are moving into weather and I am watching Gaylord the Snowman from my home in Miami.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=___lTKpFBrY

Why There Are NO Named Storms

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticSatellite.aspx?animate=true

Illustration of an answer. As the line for next week's Burn Notice goes.. I've always been a bigger fan of show than tell.

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticSatellite.aspx?animate=true

Meanwhile...home home home and going out for breakfast and will post later. Suffice it to say it's slim pickings for tropical systems this November in the Atlantic though no one has told that wave it ain't gonna make it. Who is right the wave or the experts?

Stay tuned for this and more upcoming tropical matters!

Besos Bobbi
ps... oh yes real Cuban Coffee

Random Falling Leaves and Music

Really don't have time to post this morning so this is going to be a fast moving post that some will get and others will lose interest in and others will wonder if I really have a degree in English??

Leaves are falling and I finally get the song that my Grandma Mary played on the piano so often for me. Loved that song, finally get the falling leaves part. Up in NC for a few days and know that next time I return from Miami the leaves will be gone... blown away or frittered away, one by one and there will be bare trees and blue sky peaking through the barks of the trees. I'll be able to see sunset again through the trees and the church steeple in the morning light. For a tropical girl it's bizarre to see what looks like God put on camera lens for an artsy shot to get some good fall postcards out on the display racks at RDU.

I'm trying to figure out why Victoria Secrets can't get lipstick to stay on for more than fifteen minutes or is that the point... the kisses take the color away? Nice colors, they just don't stay on. And, the good ones dye your lips or create cracks and dry them out. How hard is this? Thinking it's become like the quest for the Holy Grail.

Worrying that the strawberry bath did not add red back into my hair. I'll be pissed but well what's done is done and it's not all that hard to undo if that is a problem.

Love buying Christmas decorations of stars that glitter and I hang then in the window, most are Stars of David anyway so that's the start of my holiday decorating. Cannot wait to see Macys on Miami Beach though know it was always better as Burdines.

Did you know they do not sell Evening Wear in Sears in Raleigh? This now explains why any "fancy" event I have ever gone to ...women are wearing boring duds that are one step up from what we would wear to Publix in Miami and I might take that back...as in Miami we have hot chicks of all ages and Nationalities who dress better at Publix than they do here in North Carolina. What can you expect from any place that felt the need to put the word "North" in their name???

Chasing fall foliage pics instead of storms...this is what my life has come to?? Well, I do love color and weather.

Hoping to chase weather in a week or two in the Keys..anything will do.. a stray waterspout?

Tropically speaking models are actually developing something in late November in the Carib and am thinking it's that wave that rolled off of Africa seemingly blind and oblivious to the New Release that the Cape Verde Season ended. Bizarre but beautiful.

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticSatellite.aspx?animate=true

So, going to the gym on this gray day and going to dance my tropical blues away.

Fins look good with Thigpen...rhymes...enough with the Chads..........

Burn Notice was fun... Hawaii 5-O is fun and it's funny I am watching it with my special someone every week when it used to annoy the hell out of me.

Special someones abound it seems and I am blessed with people who are really special...something about special people that makes you just go with it and pray the insanity never ends.

Incredible song, a source of light and laughter and a melody that weaves in and out of your heart.

Time is funny....who would ever think that my son and the son of Manis would end up playing in the musical sandbox with the Marcus Boys... was obviously destiny.

And, destiny is funny. Live out your destiny. As a very ....difficultly annoying person once said... if you have a passion for something... go after it, do your passion, live your passion and you will be successful. Hate when they are right.

Poor Bobbi.... forever mixing up my pronouns...good thing I got that English degree when I was young before they messed up my grammar skills. Oh well... always got the A for content not for grammar...did I not??

Besos Bobbi

Ps...need a coat to go to the gym, hate wearing layers, cannot wait to get them off. Have to walk between the falling leaves, will the falling birch leaves make my hair more golden I wonder and Levi if you are reading this... I love you and my other sons and stalkers...love you too!

Dear Santa...

All I want for Chanukah is an early present of a Tropical Storm Virginie... maybe 50 mph winds to hit South Florida the Sunday morning after Thanksgiving... November 27th. Small, weak little system that follows the Clipper and moves north against all odds as a frontal boundary dips down but doesn't dip down enough and some tropical anomaly creates a small corridor. Moves in around Hollywood Blvd...slides across West Palm Beach and Palm Beach and chugs NE out to sea suddenly. A little wind, a little rain, a little tropical hype (Cantore flies into town and Stephanie comes home for the holidays) and I get some neat pics and feel the wind on my face one last time this tropical season.

Short of that... a Dolphin Win today would be really good!!

Keep watching... am going out and enjoying the sunshine ...

Besos Bobbi
Ps..I know it's a long shot but hey sometimes long shots play out.

Virginie... feels very Thanksgivingish... Panana doesn't deserve a Virginie...


:)

Pink Popsicles & Blue Canes

I think the development in the Caribbean is going to be pushed off until the big system in the Atlantic lifts up and moves out a bit. Heavy surf up and down the coastline from the system off shore. Models are hanging with it so we keep watching.

I wore boots tonight. Cute, white, fluffy boots with buckles... some lady comes over to me to tell me how cute they were. She then proceeds to tell me it's not cold enough for boots. Can't say exactly what I wanted to say to her back... Listen, weather is relative and it's Mid November and if I want to wear boots, cute boots I am cold enough :)

It's the hurricane season still, there are showers down in the Caribbean... until the plug is pulled on the hurricane season we will watch the showers in the Carib even if they are not doing much.

Nice loop, click on it and watch it loop de loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

Try this music for your listening pleasure.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pIz2K3ArrWk&feature=&p=4C6B0DB841170CFF&index=0&playnext=1

In honor of those up north who are dealing with their first strong snow fall and the magical, mystical things that can happen to you when you watch the sky... the trees bend in the wind...the first flakes of snow fall ...the Northern Lights.

I don't need snow to tell me that I am cold and want to wear cute boots... I'm a weather girl. We like to wear cutting edge clothes :) I mean it's not June, June is too soon and November is not. Boots are hot. They keep your toes warm :)

So... keep watching the tropics, keep watching the waves along the coast and keep doing what you love to do best, don't let others tell you that it's too cold to wear a tee shirt in November in Savannah and don't let people tell you it's too warm for boots.

And, if you want a pink Popsicle... get a pink Popsicle and enjoy it!

Sweet Tropical Dreams...

Bobbi

Orange for Fall

NHC is going with an orange theme for fall... 30% chances on Virginie forming down in the Carib. The Models aren't exactly jumping all over this system but they aren't totally ignoring it either.

I figure by Saturday night I'll be in a better position to see what really is going on down there.

Either way...enjoy the Fall if it's a walk on Lincoln Road on South Beach or in Vermont chasing falling leaves.

Besos Bobbi

XRAY Vision Watching the SW Carib . . .

This is why people come to my blog and other sites to find out about what is still invisible and might soon show it's tropical face. Using model analysis and watching satellite trends and understanding historical patterns we know that there is a reason that the season does not end until November 30th and sometimes even extends beyond that. The peak of the season is definitely over, but long shot storms develop in regions that are far removed from the first, falling snowflakes of winter and balmy breezes in Miami.

If you go to the National Hurricane Center's website it tells you there is no tropical development today but it doesn't tell you what might develop next week; secrets are kept locked up tight under the guise of low probabilities and forecasts that might not verify. There is no Tropical Weather Update on TWC as they are updating possible snow totals in Colorado and places where it snows often this time of year. The rain falls in the Southwest Caribbean this time of year as well and that is what I am watching.

Sometime next week a system may develop and may shoot out of the pinball machine one last time, another steel marble left in the barrel about to shoot out and try not to hit the bumpers of Central America and the Yucatan and move north towards the Gulf of Mexico. Hey, not a mission I would like to take on but this is 2010 and the Tropical Atlantic is still hot in some places and those places bear watching.

So...keep watching with me.

In other worlds it's a writing morning while I wait to enjoy Burn Notice in the evening and take care of some business not so tropical. Reading email I came across this cute little astrological forecast for the day and thought ....ummmmm...ummm...

From Rick Levine's Astrological Horoscope for Capricorns....
Thursday, Nov 11th, 2010 -- If you have a big secret now you might make a whole lot of fuss about something unimportant just to distract everyone's attention from lingering on the real deal. But you can keep up the shell game for only so long, because it drains too much of your psychic energy. Consider what emotions -- yours or someone else's -- might be stirred by sharing your vulnerability. Don't just blurt out your truth without having a sensible strategy that leads to a healthy closure

So, am keeping ma little mouth shut and going to do about my Thursday wondering what to cook up for Shabbos and just exactly how to develop a character I am writing about in a story.

Besos Bobbi!!

Ps...for the musically inclined go take a Journey into the Past and listen to some jazzy tune and send me some chocolate! Guess it's the wrong season for chocolate covered strawberries....what is this the season for I wonder? Chocolate covered pumpkins....ewww...noo .... keep thinkin.

Spirit of a Storm

is Country Music :)

Ain't nothing happening in the tropics tonight. The system that brought so much rain to the Virgin Islands has moved on out to the Atlantic as predicted. Not much to say about the tropics but a lot to say about the spirit of the storm. Now if you look at any old Hurricane Map you will see....that all of those places that get hit so often are pretty much within the boundaries of Ole Dixie...the South... Country Music so... I'm watching the CMAs and thinking Carrie Underwood looks like an angle in a purple gown singing her heart out.

So.... here's a song for y'all and y'all know who you are ;)

Sweet Tropical Dreams.. Bobbi

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYNkGRYurIc

Is Virginie Forming SW of the Virgin Islands? And, Music and Mumbai

I know, it's November and fronts are marching across the United States and sunlight is lighting up the landscape outside despite a cold steady breeze but down in the Caribbean, in the heart of the Tropical Atlantic there is a system that is being watched by the National Hurricane Center to ... possibly develop. I've been watching it since it blew off the tail of Tomas a few days ago but didn't give it a high enough chance to mention it even here online. The NHC gives it a 10% yellow chance and models would take it NE out to the open Atlantic.

It is worth mentioning though... as is the fact that today is the last scheduled day of the Tropical Update on TWC so if you need a fix to watch it one last time this year...try and catch it. Personally, I think they will have to run a few more before the 2010 Hurricane Season is over.

I have a friend who loves to go in close up and personal while watching satellites... I mean talking loves to see the hairs on the back of the neck of each developing new cell. I like to sit back and take a wide view, look at the whole set up... probably some leftover part of the way I used to do International Relations... way back when. Everything is connected and I like to see the larger view. So...here is my loop to watch the possibly developing storm in the Caribbean..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

As for the larger world beyond the edges of the Wide Atlantic Water Vapor Loop Cyclone Jal has killed more than 30 people in India, far...far...far away but in that part of the world someone died who was some one's whole world and it is worth mentioning as we are all especially focused in the news these days on India.

http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v5/newsindex.php?id=541417

You know... being a part of Lubavitch keeps me connected to the world as we are a worldwide movement and many of my closest friends over time have been from India. I had a best friend in LA who is now in Pittsburgh (we do move around a lot) and I have a close friend here now who is from Sri Lanka ...by way of Canada. They are similar women but different but similar in their warmth, love of laughter and a funny sense of humor... love for their family and friends and their love of sharing. I am blessed to have been close to both of them. To me India is not a place far away in an Atlas but a place I understand better now then when I was a little girl growing up in Florida. Lord I loved to read an Atlas, all those maps and stories on climate and elevation :)

India is especially meaningful for me today as it is the anniversary of the passing ... of the murders of people who were killed in the Mumbai Massacre two years ago on what was Thanksgiving Day in America. Two years ago I was cooking a big meal for my big family while trying to get away and attend a Farbregen at Bais Menechem when my world was shattered with the news of what was happening in Mumbai...so far away. But, not so far to me. A child was saved and his parents were killed...his mother was pregnant with the sibling he never knew when she was tortured and killed. Sorry to be a downer here but reality is reality.

Hurricanes are not as dangerous as terrorists and can be prepared for...terrorism claims victims who have no chance to run from the water or hide from the wind as the little boys nanny hid him from the terrorists before she ran for their lives. A pregnant mother tied up and bound and being tortured in front of her husband's eyes could not run and hide. They died. They were killed. Reality bites and that is the truth.

So, why do I bring this up today on my blog on the tropics? Because, everything in life is connected in some way... we are all connected, as a group of connected people we can do so much to make the world a better place. If we sit in our rooms and hide from the world we can't change the world and make it a better place.

How to change the world? Do acts of goodness and kindness. Give Charity...both of the monetary kind and of the kindness kind by our acts. Do a Mitzvah... a good deed... do it for yourself, do it for the people who were murdered in Mumbai in their memory. Each good deed begets a good deed, a smile begets a smile... give a smile away and you will get one back in return.

Do what you can.... send money to the victims of Haiti or to your local Synagogue or Church or to the Boyscouts of America or help work out at some community garden where the food is donated to people in need of food.

Make a difference in some one's world today... do it for me here in cyberspace as I need to know I made a difference beyond the world of the tropics and afternoon thundershowers that rain in both Miami and Sri Lanka :)

http://www.chabad.org/special/campaigns/chabadindia/mitzvot_cdo/aid/773655/jewish/

What-Can-I-Do.htm

Something that explains who Rivky was...one of the many murdered but the one I mentioned earlier.... a bit to understand what a good soul she was and why she should be remembered today and every day.

http://www.crownheights.info/index.php?itemid=29849

And, as for the musical part of this program... here is a song that was made to remember the people murdered at Mumbai and to raise money for their survivors by a group of people in NY in the Jewish Music Industry who made a difference... in the way they knew best as music breaks all barriers and brings joy even in sad moments...it takes us higher, it inspires... it inspired me, thank you for making it!

Besos Bobbi

Thanks for listening and getting off the proverbial soap box ... do a good deed today please!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V7W6nQTc_L8

Tightly Wound Storm Up North...Not Tomas But... where the models had it

Came on for a few minutes just to post pics... I remember models taking Tomas up that way and doing the loop de loop and everyone made fun of the models.

Often I have seen models play out .... yet not in the way we thought they would.

Tomas got sucked up, torn apart and basically shredded but the energy is there none the less.

Snow.... shows it's face again.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html

News link:

http://blogs.wsj.com/metropolis/2010/11/08/weather-journal-snow-makes-its-nyc-debut/

There will be lots of stories tomorrow in the news, pictures of snow flurries and winter wonderland headlines getting people in the mood for shopping ... shopping for boots and sweaters and such!

Going to sleep.... sweet tropical dreams... no songs... just whistle Winter Wonderland a little bit cause winter is obviously here.

Bobbi

Nothing Tropical ... Lots that topical... musing

I think this pretty much says it all....

Though there is a tale that will be told out day by day, hour by hour, month by month as the days change from sunny to rainy to snowy to icy to a sunny day again. Weather always changes, it's reassuring, it's a lesson in life. Rainy days give way to bright sunny days when the flowers bloom bright and beautiful.

This is the time of the year when I branch out in my morning news surfing... Nothing tropical and don't really want to read too much topical on football ....though how bout that Brett Favre? Still has a bit left in him it seems.

I couldn't get onto www.CrownHeights.info to save my life ...overload from people all over the world checking in to look at photos from the Kinus (convention) in NY. So, I looked back through some pics from Purim of last year when I was in Crown Heights, snow was on the ground.. let me restate this... snow was ALL OVER THE GROUND as I was there for the now infamous "SnowCane" and I smiled. Of course, a few pictures more and I was back in Miami with pics from Lincoln Road with orchids hanging from trees and Rollerbladers rollerblading by.

So, am not going to write a review of this past Hurricane Season as it is not over until it is over and according to my calendar it is not over until November 30th and will think on it in a few weeks. It's always possible that moisture will bubble up down in the Carib and convect again but the Mid-Latitudes are a bit zonal these days, so zonal that the energy from Tomas is playing out the way the models showed it and he is going more west to east than off to Boston for the big windstorm they are having today. You think I only pay attention to Boston for the Red Sox??

http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/2010/11/

wind_advisory_i.html?rss_id=Top+Stories

Watch the beautiful, atmospheric ballet play out here:

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticSatellite.aspx?animate=true

So, today is a day for going through things, getting back on track and listening to some good music while watching the bright sunshine and think on taking a walk or just waiting to exercise at Zumba.

Today is a day for making seasonal vegetables like the Brussels Sprouts I bought still on the stalk yesterday and a nice big spaghetti squash and possibly throwing in a batch of apple pumpkin soup if I can find a good recipe online. When you hear music you have to dance, when you see fresh vegetables from the season in the market you have to enjoy them... everything has a season, a time in the sun. Some old poster comes to mind on a wall in a bedroom from years ago, to every season or something like that.

So.... watch the sats spin and see if something else spins up and if it doesn't... watch winter descend upon our beautiful land.

And, listen to music and enjoy the sunshine because tomorrow it may rain ...and rain too is a blessing :)

Besos Bobbi

Ps... as for the music... listening to my friend's sons singing and amazed at how much talent our kids have :)

You can buy the CD and hear it in excellent quality ...I'm listening while I work.

http://www.mostlymusic.com/tracht-gut.html

Tomas Goes Flat... So do the Fins . . .

..TOMAS LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... 

Well, that's about how I feel about the Miami Dolphins today.... went flat....

Wish Coach Sparano would start pulling his Quarterback when he starts throwing interceptions, which he does every game and more and more as he is behind. His completion rate on interceptions must be really high.

Tomas keeps flaring up, despite being told he is no longer "tropical" and can't see much else happening other than him doing the Fishing Lanes dance.

So, friggin frustratin. The Fins... not Tomas. What did you really expect after all from a late season Tropical Storm?

I do expect to win when playing football and when a player is playing as badly as Henne is (lack of leadership on the field, overthrown ball, panic behavior rather than staying in control and multiple interceptions) I expect him to be pulled and send in the second string... options are important in football and seems Coach Sparano is going to continue to march steadily towards mediocrity. Pathetic.

Listen that's me... if I am not watching TWC I am watching ESPN or CNN and he is no Brett Favre.

So... watch Tomas disintegrate, along with the Miami Dolphins season...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goe

s/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

And, if you are really starved for tropical action you can do what most my weather friends are doing... watching BoB or what we call the Bay of Bengal.

Later.............Bobbi

Hurricane Tomas... again

Not really a remake as much as a Second Act or Third Act I suppose.. either way just noting the upgrade of Tomas back to Hurricane.

...TOMAS REGAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES INTO THE OPEN

ATLANTIC...

That was the headline I came home to tonight. Had a nice late night dinner out at a friend's house and have been reminded on facebook, in gmail and on my hurricane sites that we must change the clock back ...cept the only thing that needs changing is one old weather radio alarm clock and the microwave and I am not sure about the microwave. A few of my watches will be right once again as I rarely change them or look at them.. just use them for bracelets.

And, I am going to bed. Going to dream of Miami Dolphins dancing into the end zone in my sleep. No fumbles. No interceptions.

There is much discussion on Tomas circling the Caribbean like in a Conga line of one, but I find it hard to believe it won't be sucked up into the Atlantic or fall slowly apart and out of steam. Will see.

Either way... try not to worry... go to bed. Sleep.

Listen some storms are flops and some are Killer Canes. Tomas killed people in Haiti ..so far 6 or 7 but am sure the number will be higher but it could have been much, much worse. Some storms go quietly into the night.. will see what the models say on Tomas but aside from his last blast of wind intensity and regaining the name (what is in a name??) not much more should happen, strike that.. will happen.

Sweet Tropical Dreams

Bobbi

Tomas IN The Windward Passage

Tomas is shooting the Windward Passage, the body of water between Cuba and Haiti..not a movie but am sure I saw one years ago and it stayed in my mind.

Official latest info from the NHC:

000
WTNT31 KNHC 051748
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
200 PM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010

...CENTER OF TOMAS ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...

Good storm. A kind storm. No matter what damage Haiti has it will be nothing compared to what it could have been. Ironically, the Dominican Republic is getting slammed with a strong band of storms right now far from the center of Tomas. Who says prayers don't help?

Watch the loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

Look how neatly he fits in there :)

Conjures up sailing ships and old movies and a smile on my face.

Good Shabbos, see y'all later when we see just where Tomas is going.

Bobbi

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yS1Y6ahuq0

Hurricane Tomas Moving NE @ 10 MPH

I sure wish he'd pick up some speed, the faster he goes the easier it is for those in his path.

Waking up this morning, watching coverage of Hurricane Tomas on the television and it occurs to me again and again how I would take a hurricane over an earthquake anytime. You can prepare, you can have some small semblance of a sense of control. Nothing is more unsettling than to feel the earth move and I am not talking about a Carole King song. Seriously, the one thing we rely on is the ground is solid beneath our feet, the sun rises and sets as does the moon but when suddenly there are little circles in your coffee and hanging plants begin to sway without a breeze in the sky and the floor beneath you shakes... that is scary indeed. As someone who has lived in L.A. and West Hollywood... would most definitely say I would take a hurricane anytime over an unexpected strong earthquake. Either way they need help so please donate. Pick your charity of choice or find a group who actively works with sending aid to Haiti.

http://www.foodforthepoor.org/

www.redcross.org

As for track...it really doesn't matter that much unless he intensifies so rapidly that he wraps all of the moisture into a small, little ball moving 25 mph forward speed through the Windward Passage.

After Cuba and Haiti...where does he go?

Turks and Caicos and then it gets murky. Either he becomes tangled up in the trough and becomes a baroclinic system and it out of here fast or he lingers around a while.

Keep watching. Dig into your pockets and donate what you can. Stay safe and have a good weekend and be glad you are not threatened with life or death issues like many in Haiti are this tropical morning.

Besos Bobbi

Ps....again info on Tomas is below, current as of 8 AM.

LOCATION...18.8N 74.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

Tomas Getting His Act Together.. heading back to hurricane strength

And, he is moving more than north than NNE... I'd say just East of North but hard to tell.

Either way he is wrapping up and going green on the funktop and hopefully shooting the Windward Passage after affecting Jamaica and parts of Cuba. As I said yesterday... Gitmo should get Tomas more than any other area and hopefully the strongest storms will stay away from the Earthquake ravaged areas of Haiti.

Special bonus regarding intensification is tha

t the stronger storms will wrap and there will be less of a messy area of strong weather. Still, there will be storms that will rain down upon Haiti and there will be added misery to an already devastated area and there will be loss of life.

Why?

Back in the 70s I went to Haiti. Som

ewhere there is a picture of me standing in front of a mountain top that is so green it almost hurts your eyes to look at it in the bright sunshine. The water so turquoise, the countryside so green. It looked

a lot like the picture here with the nice cruise ship and the tropical looking mountainside.

Unfortunately, most of Haiti does not look like that anymore. It's brown and it looks a lot like some hillside that some Western Movie was filmed in somewhere around the San Fernando Valley years back... sad but true. So, any rain will rush down the moutain side and whoosh a river of mud will go with it.

Gitmo can handle rain. The Windward Passage is the perfect place for this storm to go... and now current tropical predictions call for it to become a Hurricane once again after going through the Windward Passage and on it's way into the Turks and Caicos.

Seriously hope that this trend continues and there is more hype to the Haitian coverage on TWC than it warrants with the current changes in his track. Either way if attention is brought back to Haiti and people see that they can make a difference by becoming involved in charities that support the recovery then some good will come from this tragedy.

I think the 11 PM will be a continuation of the current package out of the NHC with some good discussion on probabilities of continued intensification and hopefully some good guidance on the models that have Tomas looping around or dying out or ramping up into a monster. Come on... we should be better than this... but... this is the tricky part of Tropical Forecasting. Take a Cape Verde Hurricane westbound in August and we know what it will do. Take a pesky Tropical Storm in November battling shear and frontal boundaries over still hot water and you just never know what it will do.

989 mb of pressure was found by the Hurricane Hunters, not sure if the winds will correlate as fast but the picture above shows what Tomas is doing tonight...he's beginning to look like a Hurricane again...or near hurricane strength. Remember, Tomas has tasted blood down in St. Lucia earlier and he has a history of blowing up fast just before landfall so do not underestimate Tomas. South Florida has again lucked out and will experience a beautiful blast of cool weather, blue skies and a brisk breeze after that frontal boundary goes through.

The Bahamas are next on his travel package and unlike some who are dreaming on Fall in Asheville or their first snowfall of the season Tomas has other things on his mind. I suppose there is a good possibility that a part of Tomas could do something funky and get stuck roaming around the tropics as some models have shown but it's more believable that a front this strong should pick up Tomas and take him away.

Only time will tell.

No music tonight...just a loop for you to use to watch this tropical dance play out. It's not a laughing matter, not a comedy or even a musical comedy. Nope... this is as real and dramatic as tropical weather gets and it's being played out in real time.

Good place to watch conditions deteriorate down there is on www.hurricanecity.com. Link that takes you there below:

http://www.hurricanecity.com/wx/portauprinceobs.htm

Another great thing to watch other than a funktop loop is the following video being shown nonstop on Hurricane City.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/live/

Here you go... watch for the greens to take over, at the moment they are waning... again only time will tell. Look at the frontal boundary in PF yellow and Sapphire Blue pull Tomas up and through the Windward Passage.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-ft.html

As for me... going to bed. It's been a long day, a lot of drama, a lot of healing, a lot of silliness and a lot of me finding ways not to write things I need to write and not talking shopping lists or menus. Had some incredible Acorn Squash with Maple Pepper and Thyme seasoning, some fancy brown rice blend with that strange brown condiment ...Braggs and vegetables from the Health Food Store and salad and gosh I love shopping in Health Food Stores... I get lost :) Like the old Wild Oats that is now Whole Foods on South Beach that used to be Forte Market which used to be lol....either way whatever it was it is now a Whole Foods and around the corner from the Gourmet Carrot.. if you have a chance, stop in.. also good food and you can watch the world go by in style.

http://southflorida.menupages.com/restaurants/gourmet-carrot/menu

So... that's all for tonight. Links but no songs, because it's a serious situation.

I take it back. I found one.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p0Bee1ydzvA

Sweet Tropical Dreams

Bobbi

(does it really say Bee?? I need sleep and staring... good song, pretend to sail away on an old schooner through the Windward Passage... nite)

Tomas, The Saga Goes On.... Models Do A Betsy?

So, my brother called or sent some messages on a day of message madness to tell me that the new models are doing a "Betsy" meaning Tomas will race out of the Carib and turn back again. Course he didn't say one model had him doing it in NYC... hard to believe that Tomas will end his life as a back door cold front ...tho stranger things have been seen around here.

Tomas is a weak tropical storm... been getting texts and advisories all day... it reads like a Soap Opera. Boy tries to get girl, boy loses girl, girl finds another boy, boy still loves girl and doesn't want to let go and then girl finds boy on the Internet and they end up trying to get married in a hurricane in Jamaica but boy gets blown away and ends up in Kansas, girl runs off with the Scarecrow. Love hurts. Weather is weird. Boy is not dead, come back from near death experience, makes a fake name and a movie and doesn't win an Oscar but wins back the girl.. kinda sort of...

See the notes I have stringing the advisories together like pearls.

...TOMAS HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET...

..HURRICANE HUNTER DATA SHOWS TOMAS CHANGING LITTLE IN STRENGTH...

CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 MPH

...CENTER OF TOMAS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMAICA AND

HAITI...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED FOR CUBA...

Life is messy like the tropics... this storm is one of the messiest ones around or maybe just par for the course for November.

I cannot see it getting far enough north that it does a nose dive over over Rhode Island and Connecticut. I mean seriously?? Looks like it's drawing a nose on Cape Cod on that one model. Not sure what the GFDL is smoking.. maybe chopped liver???

I do think it will get picked up and pulled out to sea after it comes together at the last minute and well even a Tropical Storm with a broken wing learns how to fly.. ya know?? Tomas is going to FLY through the Windward Passage ... hopefully. And, I do think he is finally coming together...

I think Florida is safe .. from this one. Am sure a November storm would come in with a more funky path from the SW complete with twisters and cold weather.

Life is short for tropical storms... luckily musical memories are 4ever!

Besos Bobbi ;)

Ps could find a better one but this is more like being a fly on the wall.... .... .... and be real happy I didn't play the other ones....

Tomas Aims At Gitmo, Windward Passage & Haiti

Well, to be honest I really think if this system had a strong center it would go over Haiti but it's basically nothing more than a Tropical Depression and I think the NHC is erring on the side of safety and keeping it a Tropical Storm. Hey... keeps everyone focused on praying the people of Haiti get spared so works for me.

Haiti is an island that has been using charcoal for heat and energy and they have cut down every tree they could find. My ex-husband used to say that Chelm must have been inspired by Haiti. There is no logic there except that is the way they have been living. Cut down a tree... sell it for charcoal, you make money. One friend after another from Haiti has explained to me this process and why they do it (to survive and feed their family...) and that Haiti no longer looks the way I remember it when I was there back in the 70s and it was a lush, verdant, tropical paradise.

So....any strong rain caused by upslope rainstorms intensified by the local topography can do tragic damage and create massive loss of life.

Hoping it hits Gitmo...

It's a matter of watching in real time and that is why TWC is reality TV at it's best so watch The Weather Channel and see Cantore stand in the rain and explain the drama and pray the bulk of the storm misses Haiti.

Either way, messy Tropical Storms cause more damage over a larger area than small, Category 1 Hurricanes often...

Prayers... watching...

Besos Bobbi

Tomas ... Strengthening Again

Going to wait until the morning to see where and what he really is... just making note for those of you who don't get cable and cannot tune in to the daily episodes of How Tomas Travels...

Check back tomorrow ...

Sweet Tropical Dreams...

The Trouble With Tomas

The trouble with Tomas is that he doesn't want to follow his travel plans as per the National Hurricane Center and he has as much use for the models as he does for a Trip Tik. He's not a member of AA and he's not planning on intensifying or moving until he is ready. This is more like the Little Engine That Could than Thomas the Train Engine.

There is a strong upper level low that is digging down into the Gulf and is rearranging the route out of the Carib by a few miles here or there.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html

Why hasn't Tomas organized yet? Personally, I do think that his proximity to South America hurt him and inhibited his ability to intensify. I haven't read that anywhere but it's my belief. Why? When all the discussion came out about his rapid intensification he was supposed to be higher than he is... he sort of drifted, fell, moved to the WSW and hovered just north of the coastline. Finally, he is moving away into an area that is more favorable for intensification. Has he done so? No. Why not? Don't know. Maybe someone needs to tell him. Hey... it's November and storms are often unresponsive to the wishes of the NHC so perhaps he is voting with his refusal to budge or blow up?

As that low digs down the shear should keep him in check and should pull his little developing self north across the Windward Passage. Want to believe he might clip Cuba more than Haiti and our prayers for Haiti to have an easier time will have come true ....maybe Gitmo? That's random, I know... no one has said Gitmo but I often am not afraid to say what I think might be happening even if there is no long discussion hinting at it from the NHC.

See?

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticSatellite.aspx?animate=true

So... we keep watching.

My son is recuperating and living in the promised land today... Miami Beach ;) (private joke for son who reads blog...) and he is convalescing and I am drowning in election mania watching Alex Sink's ship go down and the Republican party go up. I vote the person and their platform so I am not a knee jerk voter but loving Southwest Miami's Wonder Boy Marco Rubio winning the Senate Seat. Hard not to love someone who grew up where you did and who sees the world through the same lens and mind set.

Today when Obama went on and on about how we need to raise our school system up to Singapore and other places I thought how different his view of the world is to Marco Rubio who truly believes he IS living in the Promised Land of America and appreciative for all his parents did to get here and to see their son be born in a country where anyone can grow up to be the President of the United States.

That is the beauty of living in America... every four years we vote...and on any given Tuesday in November one candidate will win and one candidate will lose and we vote, we have our voice, we make it heard. I am conservative on some issues and liberal on others... my politics is much like my view on weather... I take them one storm at a time. Last night a political storm raged across America, now what? Clean up?

Hoping Tomas is being kind and prayers have worked and Haiti has been spared but it's too far way for me wave the yellow flag and scream victory just yet....

Keep watching and keep voting...it is what is best about America and every vote cries out the fact that we can vote for whoever we choose... that is the beauty of America. Vote for the man or woman of your choice, never ignore that gift...that right.... trust me Marco Rubio will always appreciate that right as he comes from a family that lived in a place where they did not have the power to simply vote out (in an honest election) the country's leader and I long for the day when I can dance down Calle Ocho and know that they are one step closer to being free.

Amazes me how we have traveled the world to bring Democracy to Iraq when I would prefer we would have brought democracy to our neighbor 90 miles to the south of the United States.

Besos Bobbi

Ps...I was there that day in Key West ;)

Tomas On Track to Intensify... Track Moves A Bit West

It's hard to say and am too buy watching the political election returns tonight to think too much on Tomas ...but Tomas begs us not to turn our back on him.

West... the 5 Day Track is a bit more west than it was previously and now we are hoping that Tomas can pull to the left (west) just enough to miss slamming Haiti and then pull north out towards the Turks and Caicos and into the Atlantic. But, it's November and nothing is cut in stone in the tropics.

Watching the Florida races tonight..... West is beating Klein to the north of me and to the south of me in my ole neck of the woods Marco Rubio is speaking from the Biltmore Hotel and giving an acceptance speech. Party politics aside ...nice to see a Home Boy make it to the Big Time.. especially one who drinks Cuban Coffee :) Had my fix this morning at Bonafide Bakery... Cordatito, yum yum. Will post pics tomorrow... cute place... the spirit of America... an American Flag posted in the window while people sit Cafe Con Leche and Cafecito and eat cute sandwiches that are Argentinian style. We are such a beautiful blend of peoples and no where in the country do you see it more so than in Miami.

So...Besos for tonight... Sweet Tropical Dreams and will talk on Tomas tomorrow...

Tomas Coming Back to Life...down deep in the Carib

Expected to blast out of the Carib sometime soon and go north. Looks like he has two eyes here doesn't he? Like he's watching South America and Panama even though he is supposed to take the fast train out of the Carib north in a few days.

Keep watching. The cold front that is on it's way to save Florida from tropical trouble is expected to arrive by the end of the weekend... that same cold front should guarantee that Tomas says out of trouble in Miami and follows his siblings off into the Atlantic.

Speaking of siblings... if I annoyed anyone here who has a sibling, this is National Sibling Week so go hug your siblings, cousins and extended family and anyone named Bob, Rob, Cobb, Steven or Stephen or anyone with a name with those letters in it ;) Yo...sorry, next plane to Pluto departs to Paradise at Gate 9.

So... tropically speaking the sunrise this morning was incredible, beautiful... stunning, coral and lavender competing with pale pink, grey and a hint of coppery colored clouds. One of the true beauties of living in the State of Florida is the ability to watch the sun rise or the sun set from either coast. I'll take my coast for the sunrises... then again if you live in Key West you can watch any old sun you want come up or go down every day :)

As for Haiti... asking people here to pray that Tomas does not do too much damage on top of the damage they have already had this year from other disasters and disease.

So... hang in there and enjoy the music and have a good day...

Besos Bobbi

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ecBNz6tyrdQ

Tropical Storm Tomas Rapidly De-Intensifies... Should Come Back Tomorrow

Been a quiet sort of messy day for Tropical Storm Tomas... Gray, foggy... you know those days when you just can't get your head together and wake up. Was that kind of day for Tomas.

In the world of Tropical Meteorology where predicting Rapid Intensification is the new Holy Grail we had a day of De-Intensification as a friend of mine called it earlier. Didn't exactly go poof but it definitely ended up a bit more to the South than planned and weakened dramatically.

Tonight it is a 45 mph storm on the way back and on it's way towards Haiti. America is sending an aircraft carrier down there to start with... nations are trying to be on stand by to help. Hoping he will go through the Windward Passage and pass on Haiti..that would be the biggest help of all.

So.. pray Tomas does not regain is bulk or intensity and moves rapidly on out to the ocean and out to sea.

Let's see tomorrow how Tomas is... enjoy this loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

Sweet Tropical Dreams
Bobbi