Illusions & Tropical Confusion

Look at this image below. It says a lot that is not on the Tropical Update from the NHC at 7:30 this morning.  They basically state the facts. "Nothing Happening" in the next 48 hours... sort of the way Floyd at the Barbershop in Mayberry puts up a sign and says "GONE FISHIN" . . .




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They are busy at work on old storms, look for new storms and on "projects" at the NHC over on the Florida International University Campus. And, they don't wear plaid shirts over there. Maybe in Asheville at the Climate Data offices in North Carolina, but not in Florida.. nope.

And, despite the terse official statement there is much to watch in the tropics today. Is it illusion like smoke on the water or confusion, but it's a difficult season that we are headed into.

No they aren't off fishing...they maybe wish they were, but they aren't...they are looking at data and doing their things at the NHC. Mind you over at the HRD building they could be fishing on their lunch break, but alas they are landlocked over at FIU and they are working while we go fishing. Is that a beautiful building? Trust on the inside and on the outside.. HRD AOML offices have the best location in Miami.




As for the tropics...

The models last week kept showing a system forming close in along the NW coast of Florida. I haven't forgotten, but been watching what is not illusions on a long term model loop.

Note there IS weather just where the models said there would be last week for this coming week.



A front dipped down into the Gulf of Mexico and is there in place... but was the close in tropical depression or storm an illusion or a real possibility? Time will tell and that time should be really soon.

The Canadian no longer shows it, and now shows a system breaking through the strong high in the Atlantic? Hmmnnn ..... someone needs to take a look at that model and fix something maybe. Could that happen?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2013063000&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

The GFS tries to close something off and loses it and then tries in vain to close something off in the BOC and seems to  lose it. Better luck next run...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2013063006&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

I'm going to go out on the proverbial limb and say we should have tropical action in the Caribbean or the Atlantic around 4th week in July... maybe sooner, but things should really heat up then.

Maybe until then if you want to do some tropical reading you might want to read up on the difference between hurricane shutters and make sure your home and family are properly protected...

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/shutters/index3.html

Here's a peak... it's a good page to read look at and to take to your little tropical heart...

In the Pacific Dalila is dancing along the coast of Mexico teasing everyone, though she should mvoe out to sea with only a few possible wave and wind effects along the western beaches.



In FLORIDA...............there is a strong tropical flow coming straight up from the Caribbean of tropical moisture, but nothing organized. Just a surge of tropical moisture in an already hot and wet summer. Again, I remind you that wet May and June patterns that lead into July often bring tropical problems later in the Fall with flooding October storms if the patterns persist and so far they have...especially with the flow of never ending frontal boundaries moving too deep down into Dixie as late as July.

If you are in Florida... you are in the Flow for rain, rain and more rain ...then again I'm in the flow for rain in Carolina... hoping it lets up for July 4th...

Miami Beach, FL

Sunday 11:00 AM

Mostly Cloudy

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Precipitation: 70%

Humidity: 65%

Wind: 1 mph

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As for me.............I'm going to live in the here and now and go out and have fun today. Got a list of goodies that need to be bought and things that need to be done and some things that don't need to be done, but I'd like to do. And, as always I'll be watching the weather.                                    

No longer stalking the baby... seems he stopped posting around 10 hours ago from the Fountainbleau.. maybe his battery died? Hope he's okay...........   to quote a song he's so far away.

Besos Bobbi

Ps............I'm here in Mayberry ;) thankfully without Opie and can't believe I thought First Sundays in Pittsboro was this week... it's next week...duh....today is June 30th...

That's a color picture .... but the sun is finally coming out...

Love First Sundays in Pittsboro and the places we go afterward and then.. I go home to  Miami :)

Good Music....good micro brews and coffee shops and a fun day out ...weather permitting.

http://visitpittsboro.com/events/first-sunday-and-downtown-festivities

See...Siler City.. I was not making up the Mayberry thing ;)