Todays Wxr - Huge High Problems - GOM Hurricane Highways

 

Love the juxtaposition on Mike's page.

Like a trip thru his mind.

Today's alert area.

Fairly big.

Bullseye Oklahoma/Kansas!

On the left we see feed of moisture in GOM.

Where the moisture goes today could bring trouble...

.... in the next few weeks IF something develops.

Below we see the Mijmic.

Big High Pressure in Atlantic cranking ...

...everything circles around it.

Map showing the huge High showing us the highways.

Highways of moisture and where it flows!

Where the moisture goes!!

Let's look at June Storm Tracks.

(this is late May as well...)

So if you look at the blue area where storms form and track in the GOM as well as off the SE coast, the black area to the right of that this time of year is the huge High pressure seen in the images above. The tropical juice aka moisture seen on the Mimic Image above is shunted around the high and comes up from the Caribbean (and EPAC) and is shunted into the GOM where it often can spin up a surprise, home grown problem that manages to get a name and in this case that would be Alberto IF it happens.

As we are watching hurricane highways this week, it's a good time to review a few famous early season A storms that took this particular road trip through the Gulf of Mexico!

Agnes 1972

Typical track.

In this case it became a flooding event.

A very widespread inland flooding event!

From Wikipedia. Send them money ...if u use them.

Alma below!! 

Similar track. Historic Pattern.

Rain signature on the left.

June storms love this track into FL.

I was a child in 1966, very young and my parents hopefully forgave me for praying it would come and hit the Miami area.... early track looked like it would be the 3rd storm in 3 years to impact Miami!! Alas, my prayers were not answered and it pulled up, up and away and then after that zig zag it slammed into N Florida near the always popular Big Bend early and late in any hurricane season. I don't remember much about what it did to N Florida, other than feeling seriously cheated in Miami!!

I was young, very young, and didn't know people could actually chase a hurricane. Who knew?

Audrey in 1957 was a Texas storm.

It shows a different road.... 

Sabine River destination.

Texas/Louisiana

Audrey was a real hurricane heartbreaker!

Major Hurricane Heartbreaker!!!!

Then in 1961 Hurricane Carla in September....

...was covered live on TV.

Not really a chase but close to a chase.

In the right place at the right time.

And, took the ball and ran with it!

America watched a hurricane up close and personal.

On the Nightly News (Google that)

TV meets Hurricane Season Live.

Way before TWC and Storm Chasers Live on line.

Be it June or September...

Texas always remembers Hurricane Season.

And in late May and early June...

Florida should be alert...especially in busy seasons.

Most of the GOM should pay close attn this year!

And remember .... 

Early Hurricane Prep is your friend.

Knowledge is power.

Phil Ferro posting links online.

Know your risk!!

True!!!!

GOM moisture meets up with....

Moisture moving up across Mexico from EPAC

Tornadoes the Problem of the Day

Old system moves off the coast.

New system revving up ...

... Pay attn to warnings in the warned area for today.

Get Ready for Hurricane Season.

Please!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter 

The rest is history...

Quiet Tropics Allow You Time To Prepare for Hurricane Season- Are There Hurricane Highways?

 

Nothing happening in the tropics today.

Always lots of speculation in May.

Racing season actually.

Fronts still racing across the USA from West to East

High Rain Totals next 7 days.

It's May and frontal boundaries don't move as fast!

I so love old maps!

Bullseye over the same region hit often of late.

My friend Rush (not that Rush) mentioned last night "hurricane highways" concept and indeed there are certain highways hurricanes seem to travel more than other roads not taken. South Florida, through the Florida Keys into GOM and often a heavy hitting hurricane in Miami makes a second landfall in Louisiana. Why? Because of the High that steered it into the GOM and didn't allow it to pull North before making landfall. 

Andrew on the left, 1926 Miami Hurricane on the right.

Similar but different.

Propelled into the GOM with a 2nd landfall.

Then there was Betsy.

Poor girl she kept trying to pull North.

But the High kicked back in and ....

...West she went into Florida Keys/SFL!

Then GOM to ... Louisana!!

Inland flooding from Hurricane Floyd.

More hurricanes than not approach from the ESE looking as if they want to visit South Beach and then curve gracefully way and take aim at Wilmington, North Carolina! Let's say Morehead City to the Outer Banks before curving out to sea again. Hurricane Floyd that punched the Carolinas badly, especially filling up all the river basins with epic inland flooding ... far inland!

South Florida has been lucky lately.

Many a hurricane has taken a hard right turn.

While that's awesome in retrospect....

...you can't rely on that happening this year.

Next we will discuss Texas Hurricane Highways.

I'll leave that for another day... 

Bottom Line:

Don't focus on news Storys and click bait.

Focus on Hurricane Preparation.

Or putting aside money to evacuate if you need to...

...or to hunker down with supplies.

Something to think on…

…. Happy May!!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

If there's one CD... record I wore out....

...staring at the fireplace burn in LA.

Definitely was this one......

Nuff Said.

Truly the Night of the Twisters… Multiple PDS Tornadoes Touching Down All Night in Oklahoma

 

add pics in the morning….

By the time you read this........the sun will have come up and we will see the horrific damage in Sulphur, Oklahoma and many other towns from Oklahoma to Kansas to ...well earlier tonight there was a warning for a town in Michigan while chasers were chasing in Oklahoma. Dawn will make the damage from the day before look doubled, tripled as this wild line snakes its way through an area known for bad tornadoes but this truly was the Night of the Tornadoes... Twisters. And, when you watch the new Twister remember that's not real and this is real........ and while many are sleeping when you wake up in Dallas at sunrise there will be thunderstorms ..... 

I wrote a friend earlier tonight on the importance of getting the word out on the dangers of the 2024 Hurricane Season. What if it's as bad as many have forecast and there are two hurricanes making landfall at the same time in different areas? Part of that letter is is below:

"ya know.... it's rare Ryan Hall Y'all is at a loss for words. One town actually got hit multiple times by and now has a flash flood alert. Amazingly the 2nd set of tornadoes missed the part of the town that's still whole. And, I know as someone who can talk as much as you and I can...that's freaky, humbling... sometimes it's hard to find the words even while you are live online"

This is truly the Night of the Twisters as there are weather warnings from Tx/Ok border to Michigan (?) and all the chasers are out there in different places getting footage of the damage which is epic from a historic perspective.  Ryan Hall has been on air live 11 hours and has raised over $130,000 by way of his squad ...to be used to help whoever they can.

The Hurricane Season is 34 days away. 

I cannot over emphasize the dangers inherent in the 2024 Hurricane Season IF the forecasts verify, and so far there hasn't been a forecast that predicts a normal or slow season so I'd take these warnings seriously. Many have said this will be like 2017, though who really knows.... one analog year from CSU is 1926 and we really do not want such a year again such as that one.  Three different Major Hurricanes... hit South Florida, Cuba and the Bahamas, each legendary in their own right. 

I'll be offline Monday and Tuesday for the end of the Passover holiday and then I'll be back ready to talk about the 2024 Hurricane Season full time as we are getting closer to Prime Time.

As always mitgating factors can show up in real time that make storm tracks take storms out to sea and inhibit hurricane development despite really hot water in the MDR as we have seen in the recent past. But, never rely on a miracle. Feel free to pray for a miracle but never rely on one.

You know the old story about the guy and the boat and the rope then the helicopter who complained why he wasn't warned by God ...variations abound. 

Get a plan. Be ready to put that plan into action. Remember the year Florida got hit by 3 or 4 hurricanes criss crossing the state with tracks and all the cartoons, it really wasn't funny............

Prioritize your personal plan....  do you have children or elderly people living with you or dogs or fish?

You can begin putting together supplies while supplies are on sale. You don't have to wait until you are in the 3 Day Cone when nothing is left at the market.

The NHC and the NWS both provide you with early warning. Way earlier than Ardmore, Sulphur and other cities tonight got though they knew in general there'd be tornadoes.

Hurricane Ian was predicted to form when it was a weak wave out in the Atlantic and the focus area was obvious and yet people complained it hit Fort Myers Beach not Tampa and it never occurred to people watching Naples it might flood? Seriously? Ask the ghosts of those who died in the 1926 Hurricane what it was like to have no warning until hours before and most thought Miami Beach was flooding due to heavy rain and knew nothing about storm surge.

Hurricanes are one of the only disasters you can prepare for in advance, and if nothing hits you ...then you have snacks for the next month or so and you can use the money you saved to evacuate to go to Daytona or Orlando. When moneity is tight the Dollar Store has great non-perishable foods you can buy for $1.25 all you have to do is hide them from the kids, your spouse or yourself so they will be there when you find yourself in the Cone and by the time you get to the store all the good stuff will be gone and all you'll find is canned oysters.     

I'll be updating in the morning with images after the sun rises. 

I'm gonna go watch Thor's video and go to sleep.

Prayers for all those whose lives were shattered tonight and who may have lost loved ones not just the place they work or their home or their school

I saw Merle sing this song once upon a time live… 

Colorful Convection in the Caribbean... EPAC Begins in 19 Days!

 

As we cruise into May....

this is where we pay attention.

Note the flow over Panana moving from the SW to NE

Also notice the flow moving NE from Mexico over the USA

Feeding the severe storms and chase weather we have ongoing.

Close up a look at this interesting box.

This region encompasses the Deep Caribbean and the Eastern Pacific. If you cut the map vertically, you will see this area as one region and what happens in one area impacts the other. Strong convection is moving off of Colombia which later in the season produces convection frequently that can develop and/or westbound tropical waves move into these juicy waters and make a tropical connection. It's a secondary Inter Tropical Convergence Zone that often feeds storm development in the EPAC. The EPAC Hurricane Season begins on May 15th so this is an area that bears watching. The fly in the ointment as seen below, is currently the flow is still from the SW to the NE meaning it'll blow back convection into our basin. Sometimes a storm forms in the EPAC and crosses over into the Caribbean early in the season.  Nothing is expected to happen, but if you're on a cruise down there the weather will be wonderful if you like stormy weather. This region also has many diving locations so it's important to watch it more than you look out into the Atlantic for tropical waves that will battle the Saharan Dust already in place moving off of Africa early this year.

A wild card is the early tropical waves running at low latitudes towards South America, sometimes in busy seasons you get an early one such as Bertha in July, but this is late April and they are just fun to watch. A brillian colorful display of convection on the various satellite images we watch, but remember it's not September nor is it even July! Wind flow will blow that convection apart and/or up towards another part of the Atlantic where water is not hot enough yet to develop. 

Stay tuned.

Prepare.

Get a plan.

During Irma's approach to Florida.....

... Miamians found a plan.

Everyone raced North towards Atlanta.

Survivors from that road trip.....

..,most likely will not do that again.

Cars were abandoned.

Gas Stations out of gas.

No Hotel Rooms ....

Just saying, panic is a great motivator.

But better to have a plan than panic!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter 

Everybody's got a cousin in Miami....

...come August and Septemeber

Everyone wants to get out of Miami 

Tropics Quiet. Saharan Dust Plumes Hit the Road.... Soon It'll Be Hurricane Season. Do You Have a Plan? Don't Blink.........

 

Our area that was highlighted yesterday....

.... is no longer mentioned.

As you can see from the loop above....

...the flow is from West to East still.

Caribbean is still out of the SW to NE

Not ready for prime time yet.

But time to think on your priorities.

Planning ahead is my best advice.

A look at the 5 day shows the HIGH.

Double barreled high on some days.

That tends to dry out the atmopshere in the SE

Fronts try and move South and collapse.

This is the MDR

Main Development Region.

Red - Saharan Dust.

The deeper the red... the stronger the dust.

Moving West towards the Islands.

Some SAL getting through.

And, there are fires in South Florida.

It's Fire Season there in the Glades.

Everything has it's season in nature. Winter is behind us, Spring is in sway and launches us towards the eventual start of the May Monsoons in the Miami area and then the Hurricane Season. We have Spring Training, Baseball and Mango Season that coincides with most of the tourists here for cool weather and outdoor festivals have gone elsewhere as really living in South Florida once the afternoon Monsoons begin at 3 PM is not for the faint of heart. 

In Raleigh my maple tree is deep, verdant green, covered with healthy new leaves illuminated by the afternoon sunshine. I can smell Summer as the flowers fade away and the Farmers's Market comes alive with local produce. 

And people here and in Miami are both talking about the Hurricane Season and the forecasts that predict we will go deep into the alphabet if all the forecasts verify.

I want people to remember one thing. When we say "prepare for hurricane season" we don't mean figure out which room you are going to ride out a hurricane in; most people pick the bathroom unless it's wide open with lots of windows to look at nature while taking a bath in which case find an interior walk in closet or a long hallway far from the front door. Preparing for a hurricane is not about the hurricane but about the long aftermath when the power is out, when the water is not yet fit to drink and your neighbor's ficus tree is in your pool. The ficus tree may also have clipped most of the tiles off of your roof but hopefully your shutters held safe.

It takes a good few weeks to get power back after a minimal hurricane in the densely populated Miami area, and so what will you do during then when there isn't even electric to run a ceiling fan?

Backgammon?

Write a novel on a lined paper notebook?

I guess you'd be busy weeding the plants and taking huge limbs of fruit trees that snapped in the wind off what was your garden.

Ask a local, ask an old timer....

What to do after a hurricane.........

Join a caravan Northbound on I95 out of South Florida stuck in traffic for hours, days. Make sure you have cans of gas to take with you as gas stations may be closed, blown away and/or not in working order.

I'm being honest. Not trying to scare you, just trying to be honest. 

It's not pretty. Those who are prepared and have a  plan, a generator and what to run the generator on are ahead of the game.

Link below. Good before and after advice.

https://www.cdc.gov/orr/infographics/br-hurricanes.htm

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Don't Blink.........

Yellow Circle in ATLANTIC? Who Had That On Their Bingo Card For April??? 10% Low Expectations................. But Yes, It's There..........

 

Quick update on the surprising early yellow X

10% NHC says not expected to develop.

But they did decide to post a special update.

When you look at this image below....

....shows why we are here today.

Red means HOT Water.

Orange red means HOT water.

But upper level winds are not there yet.......

........just because the water is hot!

And yet here we are....

I'll do a full update tomorrow.

Been online with friends staying here.

And definitely worthy of a post on a yellow circle.

Stay tuned.

Prepare for 2024 Hurricane Season.

It's only a matter of time...

IF THIS WAS MAY.............We'd Be All Over This..... Caribbean Convection

 

That' dark area in the sea of reds and golds is convection. Visible in many ways, but kind of fun to use an out of the box method here in Mid April. The Caribbean is coming alive........day by day.

Not ready for prime time yet.... 

Winds aloft blowing, flowing SW to NE

Not conducive for development.

And yet it hangs in there.

Stubbornly!

Huge sprawling Low....

...taking up the whole NE Atlantic.

Frontal boundaries moving along still.

Not there yet... still Spring.

This picture shows many things.

West to East.

New front moving East across USA/Canada

Sturbborn convection in Carib center stage.

Dry air ....early Sahran Dust.

Down low.... EPAC convection.

That's it for today.

Stay tuned.

Way tooo hot it Raleigh today.

But cool air promised for the weekend!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

Good song about that Low far away...

..on the far side of the world.