UPDATED TD 6 Forms. Labor Day Weekend Tropical Update. Thoughts on How Florence Forms and Tropical Waves in the Caribbean and RAIN Either Way... Prepare and Get a Plan B and Have a Great Holiday

TD 6

I am not ready to buy the Out to Sea solution.

The Fish Storm scenario.

It could happen.

It might not be such a locked in end game.

You can compare with the image at the bottom of the blog...

TD6 trying to break away from the monsoon trof.

As things stand now expect TD6 to take the Southern end of the Cone and if that happens they will adjust the cone a bit more to the South on each advisory. They have already backpedaled on forecast intensity. Originally this was forecast to be a Hurricane in the medium time frame, then later time frame and now the Hurricane word has been taken off the table for now. It doesn't look all that great (an in my mind never really did though models liked it a lot) and I'm pretty sure it will become Florence.  But if Florence stays weak, it gets further West most likely as it's easy to see how a strong hurricane might break through a strong ridge, but there is no strong hurricane forecast here so why would it not continue to go more to the left (West) and if it does climb some in latitude what is to stop it from trying to turn back to the left (West)? 

Intensity forecast currently a Tropical Storm.

Only 2 models break for a Hurricane.

Note the model tracks to the South...

Begin to break a bit and lunge West.

Or perhaps it stalls out a bit.

Something with timing is off with TD6

Water Vapor Image below shows a strong high.

A strong high to the N and NW of a small TD.

Things could change.

Things often do change.

Perhaps they should have named it FLO as I'm sure FLO would be a Major Hurricane. She'd create a bit stir, catch everyone's attention and then at the end save the whole East Coast and grab a lift out of town on a cold front. She might even bring us a cold front........ think on the possibilities!!

Discussion from yesterday makes FLO a cane.

I'm always been skeptical how a 75 MPH Cane...

...tries to climb in latitude so much so early?

Now they have taken the Cane out of the forecast.

Again the models shown above explain that.

So explain how a 45 to 65 MPH TS....

...busts through a strong high?

I'm waiting to see it happen.

Fish storm means less dangers to land.

Again this may be a Mermaid.

Mermaids always are drawn to land...

...to the rocks watching the sailors.

keep watching.

As for the Caribbean area we are watching.

That little bend in the force is what we are watching.

Forecast for the next 5 days is RAIN.

With or without a name.

Understand at some point something may form.

Look at the GOM now.

It may just be a matter of time.

You can see where something might form.

Less shear, Central GOM

Shear weaker.

Water warm.

Something forms in the GOM..

..it's a bull in a China Shop.

LASTLY...

For some reason people think if we don't have a big, nasty hurricane making landfall somewhere we are fine and dandy and all's good in the universe. Wrong. Weather happens with a name or without a name. Note the next few images. Weather on the rampage....

Ain't no joy in Mt. Joy today.

10 inches of rain.

More than 5 inches per hour?

Stranded school bus ...

Bet that hail storm in 1922 caused real misery.

PA still having problems with flooding.

I'm still worried on a possible ....

...Mid Atlantic Threat later this season.

Might happen.

Might not but odds are higher this year.

I forgot to mention there was a Twister in Maine yesterday.

High latitude weather events.

Amtrak is having a problem.

Amtrak train stuck in the flood.

Waiting for a rescue engine.

Ouch.

Hurricanes Happen.

Often they are Fish Storms.

Or they catch a cold front out to sea.

But Mother Nature finds a way to cause misery..

..with or without a busy hurricane season.

Let's see what happens with TD6/FLO

And the chance that something could form in the GOM.

Keep reading is you haven't done so.

If you have...thanks.

Besos BobbiStorm

Currently low chances for development.

Short term not happening.

Long term it can happen.

Note the very strong wind flow in it's immediate path.

Note to the West of Louisiana the wind flow lightens up.

When you have bars that close together it means:

Windy.

Shear.

I've said this before over and over, I'll say it again. Models are very prone to flip flop or drop something they show one day and not two days later. Shear forecasts are less reliable than where "rain" will show up. Everything is in "FLOW" and because of that it's always in movement. Hard to predict, but we keep trying. The existence of this wave that traveled from Africa is a fact, it is still there and it may move into an area where shear lessens and over warm water it can develop. Again I have said for the last few days... it needs a "center" without that center it's just stormy weather. So keep watching here is the key and know the wave will enhance the rainfall already there lingering around Florida and up in the Gulf of Mexico. I'm going with this system first as it is closest to the US and more people want to know what is happening regarding Labor Day Weekend. Keep your APPs on with notifications and check the weather and the sky often. Severe weather at the beach can pop up fast and it often takes a long time to pack up your stuff (if you are the type who brings stuff to the beach) and get back to the safety of the car before the lightning storm moves in fast.

Mike has models up on Spaghetti Models.

You can see how closed off the circulation is...

...but it's still tethered to the monsoon trough.

That deep river of blue there...

As it gains a bit in latitude it breaks free..

And swims on it's own.

Speaking of swimming.

I'm not sold on it being a FISH STORM.

It may be more of a MERMAID STORM.

Swims like a fish but ... 

...dreams of walking on land.

The high has been huge.

The high is forecast to weaken enough...

....for Florence to find that exit North.

I'm not real sold on that just yet.

It could happen.

It could also get further West and be a problem.

Don't write the end of the story for a storm.

Before said storm has really formed.

Speaking of models.

There's a long range model.

Speaking of models is synonymous with Tropical Tidbits.

Levi Cowan on Twitter has said this about the Tropical Wave.

Remember the models (especially King Euro) were Gung Ho.

Then they were less than enthusiastic.

Why you ask?

I'll add simply.

PV Streamers like Upper Level Lows...

Are complicated to fully explain and forecast.

They have in the past helped systems formed.

Often they stop systems from forming.

Fairly short blog this morning.  I'll update later today after the next set of model runs and I digest the various satellite loops a bit more. PTC6 is forecast to attain Tropical Storm strength by the NHC over the next 24 hours or so. The big question mark on the current tropical wave near the Islands that might affect Florida (as a tropical wave) and the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical wave, tropical depression or more is a longer term threat. Currently it looks like you can find a beach, go and enjoy but know you don't need a hurricane to mess up your beach plans. So......make a Plan B always!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Updated! CARIBBEAN GETS A YELLOW CIRCLE. NORMAN IN PACIFIC GOES MAJOR IN A BIG WAY. PTC6 Forms. Potential Tropical Storm. Forecast to be a TS in 24 Hrs or Less, Hurricane Down the Road. Name Will Be Florence. Tropical Wave Closer to SE Coast Being Watched. More Updates Later Today.

7 PM Update.

Things worth thinking on.

The X is where the area is currently.

The circle is where it is expected to form.

Remember this is a forecast it's not set in stone.

Expected is the key word.

Anywhere in that bigger circle.

The long awaited yellow circle in the Carib is here.

So now what? 

We watch it.

Again it will go where there is low pressure.

It will stay away from high pressure.

If shear is weak, it develops more.

Let us look at the two pictures below.

Picasso couldn't do better than Mother Nature.

Note the large area of convection in the GOM

Near where the current yellow circle is....

...note the large wave bottom right.

It has a look the wave... just saying.

I wouldn't be surprised if it develops.

Again note the closeness of the convection to it's NW.

There is a high aloft.

It only has one place to go.

High pressure to the North.

It goes WNW towards the Low Pressure.

I'm not saying it's super low pressure there now..

(Jim... talking comparatively, where there's convection... 

... the pressures are lower than to the North)

So keep watching.

Note there are already heavy rains in PR.

You don't need a name to get dangerous amounts of rain.

Note everyone's watching the shear charts.

As lowered shear will tell much of the story.

Now as for PTC6 

(almost rhymes...

PEE TEE CEE 6 ..see?)

To be clear what a PTC6 is I've shown Phil's post.

Phil is a friend. He is a good man.

A very good meteorologist.

Good explanation....

..as it can be confusing.

Now why am I talking about Norman?

I say all the time the Pacific is not my ocean...

It's a good lesson in how fast things can change.

Norman was expected to develop some...

But nowhere near as strong as it is..

Note the following discussion.

Yesterday... 

Expected to top out at 125 MPH.

Your regular run of the mill discussion.

Later Wednesday.
SHIPS model mentioned.

Rapid Intensification very high.

Talk on the ridge, direction, etc.

Expected to top out at 130 MPH.

Tonight.

150 MPH.

20 MPH more than forecast.

Now they are forecasting 155 MPH...

How high can it go?

My goodness.

I don't really mean to be sarcastic.
I mean to educate that hurricanes are unpredictable.

Even in today's age with good modeling.

Luckily Norman isn't threatening land.

Now replace Norman with the Labor Day Hurricane.

Wilma when she exploded... 

Katrina in the GOM

Never believe a forecast 100%

In the 24 hour it's solid.

3 Day forecast is very good usually.

5 Day is often good.

But when someone tells you:

"It's a fish storm"

"Stick a fork in it.. it's all over"

Do not believe it until you see it.

The NHC corrects in real time ...

...responding to what the storm does.

Models correct to reality as well.

If a hurricane is out there somewhere near you...

...or way to the South of you or SE..

Watch it.

If a strong tropical wave is forecast to develop some..

... pay attention.

Check back often.

Andrew was supposed to catch the trof to the Carolinas.

Andrew was supposed to die and was on life support.

Then something changed.

Remember that.

I'll update as needed.

If you haven't read this earlier...

...continue reading.

If not... 

Sweet Tropical Dreams.

* * *

Guess we can call today a day of Live Blogging. Not making a new post for a Potential Tropical Cyclone though the name is a good call as it's still crawling off the coast of Africa as seen below on images I've posted. Forecast discussion shows their solid belief that this becomes the 3rd Hurricane of the 2018 Hurricane Season (if you are keeping track) so not such a slow season number wise even if many were Subtropical Storms or short lived storms.

Kind of an "in abundance of caution"

They need to designate it to put up watches and warnings.

Government agencies have rules you know.

Rules are often good to have.

Guidelines.

Something I want you to think on as in "notice" in that it is a common signature as the tropics heat up. You can see where our undeveloped Tropical Wave in the Caribbean is on a thin leash of moisture to the ITCZ in the Atlantic that goes all the way back to what will be Florence. This is how storms connect and stay alive. They need moisture. Often there is a hand off of energy from one area to the other as the tropical waves progress West. Note how it sucks up the "orange energy" from the ITCZ in the MDR (Main Development Region of the Atlantic) and then starts to suck up energy from moisture down near South America. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

The link is above if this doesn't work well.

You never know with this site so posting the link as well.

Stay tuned.

More updates later as information is updated.

From earlier today.

Note the discussion on the Tropical Wave in the Carib below.

And it's something to watch.

NWS New Orleans is watching it.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=AFD&issuedby=LIX

DaBuh posted it earlier today.

He's good.

He knows where to look ....

...especially when it comes to waves.

(he's a surfer... it's a joke....smile)

Miami NWS is watching it also.

You don't need a yellow circle from the NHC..

...to know something's out there.

See Miami discussion below.

NOT in the Long Term though.

Let's call it the Labor Day Tropical Wave for now.

* * *

We went from a wave to PTC6 in hours ...

...after it rolled off of Africa.

How bout those water temps now?

We are heading into tropical trouble now.

September Remember

All the basics are up on Spaghetti Models.

Models in the short term show a Fish Storm.

F for Florence the Fish Storm.

But down the road things might change.

Is the strong high really opening up wide?

Could it snap back shut?

We will know soon enough.

NRL has the page up but few images yet.

We have just begun studying it.

That will change.

Well that's a done deal. You can see the circulation tightly wound up below. Watches and warnings will need to be hoisted it seems for the Cabo Verde Islands. Expect a Tropical Depression to form soon from the short lived Invest 90L that is being studied. I'll update this later today as watches and warnings are posted and there is more actual discussion on Invest 90L that will become Florence it seems soon. Doubtful the tropical wave in the Caribbean could develop that fast to steal that name from what is already a done deal.

https://earth.nullschool.net

Mike has the link always on his site.

Great produce.

www.spaghettimodels.com

You don't have to ask why they need to put out a package.

Often the CV Islands are the first to see the storm.

The product above tells the story.

The story's name is Florence.

You can see her clearly shown below.

This has been forecast for days to be a "Fish Storm"

Though again I have low confidence

Track is set for the next 3 to 5 days.

Beyond that I'll wait to see what develops.

I'll update later as information comes in.

As for the tropical wave close to the US that everyone is watching, but the NHC has not yet designated in tropical update as of 8 AM. That could change, but the wave itself has to change or get into a better place int he atmosphere to allow development. What concerns me is that South Florida has been plagued daily by strong thunderstorms as one tropical wave after another has crossed over that area for the last few months. They are just waves and they amp up the already unstable air into huge colorful displays of monsoonal masterpieces as people try to navigate through the traffic on I95 while taking pictures of what seems like end of the world storms. My daughter was stuck in flooding on I95 in one of those storms as the water on the highway rose fast and luckily she was able to get where she is going and drain out the car.......  

So should anything develop and get into that sweet spot where low pressure is more available and the shear is low, the tropical wave could go from nothing much to something really fast. That happens often as the waters that surround the Florida peninsular are close to 90 degrees this time of year. So while there is nothing there currently we have to watch carefully when we see a strong "robust" tropical wave that stubbornly made it across the Atlantic despite SAL and lower water temperatures and strong shear there as well. Keep watching. 

You know it's September in Miami when you wake up to "Morning Rain" and that's a sign the pattern has changed, the calendar page is about to be turned and we remember it's prime time in the tropics.

People from North Carolina to Texas this time of year begin evaluating each storm from their perspective as well as their own excellent knowledge of the hurricane history in their own part of the world. No one has to remind New Orleans as www.nola.com knows as they re dealing with the anniversary of Hurricane Katrina this week. 

Stay tuned.......it's that time of year when those tropical waves begin to Twist and Shout even if they are screaming "Fish Storms" we always have to watch them as they are prone to do some unexpected things.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter