A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Sunday, February 26, 2023
Severe Weather Troubles. Snow in NYC??? Roller Coaster Winter of 2023. CAD in the Carolinas, Warms Up, Cools Off for Weekend ... Again.
I went on YouTube this morning to see what the meteorological community is talking about and again severe weather is the name of the game. Ryan Hall is good at what he does, in that same way Mike is awesome at what he does with his Brew Crew in the morning.
Mitch is showing it in his own way.
We all show things in our own way.
A serious sliver of severe weather going to slice through Texas and Oklahoma and then move East. Though parts of that energy will move North as way too warm, moist air is moving up into the colder latitudes and that creates confusion and chaos as Planet Earth in our part of the world can't seem to decide which season it is and if you live in the Carolinas you know you can get any season you like in one week.
I'm not sure whether I like this graphic or not, but it does get the point across and captures people's attention. Strong winds, crazy wild winds may be the big player in this region. A look at the Mimic shows the problem. If you have ever been at a real rodeo you would know what is going on and how one low far away is cranking up moist air in the Caribbean with additional energy to the West whips the atmosphere around in unhealthy ways.
It's not good to have suntanning weather in February, though it may be nice for your tan, but then cold air whips right back at you. And, the plants...oh my the plants. They start to bud too early, and people plant tomatoes thinking (hoping) winter is over but everything needs to come together in it's own season for a harvest to be healthy and to get the right taste in the peaches, strawberries and well I won't even talk about Winter Wheat! What looks like wonderful warm weather to some, will produce crappy wine for 2023 in regions in the US that produce grapes for wine and many areas do.
Allan Nosoff is covering NYC weather and many who travel in and out of there follow him across the country online. He tries to pin down the right info, the correct model and tempers the hope for snow with the reality that is might just be a cold, nasty rain. Allan is a good guy, fairly tall too, and moving up in the weather world.
Back in the Carolinas........
....back at the ranch so to say.
I didn't have to even click on the model images to know which was the GFS and which was the EURO, though there is some agreement that Winter may make a last stand the first week in March. Either we will get one cold night and more of the same or the chance for some in higher latitudes and higher elevation to see some sort of wintry precipitation. Maybe.
Maybe. isn't a sentence as it is lacking a noun and a verb, but my winter in Raleigh is rather lacking too right now so I'm not interested in grammar as much as I am if we can squeeze out one burst of winter weather. Either way I'm not living and dying by the models, I'll do that during the tropical time of year.
I have a headache and I know that is not news, but it is annoying. Prone to headaches for various reasons and often they are related to weather, mold or being nervous on too many things. So going to try and chill out today and let others worry on the Severe Weather event that is unfolding and is getting enough attention. Wondering on what New York City gets this week and if it can squeeze out a few snowflakes.
Above for NYC.. Brooklyn.
Below for Raleigh, NC.
Choose the day you want to be outside wisely.
I have a confession to make. I love Cold Air Damming. It reminds me of quiet mornings in Southern California before the marine layer evaporates and the sun finally comes out. It's a touch of winter in an odd year of see saw, roller coaster weather. It's calm. There's barely a leaf moving. I lit a candle, sipping tea and smiling because this may be as much winter as I get in Raleigh in 2023! We have a bit of cold air damming going on here.
Thanks for reading. Have a good day. Hope you get the weather you want, but remember if you are getting suntanning weather in late February the flora may be getting mixed messages and your harvest may not be as good as you hoped. And, for gosh sakes .... we are far from the last frost possible so stop rushing the tomato crop! It's not over, til it's over and it's not over!
Sweet Tropical Dreams,
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Twitter mostly weather and Instagram whatever I'm in the mood to post.
Ps... not proofing this as my head hurts, my eyes hurt and going to go offline and take a nice walk around the neigbhorhood while it's beautifully cool and serene.
97 Days til Hurricane Season.... Early Tips. Buy Generators When ON SALE! Use Time Wisely...
97 days until Hurricane Season and I'm giving early, pre-season tips on ways to make your life easier should a strong hurricane come to visit your town. The best way, if you can afford it, is to buy a good generator for your specific needs while it's on sale. Some states have tax free days that you can use for one of these, but it's also more likely a time when generators may be higher priced seeing as it's weeks before the start of the Hurricane Season.
Should you live in one of those places where Winter Storm Supplies go on sale and stores try and free up their space for BBQs and Patio Furniture, take advantage of the generator sales. If you have been thinking on getting a large BBQ Gas Grill then you might find one on featured sale and at least you'll have a gas grill to cook what has defrosted in your freezer and or make fresh coffee!
Not everyone wants or has a generator. Honestly, we never did anywhere we lived. But I know from many who use them during Ice Storms in the Carolinas or after a hurricane knocks out the power it's way better to have one than not... again if you can afford them.
My mother never wanted them as she had many fears and having a generator not work right and cause deadly problems made her scared of them, insisting we could use Sterno or flashlights. To be fair, it's worth noting, my mother had an insane fear of terrazzo floors worrying one of my younger brothers running across one might hit their head on them and well... not survive. Being Southern and Jewish gives you enough material for a dark comedy of Southern Gothic Literature. Fears are high up on the ladder ...which we didn't have many of .......as you could kill yourself ... "falling off THAT ladder" and no I am not making this up.
Yet, most people feel safer and more secure knowing they can keep the lights on after a hurricane knocks out the power for weeks as has happened often in South Florida. Be it keeping the food cold in the fridge or having the AC on to get you through the long hot days after the storm has passed while waiting for the power to go out.
That's it.
Tip for the day!
Winter is trying to put on a show at the two ends of the country today... populated areas many people love and carefully avoiding the SE part of the USA.
I'm under the weather today, not Covid like under the weather, with a plain old virus that's making me sleepy, lazy and in the mood to endlessly Google various Hurricane Seasons to see which ones had record breaking high temperatures in the Carolinas as possible use for an analog year or two. Takes a while, 3 years the heat record beat in this general area were 1977, 1930 and 2017. One year average, one year super slow and one year super busy. It's not about one day but a pattern that persists that can be studied as to trends that may or may not continue to appear. Mind always thinking ya know..
Hotter in Charlotte than Miami? Make it Stop!!! Fix It!! Bring Back the Cool (Saturday Cooler) Tornado in NJ? Where's the Snow.... Freddy in Madagascar
This Winter has been one long Severe Weather Season from the Deep South all the way up into New Jersey! I was on the road yesterday, so this morning I checked my friends on Twitter to see what all the Weather News was as I'm trying to NOT pay attention to other news. It just didn't stop the whole Winter did it? NC gets "severe weather warnings" weekly rather than snow. But, next year you know it is forecast to be an El Nino so... will wait and see how that unfolds.
Photo by Jonathan Snyder online.
Incredible, need to check him out.
Would love a poster of that!
Ed Piotrowski reposted it!
I do so love Pawley's Island, but this is Murrels Inlet just up the road some. No better place than Low Country to watch the stars in the sky or the planets when they dance together. Just spiritual, art by nature all you gotta do is sit there and watch it play out in the sky or on the ground as the lights light up the marsh incredibly beautiful.
So it's forecast to be warmer in Charlotte NC today than Miami, because Miami at least gets the breeze off Biscayne Bay and the nearby ocean this time of year. But, in two days the temperature here slides down to where it belongs again this time of year before rising again fast. Roller Coaster Weather.
99 Days til Hurricane Season....
Do you have a plan?
Do you have supplies?
Have you fixed your roof yet from the last storm?
Which name calls to you?
Margot does Miami!
Cindy does Charleston!
Don makes it to Dallas!
I know IDALIA gets everyone nervous.
Gert... still around after all these years!
Bret does Bimini???
Jose does Havana?
Old time reporters would alliterate every storm somehow with literary like headlines. They would give each storm unique personality traits that made the hurricane seem more alive, like a real person or entity rather than some wind barbs and weather maps.
Big-Eyed Betsy.
Yes, she had a beautiful eye.
Deadly, disastrous.
Florida and Louisiana.
1965 was an El Nino Year.
Just saying.
Often El Nino years bring the worst storms proving the point that quality over quanity remains the same game. You may have a La Nina year where storms form everywhere but rarely make landfall, then some slow El Nino comes along and you get the A storm that's a Cat 5 Andrew in late August.
So while fretting over a lack of snow in the South and worrying on politics on the world stage keep it in mind that down the tropical road... Hurricane Season is a coming! Like it or not. Love it or hate it...
If you aren't worrying on politics on a a world stage, please share how you sleep through the night. Seriously, odd, crazy times we live in but hoping peace will prevail.
Either way... enjoy the weather, that first bird that sings in the morning or the sound of the Canadian Geese in the Carolinas flying in honking to their favorite watering hole (just heard them) or the planets dancing in the sky or the moorise out over the water.
I remember the old saying, lines we learned in Drama Class... "All the world's astage... the men and women merely players;" Shakespeare like Peter really knew how to use a semi colon. I digress....
Silly Hot in the Carolinas. Roller Coast Winter 2023 Continues. Watching the Patten, Watching Tweets From Friends DaBuh and Thor and Ed in SC is Making Me Miss My Mrytle Beach and Pawley's Island. Spring Is About to Bust and Summer Calling...
West Coast and Pacific really hogging the winter action.
Look carefully you see the huge Pacific swirl....
...to the east the High over the Sargasso Sea
This has been a heartbreaking pattern for ...
...winter weather lovers in Carolinas and Mid Atlantic.
Maybe next year... El Nino coming.
I'd take that to the bank....
...of be hugely surprised if not.
Silly Hot today here.
Why stay here for hot.
I can be somewhere else for hot.
Yes I could miss a stray snow flake.
But hoping, first week of March...
..last few days of February maybe.
If not...
...maybe next year.
Been doing this a long time, since before I was online. Lived and died by the weather reports on the weather radio and in the old days you could call a number for the "Weather Bureau" and they had the recording they later put on the weather radio. My mother put the number next to the phone and she'd say "why don't you call" when I was bored and trust me being born a restless soul I was always bored. I called a lot. My neighbor's son was a pilot that flew on the Hurricane Hunter planes, her house was filled with pictures on the walls of photos he took inside of hurricanes. My father's Alma Mater was UM...the Hurricanes. You get the idea, I was born into hurricane culture.
One year is "oh my God it's never gonna stop" and another year is "oh there's a tropical depression but it's not going to get a name....ever" and then that year where everything tried to form, fell apart and then snapped back and then fell apart. Other years like the one with Maria, Irma, etc, etc... or 2004 and 2005 were endlessly filled with landfalling, crazy hurricanes. Winter Weather is the same way and in the Carolinas it's either drought or bust! In the Carolinas cold fronts don't make it down deep and in those quiet years people can get really depressed who love Winter Weather vs the ones dancing about and out on the golf courses every day showing off "look it's warm and sunny" and so you take the long view. What you are denied this year, maybe you get next year more than you dreamed or hoped for....
This is what happens when it's silly hot.
Great Valentines Day Tweet from Ed Piotrowski.
And when you have been doing this a long time online, you build up relationships with good friends who are into weather and weather minds definitely think alike. There's usually a message in my rambling long read posts but it takes a while to discern them. Sometimes I don't want to say out right what I'm thinking, but long term readers can pick between the words and know what I'm implying. Kind of like when the word "should" is written into Tropical Discussion for a weak, paltry tropical wave at least six times. Or when they start with the label of a "vigorous tropical wave" it catches your attention. Remember when you were in 5th or 6th or 7th grade and you didn't want to tell a crush you had a crush on them so you pretended to be friends or mildly annoyed at them lest they think you thought they were cute? Come on everyone did that at some point. When you're grown up you look back and think "why did I do that?" and then you giggle.
Thor gave an awesome LIVE broadcast last night online, off topic here, make me laugh and smile, listened til I had to go to sleep. It's on YouTube... you can always rewatch something. I do that with Tropical Tidbits in the Hurricane Season, so much info I need to listen to it twice sometimes.. my mind wanders, born restless. Thor is one of many friends here, that always rock my world even when I'm moody or is it in a mood. Got a lot on my mind today, trying to follow a to do list and "blog" was on the list.
Great Tweet by DaBuh below.
But you really gotta know.
If you know you know....
and I know!
I'm doing what I did last hurricane season when things were slow, slow and slower and that is lower my expectations and play it in real time, not letting the GFS break my heart and whatever happens happens. I watch the Water Vapor Loop, I watch the pattern. Like that left eye wink he has there highlighted, by the way, on topic but again being cryptic!
Got things to do and places to go...
...more tomorrow.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Twitter mostly weather and Instagram whatever...come along for the ride..
Winter's 2023 Roller Coaster.... Severe Storms in the South Headed NE... Winter Weather Still MIA in the SE ... Time Will Tell. Will the Pattern Flip?
Severe Weather in the South.
Again....
...it's as if Severe Weather Season never went away.
And what begins in the Deep South...
...doesn't stay there.
The weather moves NE up into the heart of Tennessee!
Just a nasty few days.
Winter Weather to the North ....
...Severe Weather again in the South.
And parts of Ohio and it tracks along the track.
The track of 2023.
There's been a lot of talk about a pattern flip coming down the road in 10 days to 2 weeks or so. A better chance at late season snow and winter sort of weather, complete with cold temperatures and Meme's that would scream "I'm baaack!!!"
Maybe.
I've been burned by so many models and so much discussion online and in the end it ends up being Wishcasting. Hoping, dreaming of snow and a Winter Wonderland! Dreams delayed over and over, but there's always another model run late at night to wait up for and see if maybe, just maybe.... this one will come and deliver.
I don't usually wait up for the late night model unless it's hurricane season and there's a named storm on the map. Maybe if we have a good shot of winter weather or have just entered into a Winter Storm Watch in which case I'll stay up late and wait to see what the next model run looks like.
I'm watching the Water Vapor Loop and enjoying the cooler days, cooler than what it'll be like in July and August here! Sunny skies and 73 degrees in February in North Carolina... nothing could be finer, right? Not really right, but I'll take it! I mean seriously if I'm gonna have weather flirting with the 80s I may as well be in Florida? Right? Right...
This is Roller Coaster Weather but the highs are getting higher and the lows lower.
In truth I think March will have a Winter Surprise for us in the first few weeks. If not then...when?
Til then I watch the loops and enjoy Dabuh's musical tranlations of what he sees, what we see on the various models and satellite imagery.
Oh you gotta follow...
Such great art, wisdom and music!
Stay tuned.....
.... at some point it'll flip and there will be a window, a door... for Winter Weather before Winter is in the rear view mirror! Remember....when I said that about the Hurricane Season when everyone was insisting on sticking a fork in it. And, then something changed........
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm in Twitter and Instagram
Twitter mostly weather and Instagram whatever... enjoy the music!
I'm on Vacation !! Mentally Anyway. No Snow. No Hurricanes. No Football! What's a Girl to Do? I Went to the Mall.
Okay I'm wearing leggings.
But I put on the sandals!
I'm done.
I had a Ferris Beuller day today.
I went AWOL.
I danced in Macy's.
I had ice cream ... white truffle raspberry.
It looked Valentines ish.
The boots are still in the closet mind you, I'm not crazy, but wearing sandals unless it's in the low 40s. Listening to the soundtrack from Evita because YouTube knows I like it when I'm in a mood and yes I am in a mood. Taking a bit of a break. Freddy is a Cat 4 on the other side of the world, beautiful but not in my ocean.
A Valentines Cyclone!
My thoughts for today are below.
Weather is avoiding the SE.
Except for a long term never ending severe weather season.
2023 Winter/Spring in the SE Carolinas... Could We Get Snow? Soon? Maybe... Skeptical. Earthquake Turkey Death Toll Over 11,000 and Climbing. A Look at 2012 Hurricane Season,. Is 2012 A Good Analog for 2023? Maybe. Time Will Tell.
The cold weather in Turkey and that region...
..is adding a layer of Misery to a horrific tragedy.
Imagine being homeless in freezing weather...
...homeless on the street waiting for help.
No heat, no shelters... dead relatives nearby.
Horrible.
Again I'll take hurricanes over earthquakes any day!
As we know from bad hurricanes.
The aftermath kills many who survive the storm.
Illness, bad weather, decaying bodies in the street.
Hate to sound morbid but it's cold truth.
Please pray for people there.
Please give charity
There's something called the Red Crescent there and this article explains, so it's a good place to start.
Today's blog first discusses earthquakes in Turkey and elsewere and most of us online sharing info Sunday evening knew that the death toll would be above 10,000 most likely and it's possible the final death toll will be an estimate hard to pin down and unimaginable. Again I'll take a strong hurricane over a strong earthquake anytime.
The other night when the news came in that a 7.8 Earthquake hit an interior region of Turkey those of us into meteorology who dabble in geology woke up like Rip Van Winkle ...as if he had just had a triple espresso or a shot of Turkish Coffee! I've said a million times if once, every geologist is a closet meteorologist and every meteorologist is a closet geologist. In truth we just love every aspect of Earth Science be it how the atmosphere works, how the fault lines patch quiltlike together and how the currents of the ocean circle our Planet it strange wonderful ways that make Great Britain more habitable than otherwise. Check out a map, Manchester England is about the same latitude of Latvia and you really learn to appreciate the Gulfstream.
Easy graphic helops to show the story!
As we all spend a good part of our time studying natural disasters or let's say we know the odds of a Category 4 forming at some point and smashing into a major coastline city vs a quiet little National Park such as Hurricane Bret in 1999. Andrew and Katrina were not as kind as Bret; most earthquakes are small and barely felt if people are even awake when the spider plant hanging from the ceiling makes little circles above your head as you may or may not be sleeping. Other earthquakes, such as the Northridge Earthquake in 1971 basically hit at daybreak as many people I know woke up thinking they were dreaming before realizing something fell on their bed or their pool emptied into their living room in the North part of the San Fernando Valley. I lived in Miami then, but by the time I got to LA years later ... every person I knew in Northridge told me where they were when the Big One shook their world. As bad as that earthquake was, there are other faults that could create a much worse tragedy.
From Wikipedia article.
The 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake in Northern California had a high death toll and casualty count when an elevated highway buckled trapping people underneath. I remember watching the rescue attempts that mirror much worse earthquakes in Haiti where brick built buildings crumble as hillsides collapse burying whole families and sometimes whole towns. After the recent Champlain Towers collapse we are too familar here in the USA without even a Natural Disaster causing it... we know what happens when a tall building pancakes while people are sleeping.
Gee Hurricanes don't seem so bad afterall. Again, you can prepare, evacuate or hunker down...
After I finished writing the blog the other day where I explained that.... I looked down at my phone and my brother had sent me a WhatsApp message saying "give me a hurricane anyday over an earthquake" and yeah I told him... "yeah, I just said that in my blog" and it's true.
Time to prepare is everything.
If we could only get as good predicting earthquakes as we are the formation of a Hurricane such as Ian giving many so much lead time to prepare their property and get further inland. To take the family photos and the family pooch or goldfish with them on their way out as they pray there is something to come back to..
This winter has been a pissant winter for those of us in the Carolinas who love Snow and do not live in Asheville but in the Piedmont region and even Asheville is wanting snow. Usually we get snow, a little or a lot, every year is different. That applies to most of Georgia as well as with every drop of elevation we get a bigger chance of snow. When Atlanta gets snow, often Raleigh gets snow but not always. But this year we have trees beginning to bud, birds singing ridiculously loud at 6 AM and if I have to hear one more person say "isn't the warm weather wonderful!" I will lose it. Yes, I love Spring but I prefer it in late March or early April! At this point the pollen will pop the first week in March...
The GFS is doing that thing it does....
... when it teases me and I'm not buying it yet.
EURO shows cold ....just cold rain.
I really obviously want snow!
Before I jump on the Spring Train...
Today 1 of my favorite mets weighed in...
Larry Cosgrove, like any good meteorologist, knows geography incredibly well down to every little detail. Most of us in the Carolinas have been bitching about the "SE RIDGE" robbing us of winter weather. In fact he is right as it's more Carib/Sargasso Sea Ridge. The Water Vapor below illustrates that well. The ridges is not over us as much as to the East ...SE of us and it's eroding our Winter.
What this feature does is create a carousel of warm weather that rises up after the departure of every cold front that attempts to make it down into the Raleigh region. After cold rain for 18 hours the wind shifts fast around the ridge and the next thing you know warm area snaps back fast from the South/SE and we end up with rain and today it's supposed to top out at 71 degrees!! And, yet the GFS is promising it maybe, might could snow as we say Down South.
I'll believe it when I see it.
But it's definitely in my mind to review the 2012 Hurricane Season when several small lows went tropical along the SE coast, two were named in May and I know as I planned a trip back to Miami to be able to intercept both and so enjoyed both Alberto and Beryl going and coming so to speak. Great road trip chase really....
Listening to Mike Do Daily Brew... While I Do Coffee and Loops. In the Mood to Talk Tropics.... Is Chilly in the Carolinas But My Mind on Hurricane Season
Woke up this morning really in the mood to hear about the tropics vs the Petering out winter the Carolinas is having and the nonstop parade of severe weather in the South that has made up 2022 and now this 2023 part of winter. I impulsively went to YouTube this morning around 9:30 and "wow Mike's on" was my first thought and so I clicked. Often in life good decisions are made without overthinking it....though sometimes you end up in odd territory that you didn't see coming down the road when you impulsively took a road trip off the main highway. It can change your life... I warn you!
Mighty nice spin in the Atlantic No Name Low
I lived in California a long time. I had to learn to not say "expressway"but "freeway" and then back in Miami I was corrected constantly that it's an "expressway" but now living up in the Carolina... we call them all highways. Our highways go by numbers I-40 or 440 or 540, etc. I was so damn happy to see Mike talking on the Internet Highway about the tropics and weather. Weather first, as we aren't in the Hurricane Season but I see the Low in the Atlantic is whetting our appetite for tropical discussion. He's not usually on Tuesday morning and I'm not usually on YouTube at this time of the morning. Yay!
And, of course he got around to talking about El Nino that most likely will be in our tropical road this hurricane season. Listening to Mike talk is like listening to the thoughts in my head coming out of someone else's mind. And, there's a good reason for that, we've talked tropics for a long time. And, we agree on a lot of things as we have seen them play out over and over.
El Nino does NOT mean nothing to worry about. La Nina doesn't mean time to panic. Many storms in La Nina stay far out at sea and often during El Nino storms form or intensify closer in such as Andrew and the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane and blow up in your face just when you thought you had nothing to worry about. It's basically all Click Bait as this past year was "oh my gosh a La Nina" and yet we went through a quiet 6 week period where many mets online declared the season over and no it was not over just postponed. El Nino does tend to shut down the SW deep Caribbean but that's not exactly our area of Main Development and it favors closer in storms more likely to make a memorable landfall!
So stay tuned.
That's it.
No long rants.
Gotta a headache I can't lose so going to the chiropractor later today.
Warmer day today, sunny skies and I'm going to take advantage of that!
Gotta enjoy the weather when you got it!
Sweet Tropical Dreams...
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Ps... yes severe weather in the South and long term models show weather that probably will not happen when it gets into the short term. February 2023 goes on and on..
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
