Updated! Yellow X over Africa in the 2 Day, Yellow Circle Near Africa in E ATL in 5 Day. Tropics Come Alive in Late August As Per Climo.

Thursday Morning Update.

Grid below tells the story for today.

This is the main story.

A less strong Lane moving towards Hawaii.

Rain from Lane will be the big story.

Rain and possibly flooding.

Also Lane is moving slow now.

So there will be a prolonged period of heavy rain.

Hawaii is not as used to rain as say Miami.

Both tropical cities but different in many ways.

Main point to remember about Lane.

It is NOT Hurricane Maria.

It is not going to slam Hawaii like PR.

It is going to make an impact.

Hawaii is much like Key West in ways.

If the stores sell out of supplies.

It takes a long time to resupply the stores.

It is an Island in the ocean.

That is why they are pressing people to stock up.

Even without a huge hit ...

...supplies of necessities will be limited for a while.

I'm going to keep this fairly simple this morning. The wave that has yet to exit off of Africa is a long term, long range threat nothing that is going to develop immediately. That said it may not develop at all but we are watching it and it's a good reminder that September is around the corner and better to shop now for basics you need in case of a hurricane than a day or two before. Looking at the images above you see the story, looking up close tells the story with more definition. Note the slow movement between forecast points in the image directly above showing the prolonged period of heavy, tropical rains areas of Hawaii will feel even while Lane is slowly decreasing in actual wind intensity. Luckily Lane is weakening and should be spared a total direct hit but any large slow moving hurricane needs to be watched carefully that has huge amounts of weather as did Hurricane Matthew that had problems pulling away and turning as fast as the NHC originally forecast it would and it did make landfall in South Carolina. The huge amount of rain it carried with it a long ways spread out over the Carolinas once again flooding out the same regions that Hurricane Floyd swamped with rain. Different geography there as coastal Carolinas is a mix of marsh, swamp and river flood basins. Hawaii has mountains, hills and areas where the water can race down the hillside taking out major roads needed to resupply local stores. Something to think on...

At the most they will expect strong Tropical Storm force conditions.

Wet, strong Tropical Storm with huge rain totals.

A gusts to hurricane force possible.

As for the Wave near Africa.

Chances are down to 10%

Why? 

1 models likes it.

The other model does not like it.

GFS pulled it's support.

Euro hung with it.

It's a long term wait and see what happens.

One possible scenario is shown below.

www.crownweather.com

They are a pay per service and they are good.

They also Tweet often so you can get good info there.

One train of thought is the wave develops closer in...

...down the tropical road.

Some models suggest goes W gets into GOM

Other models suggest it moves up along the E Coast.

Keep watching.

Sadly some of the sites we use are still down :(

Notice the red print at the top of the image above.

They are working on it.

Getting most back online.

Stay tuned I'll update later in the day with more information.

Until then.

We do what we got to do.

Gone but not forgotten........

I'll admit I love that they upgraded the satellites yet they pulled the old ones that worked always and forever without ever a problem and now the new satellites do not work as well and when they go down you are stuck with broken links and half usable loops that make your eyes blurry and well it's annoying. I liked the old WV satellite loops. I want them back. It's not happening. It will never be the same I know, it' changes and things evolve and you got to get with the program but you got to fix what's broken.  As for me I'm high on weather and satellite loops and talking about weather with my friends and I'm trying not to be negative so going to go out and get some fresh air. I'm going to turn the music up and dance and get exercise and happy and I'll be back later.......  later gator.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Wednesday Blog if you haven't read it.
Keep reading.
Or heck read it anyway :)

First we have a yellow x in the 2 Day Forecast.

The X is over Africa as the wave has not yet come off.

The 2 day above.

The five day has a yellow circle where something could form.

Low chances now so we will wait and see.

But it's the first time in a while we see...

...an X or circle over by Africa.

You can see the wave train I spoke about earlier today.

There is a sense of a spin there currently.

T

The satellite sites were having problems earlier today.

They are up but not 100% ready for prime time.

At least they are up and working.

Some things to think on.

Note the comment about the outage I mentioned today.

On Mike's www.spaghettimodels.com you can scroll down.

Hurricane Lane is at the top, keep scrolling down.

Areas highlighted that the NHC has put in yellow.

I also want to show you the SAL view.

Stretched thin.

Apparently SAL has to go back to school in September.

No more summer vacation in the East Atlantic.

Kind of on it's last legs, finally.

There have been many long range models, very long range models, that show something developing in this region and being a player down the road. Nothing WOW yet but something to make you raise your eye brows some. This is as expected as expected can be as we move towards Labor Day Weekend and the beginning of September. We watch Africa for any signs of vorticity because when a tropical wave comes off that has it's own small low embedded in it ... it has a higher chance for developing than when it comes off with a huge amount of convection but no "there" there.

Time to start paying attention.

As for Hurricane Lane it is trending towards the left.

That would be better for Hawaii.

Meanwhile they need to prepare in case it trends right.

This may or may not work.

It's a now live feed going into Lane by Recon.

Video of #NOAA42 entering the eye #HurricaneLane during the 4PM HST mission. The storm was near its peak intensity, a Category 5, at this point.  Taken by L. Bucci. pic.twitter.com/TTTzM23xwy

— HRD/AOML/NOAA (@HRD_AOML_NOAA) August 22, 2018

Stay tuned for more information later today. Also check out the previous blog post on our very strong Category 4 Hurricane Lane in the Pacific and some discussion on how Hurricane Recon began.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2018/08/hurricane-lane-will-it-or-wont-it-hit.html

Debby Update. Hurricane Season 2018 As Normal As Can Be.. Why You Ask?

Quick review of what's new in the tropics.

Despite all the doom and gloom in the discussion regarding the forecast future of Subtropical Storm Debby she found a sweet spot in the normally cold North Atlantic and had a burst of intensity allowing her to maintain her reign in the tropical Atlantic (or not so tropical but feels like tropical) Basin. Note the discussion shown below explaining why she is still an entity this morning but why she will most likely be killed off later today or tomorrow.

Map shown below.

I really prefer their maps.

Love the NHC but map wise they are lacking.

Why is this important you ask? I mean do we really need to worry about a storm so far North it's closer to the North Pole and Northern Europe than most tropical cities such as Galveston, New Orleans, Miami or Charleston? Yes it matters and yes it is a subtropical storm in the tropical variety the same way an apple is related to a rose plant. 

Trivia of the day here:

"Apples, peaches, pears, and plums are all from the Rose family (Rosaceae). , strawberries, and cherries are too. If you look closely at the flowers on these herbs, shrubs, and trees, you will notice the similarities. Flowering plants from the Rose family have a cup-like shape with five petals and oval-shaped leaves."

It is what it is and it's the D storm and that means we are waiting for the fifth named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season in early August before most years have even had their first named storm. Yet, with nothing to really write about meteorologists are going on and on about how slow this season is likely to be based on numerous meteorological abbreviations and updated forecasts for this season. Note if you have to constantly update your "forecast" it is not a "forecast" any longer it is merely a "state of the tropics update" named a forecast. It's a real time in the middle of the month updated forecast because your previous forecast looks like it might be a bust but we won't know until November 30th really how slow or busy, quiet or active the 2018 Hurricane Season will be until then. So everyone is writing whatever they can to make sense of it all.

I don't really think it's that unusual and it's going to be a pretty average season overall. Many weak storms with names that didn't amount to much to remember. One or two larger, stronger hurricanes that we may remember for years to come especially if they make landfall. A season that will come to life in it's own time most likely around prime time in a few weeks. Everything changes and this too shall pass in that the Saharan Dust won't be a player all season and the waters are already warming up and the typical change in wind flow patterns will be more favorable to tropical development for a brief time before people begin to wonder when the first snow will show up in their town.

Dior brought out their new fall palette today!

It's called Volcanic ;)

See the pattern here?

Hyping the Hawaii volcano...

Why they don't do a weather palette I don't know.

Maybe they are more into geology?

Looks a lot like the colors of the sunset from Hector.

So back to the tropics and maps.

Why we should worry on this season?

High latitude storms.

Will that be a pattern?

Or was it just a random happenstance?

Let's look at Africa up close.

More tropical waves departing from Africa.

Recently another pattern has shown itself.

Continued convection down in the Caribbean.

Down near the Yuctan.

Yes SAL is still there....

...but his time on the clock is limited.

Much like Debby.

Note that tropical wave reaching out to the west...

...towards the last wave that made it across.

The new one coming off.

ITCZ is juicing up and coming to life.

Just in time for prime time.

So keep it loose, enjoy your day and know that today is what it is and it is what you make it. Grasp the day, seize the opportunity to get some sun or bake a cake or go buy ice cream time and money permitting. It may rain today but the sun will shine again eventually. And, it it's shining today it may be storming by late this afternoon. Enjoy the moment. Do not get lost in the fighting online about everything from whether the EURO model is better than the GFS or who won the last election forgetting to realize the next election is less than two years away. Stay centered on the now and what you have in front of you ... as he said in Twister ;)

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter