UPDATED. 5 PM TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ---- Invest 99L Doing It's Thing. TS Ernesto Moving Towards Ireland. Areas in the Atlantic Being Watched and Discussed. It's August. Find a Beach, Dance to the Music But Pay Attention to Your Weather Apps and Alerts.

Ernesto is now a Tropical Storm.

Short lived but a TS never the less.

I feel like it earned it's wings.

Maybe became legitimate.

Like finding who you are on Ancestry.

Okay...seriously.

Discussion explains it below.

Tightened up.

Visible on Earthnull.

Images below.

Much better signature below.

Tropical Storm.

No longer Subtropical.

As for Invest 99L

Models still playing with it.

Has a narrow window over the next few days.

Maybe it it located to the North Atlantic...

Always does it's best late in the day.

Another view of 99L

Close up view of 99L

If it has a "center" trying to form.

It's in that larger white mass.

Keep watching.

You can see 99L moving towards the Caribbean.

Worth noting the old wave is to the West of it.

The one that dumped flooding rain on Trinidad and Tobago 

Stay tuned....

Again it's a long term process.

It's an interesting process.

No Killer Cane there...

... weather moving Westbound.

With a chance it may intensity.

Keep reading if you did not read this blog earlier.

Or to review what I said.

This is the State of the Tropics Thursday Morning.

Ernesto doing it's thing up in the N Atlantic.

Invest 99L doing it's thing.

What is 99L's thing you ask?

It's being a tropical wave.

A tropical wave being "investigated" . . .

. . . that means it's being watched basically.

https://earth.nullschool.net

Close up of that part of the Atlantic shown below.

Using the site above...

You see Ernesto tightly wound up.

Down below you do not see 99L tightly wound up.

There is a "disturbance" in the force...

Kinks in the wind barbs.

Far from organized

So why are we watching it?

Models like it.

And it put on quite a show yesterday.

Still there this morning. 

Note intensity modeling likes it.

Models could be very off.

We watch, we wait, we go on with life.

And Invest 99L keeps doing it's thing.

Model illustrations courtesy of Levi Cowan

He is always visually exacting.

www.tropicaltidbits.com

So what is the big deal here exactly? It's a large wave with several areas that could fire up and become the main center ..........if a center develops........and where it develops (if it develops) would tell the story track wise. If it doesn't develop it just limps into the Caribbean fighting shear and trying to possibly develop later. That later for people along the cities of the Gulf of Mexico catches their attention. The lead part of the wave that is higher catches the attention of the people in PR who are still recovering from last year. The NHC is watching the area further to the rear and remember their graphic is not a track or a cone but an an area where it can develop if it develops. 

John Morales out of Miami isn't a believer.

He's a voice well respected in Miami and S Florida.

He gives it 2 days.

"Not a concern"

Many people in the Islands are praying on that.

If 2018 is the Year of the Subtropical Storm in the North Atlantic it gives the Islands a chance to continue recovering from last year's historic hurricane season. Note again as I have said many people in South Florida still have blue tarps on their rooftops. And a bad roof during the hurricane season always adds stress. Even when there is no Invest there is always a weak tropical wave passing through the Florida Straits, over Cuba and across South Florida.

Let's keep them weak....

Interestingly some mets are watching other features..

..features not officially an Invest.

Possibly because of systems like Debby and Ernesto...

..any ULL in the Atlantic with moisture is watched this year?

Flip sides of a coin.

You can see above 99L 

You can also see the convection they are watching.

Below you see the WV Image.

The ULL comes out of hiding in the WV Image.

Located to the NW of 99L

Upper Level Lows tickle the environment.

On a very simplistic level.

They enhance convection in tropical waves.

Bottom Line...

Keep watching.

And if you live in the Mid Atlantic or NE...

...stay tuned to your local weather sources.

The NWS alerts...

..Weather Radio.

Weather Apps.

Flooding has been a persistent problem.

Flooding "Up North" has been this summer's big threat.

Flash Floods happen fast.

Knowledge is power.

Stay abreast of fast moving weather changes in your area.

Worry less on tropical waves in the tropics.

(Unless you're in the Islands... 

... worrying is locational afterall.

www.windy.com

As for me in North Carolina ...

..I'm watching the slow progression of a front.

The passage of summer into fall.

As always Spaghetti Models covers it all!

www.spaghettimodels.com

Bottom right - there is a Twitter Feed.

In the quiet times it goes off topic.

Mets love sports ... 

Mets travel and watch sunsets.

But during weather events it comes alive...

...with very good information.

So check it out as needed ;)

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps.. I'll update as needed throughout the day.

But mostly today is a day to just watch and wait.

Tropics become more active as August progresses.

Mike is selling a tee shirt he designed.

Good graphic.

Seasons have prime time vs June 1st to Nov 30th.

August 15th shows a peak of activity.

Without a MJO or Kelvin Wave.

Just plain old Climo.

August 16th!

Typically shows an increase in tropical activity.

As always be yourself.

"If you don't like my story...

.... go write your own."

The always incomparable Camila Cabello 

(A sense of humor always is good!)

The music matches the make up today :)

UPDATED! Invest 99L in Atlantic Heading Towards Caribbean. Subtropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the North Atlantic. Are There Signs in the Atlantic That Soon There May Be Something to Watch? Models Imply... Climo Implies... Waiting...Flooding Trinidad and Tobago From Last Tropical Wave

Invest 99L Forms in the Atlantic.

Headed towards the Islands.

Caribbean Bound?

And like that there's something to watch.

NHC watching it.

Models running.

20% in 5 days.

Mike's site is filled with maps and cones.

www.spaghettimodels.com

99L will move W to WNW.

Ernesto Headed N and then NE.

Models below for Invest 99L

www.tropicaltidbits.com

The issue as always with any system in this location is that shear is usually strong at the gateway to the Caribbean. As August moves into September this shear naturally lessens making the Caribbean a more possible location for tropical trouble. Usually if a storm has not formed before the Islands it's hard to get it going later though often storms like Harvey limp along until they get to warmer water and better conditions. Hurricanes like Harvey are rare and don't come along every year, it's just an example and reminder. This is the wave I mentioned earlier today that throughout the day has grown in size convective wise and has become harder and harder to ignore. Note not all yellow circles become Invests immediately so that should be a point of reference to concerns down the road if this develops.

As I said earlier today at the bottom of this blog...

...the last wave slammed into Trinidad and Tobago.

Much flooding was a result of that wave.

You can see 99L entering stage right below.

Another view below.

Stay tuned and keep reading.

Below Ernesto discussion is wave discussion IE 99L

You can see the Mimic Loop below.

But this image shows how the environment is moist..

..and currently favorable to future development.

That's a solid ITCZ above.

The loop is at the end of this blog from earlier today.

When I was discussing the wave that became 99L

Track below.

Where is it going?

Far away from the East Coast.

On it's way to England, Ireland and beyond.

It's been very warm in North Europe this summer.

All you really need to know is below.

On the map for a few days.

It's a statistic.

That means we move on to the F name.

Lot's of named storms this year...

...yet nothing much to write home about.

That's good for the Islands who are rebuilding this year.

Actually blue tarps cover homes in Florida still.

Note this isn't expected to be a Tropical Storm.

Subtropical to Extratropical.

It's clear up there in the North Atlantic.

Will the luck of the Caribbean Islands continue?

Looking due South o  Ernesto you see another area.

They almost mirror each other in ways.

It's worth noting that the last strong wave...

... made landfall in Trinidad and Tobago.

We didn't hear much about it.

We've been dealing with flooding in the Mid Atlantic Region.

But even without a name tropical waves cause misery.

Patterns in the short term repeat.

Eventually waves become Invests.

Invests often become Tropical Depressions.

August tuns into September.

In the Miami area we watch the Caribbean.

We are the gateway to the Caribbean.

Many of our friends come from the Islands.

Much of Miami is made up of people who came from there.

Phil Ferro reflects this in his tweets.

He and others are always watching the Caribbean Weather.

This is what we call a Wave Train.

Before named storms we have tropical waves.

You can see two things in the loop above.

The tropical lifeline in the N ATL for Ernesto

The active ITCZ moving West...

Part of it lifts WNW/NW towards Cuba/Florida/Bahamas

The beat goes on....

Even if models don't "see" anything forming.

Waves become stronger, time moves on.

Keep Watching.

The GFS is showing lowered pressures down the line.

Climo almost always wins.

I'll admit I thought playfully Ernesto should be a Caribbean Storm.

But in truth Climo shows it's face around August 25th.

MJO is moving into that area for a brief visit.

Stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Prayers for those in Italy trying to dig through the debris to find the bodies and find the reason that the bridge there fell down. Bridges don't usually fall down except in nursery rhymes that were really allegory for political discussion. King George =  Humpty Dumpty. It's scary, terrifying and sad that this beautiful bridge simply "fell down" during a "violent storm" and much has been made of the weather. Could the weather or a lightning strike specifically hit a weakened part of the bridge or is this an explosion as some have said vs lightning. People argue online the poor maintenance of structures in Europe due to EURO budget restraints, mean Tweets by a politician in Germany with regard to the tragedy in Italy; even whispers of terrorism have been heard in the wind as usually someone goes there. What really happened will be figured out down the road but for now they have moved from rescue to recovery of bodies. 

Could weather really have played a part in this or was it a coincidence? 

Debby Update. Hurricane Season 2018 As Normal As Can Be.. Why You Ask?

Quick review of what's new in the tropics.

Despite all the doom and gloom in the discussion regarding the forecast future of Subtropical Storm Debby she found a sweet spot in the normally cold North Atlantic and had a burst of intensity allowing her to maintain her reign in the tropical Atlantic (or not so tropical but feels like tropical) Basin. Note the discussion shown below explaining why she is still an entity this morning but why she will most likely be killed off later today or tomorrow.

Map shown below.

I really prefer their maps.

Love the NHC but map wise they are lacking.

Why is this important you ask? I mean do we really need to worry about a storm so far North it's closer to the North Pole and Northern Europe than most tropical cities such as Galveston, New Orleans, Miami or Charleston? Yes it matters and yes it is a subtropical storm in the tropical variety the same way an apple is related to a rose plant. 

Trivia of the day here:

"Apples, peaches, pears, and plums are all from the Rose family (Rosaceae). , strawberries, and cherries are too. If you look closely at the flowers on these herbs, shrubs, and trees, you will notice the similarities. Flowering plants from the Rose family have a cup-like shape with five petals and oval-shaped leaves."

It is what it is and it's the D storm and that means we are waiting for the fifth named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season in early August before most years have even had their first named storm. Yet, with nothing to really write about meteorologists are going on and on about how slow this season is likely to be based on numerous meteorological abbreviations and updated forecasts for this season. Note if you have to constantly update your "forecast" it is not a "forecast" any longer it is merely a "state of the tropics update" named a forecast. It's a real time in the middle of the month updated forecast because your previous forecast looks like it might be a bust but we won't know until November 30th really how slow or busy, quiet or active the 2018 Hurricane Season will be until then. So everyone is writing whatever they can to make sense of it all.

I don't really think it's that unusual and it's going to be a pretty average season overall. Many weak storms with names that didn't amount to much to remember. One or two larger, stronger hurricanes that we may remember for years to come especially if they make landfall. A season that will come to life in it's own time most likely around prime time in a few weeks. Everything changes and this too shall pass in that the Saharan Dust won't be a player all season and the waters are already warming up and the typical change in wind flow patterns will be more favorable to tropical development for a brief time before people begin to wonder when the first snow will show up in their town.

Dior brought out their new fall palette today!

It's called Volcanic ;)

See the pattern here?

Hyping the Hawaii volcano...

Why they don't do a weather palette I don't know.

Maybe they are more into geology?

Looks a lot like the colors of the sunset from Hector.

So back to the tropics and maps.

Why we should worry on this season?

High latitude storms.

Will that be a pattern?

Or was it just a random happenstance?

Let's look at Africa up close.

More tropical waves departing from Africa.

Recently another pattern has shown itself.

Continued convection down in the Caribbean.

Down near the Yuctan.

Yes SAL is still there....

...but his time on the clock is limited.

Much like Debby.

Note that tropical wave reaching out to the west...

...towards the last wave that made it across.

The new one coming off.

ITCZ is juicing up and coming to life.

Just in time for prime time.

So keep it loose, enjoy your day and know that today is what it is and it is what you make it. Grasp the day, seize the opportunity to get some sun or bake a cake or go buy ice cream time and money permitting. It may rain today but the sun will shine again eventually. And, it it's shining today it may be storming by late this afternoon. Enjoy the moment. Do not get lost in the fighting online about everything from whether the EURO model is better than the GFS or who won the last election forgetting to realize the next election is less than two years away. Stay centered on the now and what you have in front of you ... as he said in Twister ;)

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter