updated...Remnants of TD4 Drench South Florida....Why Are the Tropical Models Doing A Poor Job? Where Did TD4 Go and Who Is Getting It's Leftovers This Week? Mean Season Is July, Lean Days in the Tropics. Only Hurricane is in the News.. Thank You Washington Post

Updated

Brief update this morning.

Short for time and will write long later.

But this blog post below is important and timely.

Above is one view of the enhanced rainfall over FL

WV Loop below

Much rain in Miami yesterday.

More rain on the way.

But it's just another day...

..in a tropical paradise.

Briefly in the flow of tropical moisture.

A lot of moisture.

Totals posted by Phil Ferro of WSVN Miami.

He's covering this mess well.

@PhilFerro7 

Check him out it's in his backyard.

It is from the remnants.

There is an area being watched in Atlantic.

But the SAL is there as we know... so...

Yeah, let' keep watching the SAL for now.

Circulation Remnants down in the Florida Straits

More a sort of disturbance in the force...

Ill update later.

Please keep reading.

I've got things I must do this morning ...

..Be back later, 

* * *

NHC says nothing devleoping.

New wave watches old low riding wave approaching Trinidad again.

No model support, no yellow circle from NHC.

Convection in BOC without model support so nada there.

What looks like a wave in the Atlantic is an ULL .

As for XTD4 and it's remnants moving towards Miami.

More rain is on the way. Enhanced rain let's say.

SAL has got Mike from Spaghetti Models singing the blues :(

www.spaghettimodels.com

This song reminds me a bit of the tropics in July. The milk's gone sour....  And, you really got to wonder what the A Team of models are doing when they show hurricanes forming and making landfalls everywhere and then nothing happens. Something makes no sense. Either the models are doing a bad job or they are missing something that happened that didn't seem like it would happen. Maybe there is too much model reliance in forecasting tropical development these days. Yes, I use them and as a friend said online it's kind of unpatriotic to ignore the GFS (American Model) but the Euro isn't doing all that well either. That leaves us with two questions.

What is wrong with the models?
Why do we rely on them so much?

Short of conspiracy weather theories the models believed the set up was there for tropical development. They were wrong on forward speed of the wave that crawled across the Atlantic after putting anchor down midway battling shear and SAL and it didn't develop. Neither did the wave behind it develop as early modeling showed two storms in the Atlantic. Actually the second wave was shown to go barreling through the Caribbean. I don't see any hurricane down there though a tropical wave is flaring up and being ignored by NHC. (It's in the same spot some models put it but then models stopped showing it so NHC dropped it)  Remnants of XTD4 are crawling still towards Florida and Cuba and may make it into the Gulf of Mexico. The huge Upper Level Low with it's adjacent wind shear and dry air is still harassing it looking more like a Great Black Hurricane than an ULL. The ULL has more moisture wrapped in it than does XTD4.

And where will the face in the ULL go next?

Or will it simply disappear exhausted like XTD4?

Remember the old movie Fahrenheit 451?

Well it was a book first but I digress.

Perhaps the models should be tracking Upper Level Lows?

Add in some better SAL forecasts might help.

What are the models missing?

So let's flip this to explain this that thought above.

Pretend the tropical wave has dust in it and pretend Saharan Dust and the ULL are actually now vacuum cleaners that suck up moisture from the tropical waves rather than sucking up dust. They do the opposite in a homeopathic way such as vaccines. They are the moisture suckers of the tropics winning the war against tropical development.

Before 

After

And what SAL doesn't get the ULL finishes up.

Bottom line here is yes I show the models. People ask me to show the models and they ask what I think on the models. The models are out there in the public domain so everyone can see the models. I don't want to be all BREXIT like and say we need to get rid of the GFS (which is on borrowed time as we turn to the Para GFS) but it's been worse now than it was before. The Euro is usually Top Gun here and yet even the Euro has been off. Viva El Euro! 

I'm the original water vapor loop girl and I'd rather watch a wave on the water vapor loop than stare at models that change drastically so fast that if they were in a class I taught they'd be in detention often. Will the new upgrade do a better job? Stay tuned. 

Again the tropical world has flipped and we spend more time running models and watching model forecasts than we do watching the actual state of the tropics via satellite imagery. And the better the imagery gets (and it's getting really good) the less people watch what is here today while trying to see what the computers say might be in ten days time. And, maybe if meteorologists were paid what they should be paid then computer genius types would go into meteorology vs taking jobs at Amazon where they can pay their bills, pay off college and watch the tropics from far away in Seattle. 

You get what you pay for in this world. Garbage in and you get garbage out. Just saying.

In truth it's just another day in Paradise and people like Jim Williams (the world's largest skeptic ..he's probably going to disagree with that one) only expects real development once August begins. July is the Dog Days of Tropical Meteorology usually when mets so bored from watching "nothing in the tropics" they spend their time writing articles on the possible sale of the Miami Marlins. It's a Miami thing...  July is usually the "Mean Season" not prime time as the models have been forecasting without much luck. And it's wrong and silly to totally count out the models but they aren't doing a great job. And, let's not say the validation of Cindy by the NHC didn't really make it the great tropical event it was forecast to be by the models. 

These days the only usage of the word Hurricane is in political headlines....

Washington Post knows the word Hurricane sells.

Why do we use the models? We paid a lot of money for them. We are still way better off with them than without them. But, it's worth remembering that the models are at their best when there is a verified, closed low pressure system and they have information obtained from Recon to put into each model run. Then the models shine, however we have a long way to go before we can rely on them totally for forecasting of tropical development. And, if they get the forward speed wrong they blow the timing and when they blow the timing the output is wrong. Timing is intricately related to intensity forecasting so gotta fix that before we can really bet the farm on the models. 

It's July, it's hot and the models are not! Stay tuned August will be here soon and July may have a surprise ending that wasn't originally in the script. Especially if we can lock up the Upper Level Low in the Atlantic and find some home grown action that sneaks in under the radar.

Til then the only good weather scenes will be in the movies.

Keep watching, keep reading.

Besos BobbiStorm

@Bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps. Good explanation as to what happened to TD4 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMJlQbB_-3E

What's Spinning in the Tropics Tuesday Morning? XTD4? African Waves? Caribbean Convection? ULL Steals the Show..

Sunrise over the Atlantic Ocean on Visible Imagery

It's really such a beautiful world.

Watching the water vapor loop is a good way to enjoy it.

You an see all the patterns and ribbons of convection.

You can see the highs and the lows.

And when looking for rotation in the tropics.

The ULL in the Atlantic Steals the show.

Another view above with some teal blues thrown in.

It just spins and spins.

It's got XTD4 on a tight lease.

Frontal boundaries weak as they may be moving East.

Then they sort of stall out creating flooding rains.

The ULL in the Atlantic deserves an award today.

Sparing South Florida and East Coast from model madness.

And if ULL was not there those models may have been right.

Note the image below..

ULL has XTD4 on a leash.

It's going to go West.

As a weak tropical disturbance that wants to be a TD again.

What will be with the ULL?

Can't say. It's been around for longer than normal.

Models up on www.spaghettimodels.com

Doubtful any recon will go in today unless something really unusual happens. But the NHC is a fluid sort of place that goes into action when needed to protect the people as that is there job. There is a floater up on XTD4 and it's easy to monitor there as well as NRL which is currently still up. But really nothing is happening and that is thanks to the ULL that the models didn't seem to sniff out as well as they should have it seems. Models did get the location exactly right days ago, possibly weeks ago. And again the Euro beat the GFS and the rest of the pack. Euro showed a weak disturbance not formed in the spot where it is currently. It showed a weak low pressure area approaching Florida with various solutions time wise and placement wise. GFS had other ideas as shown below from an old blog post.

The Euro often showed a tropical disturbance.

A bubble in the force of the Bermuda High.

The GFS showed a stronger systems.

Weak systems go West and at this point XTD4 may do Cuba.

Or South Florida.

Or it may somehow make it into the GOM.

It's an early Pre-Season Drama.

Oddly this July is filled with drama.

He said, she said, "No I didn't say that!"

Locally Miamians are praying the rumors are true...

Then there's the Kremlin drama... 

Then there's Facebook putting out this message..

...at the top of everyone's feed this morning.

Seriously why would Will Smith's son friend you?

And in the tropics the plug has been pulled on the African Wave.

Of course if something happens it will be back.

Models for XTD4 shown below.

Looks bound for the Florida Straits.

Miami should have enhanced rainfall.

Hope it speaks Spanish..

XTD4 is basically a conundrum.

More so as it did not totally die.

As it has held on it's a conundrum.

The models made it a bigger conundrum.

Word for the day: conundrum ;)

It is a Tropical Disturbance.

A mass of tropical weather moving together.

More than a wave, not a Tropical Depression.

Wave axis with vorticity 

Note the shadow swirl on the N coast of Hispaniola 

Definition below:

Part of a larger definition.

Stages of Hurricane Formation.

Tropical Disturbance is heads up but not there yet.

XTD4 would be a good example.

Old Tweet but still good thoughts.

Just keep an eye on it.......

Watching tropics is locational.

How we watch on E coast is different from GOM..

Lastly from Twitter I'm posting this one for a reason.

Note the small blob of convection over Miami below.

Miami has had flare ups frequently such as this.

Should XTD4 go there it would be messy.

See video below of parking lots flooded again.

Again remember they paved a swamp to build Aventura.

A swamp filled with mangroves by the bay.

That said it's a nice place to live, dine or shop!

See beautiful :)

Tropical ...

It's all about location. 

The location and history of tropical activity makes us watch.

We will talk about the African waves later this week.

Still there we just aren't talking about it.

NHC back to "show me the money honey" attitude.

I always liked the wave behind the one that was highlighted.

Bigger, nicer, better center. Just my thoughts.

Upper left XTD4.

So watch the videos of some storms that came together fast in that zone.

And have a wonderful day today!

Enjoy the drama in the news or go out and shop til you drop!

Unless you want to stay home and shop on Amazon.

Work, live, love and be happy.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps It's very quiet on Twitter today. XTD4 & African Wave in Dog House.

The GFS model is in the process of an official upgrade.

That's why we been watching the Para GFS that's performed better.

Current GFS is on life support along with XTD4.

Stay tuned.

Keep reading if you want about why I posted these videos.

They show what has happened in the past.

Disclaimer .. Reminder (like Facebook..)...

XTD4 Wave is NOT expected to develop.

But other waves in that area have in the past.

So here's a bit of Hurricane History for y'all.

Current image of Gulfstream water temperatures.

Small storms like Tropical Storm Julia.

Bigger storms like Hurricane Katrina...

Again I'm taking a look back today at the formation of a few systems in this zone that have formed into storms in the past. It is worth remembering many never form and rain themselves out over South Florida and flood places like the parking lots in Aventura Mall and life goes on. 

This "zone" is prone to weak, wandering tropical waves spinning up fast and coming together over the warm waters of the Gulfstream. The key here being this happens when OTHER factors are in place and currently we do not have those factors holding out hope for XTD4 a "system" that is moving West. XTD4 is basically a "tropical disturbance" a term not so in vogue these days. It's more than a wave and but not a tropical depression. In this case it's more like a "Has Been... wannabe again" wave that never totally had it's mojo and lost what mojo it had and yet doesn't totally go away. Often when a TD unravels and fades away it's goes away. Then you have the ones that don't die completely and Zombie like spin up again. And often over the very warm Gulfstream they can spin up fast as if they form a center the water below is hot tropical fuel for storms. Fast spin up is especially common in "small systems" and XTD4 has been a small system from the get go so we continue watching where it goes. It's called "monitoring" vs tracking as we don't have exact coordinates or advisories. At any given hour it flares up, flares down and that is a visual explanation of a wave. Think of a "wave" at a football game that the fans do for the cameras. 

Aventura Mall in June 2013 with it's often flooded parking lot.

Most likely rainfall enhanced by TS Andrea moving away.

June in Miami means rain.... lot's of it.

And then the sun comes out again.

It's a tropical kind of place.

And before you start talking on GW and Miami sinking..

Aventura Mall was built on top of a swampy piece of land...

...adjacent to Biscayne Bay.

The land was about as low as it gets.

Fill filled in the low parts.

A massive city was built on top of it.

I'd love to be at Aventura Mall today.

Just my mood... 

My kids live behind the Mall by the Golf Course.

It's a paradise and sometimes it has it's moments.

Friday might be one of those moments.

For Mike and others..

XTD4 Gets It's Floater Back & NRL IS Watching It AGAIN... Wave In Atlantic Still There Swimming..

Ever have a bad day or two and yet you don't give up? So easy to give up and give in and believe what others say about you. XTD4 keeps spinning in the Atlantic to the ESE of South Florida doing it's thing. It's seems to have tried to close off a circulation again and it keeps flaring up so since it worked so hard and it's been so good... NHC put it's floater back up on the NHC site.

Can XTD4 keep this up?

The ULL is still riding it hard...

Let's use some XRAY vision ...

Hmmmmm

Sure looks like it has some sort of center.

XTD4 making a good case for getting it's Invest back...

Oh look... "it's back!"

As for the African Wave...

..it's still there. 

Got a pulse...

But XTD4 pulse is racing...

Personally just a bit distracted by closer to home XTD4.

Does some system really get the name Don this year?

Time will tell...

But... XTD4 is on it's way.

Wants to play.......

in F L O R I D A!

To quote a movie... based on real life.

Houston...we have a problem!

Keep watching....

...the drama of TD4 continues..

Besos BobbiStorm

@Bobbistorm on Twitter for faster updates.

Ps The NHC wants to they will send in recon.

Much depends on XTD4 itself.

If it continues flaring up...

...and closes off a circulation.

The planes will go in..

NHC BE LIKE NEVER GONNA FALL IN LOVE AGAIN... EX TD4 Still Flaring up at Night & African Wave Ignored. As is Strong MDR Tropical Wave & BOC Convection. Models in the Doghouse...

Officially nothing happening.

State of the tropics below with strong tropical waves.

Consistent convection in BOC

Lots of color for early July.

Wide loop because Floaters have been banned this weekend!

(sure hope XTD4 doesn't do South Beach at night...)

Why?

XTD4 Parties at night.

There's some impulse there that doesn't let go completely.

BOC getting interesting.

New wave leaves Africa (water so cold brrr)

MDR wave shows life.

And the beat goes on...

Models show development possible.

However these were the models that liked 94L

NHC kind of burned out on models today.

Love/Hate relationship going.

Gotta have model support.....

..but they kind of missed the problems with 94L aka TD4

So we are now moving into the SHOW ME State of mind.

Show me the money honey.

Show me you won't fizzle out again.

Show me you can fight off Cousin SAL

But oh wait........there may be a hero in the wings.

MJO watch up on Spaghetti Models

www.spaghettimodels

IF something develops a cyclonic signature...

we may see a floater once again one day.

Or maybe a real Invest again on NRL

I heard they brought therapists in after TD4

http://www.recovery.org/topics/about-the-codependents-anonymous-12-step-recovery-program/

Models you ask? I know you really want to see the models. Take them with sea salt as they have been overproducing on many levels of late not totally dealing with reality ...that reality being Cousin SAL. But MJO is on it's way so they say so ... maybe for the MJO believers the fix is in for a wave to get the name Don. But if it doesn't form ...don't say I didn't warn ya. NHC be all like "I see NOTHING" right now. Give them time, space, therapy .. maybe some good ice cream or a day out on the water and they may believe again in the models. Never say never...

Hmnnn GFS takes the wave all the way up the coast..

Euro takes a huge Tstorm over South Florida.

Good invest perhaps?

GFS hungry for action... 

Does NC after SFL on way to NE

Really I can't go there..

..I too swore off the models til Monday.

This is what you should really be watching.

The wave itself and if it develops a real center.

Models will be much more reliable.

A single, well aligned center.

XTD4 on right...

New wave entering stage left..

Stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Follow me there for faster updates and fun..