What's Spinning in the Tropics Tuesday Morning? XTD4? African Waves? Caribbean Convection? ULL Steals the Show..

Sunrise over the Atlantic Ocean on Visible Imagery

It's really such a beautiful world.

Watching the water vapor loop is a good way to enjoy it.

You an see all the patterns and ribbons of convection.

You can see the highs and the lows.

And when looking for rotation in the tropics.

The ULL in the Atlantic Steals the show.

Another view above with some teal blues thrown in.

It just spins and spins.

It's got XTD4 on a tight lease.

Frontal boundaries weak as they may be moving East.

Then they sort of stall out creating flooding rains.

The ULL in the Atlantic deserves an award today.

Sparing South Florida and East Coast from model madness.

And if ULL was not there those models may have been right.

Note the image below..

ULL has XTD4 on a leash.

It's going to go West.

As a weak tropical disturbance that wants to be a TD again.

What will be with the ULL?

Can't say. It's been around for longer than normal.

Models up on www.spaghettimodels.com

Doubtful any recon will go in today unless something really unusual happens. But the NHC is a fluid sort of place that goes into action when needed to protect the people as that is there job. There is a floater up on XTD4 and it's easy to monitor there as well as NRL which is currently still up. But really nothing is happening and that is thanks to the ULL that the models didn't seem to sniff out as well as they should have it seems. Models did get the location exactly right days ago, possibly weeks ago. And again the Euro beat the GFS and the rest of the pack. Euro showed a weak disturbance not formed in the spot where it is currently. It showed a weak low pressure area approaching Florida with various solutions time wise and placement wise. GFS had other ideas as shown below from an old blog post.

The Euro often showed a tropical disturbance.

A bubble in the force of the Bermuda High.

The GFS showed a stronger systems.

Weak systems go West and at this point XTD4 may do Cuba.

Or South Florida.

Or it may somehow make it into the GOM.

It's an early Pre-Season Drama.

Oddly this July is filled with drama.

He said, she said, "No I didn't say that!"

Locally Miamians are praying the rumors are true...

Then there's the Kremlin drama... 

Then there's Facebook putting out this message..

...at the top of everyone's feed this morning.

Seriously why would Will Smith's son friend you?

And in the tropics the plug has been pulled on the African Wave.

Of course if something happens it will be back.

Models for XTD4 shown below.

Looks bound for the Florida Straits.

Miami should have enhanced rainfall.

Hope it speaks Spanish..

XTD4 is basically a conundrum.

More so as it did not totally die.

As it has held on it's a conundrum.

The models made it a bigger conundrum.

Word for the day: conundrum ;)

It is a Tropical Disturbance.

A mass of tropical weather moving together.

More than a wave, not a Tropical Depression.

Wave axis with vorticity 

Note the shadow swirl on the N coast of Hispaniola 

Definition below:

Part of a larger definition.

Stages of Hurricane Formation.

Tropical Disturbance is heads up but not there yet.

XTD4 would be a good example.

Old Tweet but still good thoughts.

Just keep an eye on it.......

Watching tropics is locational.

How we watch on E coast is different from GOM..

Lastly from Twitter I'm posting this one for a reason.

Note the small blob of convection over Miami below.

Miami has had flare ups frequently such as this.

Should XTD4 go there it would be messy.

See video below of parking lots flooded again.

Again remember they paved a swamp to build Aventura.

A swamp filled with mangroves by the bay.

That said it's a nice place to live, dine or shop!

See beautiful :)

Tropical ...

It's all about location. 

The location and history of tropical activity makes us watch.

We will talk about the African waves later this week.

Still there we just aren't talking about it.

NHC back to "show me the money honey" attitude.

I always liked the wave behind the one that was highlighted.

Bigger, nicer, better center. Just my thoughts.

Upper left XTD4.

So watch the videos of some storms that came together fast in that zone.

And have a wonderful day today!

Enjoy the drama in the news or go out and shop til you drop!

Unless you want to stay home and shop on Amazon.

Work, live, love and be happy.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps It's very quiet on Twitter today. XTD4 & African Wave in Dog House.

The GFS model is in the process of an official upgrade.

That's why we been watching the Para GFS that's performed better.

Current GFS is on life support along with XTD4.

Stay tuned.

Keep reading if you want about why I posted these videos.

They show what has happened in the past.

Disclaimer .. Reminder (like Facebook..)...

XTD4 Wave is NOT expected to develop.

But other waves in that area have in the past.

So here's a bit of Hurricane History for y'all.

Current image of Gulfstream water temperatures.

Small storms like Tropical Storm Julia.

Bigger storms like Hurricane Katrina...

Again I'm taking a look back today at the formation of a few systems in this zone that have formed into storms in the past. It is worth remembering many never form and rain themselves out over South Florida and flood places like the parking lots in Aventura Mall and life goes on. 

This "zone" is prone to weak, wandering tropical waves spinning up fast and coming together over the warm waters of the Gulfstream. The key here being this happens when OTHER factors are in place and currently we do not have those factors holding out hope for XTD4 a "system" that is moving West. XTD4 is basically a "tropical disturbance" a term not so in vogue these days. It's more than a wave and but not a tropical depression. In this case it's more like a "Has Been... wannabe again" wave that never totally had it's mojo and lost what mojo it had and yet doesn't totally go away. Often when a TD unravels and fades away it's goes away. Then you have the ones that don't die completely and Zombie like spin up again. And often over the very warm Gulfstream they can spin up fast as if they form a center the water below is hot tropical fuel for storms. Fast spin up is especially common in "small systems" and XTD4 has been a small system from the get go so we continue watching where it goes. It's called "monitoring" vs tracking as we don't have exact coordinates or advisories. At any given hour it flares up, flares down and that is a visual explanation of a wave. Think of a "wave" at a football game that the fans do for the cameras. 

Aventura Mall in June 2013 with it's often flooded parking lot.

Most likely rainfall enhanced by TS Andrea moving away.

June in Miami means rain.... lot's of it.

And then the sun comes out again.

It's a tropical kind of place.

And before you start talking on GW and Miami sinking..

Aventura Mall was built on top of a swampy piece of land...

...adjacent to Biscayne Bay.

The land was about as low as it gets.

Fill filled in the low parts.

A massive city was built on top of it.

I'd love to be at Aventura Mall today.

Just my mood... 

My kids live behind the Mall by the Golf Course.

It's a paradise and sometimes it has it's moments.

Friday might be one of those moments.

For Mike and others..