TD4 & The Next Invest Waiting in the Wings. Where Does the Moisture from TDr4 Go ? Model Discussion & Tropical Thoughts

The long steamer coming off TD4 tells a story.

The polka dotted area behind it is SAL.

Saharan Dust.

Since the shear didn't kill it...

..SAL came back for one more try.

There's enough of a circulation left...

...to see how SAL gets into TD4 

Very close to losing it's circulation.

Up close look at TD4 

Odd looking system.

The 5 AM discussion called be small and tenacious.

I've been calling it that since it left Africa.

And, it's still hanging on as the song goes.

Looks as if it wants to be a butterfly.

Merge with the moisture NE of it...

Is that odd or what??

No you're not seeing double..

A wider look at this ballet in the Atlantic.

See I don't make this stuff up...

...it's how my brain works.

Okay a little heads up here I'm a bit under the weather and my mind is obsessing more than normal on the hurricane season as a whole vs one particular wave or tropical depression about to take it's last bow. We are in search of the D storm in early July and so far these storms have been thankfully weak, however as the water temperatures get hotter and climatology kicks in a bit early this year we will have strong hurricanes to deal with at some point. And, where they go and the patterns that are being set up now are not a joking matter. So please read my previous post and follow the advice of those links showing you how to keep you, your loved ones and whatever pets you may have squirreled away in your house. 

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2017/07/miami-hurricane-history-learn-from.html

The cone remains the same.

The cone has been the same for a while.

Discussion at 5 AM was good.

The 11 AM package was weak.

I get it... everyone wants to move on.

IF the NHC thought this would intensify it would be different.

The moisture from TD4 may end up over Florida.

Maybe... it's forecast to be just rain.

Models mostly show it falling apart.

Unraveling from too much spinning.

What was it thinking running around with SAL?

IF anything changes I'll be back with updates in TD4

TD4 is being blasted with SAL (dry air)

If it can escape the SAL could it come back down the road?

Easy to laugh that off but of late we have seen that often.

Weak entities fall apart and oddly come back.

Dorian comes to mind but that was a stronger storm.

Small storms like TD4 are especially quirky.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Tropical_Storm_Dorian

I bring Dorian up as the last few years have seen a number of storms look good, have great early model forecasts and then they literally bit the dust. However, before staying dead they popped back to life briefly sometimes continuing on and sometimes dying again.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Bonnie_(2016) Bonnie is another weak tropical storm that fell apart, was declassified and came back to life.

Not to be topped by Julia that was tracked as a wave that couldn't come together until it marched up I95 and was named overland for a new record of sorts.  Originally there was much interest in the wave that came to be known as Julia and then it fell apart. And, then it came back to life over land a perfect example of the Brown Ocean Effect feeding off of swampland and low lands in it's track across parts of Florida.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Julia_(2016)

Why I bring this up (other than the usual keep watching TD4 until there's no rain there left) is that often storms later in the season follow a similar track but are stronger and once forming they don't look back. They also don't loop back even when the NHC says they will and I'm talking about Matthew that affected the same hotels in Daytona that Julia visited earlier in the same season. Patterns exist and patterns need to be watched.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Matthew

Nuff said on Tropical Depression #4 though I'll post a song and a few good posts from Twitter.

A generation thought it was "Hang on Snoopy" . . .

Now going to post some Tweets regarding the new Invest.

The next wave the models are all Ga Ga about.

Remember please the models originally loved Invest 94L

Early models showed landfall near or around FL and NC.

And yet that didn't happen.

SO don't put too much faith in early models.

Because if we believe models...

... then we believe TD4 was forecast to survive.

Wise man say only fools rush in...

But we still love the models...

...even though they been burning us lately.

Oh look another wave develops!!

Another African Wave gets a heartbeat...

Some models show an eye trying to form!

Headed towards the Caribbean.

More Bret like in track.

Possible.

High builds back in.......

And as always the GFS tries to destroy South Florida.

Was it something we said or did?

What is the GFS fascination for showing Florida landfalls?

Other models show it going into the Caribbean.

But no not the GFS.. 

Jim Cantore gives his thoughts.

And his thoughts are very valuable.

GFS says yes.

EURO says no... not really.

There's actually two waves to watch.

One comes off high.

One came off low.

Both have to deal with SAL.

So you know that way that goes.

However MJO . . . 

...is forecast to say hello!!

I say high.. you say low.

You say hello hello.. 

Meet Mister SAL.

Unless of course if it stays low and avoids SAL like Bret did.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE/movies/splitE5.html loop the link 

And that's the way it goes in the tropics today.

Time for me to take my temperature again.
It's high for me but also low.

Not at the 100 degree mark yet ;)

Please read and take seriously the link below:

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2017/07/miami-hurricane-history-learn-from.html

And you can follow all the models at Spaghetti Models.

http://spaghettimodels.com/

Gluten Free Pasta.. 

NO Calories 

:)

Keep watching... I know everyone wants something more exciting to track .. and yet no one wants to see anyone get hurt but after Cindy and TD4 storm trackers be like "Please make me a real storm to chase.... I don't want easy I want crazy!!!!"

Keep tracking, keep chasing and keep checking back here often...

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbiStorm on Twitter - where you can get way faster updates and talk tropics with me ;)

Ps Leaving this here for the GFS that really wants to do Miami ... maybe someday.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2017/07/miami-hurricane-history-learn-from.html

READ LEARN MAKE A PLAN FOR HURRICANE SEASON!