Cantore Doing the Plains Today for Tornado Time. Hurricane Season Not Yet Prime Time But Could Come Early. Meteorology and Meteorologists... Definitions and Thoughts. Songs, Memories and Music.

This blog post was inspired by a long discussion on Twitter about what it means to be a "meteorologist" exactly and that's an odd term "long discussion on Twitter" which basically means many tweets and my son who follows me is shaking his head thinking "getting close to the Hurricane Seasons cause Ma is blowing up my phone with Twitter posts!" Hey I didn't tell him to follow me. And, this blog was brought to you by this song that has been oddly stuck in my mind this past week.

Terminology is a moving target depending on your age, your location and your perspective. What does it mean to be a "meteorologist" exactly in today's world? Well, going back to the old dictionary online you will see meteorology is a student of meteorology; someone who has studied meteorology or taken part in the field of meteorology. Note also the word "expert" is used first in this online definition shown above. Meteorologist is not an academic term though many think it means you have a degree in meteorology.  For example... people with a degree in journalism yet not able to break into the market have taken jobs as a "local on air weatherperson" and while doing the forecast they have enrolled in a program online at Mississippi State. Anyone who has the desire, time and money can take that program and get an official degree in meteorology meaning they earn the right to be called a meteorologist officially. But let's be honest we knew that the Scarecrow had a brain way before he ever was given a degree by the Wizard of Oz and we knew the Lion had a heart always.*

I have been a student of meteorology since I was a little girl obsessed with the weather and sitting on the front porch during the rainy season in Miami watching thunderstorms build in the sky waiting for that moment I "knew" it would start raining any minute. I "knew" that moment because I had been studying the weather. A large hurricane came along and blew down the beautiful Jamaican Tall Coconut Palm Trees near by Elementary school and I soon became a student of "tropical meteorology" and I soon became obsessive calling the Weather Bureau number that gave me the time and temperature several times a day! I followed Weaver the Weatherman as if he was the Holy Grail of Weather being annoyed when a big news story would break into my weather forecast and longed for the hurricane season when maps of the Caribbean showed up on the television screen. Yes I am obviously older than dirt as I actually grew up watching the weather on TV and calling the Weather Bureau to listen to their recorded message. May I add I knew the time of day they actually changed the message so I knew when to call in for the updated message... especially during the hurricane season when they would give information on far away vigorous tropical waves.

What is meteorology exactly? It's an obsessive field of study that there is no real cure for once you have been bitten. Not the most grammatically correct sentence but the most honest one that I could write. You study the weather and at some point you forecast the weather. Kind of like running in the house screaming "Mommy it's gonna rain any minute" at the age of 5 years old and being more often than not right on the money. Fast forward to my daughter doesn't have pay attention to the Weather App on her phone "because my mother ...." which shows more a tremendous faith in her mother's ability to take time away from doing whatever to text her and tell her there is a tornado warning in South Florida. (This is a true story) Or you get an angry WhatsApp message from another daughter who wants to know why you did not warn her there would be thunderstorms in NYC. (Sometimes Mommy gets distracted and forgets to send a WhatsApp message. And then there are times when your younger children begin sending you live video on Snapchat while driving through a Tornadic storm in South Florida showing you rotation off in the distance when you realize your children have been bitten by the love of meteorology.

This discussion comes up online every May or June when people who love meteorology become obsessed with kvetching, whining, complaining and arguing about terminology because there is no real tropical weather going on to talk about during that time period. Once there are named storms traveling along across the tropical basin this begins to take a back seat to real in depth weather discussion. Note some people fear hurricanes vs love them yet once bit they watch them carefully and look online for an early heads up tip that something may be brewing.

So let's back up a bit. One day while watching the weather on Channel 4 in Miami they announced proudly that Weave the Weatherman had been given an honorary degree and became a member of the American Meteorological Association. While they were very excited I was very confused. Why did he need a degree or an award? I mean he was "Weaver the Weatherman" everyone knew that. It was explained to me by a friend who was a neighbor who worked at the National Hurricane Center that he knew weather but he didn't have a degree in meteorology even though he was a meteorologist. I believe his actual phrase was that "meteorology was the study of weather" and he may have used the word "love of weather" but nowhere did he use the word "obsession" though I do believe I figured that out over time.

So it's easy to say that Weaver was an professional meteorologist as he was being paid to forecast or explain or disseminate information regarding the weather. Note every city had their own "Weaver the Weatherman" and most did not start out with degrees in meteorology, but they were paid to be the weather expert on air. I was watching "Dr. George" on TV in the early 1980s when I lived there and paid more attention to geology than weather; again every meteorologist is a closet geologist and every geologist is a closet meteorologist in some way. Note none of the definitions shown above use the word degree as much as "education" "student" "observation" when defining a meteorologist. Degrees are respected but I have known several people who obtained degrees in meteorology who I wouldn't trust to tell me if it was or wasn't going to rain in the next 24 hours. A degree is an award given when you finish a program of study and it's very nice to have especially if you are looking for a job in the field of meteorology today.

There are a list of people without degrees who have made sizable contributions to the study of meteorology who I respect greatly and would pay attention to when they speak based on time, accuracy and their ability to convey the information and the forecast. Note the "forecast" is almost always written by the National Weather Service or the National Hurricane Center and rarely does a meteorologist working for the government or a network veer too far away from the official forecast. Online you will more often than not find someone who speaks up and says "that ain't happening" and that's usually someone like Mike from www.spaghettimodels.com or me or someone else online that can smell a bad forecast and isn't afraid to say it. Remember when the official forecast from the NHC on several advisories called for Hurricane Matthew to loop back and aim it's fury at South Florida a second time? A look back at my blog on Matthew shows the evolution of that forecast and at some point I refused to even show the cone beyond the more accurate and reliable 3 day cone. As an old boyfriend once said "you win some, you lose a lot" or something like that. No that was not happening and I was not going to pretend that it was happening.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2016/10/updated-10-pm-4-matthew-links-loops.html

Weather History was made when Bryan Norcross wasn't afraid to go with his gut and not accept the actual forecast from the NHC that Tropical Storm Andrew was most likely going to the Carolinas but when he was watching the Aviation Model that showed another scenario and he wasn't afraid to show the Door #3 scenario that Andrew might not catch the trof. Last year thousands of people sat up through the night watching Mike talk on Facebook Live during the last hurricane season. Over the years more people than I can even count have paid attention to Jim Williams from www.hurricanecity.com who is a master at the study of tropical meteorology in the Atlantic Basin give his facts, thoughts and opinions on a vigorous tropical wave in the Atlantic. Jim's work is quoted by many in the media and he is a popular guest on panels discussing hurricanes.

Jim and I argue the point often but in my mind he is a meteorologist without a degree and that is most likely why he was asked to be a part of this panel with Max Mayfield and other meteorologists talking about hurricanes. The degree is not as important as his work educating and explaining to people information about hurricane history. I've been asked to speak on hurricanes on panels as well as even being a Keynote Speaker at a Convention on the subject of hurricanes. Am I an amateur meteorologist or a professional meteorologist or simply someone well trusted who often entertains while explaining the weather? I consider myself a Weather Historian and I write a blog so I am a Blogger. I've been paid for my writing I am a professional writer.

Jim Cantore is out on the Plains today ... OKC to Kansas is under the gun from severe weather and most likely tornadoes. Jim Cantore is often a bearer of bad news but a good indicator of where the weather is about to happen. A cold front is moving down clashing with warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico that will create the perfect recipe for TWC to be on air most of the day and night discussing weather vs showing old episodes of how someone on a boat survived a hurricane. Today is a big weather day. The models........have been screaming for trouble and storm chasers who chase Twisters are out on the Plains chasing.  Hurricane Season is a solid month away and yet the current set up allows for the possibility of something forming at the tail end of dangling, dead cold fronts that are still making their way down to Florida or dying trying. It's just the way it goes and whether you are ready or not the 2018 Hurricane Season is almost here. Now is the time to look through your supplies of non-perishables and batteries and argue with your partner whether you do or don't need a generator. If you see water on sale buy it now and store it somewhere if you have the storage space. 

http://www.flash.org/hurricanestrong/

I'm not going to argue the value of models as they are very valuable, however not always reliable and always changing in response to the actual weather that is happening and as weather is fluid not stable weather and models will always change in real time. Never be a slave to the models but do not ignore them either. And, if the weather bug bites you it most likely will bite some of your children. 

Whether it's the Twister in the Wizard of Oz or seeing Jamaican Tall Coconut Palms that were 4 stories high knocked down like they were made from Lego .... you end up entranced by the weather. And lastly I will say there are some people online who use monikers that sound funny like "Cranky Weatherman" and I don't ask them why they call themselves that or what their degrees are or where they studied weather... I follow them and pay attention to them because I know they know weather and they are extremely valuable in our weather community.

What is in a name?

We've been debating that since the days of William Shakespeare and probably going all the way back to the first time someone noticed a cave person drew a picture of the sun on the wall of the cave even if there was no one to send a "snap" of it to their friends! I'll follow Mike and Jim and Cranky anywhere and obviously I have and will continue doing so .... and anyone who pops up along the way who is reliable and an excellent read in the realm of weather forecasting as it relates to hurricanes and whatever other weather is happening. Weather is always happening somewhere and soon tropical weather will be happening as it's only a matter of time. The "High" sets up and the May Monsoons begin and as long as there are fronts moving down towards Florida lingering in the Gulf of Mexico and the Bahamas there is the potential for early tropical trouble.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm

Ps. I am considered a #Longread but not always but today called for an old fashioned long read weather blog post! Note the song shown above is called "Truly Madly Deeply" but it is most often searched for by the terms "I wanna stand with you on the mountain" so yah.... what is in a name?

What's Spinning in the Tropics Tuesday Morning? XTD4? African Waves? Caribbean Convection? ULL Steals the Show..

Sunrise over the Atlantic Ocean on Visible Imagery

It's really such a beautiful world.

Watching the water vapor loop is a good way to enjoy it.

You an see all the patterns and ribbons of convection.

You can see the highs and the lows.

And when looking for rotation in the tropics.

The ULL in the Atlantic Steals the show.

Another view above with some teal blues thrown in.

It just spins and spins.

It's got XTD4 on a tight lease.

Frontal boundaries weak as they may be moving East.

Then they sort of stall out creating flooding rains.

The ULL in the Atlantic deserves an award today.

Sparing South Florida and East Coast from model madness.

And if ULL was not there those models may have been right.

Note the image below..

ULL has XTD4 on a leash.

It's going to go West.

As a weak tropical disturbance that wants to be a TD again.

What will be with the ULL?

Can't say. It's been around for longer than normal.

Models up on www.spaghettimodels.com

Doubtful any recon will go in today unless something really unusual happens. But the NHC is a fluid sort of place that goes into action when needed to protect the people as that is there job. There is a floater up on XTD4 and it's easy to monitor there as well as NRL which is currently still up. But really nothing is happening and that is thanks to the ULL that the models didn't seem to sniff out as well as they should have it seems. Models did get the location exactly right days ago, possibly weeks ago. And again the Euro beat the GFS and the rest of the pack. Euro showed a weak disturbance not formed in the spot where it is currently. It showed a weak low pressure area approaching Florida with various solutions time wise and placement wise. GFS had other ideas as shown below from an old blog post.

The Euro often showed a tropical disturbance.

A bubble in the force of the Bermuda High.

The GFS showed a stronger systems.

Weak systems go West and at this point XTD4 may do Cuba.

Or South Florida.

Or it may somehow make it into the GOM.

It's an early Pre-Season Drama.

Oddly this July is filled with drama.

He said, she said, "No I didn't say that!"

Locally Miamians are praying the rumors are true...

Then there's the Kremlin drama... 

Then there's Facebook putting out this message..

...at the top of everyone's feed this morning.

Seriously why would Will Smith's son friend you?

And in the tropics the plug has been pulled on the African Wave.

Of course if something happens it will be back.

Models for XTD4 shown below.

Looks bound for the Florida Straits.

Miami should have enhanced rainfall.

Hope it speaks Spanish..

XTD4 is basically a conundrum.

More so as it did not totally die.

As it has held on it's a conundrum.

The models made it a bigger conundrum.

Word for the day: conundrum ;)

It is a Tropical Disturbance.

A mass of tropical weather moving together.

More than a wave, not a Tropical Depression.

Wave axis with vorticity 

Note the shadow swirl on the N coast of Hispaniola 

Definition below:

Part of a larger definition.

Stages of Hurricane Formation.

Tropical Disturbance is heads up but not there yet.

XTD4 would be a good example.

Old Tweet but still good thoughts.

Just keep an eye on it.......

Watching tropics is locational.

How we watch on E coast is different from GOM..

Lastly from Twitter I'm posting this one for a reason.

Note the small blob of convection over Miami below.

Miami has had flare ups frequently such as this.

Should XTD4 go there it would be messy.

See video below of parking lots flooded again.

Again remember they paved a swamp to build Aventura.

A swamp filled with mangroves by the bay.

That said it's a nice place to live, dine or shop!

See beautiful :)

Tropical ...

It's all about location. 

The location and history of tropical activity makes us watch.

We will talk about the African waves later this week.

Still there we just aren't talking about it.

NHC back to "show me the money honey" attitude.

I always liked the wave behind the one that was highlighted.

Bigger, nicer, better center. Just my thoughts.

Upper left XTD4.

So watch the videos of some storms that came together fast in that zone.

And have a wonderful day today!

Enjoy the drama in the news or go out and shop til you drop!

Unless you want to stay home and shop on Amazon.

Work, live, love and be happy.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps It's very quiet on Twitter today. XTD4 & African Wave in Dog House.

The GFS model is in the process of an official upgrade.

That's why we been watching the Para GFS that's performed better.

Current GFS is on life support along with XTD4.

Stay tuned.

Keep reading if you want about why I posted these videos.

They show what has happened in the past.

Disclaimer .. Reminder (like Facebook..)...

XTD4 Wave is NOT expected to develop.

But other waves in that area have in the past.

So here's a bit of Hurricane History for y'all.

Current image of Gulfstream water temperatures.

Small storms like Tropical Storm Julia.

Bigger storms like Hurricane Katrina...

Again I'm taking a look back today at the formation of a few systems in this zone that have formed into storms in the past. It is worth remembering many never form and rain themselves out over South Florida and flood places like the parking lots in Aventura Mall and life goes on. 

This "zone" is prone to weak, wandering tropical waves spinning up fast and coming together over the warm waters of the Gulfstream. The key here being this happens when OTHER factors are in place and currently we do not have those factors holding out hope for XTD4 a "system" that is moving West. XTD4 is basically a "tropical disturbance" a term not so in vogue these days. It's more than a wave and but not a tropical depression. In this case it's more like a "Has Been... wannabe again" wave that never totally had it's mojo and lost what mojo it had and yet doesn't totally go away. Often when a TD unravels and fades away it's goes away. Then you have the ones that don't die completely and Zombie like spin up again. And often over the very warm Gulfstream they can spin up fast as if they form a center the water below is hot tropical fuel for storms. Fast spin up is especially common in "small systems" and XTD4 has been a small system from the get go so we continue watching where it goes. It's called "monitoring" vs tracking as we don't have exact coordinates or advisories. At any given hour it flares up, flares down and that is a visual explanation of a wave. Think of a "wave" at a football game that the fans do for the cameras. 

Aventura Mall in June 2013 with it's often flooded parking lot.

Most likely rainfall enhanced by TS Andrea moving away.

June in Miami means rain.... lot's of it.

And then the sun comes out again.

It's a tropical kind of place.

And before you start talking on GW and Miami sinking..

Aventura Mall was built on top of a swampy piece of land...

...adjacent to Biscayne Bay.

The land was about as low as it gets.

Fill filled in the low parts.

A massive city was built on top of it.

I'd love to be at Aventura Mall today.

Just my mood... 

My kids live behind the Mall by the Golf Course.

It's a paradise and sometimes it has it's moments.

Friday might be one of those moments.

For Mike and others..