Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, March 16, 2020

Sing From Balconies, Dance if the Gym is Closed. Do Your Part to Help Others Survive this Global Crisis.




Can't think of a better way to start today's blog.
Why Socially Distance?
That's why.

Yes Socially Distancing doesn't mean shutting down.
You can stay close to others online.
So as I've said before....
... at least there is much we can do online.
We can work, get news, learn and share.

I learned one thing over the last few days and that is that everyone picks their poison at a time such as this and everyone chooses how they will deal with the situation as there really are no hard solutions that will definitively solve our pretty desperate dilemma. Suddenly an incoming Hurricane doesn't sound that bad to many as at least that has a timeline and we have no time line regarding this Virus that is impacting our world.

Oddly we had a debate last night for Biden and Bernie regarding an election that seems far off and far away and if we aren't supposed to gather together how and why are we standing in line together trying to pick between two candidates for a convention that most likely will not be held in any normal way? I know, the past was a good time to figure out how to vote from home on our phones or in some other way but the blame game doesn't solve anything right now. Yes, haters will say we need to get rid of...(fill in the blank)  but that's November, and this is March and we need to stop the fast spread of the virus and do the best we can to protect ourselves individually and collectively. The market is in free fall as the circuits triggered at the opening... people are facing something they have never faced before and that is an enemy that can't be seen with the naked eye but spreads fast everywhere. In times such as these the religious get more religious and they and others look to science to find a solution fast but there is no fast solution and only time will tell how and when this resolves. Again it's good to remember to note the amount who survived and recovered vs the amount who died and again it's good to remind you to wash your hands, lay low but not down and keep busy. Just as we do before a hurricane .... corral your valuables, important legal papers and keep them in one place in a sort of "grab and go" box to either change locations (not advisable now) or to have should you need to find them fast in an emergency.



Again focus on the 77,257 people who recovered.
Note America is totally red now..or close to it.
Give it a day.
Not because people suddenly got sick
(tho some did)
But because test results show the reality...

Below it's obvious the ...
stock market dropped like a rock..
...as soon as the market opened.


As for weather today...
Winter is reminding us it's not over yet.
Some people had sleet.
Some people had snow.
It's cold in Raleigh today... 


Speaking of "snow" it's snowing in Raleigh.
No not the wet, precipitation kind.
Yellow Snow.
Pine Pollen covering everything...
..like huge yellow flakes.
Coating everything.
When you blow the car windshield...
...nothing moves it's stuck like glue.
I keep praying it will help the spread somehow...


As for the Hurricane Season.
Yes there is NO cancelling the Hurricane Season.
One of my Go To Sites is shown below.
He makes early predictions.
The last 3 years were spot on.
He nailed places hit by landfalling storms.



We may be going into La Nina.
But really who knows anything for sure today?
Neutral, La Nina or El Nino...
The Hurricane Season goes on in someway always.

I understand the problem of kids being home from school as I had quite a few kids who actually stayed home in the summer or went to a camp that I had to send lunch with them as opposed to free breakfasts and lunches. I was not rich but resourceful and trust me I'd rather feed them at home in a life threatening pandemic than worry on a free lunch. Amazingly they are trying hard to deliver meals in many places but that can only last as long people are well enough to do so. They are your kids in the end and they can learn at home; I homeschooled a few I know and I've been a teacher and teachers get sick fast because they get sick from all their cute little students with runny noses who are sent to school with fevers that often weren't checked or ignored. You can't keep schools open without teachers and staff.  Nuff said.

This is the time to remember how our ancestors who had very little and no "fast food" to buy fed their large families on very little. Make soup. Make casseroles. Stockpile rice, pasta, beans, lentils (protein) and use small pieces of meat rather than making a roast. Conserve, conserve, conserve... and well Weight Watchers (or WW if u prefer) is closed too as are gyms closing...so cook healthy and turn the music on and dance because the gym is closed but dancing is free.

Love who you love even if you are far from them and hope and pray the Internet stays on so you can read the news or a novel or play a game and talk to your loved ones or work from home. Did Disney know something when they released all those shows onto their service, it makes you wonder. 

Just doing what I do... I write ... I communicate... 

If sharing advice or thoughts can help anyone than I am all in...

While hunkering down hiding from the pollen and germs and socially distancing this I can do... and so I am doing what I can.

With much love and prayers,

BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
As always you can find all your weather info at www.spaghettimodels.com

Ps ... If it was only this simple but ... you can't put singers together to sing this close together anymore...  but the song comes to mind because we are the world, all of us in different ways and we are all in this together but we have to think Global and Act Local.


This "We are the World" from Italy
2020 style...


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Tuesday, September 17, 2019

TS IMELDA MAKES LANDFALL!! Previously Invest 98L Tropical Storm Heads to Texas TD 10 Forms in Atlantic Humberto King of the Tropical Road.


More headlines from the NHC


TROPICAL STORM IMELDA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR FREEPORT TEXAS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL SPREAD INLAND



OH what a day it's been...

I want to go back here to explain how this happens when before late last night there was no official discussion on this area even though I went long on it for days. I was taught and taught by the best that sometimes when convection gets trapped in an Upper Level Low it can work it's way down to the surface. Always drove me crazy as sometimes it happens and other times not, hard to say and after a while you get a feel for the way the water vapor loop as well as the set up to see it might happen but you feel as if you are going out on a limb when there is no model support for what you are seeing going on and sometimes you have to go with what you know can happen. It's at least worth pointing it out and saying there is no model support and I did.


I don't like making videos.
But I wanted to show the water vapor loop.
So I did it.
(then felt worried as again no model support)



I posted images of what looked like a Black Hurricane.
Inside the otherwise dry air.
And made note that in the loop you could see..
... moisture getting trapped inside the ULL


I noted that the moisture was coming from Humberto


And the thing with these ULLs that work their way down..
...to the surface is... 
They can spin up very fast.
And historically that part of the GOM
Near Texas Coast...
...based on the shelf of the GOM..
things spin up fast...
...things intensify fast.
At Landfall.

So I felt it was better yesterday AM...
...to raise it to an Invest.
Also because some models show 18 inches of rain.
Easy to ignore those but still...
...that bayou area floods.
Things happen fast in the tropics.
In real time.
As we learned today.
Mike on Facebook Live said today...
... much has happened this year in real time.
Well he used his words..

He talks long.
I write long.

So I hope that helps understand..
...what just happened.

Headline from NHC
Imelda makes Landfall 
Near Freeport Texas





Tropical Storm IMELDA forms in the Gulf of Mexico.
Making Landfall in TEXAS




(nhc still writing advisory will add it in later.)

Oops.... not a Depression anymore.


Tropical Depression 11 has just formed.
A BULLETIN was sent out.





Tropical Storm Warnings Hoisted.




Tropical Depression 10 has formed.
NHC putting out a package at 11 AM.
As I mentioned below....
... that was pretty much a done deal.


And look at that ... TD 10 already has a follower!



Cone looks very familiar.
Hopefully it will go out to sea like the others.
But way too soon to say for now..
...so continue watching to your ESE.
It's Hurricane Season.

Humberto center stage.
98L getting brighter.
Almost more red there than in Humberto.
Humberto intense but running a bit dry.


Good news on Humberto ... 
..new cone misses Bermuda.
A WIN WIN there!

Wanted to post this beautiful video.
Mark is actually going to Bolivar in TX
For 98L (think about it)

This is why our beaches in Carolinas are loved.


beautiful view of the beach and the waves...
...from offshore Humberto.
Thanks!

And also note in the picture above....
...that wave behind TD10 is intense.
Guess we will see an Invest there...
...when they get around to it.
It's far out and closer problems face Texas.
Priorities.

98L Moving slow.
Waltzing slowly across Texas...



Going to go over things carefully today.
Choose your interest.
1. Texas Trouble as it's close in where people live. Invest 98L
2. Invest 97L soon to find it's name. Atlantic Wave.
3. Humberto... offshore, beautiful to watch spin. Bermuda..
4. Tropical Wave Train coming off Africa still.

Immediacy in time and location...
...draw our attention to Texas.



Note below Humberto off the East Coast...
... taking it's weather to Bermuda possibly.
Rain lingering over Texas.
Sabine River Valley TX/LA


atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

Use this loop and keep this in mind
NWS said Louisiana may get more rain.
Note 98L and Humberto...
...kind of spinning in tandem.
I feel it's possible 98L leans left...
Time will tell.
Too soon to tell.

This radar loop is up on www.spaghettimodels.com
Notice the bands of rain coming onshore.
While the center..or centers stay offshore.
That's a typical Texas set up.
Multiple centers in a closed circulation.
Rain streaming onshore....
...while enough stays offshore.
So it can send more....
Rain.

Heavy rains in Bayou Land = Flooding.
The city of Houston is part of a Bayou.
It's a large metropolitan area...
... much land covered with highways.
Located in a bayou prone to flooding.

It's just a recipe for a slow disaster.
I am NOT saying this is a Harvey.
Harvey was a worst case scenario.

But it is a large area of convection spinning.
And it is slow moving over the next few days.
So it could be a mini Harvey.
And even that is a problem.

Hopefully that does not play out.

So while NHC has it at 30% chances...
...those are for development.
Not for problems.

NWS Houston writes good discussion:


Models show it moving inland slowly.
This grid is from SpaghettiModels.


Shear is low.
If any of those "hot towers" with strong convection.
Get entwined with the stronger center.
It could strengthen a bit.
But this is not about wind but about rain.
Flash Flood Potential.
Looking at a shear map below.


What's there now?


Earthnull...


The rain shield is expanding.
Before...


Currently... 


My bottom line with 98L is...
Watch local media and weather for info.
NWS Houston.. has a Flash Flood Watch.


I know from my brother who lived there....
...flash floods happen before you can type "flash"
So plan accordingly.
Watch for updates.

Remember what NWS Houston said...
About more rain for Louisiana possibly.
Next up soon to be Imelda.
Well if you believe NHC 90%


Looks respectable here below.
Note it's friend following along behind it.


NRL has a map grid up on their site.
When they do that it portends upgrade expected.



Why do we care?
It's currently headed into the Islands.
It could clip the Islands as others have done.
Don't forget Dorian went through the Islands.
Then turned to the left across the Virgin Islands.
Things change in real time.


Long term models below.



Go to www.tropicaltidbits.com for models.
Yes in theory this goes off and follows Humberto.
But a few models break from the pack.
So we watch it and see where it tracks.

Earthnull shows an almost there signature.
Closed yet a bit weak of SW side.
But worthy I'd think of TD status or more.


atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

Here's the loop of the basin.
You can see 98L 97L and Humberto.
Humberto while strong is huge.
Huge and hugely offshore.
But it has a bit of dry air in there.
And Imelda should show up soon.

Again... 98L RAIN 
FLASH FLOODS possible.


Humberto....
Staring at the US ....
...then moving off towards Bermuda territory.


King of the Atlantic today.


See how they are still attached on the Mimic Loop.
Image below.
The ULL that ran with Humberto.
Still linked.


Amazing how these systems link together.
Linkage. 
Theory in International Relations.
But applies perfectly to meteorology.
98L is in there below.
It actually looked more distinct yesterday.


But see it's connection to the lead wave.
Lead wave IN the Islands .. 
The wave behind it.
All the way back to Africa.

Tropical Convergence Continually Flowing.

Weather is amazing.

Wave Train moving off Africa still.

Water Vapor Image below.
Pockets of moisture.
Tropical Waves.
Westbound.


My favorite blue view 


Could one of those become an October Hurricane?
Possibly.

So stay tuned.

Humberto... King of the Tropical Road.


Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

It's National Country Day or something like that..
Incredible Special on PBS.
Been watching.
History and Music.
American Music and History.


Country Music....
...began mostly in the South.
And the South knows weather.
Hurricanes... trouble.
Love, Love Lost, Love Found.
Hurt, Heartache and Happiness.
Give it a listen...









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Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Updated 95L Red now. 6 PM UPDATE.... 95L 9/11 and the Tropics. Home Grown Favored Currently. Down the Road Westbound Issues Into the Caribbean Islands

8 PM


Invest 95L got the red designation.
70% chance in 5 days for development.
40% in 2 days.
As I said at 6 PM I thought that should happen.


And it did.....
... I love that after dark when the sun goes down view.


Separates the intense weather...
..from the general clouds.
You can see more consolidation there tonight.
Can't wait to see what it looks like in the morning.
You want to know what I think?
My son asked me earlier.
He's in Miami...

Here were my thoughts.
Kind of voyeuristic to read but how I think.


BUT..........as it has looked better all day.
and NHC went with red tonight.

I think we can expect designation.
It's near a very populated area.
Everyone is suddenly hurricane shy...
..and even a Tropical Storm sounds scary now.
Not too scary.
But depending on where it forms...
South Florida could get swamped with rain.
It's a Full Moon so tides will be higher too.

At least a Potential Tropical Cyclone Cone.
Upgrade to Depression or TS.
The name Humberto is in play here.

Where it goes?
We need to see for sure where it forms.
Then the models get better.
It's close in and we will have plenty of time.
The water is very warm... in fact HOT.
So let's not... ignore it.

As for the Drama in the Tropics tonight.
It's like the Invest Olympics.


Yes that's what they said....
The huge orange pocket for the new wave.
Most likely Invest 96L over time.
Swallows up itsy bitsy little 94L
In fact the unnamed area has a 40% chance in 5 days.
Invest 94L has an official ZERO Percent chance.


Kind of it's Goodbye Song Tonight.
Well Gabrielle came back so why not 94L?
Shame 94L can't get the I name fast...
...the the new wave would be the J name.
Like Jonah... developing in the belly of the whale.
I'm tired, long day... being silly.
Odd graphic.


It's at the 50 Yard Line.
If it's gonna do something......
...now is the time.

So there they are...
..the 3 contestants for the name Humberto..


Will the new wave come on strong...
...swallow up 94L?
Could be.
Using this song here because....
... looks like that newer wave has teeth.
Jaws... 
Whatever it's name is.



True story.
Confession time.
Used to be friends with Steven's mother
Loved her, tho her husband was a doll.
She offered someone important to her...
..tickets for the premier of her son's new movie.
The person asked...
"why would I want to go see a movie about a fish"
...not to her but to friends.

A movie about a fish.
Jaws.

Yup. True story.
LA Days...
...only earthquakes to track.
Wondering if the full moon will...
...make the earth shake rattle and roll.
I keep thinking we will see a big one soon.

So check back tomorrow..........
Same blog, same tropics.
2019 Hurricane Season.

There are more coming after Dorian.
Give money now please to a good charity.
If you don't know one...
... you can always go with the www.redcross.org
Watch Invest 95L putting on a show below.

atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

6PM

On the loop above you can see 95L
Looking more noticeable.
Also the new wave coming off Africa.
More on that tomorrow.

Just some thoughts on Invest 95L
It's beginning to look a bit better.
As it raised North a bit away from Cuba.
As it's been down near the coast of Cuba.
Convection has looked better and...
... has seemed to come together more.

Various views to show where consolidation is...


Water vapor image above.


Looks like it wants to go RED
Maybe at 8 PM NHC will up it to 70%
Time will tell...

Bright white shows where the strongest weather is..


Visible shows the it off nicely.



Becoming a bit more anchored...
in the environment.





I do expect this will get some sort of designation.
It's too close to heavily populated areas...
...and the set up calls for something to come together.

Stay tuned...




Tropics 9/11/2019
Will discuss 9/11 briefly below.
Don't like to remember it.
But never forget.
But as for the tropics today....


Remember this!!!
Our low chance yellow circle close in..
..is NOW orange at 60%
Officially Invest 95L
Atlantic waves down to Yellow.
95L moving up to red soon.

But a few days ago...
..within the 5 day window.

It had practically no chances to develop.
And all the attention was on the twin waves.
So remember please...things change.
And things change fast.

So giving you my thoughts.
But they can change in real time...
...if a center comes together.
And models change.

atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

If you get some red here on the sat loop.
And it consistently is there.
Watch for formation.
For now....
...remember this is conjecture.
Based on consistent convection.
And some model support.

Starting with our Home Grown Issue...


These are models.
They change, they dance.
At some point them hone in on a target.
You need a center to get a good track.
Because until then you're guessing.
So let's take it apart and look at it.

GOES16-TAW-08-900x540.gif (900×540)

There's nothing specifically in the tropics today.
There's discussion on a large area of moisture...
...without a real center SE of Florida.
Note two ULLs dancing down from the North.
Kind of looks like a chorus line of dancers.


They move down.... 
....into Invest 95L territory.


Nothing happening today.
In theory stealth like it oozes across FL.
Florida Straits...
Becomes a GOM problem.

More a rainmaker than windmaker.


Note the official weather graphics.
It comes together like loose jello.
Oozes across the N rim of the GOM
Moving West near New Orleans.
Tho know yesterday it hit Tally

Today's graphics.



Last night.


So what does www.windy.com show today?


2 models below for Sunday.


Both show convection.
EURO shows more of a center below.
But forming close in...


So what do you do?
You keep it in mind.
Check back tonight and tomorrow.
Take it one day at a time.
Until a center forms it's rain.. 

But any concerns on close in development...
heighten our concern.
So I began there.
But again currently nothing there.

Earthnull Wednesday Morning.


(ignore green circle it's where my pointer was..)

Clouds on satellite imagery.
Note high pressure to the North.
It's not going North.
Taking a Florida Keys vacation probably.
But as it's not formed yet.
Rain will be everywhere.


72 Hours out...



A low with a little trough ....
...moving through Florida Straits.
North Coast of Cuba.
Miami Naples to the North.

Going to be a rainy weekend...
that's no surprise most of the time in SFL.
If I was in Miami I'd go down with my brother...
...get some great pics of roll clouds or tall clouds.
Or rain moving in from the Bayside.

So what about that Low to the West of the Islands.

Well we have models for that too....


Starting with models from www.spaghettimodels.com
They are originally from www.tropicaltidbits.com

If the NHC was drawing a wide cone.
Would be everywhere.


Best loop above to watch formation begin.
When you see the orange kink up...
...begin to make a roll..
And roll along.
There's spin.


It's not really round.
It's not flat.
Looks like it's wearing a hat...
...with a feather in it.
Call it Humberto maybe.

Note tho the orange flow of moisture.
See how it's all linked together?
West of 95L N of PR... 
...DOWN to 94L
Behind 94L the mess of 96L?
All the energy linked together.
Orange is moisture.
Moisture is energy.
Blue is cold no go zone.
And you can see our shear producer there.


So rather than typing this out.
I talked out loud for you.
The Water Vapor Loop tells the story.
I can put up shear maps....
... go long on words.
Easier to talk here and show the loop.



I'm not using heavy meteorological words.
I'm trying to explain and share with people.
Levi Cowan uses great meteorological lingo.
Jim Cantore does it like Shakespeare... 
I'm just BobbiStorm.
Being BobbiStorm.

So watch another view below.
In motion.
Check back often.
Things change fast.

hiatlsat_None_anim.gif (768×496)

But see how when that "cinnamon roll"...
... hard to see on this loop.
But easier to see on the Water Vapor.
Blows the new Wave apart.
It has to get further West.
West of 50 degree longitude.

Possible East Coast threat.
Or Carib and Cuba...
Or Florida
Or GOM
Too soon to tell.

Check back later.
Know we are knee deep in Hurricane Season.

As for 911...

Said this before but for newbies.
I was watching TWC talk on Erin...
...oddly up high in latitudes.
Talking to my best online friend.
And suddenly they disappeared.
Like poof.
That wasn't so unusual for them.
And in those days we talked all morning.
All morning... on and on talking tropics.

My daughter Dina who had just got back from Israel came running in the room and said 'put on CNN ..." and then I understood why my friend went quiet. It became very apparent. Her two brothers followed into the room and we all stared there in shock. One of her brothers said it must have been an accident. Dina had just gotten back from Israel where she missed being blown up by a bomb on a bus because she thankfully missed the bus during the Intifada where kids at pizza shops and on buses were blown up and she knew terrorism when she saw it. She explained they always do things like this in the morning early, then a little bit later they another bomb goes off to injure first respon............ the next plane flew into the other Tower. The debate on how it couldn't be terrorism but some commercial plane accident ended immediately (maybe the pilot had a heartache...  never mind we knew) as everything changed. The rest of the day was a haze of people staring up at the sky terrified another plane would come flying kamikaze style out of the sky into some big building, or a mall somewhere. At the library we took turns covering the reference desk and staring in shock at the TV in the Lunchroom and then even more in shock when a big, huge dark black cloud covered the scene and we realized or were rather told one of the towers exploded... imploded...came tumbling down in a cloud of debris and dust while people on the ground ran for their lives. People inside the tumbling building died trying to help save people but perished. Our naive sense of being safe far across the Atlantic from the rest of the world perished. The world got a whole lot smaller and our fears grew in magnitude. The Pentagon part of the story exploded as did the story of a missing plane that was in theory headed into the heart of Washington DC; as people took their lives and their deaths in their own hands trying to control the situation and deter that plan and though they did they died doing so. Heroic and hard to comprehend still years later.


No doubt on what was happening then.
Dina was correct.
Sadly.

Not sure why I remember this scene...
...more than the one up above.
It was surreal.
I came in the room and asked "what's happening"
No one knew.
Then we knew.


And things changed forever.
But even so at times we forget.
Because we don't want to remember.
It's painful, scary and sad.


Good article.
We forget we were tracking hurricanes that day.
Worried on NY and NE for other reasons.


Hurricane Erin.
No one remembers it.
Eclipsed by 911.
Images on the satellite of the smoke..



So yes...today is 911.
If you have a chance go the museum.
Remember.

Live your life ....
...enjoy each day.

Over time I've met people who were there.
Who escaped the tower.
Who lost family in 911.
Who still suffer from health issues.
Harder to forget if it took your family member.

So on 911 in 2019...
There are no hurricanes today.
Perhaps today is a time to remember.
And to also remember...
... more hurricanes will form.

And to give www.redcross.org
A good day to give charity...
..to those who help survivors move on.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Updating on Twitter in real time.
And I'll update this blog late today sometime.

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