Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, October 08, 2019

UPDATED Invest 91L & 92L October Storm Off the East Coast... Storm & Gale Warnings for NYC An Unraveling Mystery .. Storm With a Kick But Will It Stay Offshore?


So now we have Invest 91L and 92L
Earthnull signature shows they are closing off.

92L 



91L 


Our focus currently is 91L
Or the concept of a coastal storm.
The center may stay offshore but...
...the weather may be blasted on shore.
Look at those purples and reds for Cape Cod.
And ouch look out Long Island!


Visible of Invest 92L
A swirl or a center?
Either way this is about the weather associated with it.




Note NWS has Storm Warnings and Gale Warnings up.




A look at NYC shows the issues.
Ocean facing beaches are going to get pounded.
And the water around Manhattan will be wild.
Don't forget... Manhattan is an island.


Models... track offshore.
But the weather won't all stay offshore.


Compare and contrast with the image below.





Earlier today ...not closed off but trying. 
...below.




You need a closed low vs heavy weather.
Waiting to see what the NHC does...


Not much I can really add other than models for the most part keep this system off shore though weather may impact the beaches and areas such as Long Island that stick awkwardly out into the Atlantic. If you live in any area along the beach that is prone to flooding pay close attention to local news and weather updates.


Rain stays mostly offshore...
....well heavy crazy rain.


Our system stays parked off there.
Models in agreement for the most part.



Euro and GFS... Offshore Storm.


Kids in Miami weren't happy today.
Rained all morning nonstop.







www.spaghettimodels.com

I love the way Mike's mind works.
Models being run on the orange gumdrop in the Atlantic.
Later they will become Tutti Fruitti 
.....as they mix flavors close in.

The water vapor image below shows the parts.
Curling up Eastern Orange Swirl.
Tropical Plume of Moisture with two lemons.
And a digging serious cold system out in the Plains.
When they come together watch out.

Already windy at the Outer Banks 
(what else is new...)
And in NC I'm waiting for the lead front...
... out on the Plains people are waiting on snow.
And everyone wants to know..
Does it get a name?

I hope so as it would explain what it is....
... as Coastal Storms/Gales get hyped too much.
With fake names the media gives them.
Like SNOWCANE (I was there in NYC once...)
There are very few Perfect Storms.





Look at the same view in technicolor
My favorite colors.


My daughter worked on an art project in NY this week.
An incredible artist friend was in a contest.
To build a Sukkoth... it's basically a hut.
Jewish holiday... we build these huts and eat in them.
To remember wandering around the desert generations ago.
You know the Bible Story.. 
Red Sea, wandered around the desert then home to Israel.
But while wandering they had temporary shelters.
It's a custom to decorate them ...
...but there was a concert to build one artistically.
My daughter helped her friend.
They painted it with invisible paint.
So the walls looked one way ....
...unless you had a black light and voila.
Words and pictures appeared.



Reminded me of how weather comes together.
The elements are there clearly.
But until it comes together you don't see it...
...and when you do ... you go "WOW!"

Her friend Rachel won she's excited.
a lot of work, art takes work.

And Mother Nature is writing ....writing....
one heck of an October Storm Story.


The ongoing drama of the developing October Gale...
...off the East Coast.
Close in ... home grown trouble.
But carrying with it moisture from many places.
 Old fruit bowl from Monday Night below.
Compare and Contrast with the new one above.


Leaving you with some information on the real Sandy.
You know the one the TWC mentioned all night last night.

The problem with October storms is that they are filled with surprises and you have to understand the nature of October is that it is a mix of systems some cold core old lows that delivered snow somewhere out on the Plains in places we expect snow to fall in October mixing it up with plumes of tropical moisture lingering off the East Coast. It's like some long prize fight between two opponents one late to the scene and the other a newcomer onto the scene too early. Rocky vs Apollo Creed or LBJ in a race with JFK for the nomination of the Democratic Party or Lady Gaga singing with Tony Bennett. You're just not sure how it's going to play out but you buy a ticket to attend the event. And, then you wonder whether it will be rained out or be a memorable event you talk about for years to come. 

In truth I hope the NHC gives it some sort of name, because if they don't the Media with a capital M is going to blast this all over the media hyping it with shades of Sandy mixed into to a Super Storm ... October Gale, oh my gosh you'll hear so many names for a system that will be most likely anchored off the East Coast slamming the beaches with strong tropical moisture and high wind and heavy surf. It's not a weekend to go to the Jersey Shore unless you want to do some storm chasing or take photographs.

And the reason I say this is that the TWC had nonstop coverage of "not Sandy" all night last night while they spoke wistfully about memories of Sandy against a huge screen with the Sandy Track for over an hour... If I had a dollar for every time they said "Sandy" I could not only go buy an awesome new winter coat but incredible boots and gloves to match! It bugged me a lot as those close to me know as they wanted to make that connection, hold viewers at the screen yet at the same time warn them that much like Sandy the NHC may not treat it as a hurricane yet the general public needs to think of it "like a hurricane" out there as the damage especially along the coast could be high. And that is not to say there could be flooding inland in areas prone to flooding when this sort of set up occurs.

Understand that in truth this is a storm that evolves in real time and there are many variables. So many parts of the puzzle and they were shipped separately by Fed Ex, UPS and Great Aunt Virginia sent the last piece by way of the Postal Service so you can't put it together until they all arrive at your door. No, you just can't order a messy storm on Amazon. I know... just seems so unfair.


I wanted to point out a few facts about Sandy that was a Hurricane down deep in the Caribbean with moisture wound up into it before it expanded and went extratropical but still contained that huge punch much like Matthew another October mess from the deep tropics that was sent North along the Atlantic. So know currently we have pieces of the puzzle being assembled by Mother Nature so remember to check back often to see exactly how it all came together and only then ... much like a snow storm...will the NHC and the NWS get all their warnings and wordage correct.

 "On October 24, Sandy became a hurricane, made landfall near Kingston, Jamaica, re-emerged a few hours later into the Caribbean Sea and strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane. On October 25, Sandy hit Cuba as a Category 3 hurricane, then weakened to a Category 1 hurricane. Early on October 26, Sandy moved through the Bahamas.[9] On October 27, Sandy briefly weakened to a tropical storm and then restrengthened to a Category 1 hurricane. Early on October 29, Sandy curved west-northwest (the "left turn" or "left hook") and then[10] moved ashore near Brigantine, New Jersey, just to the northeast of Atlantic City, as a post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds.[3][11] Sandy continued drifting inland for another few days while gradually weakening, until it was absorbed by another approaching extratropical storm on November 2.[3][12]"


So that was Sandy... for us whatever this is called is one Low off of North Carolina calling down to the Low near Florida singing Follow ME!  And Invest 91L far to the East says ..."wait I want to come along too" so the NC system says to 91L "Follow Me!" and then we see just what will be.

I'll be offline tomorrow for Yom Kippur so check with all those people on Twitter that I follow who do the weather so well and I'll back Tomorrow evening before going up the coast for Sukkos (wink wink) maybe I'll see some weather... but what kind of weather? Stay tuned it's an October Mystery. The NHC has named many systems this season that many argued were not classic systems, but with this close in and it's October I think they may weigh in with a name or some sort of special discussion. I'm not a gambling person but if I was I'd vote on a name and long discussion explaining how it's going extratropical and the wind field is expanding etc... maybe a few sentences using the word regardless....

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps.... still pondering the possibilities of a storm out of the Caribbean later in October.
And there will probably be more snow out West than rain on the East Coast. But too soon to tell.


Labels: , , , , , ,

posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:46 AM 0 comments

Saturday, June 01, 2019

Sunday AM UPDATED! Invest 91L ... Will It Become Tropical Storm Barry? Stay Tuned. Recon Scheduled ... Are You Prepared for Hurricane Season? Tips and Things To Think ON... Pretend Chantal and Erin Are Out there NOW... Headed to You! What Would You Do?

Sunday Morning Update.
Nothing much to update.
Still holding at 60%


Note the mess of moisture across Tex Ok area.
That doesn't need tropical reinforcements.
The area off of the East Coast from an old front.
Invest 91L in the BOC


This morning's Selfie from the NRL


Not there yet.....
....but the ingredients are there.
Put it all in motion.

atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

Compare and contrast from Saturday Night.


Again this not a real system.
It's a potential system.
An area that some models favor for development.
An area the NHC is evaluating and analyzing.
Currently an Invest not a Storm.

Where's it going?
Models shown below.
Sunday Morning models.



www.spaghettimodels.com

Oh do you have your Hurricane Season Tee Shirt?
Order fast ;)
I have mine
Went out for drinks Saturday night with my husband.
I had a hurricane.... of course.
Wore my shirt.
The Season is officially on...

So my thoughts for the 2019 Season?

You know that old song... Let's start at the very beginning, it's a very good place to start. When you begin you begin with...... oh....oops.... with B, C, D because the NHC awarded the A name to a one night stand off the East Coast. Next name up is Barry and as there is an Invest trying to form into a named storm in the Bay of Campeche... we may be looking at a briefly there Barry soon taking a long, slow route along the coast half over water, half over land and as most of it is trying to keep it's toes in the water we may have the real deal sooner rather than later. You can see by it's presentation it wants to spin and run with the ball so to speak in the Tex Mex region near the border. The bigger problem comes later in that it's moisture would hook up with a strong flow of moisture headed for places that don't need more rainfall.


Sunday Morning.


Some consolidation shown above.
Still much of this is in the Pacific.

Saturday Night below.
Compare and contrast with above.


I know we've been watching this for days.
Part of it was in the Epac.
Part of it was in the SW Carib.
And it's "circulation center" seemed over land.
Now it has emerged into the BOC...
Shear forecasts verified and shear is weaker.
Water is warm.
We could have lift off as soon as.......
....hurricane recon goes in tomorrow as planned.


We are definitely in the Highly Favorable range.
Water temperature wise that is......

Details of Invest 91L are below.


This is NOT a named storm... yet.
Though if Andrea is any example.
Barry is in the wings.
This is a great site Mike puts on his page.
Play around with it...
...learn it!

https://www.baynews9.com/fl/tampa/weather/tropical
.map.html/HurricaneIndex#Hurricane_Index-WX

Another good link to keep for this season is Levi Cowan.
He has a floater up and more info on 91L
https://tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#91L

What I want you to take away from this blog tonight is really a bottom line thing. This Invest is an example of why to watch the tropics even when the NHC main page says nothing is happening for the next five days and then suddenly they introduce an Invest that's drinking Red Bull! Andrea arrived briefly on the scene after days of them showing nothing happening. That was fine as Andrea was out in the middle of nowhere going nowhere but it can happen in the Gulf of Mexico often that something that seems like it won't develop suddenly does and the next thing you know is you missed the early yellow circle and there's a named storm out there. Your Whatsapp group is going nuts and you wonder how that happened. Well, if you are reading this blog and watching Mike on Spaghetti Models I'm pretty sure you won't be taken off guard by Barry or Chantal so take this as a notice that things move fast in the tropics. Stay on top of it when making your weekend or travel plans for the summer.


Someone should convince the NHC to use the Ferris name.
Don't you think?
Okay, maybe they are afraid to... 
F storms are always problematic!

I want to start off today asking you to read an old blog.
From June 1st of last year.
I spoke on my concern for a Carolina Landfall...
...and a Gulf of Mexico Landfall.
It's a reminder for new people I know what I'm talking about.
I wrote about a concern on Inland Flooding.... 
... sadly I was on the money with that concern.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2018/06/june-1st-start-of-hurricane-season-will.html

Reading back over what I wrote I amazed myself.
I don't promote myself as much as I could.
So learning from some of the best.
Later please read that blog.
And remember it was written June 1st last year.
Before Florence and Michael.
And if you read around you'll see........
.....I believed in Florence when others called her a Fish storm.

My next concern is to again beg you to prepare for the Hurricane Season.


Always follow @PhilFerro7 in the S FL area!

Please remember to think outside the box when putting together Hurricane Supplies. Use the Dollar Store, Walmart and Amazon and especially watch clearance racks that have great things that are usually near their expiration date and as you only will need them for the next several months they are a great investment. Let's get real strawberry jam doesn't really go bad if you buy it a few months before it's "best sold by" date and will be appreciated if you lose power and are eating peanut butter and jelly sandwiches in the dark.  If you don't use them and you are spared a real hit by a tropical system donate them to your local food bank. It's a win win no matter how you slice it!

Do you need extra vitamins or medicine? Stock up and always keep one extra month's supply of what you consider an essential. Some people consider Red Bull an essential ... well until their doctor tells them to lay off the Red Bull in the emergency room but if you have low blood pressure go for it! If you have high blood pressure make sure you have an extra month's supply of meds. Nothing will raise your blood pressure faster than trying to eat peanut butter and jelly sandwiches in the dark with the power out and the AC off... 

Become familiar with new apps, satellite loops (many have changed or are gone) and take advantage of the many new ways the NHC and NWS are using to try and give you the data directly from the Source so you don't have to believe everything Aunt Martha puts in the Family WhatsApp group!

Get to know websites you use often. Mike's Page 2 and Page 3 are valuable and filled with links you may love and need. When watching his Facebook Live (and I know you all do) watch the various ways Mike uses your favorite sites and learn. Mike's a great teacher. Earthnull for instance has faces there you can see beyond it's main page we show so often online.



We aren't really there yet.
But the NHC really likes it.....

Next suggestion I have for y'all....
.... regarding Hurricane Preparation.

Prepare as if a Category 4 is headed to your door and you prefer evacuating rather than seeing what it would be like to ride out the storm in your house and see how it really takes a Cat 4 Hurricane. If you want to evacuate where would you go? Figure it out NOW! Traveling far away to Aunt Martha might make it difficult to get back home to assess any damage to your house. Moving up the road to a Quality Inn if you don't have the money to fly to Aunt Martha may put you in a place impacted often by inland flooding. This happened last year during Hurricane Florence when people who lived along the coast took rooms up in Fayetteville and then had to be evacuated further inland when flooding became a problem there.  It's easier to plan out this impromptu vacation when you do it now online without a Cat 4 Chantal breathing down your back. 

If you would need to temporarily relocate your children during the school year do you have a relative or friend who would take them in? I don't mean to scare you but after the hell families went through after Hurricane Michael that is reminiscent of Katrina this is a reality that may hit home. Months after Michael there's still barely a place where Jim Cantore can get coffee in Mexico Beach!  Note when I travel I always carry small packs of instant coffee with me. They taste fresher and all your need is hot water. If I do that when visiting relatives who don't use caffeine on road trips, trust me it's good to keep in your hurricane supplies whether staying home or traveling.  If you are a caffeine fiend figure out how and where you'll get your hit of caffeine with the power off and the water not usable ... what will you do? After Katrina hit Miami and we lost power a newbie to the area who had just moved there from Manhattan freaked when the power was out and the local restaurants were closed. She walked over to the nearby Burger King and found it closed. She was in shock... it never occurred to her if her power went out she couldn't find a nearby restaurant open for her morning coffee. Newbies to hurricane country should ask old timers what to do and what their town is like before making a list of things you need for your hurricane supplies.

Learn. Educate. Google. 

Pretend Chantal is out there now with Erin on her tail and your city is not far from the extrapolated NHC Cone. Figure out NOW where you will go and what you will do. Either way, tell your relatives where you will go and stay and update them often. Make a family WhatsApp Group the way you would for a baby reveal ;)


Which name speaks to you..........
....obviously I'm loving Chantal.
And as a fan of One Life to Live...
How can you ignore Dorian?

As always I'll pray for you to stay safe in the storm but I beg you to take hurricane preparation seriously. If you want to live in paradise you need to pay the price and that might be the cost of a generator or a way of out of paradise if Chantal comes to call.

As for me personally I'm in Carolina tonight, but that's a moving target and I may be somewhere else tomorrow night. The song "On the Road Again" comes to mind. Stay tuned and find out where I update tomorrow night from... Truthfully it's been oh my gosh beautiful all day here in Raleigh. It's like someone turned off the Heat Ray Gun and I can breathe and  go for a walk again, have breakfast on the balcony and and remember why I love Carolina which lately felt a lot more like Death Valley. Thank you Lord for moving that Huge High off our neck! Did anyone ever really invent that Heat Ray Death Gun? Pretty sure Lex Luthor tried....

The Coast of Carolina carries some chance for a coastal subtropical storm or tropical attempt at a name down the road. We may make it to Wendy if the NHC persists in this naming frenzy. It's a favored region climo wise for early June development and it's never really too soon in June at this location for a low to form into some early promo for hurricane season to remind you it's hurricane season. Prepare and beware it may be a mean season. Winter came early to the Carolinas with a November Snow Storm. Summer came early in May with a historic heat wave. What will hurricane season do I wonder. You should wonder too and if you live in areas that have been having flooding be it from strong rainfall or river flooding I'd worry about anything that gets up into the Mississippi River Valley in the near term.

Bottom Line:
If this becomes Barry.
And if Barry follows the track the models forecast.
And hooks up with huge amounts of moisture.
We could see more epic flooding inland.
I hate to say that but it's true.


Look at that Purple Scorpio there ...
...in the sea of blue.
Inside the wet forest of green.
That's a lot of rain.
If this comes together it would be a sad start to the Hurricane Season.
A Hurricane Season I expect to include multiple landfalls.
Trust me I hope I'm wrong.
So start preparing now.
http://www.publix.com/pages/publix-storm-basics

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instgram.
Follow me there for real time live updates.
And join in the discussion.

Ps... Again read what I wrote on June 1st last year.. 2018.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2018/06/june-1st-start-of-hurricane-season-will.html













Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,

posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:07 PM 1 comments

Sunday, September 02, 2018

PTC7 HeadGOM. Watches UP. UPDATED! Invest 91L Forecast to Develop As It Moves Into the GOM. Florence Edging More West Than Originally Forecast. We May Need to Watch FLO Closely Down the Road. Bermuda? East Coast? Or Out to Sea?


Late nite update.
PTC7 formed N as expected.
That doesn't mean there is a TD now.
It means we expect a TD to form.
And we are giving people a heads up.
In South Florida there has been crazy storms today.
Heavy Lightning last night.
It is just a tropical disturbance now.
Models take it into the GOM.
The NHC expects it to be a TS.
This is NOT Katrina 2.
Please be clear.
There has been much said online tonight.
I can understand the concerns.
This is basically where Katrina formed.
Different storm, different year.
Similar cone.


Intensify forecast:


I don't see a hurricane let alone a major hurricane.
Granted things often change fast in the GOM.
That is why the NHC posted these watches NOW.

They also have graphics up for South Florida.
A low level flooding concern.


More graphics up at the NHC.



And thoughts from a good source.
Hurricane Tracker App
For those wondering on Florence ....
...and a TD that could become Gordon.
Those are the ensemble tracks.
Yes... Florence "COULD" get close to the US.


More on that tomorrow.
Been a long day.
Hot in Raleigh.
Very hot and exhausting.
Stay tuned.

Oh and a note of caution.
The system in the GOM now is NOT tropical.
Looks tropical.
It could have been tropical if it had more time.
The new Low forming will go where that one is now.
Sounds complicated but happens sometimes.
Again Lows go to Lows...


Kind of like a ghost cyclone

PTC7 is shown below.


Sweet Tropical Dreams
Bobbistorm


For those of you who know me.
I love this song.
It obviously means a lot to me.
I'm sure someone knows why.

@bobbistorm on Twitter

It's not always the storm you think will do you in...
...it's the one you didn't realize would.
:)


*  * *



FLO losing steam.
Watch the NHC cone carefully over the next 2 days.


Explanation of decrease in winds down to 50 MPH.


Stays weak for the next 5 days.


What does this mean?
If this "trend" continues
Expect FLO to be here in 5 days.
Bottom part of today's cone.


IF something changes it could be here...
...closer to Bermuda


IE Aiming at Bermuda...
..not the East Coast.

Florence has a long way to go.
No need to raise flags now...
...but people shouldn't ignore it.
Always stay on top of changes.
FISH STORM may not pan out.
Or be a close call.
More a Mermaid Storm as I said before.


Closer to home.... 


As I say all the time.
Lows go towards Lows.
The area off the SE coast of FL
Hovering over the N coast of Cuba.
High pushes it West...
Extremely heavy lighting in Miami currently.
It's only going to get messier.


Always wise thoughts from Hurricane Tracker App



Stay tuned.
Will update later today.




Models ... eating Spaghetti today.



State of the Tropics Sunday Morning.
Invest 91L for the possible TD in the GOM.
Currently still cruising along the N coast of Cuba.
Through the Florida Straits...
...into the GOM.


New wave with color in the water.
Flo without much color to it's NW
Hmnn.
Below you see the area with 80% in the 5 day.


Only fly in the ointment with 91L above is...
..if it develops sooner and stays over water longer.


As for FLO


Salient part here is...
Not forecasting a hurricane.
Maybe after the 5 day.
Up in the Atlantic.
But not now.



Let's get back to the basics and take an honest look at Tropical Storm Florence. She's out there battling the same inferior conditions that the last several waves encountered, however she is in some what warmer water and "climo" is on her side. It's September and that means we watch tropical waves that depart Africa and currently there is a conga line of waves coming off of Africa; some of those waves better candidates for long term travel than others. Some will develop, others will fizzle and some may provide a few weeks of drama along the coastal cities in hurricane country in the not so distant future.

Take Florence for instance. The models have been gung ho on Florence for a while now, even before it rolled off of Africa it really didn't look that fantastic once it hit the water. But the models were insistent and latched onto it the way a baby knows it's gonna get fed if it cries loud. It's a viable Tropical Storm, but the early discussion (based on the models) about it being a Fish Storm and a hurricane have not yet panned out. If not for the models, back in the old days, meteorologists would tell you that these waves go WNW and sometimes bend back to West depending on the strength of the high. And, if a wave develops quickly it most likely will pull North faster and become a Fish Storm and they may have reminded you that even with what looks like a Fish Storm you have to make sure it doesn't bend back and get trapped when the High snaps shut. The problem with that scenario is that if and when the High snaps shut the Fish Storm is at a higher latitude and it could be a problem for the East Coast. A weak tropical wave would just go West, get into the Caribbean and develop later when it finds a sweet spot and be a Gulf of Mexico problem if it climbs in latitude. Those mets without the models would be giving you good advice; especially with a weak wave in an Atlantic still a bit too dry and not in the warmest of water.



So let's go back to the basics.

For real development to take place in any season you need warm water, light shear, a moist atmosphere and a real center that is aligned well in all levels of the atmosphere. The problem with Florence currently is that she is battling the same crappy conditions (albeit less SAL) that the previous waves encountered. She's holding her own, moving steady WNW but the models were off on the big curve out to sea early on. If that is true what else are the models wrong about?  And again remember the models update in real time and each new model run is updated with new information.

The problem with the NHC is that they NEED their forecasts to VERIFY so as a storm does it's own thing and doesn't exactly follow the program they need to move slowly and explain why it is not and hope that something changes and explain that it looks like it is following the last forecast advisory package but they have made small adjustments blah blah blah. In general the NHC is good and especially good in the 3 day with regard to track but they are horrible when it comes to intensity forecasting. My apologies to my friends there, just something has seemed off all year from broken satellites, forcing people to use new satellite imagery that is often broken and closing off the axis to the old ones that worked better and we won't even discuss the loss of the good ole floaters with the "forecast points" in them. Yes all the channels are wonderful on the SLIDER but it's like those stupid packages ATT sells with thousands of channels and many are just infomercials. I'm sorry a 24/7 infomercial is not a channel and a broken satellite image is not an improvement it's more of a broken toy you are always trying to get to work right. Except at home Momma would take back the toy and demand her money back and TARGET would give her a refund. We are stuck with what it is until it's fixed. 


There is Florence out in the Atlantic.
In a sea of darkness
(dry air)
A large High Pressure area exists.
Note the spotted deadly dry air on the image below.
NW of FLO



Below you see where the really warm water is...
...it ain't where Miss Florence is.


Note where the warmer water really is...
...closer in.
That brings us back to what we said earlier in the season.
This season carries a close in to the coast threat.
IF Florence can get to the warmer water...
...if the high pushes it further West.
It ends up trapped close to the coast.

Run this loop and watch the High.
Don't look for a hurricane.
Watch the "cold fronts"
Do you see a cold front sweep out to sea?
A cold front that would sweep Florence away?

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html


Note really.
They all go flat. 
Cold front, cool front, stationary front.
That's problematic... IF...
...IF... Florence doesn't go Fish early on.
Understand?

Now let's look at the models.
Remember please models are iffy.
They change slowly over time.
They indicate they offer solutions.
Think of them as problem solvers.
Not soothsayers. 

Here we are today more or less


Down the tropical road.

That is a potential problem.

Let's look at www.windy.com
Another view of that model.


Could that be a problem for Bermuda?
Maybe.
Next frames though show it stays South of Bermuda.
Hmnn.
And yes there is a developed system behind it.
Welcome to September.


As for the GFS.
It shows a stronger storm.
A weaker ridge.
More of a Fish Storm


Wouldn't it be fun to see the GFS win one?

I'm not sold on the Fish Storm just yet.
I haven't been all along.
I haven't been because I wasn't impressed with FLO.
Florence is a beginning for what will be a busy September.

Again let's look at that graphic I put at the top.


The problem with 2018 is that the water is warmer near the coast.
And until we get cold fronts, rolling, rolling, rolling...
..we will be flirting with tropical trouble.

As for the tropical trouble in the GOM.
It is a rainmaker.
I'm not going to say it won't have wind.
But it is a huge rainmaker.
Should it form slower, move further into the GOM.
It could develop stronger.
Timing and location is everything.
Currently this is what we are expecting.


We may get a surprise.
Leaving the door open for strong TS.
Note the huge amounts of rain ...
...along the coast and inland.


Would so love a cold front to SWEEP through...
But wishing won't make it so.

Note the Key West NWS discussion.




Now look at New Orleans discussion.
Tropical Depression.


They are on it.
They are watching.
Doing a good job.

Speaking of good jobs.
A real shout out to Mike at Spaghettimodels.com
www.spaghettimodels.com
He finds links that work...
... he updates, he helps advise.
He does a damn good job.


I'll update later

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps..in the ever changing world in which we live....
...it's not easy to always check and update broken links.

Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:13 AM 0 comments