A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Saturday, June 01, 2019
Sunday AM UPDATED! Invest 91L ... Will It Become Tropical Storm Barry? Stay Tuned. Recon Scheduled ... Are You Prepared for Hurricane Season? Tips and Things To Think ON... Pretend Chantal and Erin Are Out there NOW... Headed to You! What Would You Do?
Went out for drinks Saturday night with my husband.
I had a hurricane.... of course.
Wore my shirt.
The Season is officially on...
So my thoughts for the 2019 Season?
You know that old song... Let's start at the very beginning, it's a very good place to start. When you begin you begin with...... oh....oops.... with B, C, D because the NHC awarded the A name to a one night stand off the East Coast. Next name up is Barry and as there is an Invest trying to form into a named storm in the Bay of Campeche... we may be looking at a briefly there Barry soon taking a long, slow route along the coast half over water, half over land and as most of it is trying to keep it's toes in the water we may have the real deal sooner rather than later. You can see by it's presentation it wants to spin and run with the ball so to speak in the Tex Mex region near the border. The bigger problem comes later in that it's moisture would hook up with a strong flow of moisture headed for places that don't need more rainfall.
What I want you to take away from this blog tonight is really a bottom line thing. This Invest is an example of why to watch the tropics even when the NHC main page says nothing is happening for the next five days and then suddenly they introduce an Invest that's drinking Red Bull! Andrea arrived briefly on the scene after days of them showing nothing happening. That was fine as Andrea was out in the middle of nowhere going nowhere but it can happen in the Gulf of Mexico often that something that seems like it won't develop suddenly does and the next thing you know is you missed the early yellow circle and there's a named storm out there. Your Whatsapp group is going nuts and you wonder how that happened. Well, if you are reading this blog and watching Mike on Spaghetti Models I'm pretty sure you won't be taken off guard by Barry or Chantal so take this as a notice that things move fast in the tropics. Stay on top of it when making your weekend or travel plans for the summer.
Someone should convince the NHC to use the Ferris name.
Don't you think?
Okay, maybe they are afraid to...
F storms are always problematic!
I want to start off today asking you to read an old blog.
From June 1st of last year.
I spoke on my concern for a Carolina Landfall...
...and a Gulf of Mexico Landfall.
It's a reminder for new people I know what I'm talking about.
.....I believed in Florence when others called her a Fish storm.
My next concern is to again beg you to prepare for the Hurricane Season.
Always follow @PhilFerro7 in the S FL area!
Please remember to think outside the box when putting together Hurricane Supplies. Use the Dollar Store, Walmart and Amazon and especially watch clearance racks that have great things that are usually near their expiration date and as you only will need them for the next several months they are a great investment. Let's get real strawberry jam doesn't really go bad if you buy it a few months before it's "best sold by" date and will be appreciated if you lose power and are eating peanut butter and jelly sandwiches in the dark. If you don't use them and you are spared a real hit by a tropical system donate them to your local food bank. It's a win win no matter how you slice it!
Do you need extra vitamins or medicine? Stock up and always keep one extra month's supply of what you consider an essential. Some people consider Red Bull an essential ... well until their doctor tells them to lay off the Red Bull in the emergency room but if you have low blood pressure go for it! If you have high blood pressure make sure you have an extra month's supply of meds. Nothing will raise your blood pressure faster than trying to eat peanut butter and jelly sandwiches in the dark with the power out and the AC off...
Become familiar with new apps, satellite loops (many have changed or are gone) and take advantage of the many new ways the NHC and NWS are using to try and give you the data directly from the Source so you don't have to believe everything Aunt Martha puts in the Family WhatsApp group!
Get to know websites you use often. Mike's Page 2 and Page 3 are valuable and filled with links you may love and need. When watching his Facebook Live (and I know you all do) watch the various ways Mike uses your favorite sites and learn. Mike's a great teacher. Earthnull for instance has faces there you can see beyond it's main page we show so often online.
We aren't really there yet.
But the NHC really likes it.....
Next suggestion I have for y'all....
.... regarding Hurricane Preparation.
Prepare as if a Category 4 is headed to your door and you prefer evacuating rather than seeing what it would be like to ride out the storm in your house and see how it really takes a Cat 4 Hurricane. If you want to evacuate where would you go? Figure it out NOW! Traveling far away to Aunt Martha might make it difficult to get back home to assess any damage to your house. Moving up the road to a Quality Inn if you don't have the money to fly to Aunt Martha may put you in a place impacted often by inland flooding. This happened last year during Hurricane Florence when people who lived along the coast took rooms up in Fayetteville and then had to be evacuated further inland when flooding became a problem there. It's easier to plan out this impromptu vacation when you do it now online without a Cat 4 Chantal breathing down your back.
If you would need to temporarily relocate your children during the school year do you have a relative or friend who would take them in? I don't mean to scare you but after the hell families went through after Hurricane Michael that is reminiscent of Katrina this is a reality that may hit home. Months after Michael there's still barely a place where Jim Cantore can get coffee in Mexico Beach! Note when I travel I always carry small packs of instant coffee with me. They taste fresher and all your need is hot water. If I do that when visiting relatives who don't use caffeine on road trips, trust me it's good to keep in your hurricane supplies whether staying home or traveling. If you are a caffeine fiend figure out how and where you'll get your hit of caffeine with the power off and the water not usable ... what will you do? After Katrina hit Miami and we lost power a newbie to the area who had just moved there from Manhattan freaked when the power was out and the local restaurants were closed. She walked over to the nearby Burger King and found it closed. She was in shock... it never occurred to her if her power went out she couldn't find a nearby restaurant open for her morning coffee. Newbies to hurricane country should ask old timers what to do and what their town is like before making a list of things you need for your hurricane supplies.
Learn. Educate. Google.
Pretend Chantal is out there now with Erin on her tail and your city is not far from the extrapolated NHC Cone. Figure out NOW where you will go and what you will do. Either way, tell your relatives where you will go and stay and update them often. Make a family WhatsApp Group the way you would for a baby reveal ;)
Which name speaks to you..........
....obviously I'm loving Chantal.
And as a fan of One Life to Live...
How can you ignore Dorian?
As always I'll pray for you to stay safe in the storm but I beg you to take hurricane preparation seriously. If you want to live in paradise you need to pay the price and that might be the cost of a generator or a way of out of paradise if Chantal comes to call.
As for me personally I'm in Carolina tonight, but that's a moving target and I may be somewhere else tomorrow night. The song "On the Road Again" comes to mind. Stay tuned and find out where I update tomorrow night from... Truthfully it's been oh my gosh beautiful all day here in Raleigh. It's like someone turned off the Heat Ray Gun and I can breathe and go for a walk again, have breakfast on the balcony and and remember why I love Carolina which lately felt a lot more like Death Valley. Thank you Lord for moving that Huge High off our neck! Did anyone ever really invent that Heat Ray Death Gun? Pretty sure Lex Luthor tried....
The Coast of Carolina carries some chance for a coastal subtropical storm or tropical attempt at a name down the road. We may make it to Wendy if the NHC persists in this naming frenzy. It's a favored region climo wise for early June development and it's never really too soon in June at this location for a low to form into some early promo for hurricane season to remind you it's hurricane season. Prepare and beware it may be a mean season. Winter came early to the Carolinas with a November Snow Storm. Summer came early in May with a historic heat wave. What will hurricane season do I wonder. You should wonder too and if you live in areas that have been having flooding be it from strong rainfall or river flooding I'd worry about anything that gets up into the Mississippi River Valley in the near term.
Bottom Line:
If this becomes Barry.
And if Barry follows the track the models forecast.
And hooks up with huge amounts of moisture.
We could see more epic flooding inland.
I hate to say that but it's true.
Look at that Purple Scorpio there ...
...in the sea of blue.
Inside the wet forest of green.
That's a lot of rain.
If this comes together it would be a sad start to the Hurricane Season.
A Hurricane Season I expect to include multiple landfalls.
UPDATED! Invest 91L - 70% Chances for Development in 5 Days - GFS Jumps On Board with EURO and Others... Hits N GOM with Strong TS or Hurricane. Tropics on Friday TGIF GYRE in the Caribbean and EPAC. Invest 97E in Epac. Stay Tuned....
GOM Rainmaker Texas Bound on Father's Day. Trying to Pull Itself Together... And a Reminder to Prepare for Hurricane Season 2018. Do You Know How to Make a Perfect Poached Egg? X 91L Reminds me of a Messy Poached Egg.
A brief update today on Father's Day. The remnants of 91L are still partially attached to the tip of the Yucatan and another part of it set sail for the coast. It reminds me of a Jimmy Buffett song A semi permanent feature of a temporary feeling or in this case a batch of strong convection that is rooted to the tip of the Yucatan and won't go away.. Every morning I wake up, look at the satellite loop and there is a part of what was 91L still attached to the Yucatan. That can be funny or a problem down the road. Part of it going towards the coast of Texas and another part of it remains. In the tropics we don't like to see semi permanent features that set up and wait until conditions get better way down the road. Keep watching. Sometimes they can evolve when conditions become suddenly favorable, much like an old dead and decayed front dangling across Florida that doesn't go completely away while it waits to find a chance to spin up into something.
Last night.
This morning.
Still there, still messy.
Somewhere under that mass of convection.
A low pressure center could be forming.
There is much discussion on this ....
... much convection has come and gone.
Yet the elusive hunt for a center goes on.
It is possible it will finally gel in some way.
Looked better last night...
Give it a few hours.
It flares up.
It falls apart.
It never goes away........
Note Cranky's Tweet's last night.
We went from this...
...earlier on Saturday
To this at Midnight on Sunday.
It flares up.
It falls apart.
In reality two areas are fighting for control.
Centers trying to form at different spots.
In different layers of the atmosphere.
With a center ...
...or without a center.
There will be rain.
And, probably wind and rain.
But to be a designated Tropical System.
Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm...
It needs to have a closed center.
Them's just the rules.
I didn't make them up.
Rules are important.
We will see what happens.
I feel like every meteorologist or weather person wants to be the one to scream "I see it!! It's forming! A new center is forming!!" and I feel like there is at least one meteorologist locked in the closet at the NHC yelling through the locked door "just make it 91L again, just tag it 91L again" and well only time will tell who wins that battle but in truth this really does come down to the area of convection once known as Invest 91L that was downgraded as it was not able to find it's true center. To be a Tropical Depression or TS Beryl it has to have a closed center otherwise it's just strong, stormy weather.
Let me explain something that needs to be kept in mind over and over as the Hurricane Season progresses. Models are simply computer programs that put out a product that is only as good as the information put in and they are unable to create a Tropical Storm they can only show where one could develop and how strong it might be and where it might make landfall and they get another chance to do it every six to twelve hours. Life doesn't give us "do overs" as in the real world we mess up or we do a great job and if we mess up we try to do better the next time. The girl gets away and you don't not get a chance to see her again. Someone else lands the big job you wanted and you have to make do with what you got going or find another opportunity. Only on a Soap Opera One Life to Live could a pregnant woman go over the Brazilian Water Fall and show back up in Landview with the baby alive, well and try to get the baby's father back to become a Super Couple again! This is not Hollywood, it's tropical meteorology and until a closed, verified center develops and maintains itself and the models are run from that starting point do the models get to be as good as we hoped they would be when they were developed. Somewhere along the line we have raised models up to some Super Star status as if they were Divas on a Soap Opera or Super Heroes ready to leap tall buildings in a single bound or however that goes. Even the EURO on it's best day is not Superman.
Maybe you watched One Life to Live. I know a lot of meteorologists who did so... Check out the early names for Hurricanes and the list is littered with heroes and heroines beyond any coincidence. If you did here's the epic scene where an alive Tina (who they thought had died pregnant going over the falls in South America) showing up at her husband's second wedding ceremony. Not even a Rabbi, a Minister and the Mormon Tabernacle Choir could keep Tina from running in and handing the new groom his baby that survived going over the waterfall while in her womb.
Cliff Notes:
Wow.
If 91L was like Tina...
..she would turn into Wilma.
And intensify like crazy by the Yucatan.
But it's June of 2018.
Wilma doing her rapid intensification.
This is not Wilma...
It's having some problems.
And that is what happens in June.
It's why the rhyme goes:
"June too soon"
Some years, rare years, June starts off with a bang in the tropics but usually a weak barely there area of convection battles shear and an Upper Level Low as well as outflow from EPAC systems in June and yet somehow, sometimes they battle their way towards land sometimes becoming a named storm just before landfall. Either way.... rain will be the name of the game. And, some in Texas could use the rain as long as it's not too much rain.
Ever play Chess? I'm not a huge Chess fan though I appreciate the brain power it takes to sit for hours trying to stay three steps ahead of your opponent. Personally I like Backgammon. But I used a Chess analogy on Friday to explain why 91L didn't form earlier in the week when the models were throwing their support behind formation of Tropical Storm or even a Hurricane. If you just looked at that the environment 91L was in you would see it was sheer folly to think it could pull itself together and wrap especially if you looked at the satellite imagery more than the models.
Basically Aletta and Bud were the King and Queen pieces on the Chess board. When you are watching the Yucatan in June you have to take into account that the King and Queen are in the EPAC and in this case the Bishop Carlotta showed up to join them. It was not a favorable area for anything of substance to form from day one. But the models.... all hot and excited in June like Pre Teens out on their First Date were showing huge possibilities that did not make any sense when you saw an area with multiple centers with too much shear, dry air and interference from an active Epac. At some point you have to be able to know when the models are not reliable and when they are spot on. They were not spot on. Models are not Superheroes and they are in fact only computer programs being run and being rerun over and over. Until there is a closed, verified circulation with good data from recon or ground observation the models are only taking their best guess estimate of what might happen and nothing more. They have become raised to personality status "EURO KING" "GFS BAD BAD GIRL" but they are just computer programs. Garbage in... Garbage Out. Plain and simple. And, when you get a lot of garbage it's best to take out the garbage and start over on the next run.
Extremely well said.
Read that over and over please.
Again it's a crowded area.
Hard to develop.
It needs a closed center.
NHC giving it low odds.
It's got odds.
It's in the game.
But low odds.
One last thing I want to say about the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season here is that I don't want to hear how cool the water is by Africa and how El Nino most likely will develop, winter may start early and we won't have as many hurricanes in 2018 as we did in 2017 it will just be your average normal year. Be scared, be very scared of "normal, average hurricane years" and prepare rather than be scared. Nothing may develop that threatens your town, your home and your loved ones. But I am more worried that the water close in to the Continental United States in Hurricane Country is warm, red hot than I am about how cool the Atlantic out near Africa is... This is not a numbers game, it is about how one storm may find it's way to your home town. And, it's about preparing properly in case that happens. Should a center form suddenly . . . the water will be warm enough to get something going but again it needs a center before it can be more than heavy rain and strong winds affecting Texas.
A site that Mike highlights on www.spaghettimodels.com is from a local Florida News Station and they have really great maps. One shows how warm the water is as in available energy to produce a Hurricane or Tropical Storm and this map changes constantly in real time based upon current conditions. Currently the water is hot in parts of the Gulf of Mexico and off the Florida coast and up along the Carolina Coast as you can see up above. Worry on that more and less on how cool the water is in June near Africa as in August it will be warm enough and ready for a few great tropical waves to develop. IF they make it to our part of the world our water is very warm and will be very welcoming so even if they do not develop far out they can become Home Grown Problems.
My last thought today on this area in the GOM.
If you ever saw me try to make poached eggs...
...you'd understand.
Or maybe you have tried.
It's not so easy to get them to be perfect.
I've never learned how to make great poached eggs like Aunt Ada did, but my younger brother Ronnie kind of mastered it somehow. Maybe he got that gene... making the poached eggs properly gene if there is one. Mine really do come out all messy with strands going in every direction, a few trying desperately to warp around what appears like a yellow yolk in the bottom of a pan with threads of white everywhere not really coming together. After enough time elapses it begins to resemble a poached egg (if you scoop away all the strands floating everywhere) and with a slotted spoon place it onto the plate and pretend it's a "poached egg" but it ends up looking more like a badly formed soft boiled egg outside the shell. Why am I talking about poached eggs? Because when I looked at the satellite imagery tonight on a long loop that is what I saw was how my poached eggs look when they aren't really coming together. Not my Aunt Ada's perfect poached eggs that were like Cat 3 poached eggs but my failed attempts at me trying to make a normal poached egg.
We are doing pizza and ice cream today.
Got my husband who is a father, stepfather and Grandpa breakfast.
Bagel place he likes that's "New York" style.
Tonight we be doing Pulled Brisket.
I'll leave the poached eggs to the experts.
Yup... X 91L a big messy poached egg gone wrong.
But the rain, the wind still remains.
Besos BobbiStorm
@Bobbistorm on Twitter
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter.
Ps.... Here's to my youngest brother Ronnie. Happy Father's Day! He's here with my nephew Chaim and my youngest son who has been living with him since I moved to Raleigh. In truth I am in Miami constantly but over time he has been there for my son (and other members of the clan) when needed and as my brother says he is more a partner in crime to my son than an Uncle. But he is "Uncle Ronnie" and always there to go root the Marlins on when in town or go for a long ride or sneak away somewhere like the Keys or Naples on a Sunday Afternoon. My Uncle was a Gator and my father was a UM Hurricane so I root for both ;) and the Marlins of course!
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm