Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, October 08, 2019

UPDATED Invest 91L & 92L October Storm Off the East Coast... Storm & Gale Warnings for NYC An Unraveling Mystery .. Storm With a Kick But Will It Stay Offshore?


So now we have Invest 91L and 92L
Earthnull signature shows they are closing off.

92L 



91L 


Our focus currently is 91L
Or the concept of a coastal storm.
The center may stay offshore but...
...the weather may be blasted on shore.
Look at those purples and reds for Cape Cod.
And ouch look out Long Island!


Visible of Invest 92L
A swirl or a center?
Either way this is about the weather associated with it.




Note NWS has Storm Warnings and Gale Warnings up.




A look at NYC shows the issues.
Ocean facing beaches are going to get pounded.
And the water around Manhattan will be wild.
Don't forget... Manhattan is an island.


Models... track offshore.
But the weather won't all stay offshore.


Compare and contrast with the image below.





Earlier today ...not closed off but trying. 
...below.




You need a closed low vs heavy weather.
Waiting to see what the NHC does...


Not much I can really add other than models for the most part keep this system off shore though weather may impact the beaches and areas such as Long Island that stick awkwardly out into the Atlantic. If you live in any area along the beach that is prone to flooding pay close attention to local news and weather updates.


Rain stays mostly offshore...
....well heavy crazy rain.


Our system stays parked off there.
Models in agreement for the most part.



Euro and GFS... Offshore Storm.


Kids in Miami weren't happy today.
Rained all morning nonstop.







www.spaghettimodels.com

I love the way Mike's mind works.
Models being run on the orange gumdrop in the Atlantic.
Later they will become Tutti Fruitti 
.....as they mix flavors close in.

The water vapor image below shows the parts.
Curling up Eastern Orange Swirl.
Tropical Plume of Moisture with two lemons.
And a digging serious cold system out in the Plains.
When they come together watch out.

Already windy at the Outer Banks 
(what else is new...)
And in NC I'm waiting for the lead front...
... out on the Plains people are waiting on snow.
And everyone wants to know..
Does it get a name?

I hope so as it would explain what it is....
... as Coastal Storms/Gales get hyped too much.
With fake names the media gives them.
Like SNOWCANE (I was there in NYC once...)
There are very few Perfect Storms.





Look at the same view in technicolor
My favorite colors.


My daughter worked on an art project in NY this week.
An incredible artist friend was in a contest.
To build a Sukkoth... it's basically a hut.
Jewish holiday... we build these huts and eat in them.
To remember wandering around the desert generations ago.
You know the Bible Story.. 
Red Sea, wandered around the desert then home to Israel.
But while wandering they had temporary shelters.
It's a custom to decorate them ...
...but there was a concert to build one artistically.
My daughter helped her friend.
They painted it with invisible paint.
So the walls looked one way ....
...unless you had a black light and voila.
Words and pictures appeared.



Reminded me of how weather comes together.
The elements are there clearly.
But until it comes together you don't see it...
...and when you do ... you go "WOW!"

Her friend Rachel won she's excited.
a lot of work, art takes work.

And Mother Nature is writing ....writing....
one heck of an October Storm Story.


The ongoing drama of the developing October Gale...
...off the East Coast.
Close in ... home grown trouble.
But carrying with it moisture from many places.
 Old fruit bowl from Monday Night below.
Compare and Contrast with the new one above.


Leaving you with some information on the real Sandy.
You know the one the TWC mentioned all night last night.

The problem with October storms is that they are filled with surprises and you have to understand the nature of October is that it is a mix of systems some cold core old lows that delivered snow somewhere out on the Plains in places we expect snow to fall in October mixing it up with plumes of tropical moisture lingering off the East Coast. It's like some long prize fight between two opponents one late to the scene and the other a newcomer onto the scene too early. Rocky vs Apollo Creed or LBJ in a race with JFK for the nomination of the Democratic Party or Lady Gaga singing with Tony Bennett. You're just not sure how it's going to play out but you buy a ticket to attend the event. And, then you wonder whether it will be rained out or be a memorable event you talk about for years to come. 

In truth I hope the NHC gives it some sort of name, because if they don't the Media with a capital M is going to blast this all over the media hyping it with shades of Sandy mixed into to a Super Storm ... October Gale, oh my gosh you'll hear so many names for a system that will be most likely anchored off the East Coast slamming the beaches with strong tropical moisture and high wind and heavy surf. It's not a weekend to go to the Jersey Shore unless you want to do some storm chasing or take photographs.

And the reason I say this is that the TWC had nonstop coverage of "not Sandy" all night last night while they spoke wistfully about memories of Sandy against a huge screen with the Sandy Track for over an hour... If I had a dollar for every time they said "Sandy" I could not only go buy an awesome new winter coat but incredible boots and gloves to match! It bugged me a lot as those close to me know as they wanted to make that connection, hold viewers at the screen yet at the same time warn them that much like Sandy the NHC may not treat it as a hurricane yet the general public needs to think of it "like a hurricane" out there as the damage especially along the coast could be high. And that is not to say there could be flooding inland in areas prone to flooding when this sort of set up occurs.

Understand that in truth this is a storm that evolves in real time and there are many variables. So many parts of the puzzle and they were shipped separately by Fed Ex, UPS and Great Aunt Virginia sent the last piece by way of the Postal Service so you can't put it together until they all arrive at your door. No, you just can't order a messy storm on Amazon. I know... just seems so unfair.


I wanted to point out a few facts about Sandy that was a Hurricane down deep in the Caribbean with moisture wound up into it before it expanded and went extratropical but still contained that huge punch much like Matthew another October mess from the deep tropics that was sent North along the Atlantic. So know currently we have pieces of the puzzle being assembled by Mother Nature so remember to check back often to see exactly how it all came together and only then ... much like a snow storm...will the NHC and the NWS get all their warnings and wordage correct.

 "On October 24, Sandy became a hurricane, made landfall near Kingston, Jamaica, re-emerged a few hours later into the Caribbean Sea and strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane. On October 25, Sandy hit Cuba as a Category 3 hurricane, then weakened to a Category 1 hurricane. Early on October 26, Sandy moved through the Bahamas.[9] On October 27, Sandy briefly weakened to a tropical storm and then restrengthened to a Category 1 hurricane. Early on October 29, Sandy curved west-northwest (the "left turn" or "left hook") and then[10] moved ashore near Brigantine, New Jersey, just to the northeast of Atlantic City, as a post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds.[3][11] Sandy continued drifting inland for another few days while gradually weakening, until it was absorbed by another approaching extratropical storm on November 2.[3][12]"


So that was Sandy... for us whatever this is called is one Low off of North Carolina calling down to the Low near Florida singing Follow ME!  And Invest 91L far to the East says ..."wait I want to come along too" so the NC system says to 91L "Follow Me!" and then we see just what will be.

I'll be offline tomorrow for Yom Kippur so check with all those people on Twitter that I follow who do the weather so well and I'll back Tomorrow evening before going up the coast for Sukkos (wink wink) maybe I'll see some weather... but what kind of weather? Stay tuned it's an October Mystery. The NHC has named many systems this season that many argued were not classic systems, but with this close in and it's October I think they may weigh in with a name or some sort of special discussion. I'm not a gambling person but if I was I'd vote on a name and long discussion explaining how it's going extratropical and the wind field is expanding etc... maybe a few sentences using the word regardless....

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps.... still pondering the possibilities of a storm out of the Caribbean later in October.
And there will probably be more snow out West than rain on the East Coast. But too soon to tell.


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posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:46 AM 0 comments

Friday, May 25, 2018

UPDATED! SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORMS From Invest 90L- Trying to Reason With Hurricane Season on Memorial Day Weekend.


Subtropical Storm Alberto Has Formed.
Officially at 11 AM
NHC will issue advisories.
Closed circulation shown below.


Subtropical Storm Alberto will be officially on the maps as of 11 AM with cones and other relevant information. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov Refer to their site for all the official information. I'll update this blog early in the afternoon after the next model runs and hopefully after getting information from recon.  Note the morning visible of Alberto below.


Wider view below.

1000x1000.jpg (1000×1000)

Again this is a lop sided system.
Subtropical = oblong 
Currently the wxr is off to the right
NW to be exact.

Note the image below screen shot from Mike's Facebook Live where he showed possible points of landfall as per the models. Note the stronger colors to the right of the point of landfall. This may make landfall give or take around Mobile Bay, but the weather in the Florida Panhandle is going to be memorable on Memorial Day Weekend. If you can get some partying in tomorrow go for it as the weather will go downhill closer to Monday.


I'll be back with all the cones and whistles later.
Again refer to the NHC and Spaghetti Models.

www.spaghettimodels.com

I'm out and about shopping and doing things so I can be back here in a little while with updated information. For now they are now hoisting their flag early and it's a good call and it was time to do it. Let's see what Recon finds when they fly down into Alberto. 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season has begun whether you are ready for it or not!

Feel free to keep reading as the information is still timely. We just officially have what was already being called Alberto by most of us. 

* * *

Holding at 90% over the next 2 days.
The 5 day has now become the 2 day.


Note that the winds are beginning to tighten up.
Stronger winds closer to strongest convection.


INVEST 90L (note I shaded that in the picture above in blue) is slowly setting sail leaving land behind. Once out over land the Hurricane Hunters will fly down and try to gather more information about Invest 90L to see what is really going on with it. That data they will gather will be added into the next few model runs and in theory... the models should get a better handle on where it's ultimate destination is in the end game. It's obvious it's North bound into the Gulf of Mexico but will it sail steadily North or will it hook a bit to the left as most models indicate it will? Is it possible it will loop or stall? That is a possibility too. When watching a deep, diving cold front it is easier to forecast how a storm will be influenced by it, but when you are watching a digging upper level feature that will clash with a developing subtropical or tropical system it's harder to analyze the battle going on between the two as the set up is fluid and not carved in stone. 

Again as I wrote yesterday, "Alberto" is like a pirate and often a pirate ship would hoist several different flags but whichever flag it was flying it was still a pirate. Invest 90L aka Alberto aka "huge gale system" is still an area of stormy weather with strong winds, high waves, much convection and it will bring with it high tides as well as beach and boating dangers. Flooding is a definite possibility as the area it is traveling towards has been inundated with rain for the last week or more depending on the particular area. You know the saying... "when it rains it pours" and that applies here. We don't name "huge Gale systems" so the NHC will probably upgrade it to "Subtropical Storm" and no not even TWC names Gale Systems.  Sorry it's going to wash out many people's Memorial Day Plans. Always good to have a Plan B or options. 

There is something about Memorial Day and Labor Day that brings out both the crazy people and tropical storms that threaten to throw a wet blanket on people hoping to party at the beach. Usually Memorial Day in Miami (for example) is a messy mix of Monsoon Weather and Weak Tropical Waves adding to the drama of the daily tropical down bursts and added tourists looking to party. Cities along the Gulf Coast are used to dealing with systems that are weak but a pain in the proverbial ass.  I feel bad for those losing money either on vacation deals they can't cancel and also the local beach vendors who are usually the back bone of America's Mom and Pop stores that service the beach goers. But it's not that uncommon and this is the time of year that if it's going to happen it will happen in this area. 

Today the beaches are beautiful and the weather tomorrow will be beautiful, but day by day the weather will degrade and people will be dealing with whatever Alberto becomes. Today is that day to try and figure out what you will do this weekend and early into next weekend if the moisture from what should be Alberto comes your way. Check out the movies and indoor events, binge on Netflix or make a Netflix Party with your friends and binge together. Shop for school supplies or hurricane supplies or finish your Spring Cleaning. Yes it is still officially Spring.

I will update the blog later today after the next model run and after recon goes in (which it will probably do unless they bail out and try again tomorrow morning) and update this blog with actual model data and deeper discussion. What I want to leave with you this morning is the slow, tenuous birth of what most likely will be Alberto is in the end stages, Mother Nature is cranky and really does not want to hear you ask one more time "so how are we doing? is today the day?" because she's tired but Alberto should appear over the next 2 days as we are at a 90% chance already for the next 24 chances. I'm not much of a gambler, but I'd take those odds.  Note the paragraph below and read it over a few times as it is the best advice anyone can give you. Check with your local authorities about the weather associated with Invest 90L aka "Alberto" and plan accordingly. Check with your local authorities often as these type of storms change often in development; multiple centers battle each other for control of the storm as well as the distant squalls far from the actual coordinates as "subtropical storms" have weather far removed from the center... think of them like equal opportunity employers in that everyone gets to go to work to deal with wild weather.


If you want to run the models.
They are on the top left hand below.



See most of the models are coming together.
NHC waits like a sly fox.
Waiting until they have the cone drawn for them.
You can almost draw the cone yourself.



The only real problem with Subtropical Storms is the cone for movement of the center is drawn, but the weather goes everywhere. The local National Weather Service offices are tasked with providing up to the minute watches and warnings for their local coverage areas. That means every town along the coast (and it's a lotta coast) is receiving information sent out over multiple sources be they online, on air or through social media. But like the proverbial tree in the forest ... someone needs to tune in and pay attention to hear the watches and warnings.  In today's world there is no reason for people to not know bad weather is coming unless they have totally ignored it as your phone beeps, your television screen shows it and your WhatsApp groups go crazy. Two young boys were killed in Hurricane Andrew when they took their small but nice boat out as early forecasts showed Hurricane Andrew catching a front and missing South Florida. Things changed fast and at the same time Andrew changed directions Andrew went through rapid development and it was too late for those two young boys. This is not Hurricane Andrew but it is a storm and all storms carry inherent dangers especially going into a 3 day weekend and especially when many may not understand the dangers of a large, tilted, messy subtropical storm that seems far out in the Gulf of Mexico away from your particular harbor.  Please plan accordingly and check with them often. Like produce that is best when it is grown locally in season.... no one covers your local weather better than the NWS. https://www.weather.gov Those dangers at the beach include rip tides that come out of nowhere so please watch the watches and warnings carefully and again they change in real time. 



I suggest you follow and read posts written by Cranky Weatherman on Twitter. He explains the many factors affecting the development of Invest 90L into Alberto. It's a long read I warn you but a great read. http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e052418b.htm Note there are many online holding out the possibility Alberto finds a sweet spot close in to the coast with minimal shear and extremely warm water and allows Alberto to flirt with hurricane strength. There are also opinions online that Alberto could start swimming loops in the Northern Gulf of Mexico and as Alberto did not watch the segment on TWC on how to survive in a flood and falls apart in the GOM a victim to rapidly changing, unfavorable conditions. Understand both are possible, but only the NHC makes that call so when reading various discussion know it's possible but too soon to tell. Know the difference between shooting the breeze online and a map that the NHC will put out with directions on how to read the map in the longer discussion. Do not just go to the NHC for the pictures!

I just want to point out the bigger problem here is the weather that we already have going on that exacerbates the set up for the landfall of Alberto. There are flooding watches out now for #rain today in parts of Alabama far inland and this has nothing to do with Invest 90L down by the Yucatan. But, it's also that rain and associated low pressure that will help suck Alberto North towards that part of the Gulf of Mexico.





Stay tuned.

Currently Invest 90L is still battling shear and dry air to it's West and NW and the only real steering current is a weak, slowly diving trough. Your usual suspects of Upper Level Lows are out there as well as dry air, shear and marginal water temperatures until you get close in off shore some of the most beautiful beaches and coastline in the country. Please read below the many ways Alberto will be much like a pirate flying different flags but just remember it's a storm and it will have much stormy weather.


Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps.. Thanks for your patience and please read the previous post where I explain why we should view Invest 90L as a pirate of sorts and again go to the movies.... this is Memorial Day Weekend and Lord knows the movies are dying for some of your attention...or watch Netfllix ;) and remember the beach isn't going anywhere and you have the rest of the summer to enjoy the beach or the pool or the lake. And a vacation at the beach on a cloudy day is still a vacation at the beach... enjoy the breeze, the view and keep checking with your local NWS. 



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posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:10 AM 0 comments