Updated. Thursday Morning. Mid Week Look at the Tropics... Still Looking at Home Grown Trouble From Stalled Frontal Boundary. Waiting on the Atlantic to Be More User Friend for Waves.. A Bit of Hurricane History ...How 1960 Evolved into Hurricane Donna. Old TV Hurricane Footage.

Why do we keep saying HOMEGROWN

CLOSE IN?

Because the tropics aren't friendly far out.

But close in... there is some support.

I listened to Mike today online on Facebook Live.

Such a joy to sit and just listen to him talk.

Can really listen to him talk forever. Really.

https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/

www.spaghettimodels.com

If you aren't his Facebook friend ...why aren't you?

He does Facebook Live around 9:19 AM.

Why then?

He's a Super Daddy for his two adorable girls.

He does carpool.... before putting his Weather Cape on ;)

Seriously nothing pressing and nothing much changed.

So enjoyed listening this morning.

As for the old NHC...

Still on nothing for 5 days from the NHC.

I'll update when they decide to change that.

And models keep offering solutions for down the road.

Models aren't really bullish.

Every other run they show something.

Then they take it away.

From www.windy.com Thursday AM

Nothing too organized.

I do think the potential IS there tho for something.

Something may form in the Caribbean.

But have a problem seeing it rip into Texas.

Again it all depends on steering currents later.

But for now everything hooks right into the front.

Everything along the coast hooks right.

That would have to change for me to worry less...

...on NE GOM coast.

You can put this loop into motion.

But what I want to say is this...

...currently and for a while the front is the thing.

The front lies lazily draped across the SE

North Florida.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=24hrs&anim=html5

As we move further into September fronts only get stronger.

Not "WOW OH MY GOD" strong.

But stronger. 

I'm worried on East Coast storms obviously.

And Florida juts out into Caribbean saying.

"check out my beaches..."

Watch as that wave makes it into the Caribbean.

See what happens in a few days.

But check out that flow.

And that flow has been set in stone for weeks.

Things do keep reforming around Louisiana.

I note that every day in my head.

But then that front... 

Weak systems have become absorbed in the fronts.

But stronger systems will ride the front.

Merge... flooding rain across a large area.

Much depends on how the pattern evolves.

This map repeats in the blog.

It's a great old newspaper map.

1960.

Hurricane Donna.

From Africa to New England and Beyond.

Not a busy season.

But famous for Donna.

Across the whole East Coast!

If you didn't read yesterday's blog.

PLEASE do as it explains in depth what I am saying.

And showing Hurricane Donna as an example.

It's a good example. 

Read on to see why.

Nothing expected to form in the next 5 days....

Despite that forecat from the NHC.

Other official sites hint at development.

In lots of places.

It's like they are painting the tropics purple.

What's with that image below?

I love purple as much as the next girl.

But... well it's moving towards late August.

Another week or so...

...things could change...

That said there is a congregation of convection....

...in the GOM close in to the coast.

You can see the image below.

That high is so strong it appears there's an eye in it!

Daily flare ups in the Gulf of Mexico.

Waves riding low South of the High.

I know I have said this for days.

Tedious ... isn't it?

Yet NOAA raises their outlook for a busy season.

Note the area off of South Florida.

The long line... 

A Tropical Wave.

The edge of the High.

Down the road I'm concerned on that area....

...close in for homegrown development.

Let me use an example of some Hurricane History.

How and why patterns are important.

Check out this link later:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1960_Atlantic_

hurricane_season#Tropical_Storm_One

1960.

Not the busiest year but a year we all remember.

But how did it begin?

July a nice wave gets squashed by a strong high.

Stays alive but suppressed.

Moves Westbound into Central America.

Next comes early late August.

Again a strong high suppressed the Atlantic.

Weak system forms in NE GOM.

Typical... moves up along the coastline.

Now look at 2019...

We've had weather there all July and August.

They keep getting absorbed into the frontal boundary.

Every week a different weak frontal boundary.

1960 Next system.

Another TD3 sort of set up as we had this year.

See... similar in ways.

Weak system off the coast.

Weak frontal boundaries.

Then 1960 moved on a bit.

Late August a strong tropical wave rolls off Africa.

A plane crash happens in a strong thunderstorm.

Bad omen ... 

... Donna keeps rolling under the huge high.

Lifts better than System 1... 

At some point in late August the high inhales a bit.

And it ends up retracing the tracks of the 2 earlier storms.

Look at the 2 storms that came first above.

You see it's the same pattern.

But later in the season with a stronger reaction.

I am not saying we will have another Donna.

The name has been retired.

But showing you how a pattern develops.

It could have gone through the Keys and continued West.

It could have curved North like Floyd did and missed Florida.

Every storm is different.

But within one year a strong pattern bears watching.

Mike last night posted this video.

I thought on it but wanted to keep the blog short.

It's old black and white.

Miami's own Clark Kent... Ralph Renick

Another view of Donna ...

BUT.......

Remember this is from Miami perspective.

Everything is perspective.

Donna threatened the whole East Coast.

Can you imagine the clean up bill for that today.

Miami, Tampa, Along the SE Coast.

NC.... gains speeds NJ Shore, NY, Long Island.

"still Donna rages on"

New England.

Good luck on that scenario.

Hope it doesn't play out again.

But it has over time so will again.

Used "again" twice as history repeats often.

So back to 2019.

Another person worth watching is Cranky on Twitter

https://twitter.com/crankywxguy

His excellent long read is linked to below:

http://www.stormhamster.com/entry2/e081419.htm

Cranky explains the players.

It's easy as A B C but.... 

A B C need to all meet up just right.

Not so easy...

He can make maps and write.

It's all there laid out for ya.

I just can't say yet things will hook up just right.

To create a named system.

Possibilities in the wind.

Another voice worth listening to ...

https://twitter.com/crownweather

His site is pay for view.

It's worth a view if you got the money.

If not you can read his thoughts on Twitter.

www.crownweather.com

Been reading Rob more years than I want to admit to ;)

He shows the possible GOM Homegrown Threat below.

These are his thoughts.

I'm not yet convinced this would happen.

But there has been so much rain across Florida.

It's possible it could hook up with a front.

Will it get a name? 

Or is it just rain?

It's something I'm watching.

I really don't want to speculate on random models.

Occasionally the GFS shows something possible.

The Euro shows slow change.

Otherwise we have one hurricane anniversary...

....after another.

I'll update tomorrow.

Til then shop....

...enjoy what's left of summer.

Lot's of good end of summer sales.

How long til cooler weather?

Viable fronts?

Currently we have fronts....

...and then they stall out.

And that my friend is potential.

Because home grown trouble happens.

Stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps.... sometimes it's hard to say something.

Watching the models for the tropics this time of year.

Is like watching a Taylor Swift music video.

You have to know the backstory...

You need to calm down ... 

....because oh oh you need to just stop.

And things will happen.

Don't say I didn't warn ya...

Everyone is writing silly articles...

... someone wrote about 9 hurricanes hitting E Coast

Oh my gosh...you need to calm down.

Can you just not... 

Click Bait is poison.

Kind of like Roach Motels ;)

Apparently you need a guide to get her videos.

Kind of like listening to model discussion.

Hurricane History. Long Read. Watch the Videos.. Listen to the WIND... Hurricanes & The Florida Keys. Often What Happens in Florida Doesn't Stay in Florida ... It Ends up In NC NJ NY NE...

Can you name that Hurricane?

There really is nothing new under the sun and that is especially true when we are discussing weather in the tropics. In truth tropical storms as well as the Big Daddy of tropical systems the Hurricane do visit far away beaches in New England and on Long Island but what starts in the tropics doesn't always stay in the tropics. And whatever has happened in the past will repeat itself in the future with some minor variation so if you don't learn from history you really are doomed to have your little island paradise blown away by the next Major Hurricane. 

Now days we track online and follow the hurricanes on our Smart Phones yet as much as we have changed the way we follow hurricanes with incredible satellite imagery and models that get better at nailing down the track the hurricane remains the same. Rain, wind, squalls moving in tandem in a storm that is spinning like a top traveling across an ocean looking for a place to make landfall. Sometimes a weak tropical wave battling wind shear and dry SAL manages to pull itself together just enough to attain named status while the NHC debates downgrading it to depression status. A few days later it pulls together once past the SAL and the wind shear and develops rapidly changing direction suddenly and taking aim at South Florida and the Miami area from the East. The picture above is from a book that talked on the Great Labor Day Hurricane yet it could just as easily have been talking about Hurricane Andrew. 

Above was 1935

Below was 1960

Hurricane Donna made landfall in Marathon in the Florida Keys before going on to hit multiple cities in her long race to victory that ended up with people in New York getting hit by the same hurricane that made landfall in the Florida Keys. Before the Florida Keys it threatened the islands and flirted with Cuba, but for this blog's purpose we are focusing on the Florida Keys. In 1935 the Labor Day Hurricane made landfall close to Donna's landfall point but a bit further to the North around Long Key. Hurricane Betsy in 1965 made landfall in the Upper Keys though if you check it out online you may read it hit Louisiana. The point here is that history is often local from the perspective of the person viewing the history. I typed "Hurricane Donna Florida Keys" into the browser and hit images and multiple images appeared including one of a lady standing in what looks like her winter coat on the high steps of her front porch and I thought "no that's wrong" as Google found "Hurricane Donna" but Hurricane Donna was also New York's hurricane to remember. 

In Miami people worried on Hurricane Betsy and they prepared the same way we do now days even though that was a half a century ago. Yes, our satellite imagery is better and we have models that though they argue often give us a better handle on changing steering currents. We sample the air around the storm and well I'd like to think if we had the tools in 1965 that we have now we would have been able to forecast Betsy's loops. Then again maybe not as hurricanes by their very nature are erratic and difficult to pin down. That is why people spend lifetimes studying Atlantic Hurricanes as if they are looking for lost treasure or the Holy Grail. The real Holy Grail is Intensity Forecasting, the kind that would predict Hurricane Aletta's sudden intensification to Category 4 from seemingly out of nowhere. 

Before Hurricane Irma ever took aim on the Florida Keys after flirting with the Cuban coast history books are filled with the same scenario with regard to multiple hurricanes that did the same thing. Yes, each is different in some way but the track of a hurricane moving slowly blocked to it's North by a strong Bermuda High slowing down as it approaches and waiting patiently for the Bermuda High to give it's a pass and move a bit to the East so that like the old "Open Sesame" story the Hurricane suddenly lifts NW or WNW towards the Florida Keys.  Back then we didn't have the models we have now and yet even today the same drama holds tight as we hear the models show Hurricane Irma will make landfall near Miami and then Homestead and then the Florida Keys and only in the rear view mirror to we learn there is a place named Cudjoe Key. But to people on Big Pine Key it hit their key and others will look back and say it hit the "Lower Keys" and someone in Key West who lost their roof when part of an old banyan tree fell onto it will tell their grandchildren about the time Hurricane Irma hit Key West. In the part of the Florida Keys where people are trying to put their lives back together while filling out miles of forms they would probably ask Hurricane who when hearing someone ask on Hurricane Georges. Irma is still the Hurricane of the Hour in the Florida Keys.

Cyclone Jim above in Georges.

Hurricane Irma below.

We have changed the way we track and the way we forecast even at times forecasting development before the first bands of a storm begin to come together. Our models hit the mark sometimes and other times an old time forecaster who knows climo and hurricane history does a better job than the models. Sometimes the models are wonderful, sometimes they are crappy but the one commonality is the Hurricane brings the possibility of death and destruction with it as it moves towards landfall. And, a long tracking Hurricane such as Donna makes landfall many times and takes the trouble from the tropics all the way up the Mid Atlantic into NY and beyond. Let's hope this year is not a Sandy sort of year as there are already many parallels to 2012 weather wise. Again it's hard to remember that far back but Hurricane Sandy slammed into Cuba and from their perspective it was their storm not New York and New Jersey's storm.  You don't need to speak Spanish to understand the story shown below in the video after Hurricane Sandy hit Cuba showing people up in NY a preview of what they were to expect. 

Back to the Florida Keys..

In my mind Hurricane Donna and Hurricane Betsy were Miami hurricanes yet they just grazed by Miami toppling tall pines trees and depositing sand all over Collins Avenue or smashing out plate glass windows in resorts that once had beautiful ocean views. But what I do remember most is that Hurricane Donna was a slow mover that rattled Miami's nerves as the end game seemed as uncertain as did Hurricane Irma's end game. It's nice to say that the NHC nailed the forecast with Hurricane Irma but did they really? Yes and no is the answer as they nailed it would impact South Florida but the "Cone" got pulled back and forth by several hundred miles before we knew 100% who was getting the eye of Irma. And, trust me the EYE is the part that makes the difference as most of South Florida, West Florida and North Florida had impacts from Irma but no where was it as deadly and destructive as Cudjoe Key and Big Pine. And, by the way Big Pine Key is way bigger and more densely populated than Long Key where the 1935 Hurricane made landfall on what was basically a tent city where temporary workers were given jobs by FDR after camping out in DC begging for jobs. So, yeah score one for FDR he gave them jobs in Paradise but Paradise can turn really ugly when a hurricane or a volcano blows it's top. I'd still rather deal directly with a Major Hurricane than a Volcano and a lava flow crunching down and obliterating my house and red, shiny mustang convertible.

The book I read yesterday that I picked up in one of the Florida Key's best book stores was riveting in it's old school description of the approach of a hurricane as it was jam packed with great detail on Florida Keys history. Jam packed as in old history as in does anyone in Florida even remember buying Sea Grape Jam? Does anyone remember what Bud and Mary's looked like back when? Does anyone remember when the Keys were quiet and traffic on the Overseas Highway wasn't the way it is now? Sea Grape Jam or Jelly is what Scuppernong Jam is to people in North Carolina. It's a local delicacy you take back to the relatives who live Up North. May I suggest next time you decide to go to the Islamorada Fish House or any Fish Restaurant down in the Keys you stop at Hooked on Books Mile Marker 81.9 and browse the racks and sit a spell and look through the books and decide which one you want to buy. Spoiler Alert you will want to buy MANY of them but many are on the Used racks for half price or even a dollar. I picked up a signed autograph book by James W. Hall who was my Literature Professor at FIU teaching classes on a Graduate Level on American Literature. Once upon the time before AOL and the Internet my grammar was way better ;)

http://www.hookedonbooksfloridakeys.com

There are some interesting stories in the book.

Take Craig Key for instance.

Craig Key was a town on a highway.

The Overseas Highway

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Craig_Key

It's a small spot on the map.

It's shown below by the red dot.

Up close it's shown below.

No matter how good our models are and how great our forecast is the one thing you can count on is that a hurricane, especially a Major Hurricane, slams into a small island with the fury of Atomic Bombs, and the slamming into it goes on for however long it takes for the hurricane to move on. Sometimes a hurricane slows down and crawls and other times it moves fast like Hurricane Andrew. Either way it leaves behind a trail of broken dreams, destroyed homes, destroyed lives and sometimes a high death toll. Whether the hurricane causes flooding as we saw in Houston or it sand blasts an island the way Maria did, it's a natural disaster that we try to forecast and explain to the public beseeching people to follow evacuation orders and we hope for the best, pray like we never prayed and try somehow to make it through the night while listening to the howling of the wind. We hunker down and in that dark, scary, vitally alive night no one really cares whether the EURO was right or the GFS scored a quirky win. Maybe far away in some academic environment students are debating the models still from the safety of their dorm room in another part of the country and on message boards somewhere someone will try and defend the GFS or tout how good the EURO was with this hurricane vs the last one. But trust me in the dark of the night listening to the wind you pray to survive and pray you have a business to go to work to in the morning; no one gives a rat's ass about which model was right or wrong in the middle of a Major Hurricane.

Turn your speaker up all the way.

Imagine that sound for 2 or 3 hours.

Imagine that sound while the house is shaking.

Imagine that house while worrying there is flooding.

Just imagine.

Our models are better.

Our satellites are clearer.

Radar is better.

But....

A hurricane is still a hurricane in the end.

We slice and dice them.

We study them.

It's academic to some of us... 

..a passion for chasers.

We take the data.

We study the data.

But the Hurricanes still howl in the night.

From far away they are beautiful.

Our new tools are awesome.

Whether the Euro was right.

Whether the EURO was wrong.

The end result is the same.

Destruction and death.

So during these quiet days of June when the EPAC is busy and the Atlantic is not it's a good time to think on what you will need to get through the 2018 Hurricane Season. Yes, there is talk of El Nino and there is talk of cool water near Africa. We have to worry on those storms that weakly make their way across the Atlantic battling shear and dry air who sometimes find a spot close in to become a Category 4 or Category 5 Hurricane. And, in a year like this it's important to remember over and over what starts in the tropics doesn't always stay in the tropics and the Mid Atlantic and the East Coast could be in trouble come September or October. We have come a long way from old black and white news reels with eerie science fiction sound effects but whether we watch old black and white news reels or color video the wind howls, the rain falls down endlessly as sheets of wind carry your neighbors roof one tile at a time down the street. 

There are some great books out there on hurricanes, some wild websites and some awesome old news papers online. Read through them, look at the pictures and remember in the end it's not about the models but about the hurricane. If the NHC puts up watches and warnings for your area do what they tell you to do like your life depends on it. Trust me ...your life does depend on it.

https://www.floridamemory.com/blog/tag/hurricanes/

Good sites to follow are:

www.spaghettimodels.com

www.hurricanecity.com

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/news/historical-hurricanes/ Picture below from this site.

That's a lot of landfalling hurricanes along the East Coast.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Some incredible books at that bookstore. Call them, order a few .... look online. Learn from the past because the past always repeats in some ways every day, every year ... every Hurricane Season.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2018/06/tropics-sunday-gfs-hot-euro-not-or.html a good shorter read that may make you think on your priorities.

UPDATED 10 PM IRMA LANDFALL ..Right Sided IRMA. West side Drier ... Cone Doesn't Tell the Story....MARCO ISLAND, EVERGLADES CITY .. NAPLES ... MOVING N TMOBILE DOWN IN WEST BROWARD..LOOK WHERE IT MADE LANDFALL..Just W of Hurricane Donna.. Same Day in 1960.. Moving NORTH...NORTH not NNW.. Made the turn sooner rather than later.. New cone at 5 PM or 11 PM?

Dry side on the West.

Strongest weather to the EAST

Right sided Irma now.

So let me explain something. For now let's trash the cone. IRMA made landfall... the high in the GOM that is pushing down on her left side is drying out the storm. Dry LEFT SIDE... Tampa not gonna get much... exciting but not the big landfall everyone feared. To the N and NE far in advance of Irma the energy transferred to the frontal boundary that was there and it is raining from Irma up through but not to be limited to Jax, St. Augustine, Melbourne, SSI GA... Savannah and into Charleston. To the NW where their CONE shows Irma moving is DRY AIR. Eventually remnants of the circulation will move towards Atlanta but it's not gonna be what NE FL is getting now while IRMA is over the central part of the state. 

In motion.

Another view

The cone is great most of the time.

But at this point it's misleading.

It leads ppl in SC down the wrong road.

Ppl say going to Tennessee.

And it may in some way.

Atlanta will get some.

BUT NOW... 

Wxr moving NE fast.

FAR AWAY FROM IRMA

More like an extratropical storm now.

Odd but true

And look at Jose.

It's a problem.

DO NOT LOOK AT THE CONE NOW

Watch IRMA.

Hasn't hit Tampa yet..

Yet weather East of Jax.

Will update at 11 PM.

Keep reading please.

Tired, annoyed and thankful.

Thankful it hit Cuba.

Thankful Miami didn't get a Cat 5.

Very upset about Marco Island.

Tomorrow video from Keys will be tragic.

Saying this short and getting off. The coverage from Harvey was NOT Hurricane Damage but flooding associated with Harvey. To cover the sexy city of Houston... famous in movies and TV shows they covered the immense flooding in the Bayou City... but the HURRICANE DAMAGE was down in Rockport Texas totally ignored.  Katrina ...same thing. Media totally ignored Waveland that was trashed and showed the levee failure. Yes.. it was news, it was tragic and compelling. Tomorrow when you wake up and see video from Lower Florida Keys, Key West, Miami, Marco Island you will see HURRICANE DAMAGE. All the damage from Hurricane and storm surge. You will see what a Major Hurricane can do at landfall and there may be more hurricanes to come this year. I would not be surprised to see another Major Hurricane. In fact I'll be surprised if we don't have one. Speaking of hurricanes ....Oh ......look at Jose...and one of the best looking waves I've seen in a long time coming off of Africa. The Hurricane Season is not over. If you live in a part of the country that still have power and has not been hit. Go shopping and buy LOTS of batteries and flash lights and battery operated radios and crayons for the kids. Trust me..

Jose in the Bahamas?

New Wave off of Africa.

Not off yet.

So a little tired of hearing how the storm is moving along the cone yadi yadi however you say that. Watch the storm.

Iconic Building in Miami.

Brickell.

That moment u realize ..

..u missed the Panthers Game.

They won.. I missed it.

Went out for a bit.

Dinner and a drink.

With the Miami kids up here.

While talking to the other kids online.

Been exhausting day.

Very guazy cloud cover.

Bit breezy. 

Cool.

As I said earlier.

Storm merged with the front.

Energy spread out.

Far from the eye ....

... strong weather.

From Miami to St. Augustine.

While the eye was near Naples.

Just such a big circulation

You can't make out the State of Florida.

The water is going to come back fast.

Not much to say and been drinking white wine so don't want to go long and whine about how stupid this all is and how annoying it's been listening for days to young meteorologists some of which have NEVER BEEN IN HURRICANES explain models and tracks and which model wins this one. They don't get it. Unless you have been in one or far from one you are clueless it's NOT ACADEMIC. It's not a video game it is REAL at ground level. SPOILER ALERT small places exist in America so hurricanes don't just hit Miami or Tampa or NY or Houston but small towns. Katrina did NOT hit New Orleans it slammed WAVELAND MS... Naples is getting slammed. But people across the whole state are getting slammed with rain, flooding, tornadoes and high gusts that are way above the sustained winds they were forecast. No one gets that... you get sustained winds of 65 MPH but you get a band come through with gusts ... long gusts of 100 MPH.  Sustained winds in Naples of 95 MPH at the airport currently. The eye  ... or decayed center may go up NW into Georgia and Tennessee but the WEATHER is feeding into what was the front and it's moving NE .. look at weather East of Daytona. And that will continue up the coast into Georgia, Sea Islands, SC ... inland GA SC will be a LONG TIME before Floridians can drive home as debris will be across the highways and much will need to be cleaned up BEFORE the world's longest traffic jam will occur in a week or so. 

I'll give you a five day cone for when Floridians will be allowed to begin to drive home across North Florida... Georgia... South Carolina... good luck.

Look at the REDS by the Cape.

IRMA.

IN ALL HER GLORY

EXTREME WEATHER FAR TO NE

SW

NOT just about the EYE

Model madness

if you really think a hurricane

is along a LINE.

Across the whole state now.

Landfall Marco Island

As I said here earlier.

Be clear.

Small homes.

Mansions.

All built to be ON WATERFRONT LOTS

Again posting this.

This is where Irma made landfall.

Just cruel. Really cruel storm.

Will see how this worked out.

 Image from Miami.
Under water from FRINGE of a Hurricane.
Imagine if this was DIRECT HIT.

Dismal Key.

Good name for landfall maybe.

In a matter of minutes water rising 
Naples Marco Island
LIFE THREATENING
FROM NHC NWS
10 to 15 FT above ground level.



Coming in between Naples and Everglades City.

http://wsvn.com/on-air-live-stream/
Miami NEWS live



2 PM...




Wobbling wildly
NWS KEY WEST
FLOODING AND TIDAL SURGE INFO

2:30 PM
Updates
Pictures thoughts.

Area below Marco Island.
Built so everyone has a waterfront lot.
Neil Frank said it was dangerous.
Some day a hurricane will hit.

Neil Frank knew Hurricanes

Another view below...

Low lying homes. 

Going to take a beating.

A comment from someone I respect.

Thanks.

As I said N movement.

Energizes front.

Jet venting.

Taking E side of the NHC Cone.

Note where the weather goes.

NOT the cone.

The weather.

N up to GA SC NC

Tired of hearing models

Watch IRMA at this point.

Watch the atmosphere on WV Loop.

Watch the dry line.

Irma one with the front.

Taking over.

May turn NNW

But it's going N now.

Note below Raleigh NWS

They do THEIR weather.

I say it ALL the time.

YOUR NWS has YOUR back.

NHC is great...

Follow NWS in your city.

They are on Facebook.

They are on Twitter.

I know .. no cat pics.

BUT THEY HAVE YOUR BACK

Note wide view.

Front. Irma. Jose.

Maybe Lee.

Close up.

Moving N... Irma not.

Irma thinks:

"Fine I'll go to NC u take FL"

Models.

Again taking right side for now.

Note devil in details.

I googled Naples to Everglades City.

I didn't mean Naples Italy

(embarrassing)

That's better.

IRMA moving N..

Everglades City

Naples.

Maybe just right of Naples.

Marco Island.

All in immediate path.

Then we worry on Tampa

And Orlando .. Ocala

Miami River :(

FRINGE EFFECT

NOT A DIRECT HIT

Can you imagine if Irma hit here?

Yeah... think on that a bit.

Why history repeats.

Nothing new under the sun..

or under clouds in September

Friends sidewalk on Miami Beach.

Trees going down..

Irma taking right side of NHC cone NOW

View from friends house in Miami Beach.

 I'll update at 2 PM

Be clear damage in Miami is the luck or the unlock of the draw. If your house was well maintained the ceiling roof may be good. If not... or if something hit it in a large gust... bad. I have friends with water leaking, sheds blowing down the street and massive ficus trees (think Tarzan) lying on their homes in Miami Dade County. If a tornado hit your block or a cell moving fast with rotation you may be in worse shape than a mile away. And this is far from over. A strong band in Irma's tail will set up and train rain over Miami for a day or two. Trust me on this unless they get really lucky. Models show that now. Understand Marco Island may FINALLY be tested and the whole area from Naples to Tampa may be as well. It could go E of there and come in further South closer to Everglades City.. a city on the edge of the Everglades. Miami is mostly without power, TMOBILE down in areas so... oh and cranes did fall over as predicted.

Lastly for the next hurricane PLEASE by HUGE packs of batteries. You spend more on Starbucks in a week........buy them. Store them. We are not even at peak of 2017 Hurricane Season. I've had ppl tell me they had batteries but didn't buy a lot and radio not working. Why not? It's the cheapest most important thing you can buy. I guess it's hard to remember how battery operated radios eat energy. 

Shop accordingly for the rest of the season. Update after 2 PM

Please read carefully.

Cone below.

My thoughts as well at bottom.

Takes the right side of the cone in short term.

It's going N now at 9 MPH.

This is not rocket science.

You don't need the EURO or GFS to see that.

WV LOOP

Irma at the base of the front.

That was stalled out.

Irma will energize that front.

Weather will move up N NNE NE 

They evacuated parts of GA for a reason.

Savannah - Tybee Island

Close up

This is ME not the NHC

I said last night lower keys.

I said when I woke up Cudjoe.

I'm telling you....

Irma is moving N..

From N it curves along N side of Trof.

It could go over the Lake.

Naples and Tampa will get some.

How much?

 Orlando gets what?

Naples could get the eye.

But could come in S of Naples.

Does it bend NNE or stay N

Who gets the eye?

Moves over warm water the whole way.

Florida Bay.

Everglades.

Can intensify..or stay the same.

I'm not saying Atlanta won't have a mess.

Stop focusing on metro areas.

This is a ground level drama.

Fluid in real time.

Water over Florida Bay..

..too hot to swim in for ppl from up north.

WARM HOT

FUEL for IRMA

It's not weakening.

As it goes over the Everglades.

Intensifies.

Brown ocean or water effect.

History repeats.

Always in some small different way.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2017/09/5pm-185-mph-cat-5-irma-followed-by-jose.html

I wrote this DAYS ago.

This is why I show analog storms.

Same Day.

Same place... just to the West.

1960 Donna

2017 Irma

Small islands on SW coast.

Thousand Islands...

Getting slammed.

Big Pine Key.

Note where the hoes are..

...at ground level.

I have friends who live there.

They are not there now but they live there.

Landfall in the Florida Keys; so many small Keys that the eye went over, places I love dearly. So hard to write and think and speaking to kids back home as well as kids who are far from home and everyone watching Irma. Understand these are some of the lowest keys and part of the Overseas Highway in some areas are FILL built through mangroves to connect Marathon with Key West. Marathon is a big Key think grocery stories like Publix and Kmart but small keys like Cudjoe and Big Coppit are not really that big. And the parts of the Overseas Highway that traverse that area are fill...and water has been over them now for hours as Irma moved slowly and parts of those road beds may need to be repaired before any traffic can roll down to Key West.

In the old days before the bridge was there they used ferries to get from the bigger keys to the next bigger keys. Then they put down fill and built a road bed (AFTER THE TRAIN was blown out to sea in 1935) and so now we have a highway. Views from that beautiful road are shown below. Note some houses are built high up, others low to the ground and those low to the ground will be at the least inundated or carried out to sea.

Going South...

See the homes at sea level?

Close up..

Look carefully at this street.

See the house built up high?

Now look at the house on the ground.

That house may be out to sea.

Or destroyed.

This is the story you are NOT seeing online.

I don't want to hear now about Tampa or Naples.

Hunker down. 

Be warned the storm may come to you.

 I believe its taking the RIGHT side of cone.

It's going N now.

This is not rocket science.

Stay tuned updating in real time.

Talking to friends on Miami Beach.

Trees down .. power out.

My kids have power but Tmobile went down.

Note to ppl here.

In the future..

Buy a burner Virgin Mobile Phone.

Activate it before the storm.

That way you have an extra phone service.

Hurricane Donna.

Same day. Same basic landfall.

Drop to the West.. 

That's why we study history.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Donna

Besos BobbbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter