Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, August 18, 2017

2PM UPDATE! TS HARVEY DOING THE ISLANDS & CARIB BUT THEN WHAT? Does Texas Have to Watch It Carefully? Maybe Yes... 92L aka ? Irma ? TD? Heads to Florida But the ULL & Shear is Waiting For It. African Wave (93L) Wants to be a Cyclone.

Quick 2 PM Update.
Nothing really new in short term w Harvey.
Some questions on down the road.
As I said earlier this morning .. 

Intensity for one as seen below.
Does it strengthen or not in 72 hours?
2 PM Discussion same as 8 AM.

Long term track the cone widens..

Harvey has caused flooding in Barbados.
St. Peter specifically...

Some good discussion from Crown Weather below.

Texas needs to pay attention as there has been some discussion that the ULL that is forecast to shear 92L (with a name or not) and save South Florida from a hit... could put some pull onto Harvey (especially if it strengthens) so watch the intensity in real time. Intensity is important always, but hard to predict, as it clearly has an impact on track in the long term. Short term.. stays low in the Caribbean, however long term is up for grabs it seems. Remember I say often that aside from enhancing and shearing ... Upper Level Lows can often be factors in steering storms as well. It may hurt 92L yet it may help steer Harvey. Stay tuned..

As for 92L below, while it looks great on some satellite imagery, there is a question on whether there is a mid level center or a low level center forming. Currently it's a sheared wave being "investigated" for future development. It has 60% chances of forming over the next 5 Days and that includes tonight or tomorrow.

You know that poem..
2 roads diverged in a yellow wood?
In this case its orange tracks that diverge.

The problem may come down the line.
A fork in the road if 92L survives.
Time to talk on that later.

Watch that ULL digging down...
...reaching out... 

latest_wv_loop.gif (535×440)

1 ULL erasing the tropical wave near Bahamas.
2nd ULL making the move on 92L

Good discussion to remember below.
Great App ... good people.

Keep reading if you haven't.
I'll update later if things change.

Sunrise shows Harvey moving into the Islands.
To the NE of it is 92L maybe TD or Irma one day..
...far to the East is what should be 93L

 The tropics at 11 AM.
Harvey .. 92L Red.
Orange far off in the Atlantic.

Random thoughts this morning or more so a collage of images. I'll give a full update later today so check back later for that please. Waiting on NHC to upgrade #92L possibly and I'd like to see the next model runs before saying to much about where Harvey will eventually end up and how weak 92L will get and whether it will survive what is called PV Streamers forecast to develop and help destroy Irma's chances of taking on South Florida. Irma is the next name up, if 92L does get the name as expected, and again only time will tell right now.  It's important when looking at the tropics to take in various views as no one satellite image or loop tells the whole story.

The Water Vapor shoes the back story.
It explains why the IR looks the way it does.
That big circle on WV Imagery over Florida..
Upper Level Low.
Usually kills off storms.
Sometimes steers them.
Will it save South Florida from a storm?
Stay tuned.

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

You might want to Google "PV Streamers" as it's become a popular talking point online this week regarding shear. Many do not understand what people are talking about so I'm putting up a link. Usually it can kill an emerging tropical system. On rare occasions it can help with transition as it did in 1984 with Diana... not 1984 was a partial eclipse year. But usually it does just the opposite.

Also there's dry air and shear ..

The cone for Harvey remains the same.
So not saying much about it now.

Shear is currently low by Harvey helping him move West through the Caribbean. Anytime a system is in the Caribbean a good place to go is Storm Carib.

And Harvey is moving through the Caribbean as seen below.

rb-animated.gif (720×480)

Shear is forecast to develop to record heights (well okay, strong) and tear apart 92L or Irma should it be so lucky as to get that name.

92L is currently doing it's thing, consolidating, spinning and looking like a Tropical Depression this morning. Might not make it down the line but I'm all for dealing with what is today and taking it day by day in the tropics. Especially with models that have been less than stellar and over produce shear often and either spin up multiple cyclones like the Canadian does or refuse to see a cyclone that has already formed in the way the GFS has done with Harvey and others. Why is 92L so important to talk about even if it's weak? Because it's all about location and IF it survives the shear then it ends up very close to the SE coast as in Florida, the Keys, Bahamas.. etc. Also track map is up at NRL and that's a sign it's being watched more seriously even than before.

Intensity models shown below as well.
Bears watching.
I said watching vs panic or speculation.

For now Harvey is a typical Tropical storm storming it's way through the islands as I showed above in the colorful loop. But what is next down the road for Harvey. Most models take Harvey into Mexico ultimately. However the Euro finally woke up and saw Harvey and decided to take it Cindy like up towards Texas or even Louisiana. That would be problematic so let's hope the next model run does something different. Again waiting on the next model runs .. So far the NHC is back on the line playing Desperado refusing to get off the 70 MPH fence for Harvey's ultimate strength. Some models do make it a hurricane though others point out shear is increasing soon so.. maybe not.

Intensity forecasts change in real time.

And below we are forecasting sheer to form.
And be the Saving Grace for Florida.

A shield of sorts is in place to keep 92L (probably Irma) weak as it struggles to get to the Florida Straits and ultimately possibly getting into the Gulf of Mexico. A knock out blow would be needed as it does end up in a precarious place close to land... so if not trouble be in close in not far away.

Close up view of that image.

That African wave really wants to be a cyclone. Look at that poorly drawn cyclone symbol even though it's still weak.. you can see it wants to be a contender...

I'll update later today. Sometimes pictures are worth way more than words and I'll let you look at the pictures a bit and update later today.

Besos BobbiStorm
Follow me on Twitter for faster updates in real time @bobbistorm

Ps...Again Monster like shear is forecast to appear and harass anything moving towards South Florida. Time will tell. Time tells in real time and in the rear view mirror. Everything else is a forecast and has not happened yet .. just a prediction.

And for those of you aware of the ongoing drama in my life ....or the lives of my kids. Really the stuff movies have been made of..... lol the reveal party last night showed one of my kids is having a girl :) I'm smiling..

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At 8:58 PM, Anonymous Okeetee said...

Looks like more dry air off the coast of Africa! So forget about any wave forming into anything more than a thunder storm the 1st week of Sept, too!


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