Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, August 17, 2017

Tropical Storm Harvey Forms in the Atlantic.

Time of arrival is below.

Recon made the call.
TS Harvey has formed.

You can see Harvey in the middle below.
It's the storm approaching the islands.
The one behind it is 92L
The one to the NW of it is just a tropical wave.

Models are pretty clustered together.

Up close.

You can almost see a TS symbol there.. 

So Tropical Storm Harvey formed today as recon was able to close off a circulation and found the winds are of tropical storm force. No new updates were made to the watches and warnings. The big difference in the 5 PM is the track is nudged a drop to the South of the previous one. You can see this in the wind probabilities as the ones for areas in Cuba were dropped.

Remember also that Harvey is a relatively small storm. You can see this below as well as on satellite imagery.

Note discussion below regarding future strength.


Note they have for now come down on the forecast of it reaching hurricane strength, though they leave that door open down the road. The problem is the mainstay models of forecasting these days do not like Harvey and do not see what other models do see. There is so much data and so many models and most show Harvey getting stronger and yet Betty and Veronica both dislike Harvey and aren't paying enough attention to him. Out of respect for the GFS and Euro, respectively, they are staying on the conservative side regarding Harvey's future intensity. As always time will tell.

Again there is a tropical wave North of Hispaniola moving towards South Florida. It could enhance the rainfall and localized flooding threat. So if you are reading this from South Florida rather than worrying on Invest 92L pay close attention to your local weather sources for late breaking conditions that may affect you from said tropical wave that looks huge. There is an ULL near Florida to the North of the wave and it is enhancing the convection in the wave. So know it's there and check in with your local weather people.

Moving along fast to the West whereas Invest 92L behind him is pulling more to the WNW.

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Now with regard to 92L

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It is possible 92L could affect South Florida.
Currently models keep it weak.
There is a question on shear.
How strong will the shear be.

It's far away and something to watch. Note the map below Phil Ferro on Channel 7 WSVN posted earlier today on Twitter. Give or take this has been the general track for 92L, however there has been much discussion on it's strength and in fact it's very ability to make it past the shear it will face down the road. So stay tuned. Again pay attention to local weather concerning the lead tropical wave and worry on 92L later. As always you should have prepared and if you have not please do so. Patterns exist in the short term and the same pattern that is bringing you this current large wave may in fact bring more tropical trouble down the road. Next name up is Irma..

Models for 92L

Lastly there is a very strong front moving down soon and another behind it. It is very possible if 92L or the wave after that gets into our area it can be picked up by that front. Or it could be pushed across the Florida Straits into the Gulf of Mexico. Many options are on the table but it is a long time away and between now and then the models will get a better handle on the system. 

Not going to discuss the larger African wave behind these two right now as we have plenty of time to do that soon enough. Note in the Earthnull site above you can make out it's existence.

I'll update in real time as conditions warrant.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter .. I update in real time there and am always happy to discuss the tropics with others.

Ps... Regarding Barcelona... really sad, just so sad. Tragic and not all that unexpected but it's a dangerous world even in beautiful places. My son is an architecture student at FIU working on a Masters Program. He went to Barcelona this year on a trip with some fellow students prior to a program FIU had in Germany and England. I was a bit worried though excited for him. I feel like I went as I watched image after image on Snapchat. Barcelona is an incredibly beautiful city, part of the heart and soul of that historic region. I'm grateful he was not there today as he spent some of his time every day on that street where horrible things happened to others visiting there today. He told me of all the places he went in Europe, he felt the least "safe" in Barcelona. In fact he went for a Jewish Sabbath dinner to Chabad there and even having the most common name in Chabad he was questioned for 15 minutes by security guards as to what he was doing in Spain. The security was high there and in several other places as the reality of terror happening at any time there is always present. He had an incredible dinner, good memories and he spent hours walking up and down streets taking pictures of famous buildings. 

A beautiful place touched by tragedy. Pray for the people in Barcelona who were injured or lost loved ones or saw other's lives cut short. Pray for peace across the globe. Do a good deed today or give charity. Make the world a better place.

Trust me Hurricanes can bring tragedy but you can prepare for them. I say this all the time and it's true so just do it. There are things that happen that come out of the blue that you cannot prepare for as well as hurricanes.

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