Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, September 27, 2017

UPDATED ... Yellow Circle Caribbean 20% - Hurricane Maria & Cat 3 Lee.. Waiting to Go Out to Sea. Nate in the Caribbean or Off Florida? Maria's West Side Tries to Rebuild. Memories of Hurricane Sandy and 2012 .. Spinning Off the Outer Banks.

Yellow Circle
20% chances in 5 days.
Note the heavy moisture in that region.

From far away...
...very obviously bright convection.
It's been steady convection.

A look at the moisture feed.
Oozing up towards Florida.
It feeds Maria.
Distantly to the NW Lee.
Possible Nate forms here.

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I'll update with the newest model runs later today.
Worth saying this is just the first discussion.
There are many solutions.
Know it's there.
Stay informed.

I'll update with model runs.
After the EURO finishes uploading.

Note the ULL in theE GOM
As I said earlier...
where is the fly in the ointment.
ULL.. building ridge.
See circular spin..
East GOM

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Besos BobbiStorm

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One of my favorite products above.
You can take this to the bank usually.
Hurricane Maria meets the front.
A hurricane again.
Then goes out to sea with Cat 3 Lee.

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WV Loop above.
Tropical crystal ball.

Close up below.

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Left side filling in a bit.
Intense weather on the right side.
Some weather moving closer to shore..
(short term)
Overall forecast to move NNE slowly.
Then pick up speed and Lee.
Think of Maria as a Cougar..
..going after the young, well formed Lee.

Sorry this post was later than I had planned but as always there is some sort of family drama going on in my life and I'm feeling a bit under the weather. Be it allergy or an infection I may go back on the Antibiotic and start sipping tea all day again. Blue skies present again, sunshine and a light wind out there so visually it's a pretty day. My brother is getting remarried (my sister in law died) and there are arrangements for a wedding in Florida. For those of you worried it's not that fancy nor a big wedding and I have dresses to wear so let's move on to Maria and Lee.  Obviously we have been waiting for days for hurricanes to dance with each other and for Maria to make a move out to sea. 

Hurricanes are not just about the eye, I have said that thousands of time and for those who like to High Five each other because you chose the model who better called the track and if it's not a Cat 3 hitting land you don't care then this post is not for you. My blog follows tropical weather, hurricane history and my life and thoughts as it is after all my blog and I don't work for some government agency where I have to carefully word my discussion and try to show how my forecast verified. People who have followed me over the years know that I wrote where Charley was going when it was paralleling the coastline way before it made that turn in towards Port Charlotte, Florida and that is why I have followers who read my blog. Overall I make a call, sometimes I'm off and if so I own it. I said I thought Irma would hit around Marathon in the Florida Keys after debating Miami or Key West or Tampa and it made landfall in Cudjoe Key and I was about 28 miles away as the crow flies days out. I don't blow my own horn very much, it's not my style but explaining again who I am and why I write and what I do ... and that's writing about weather and hurricanes, discussing and educating on hurricane history and sharing my thoughts with meteorologists I respect immensely. I'm always learning something new and I owe it to them to keep me on top of my game trying new things not being stuck in a box.

The Kmart in Marathon is closed temporarily.
They are reminding people to donate.
So am I.

So I want to take you back a bit today.
To another hurricane that spun off of OBX.

I took that picture in 2012.
The wind at my back.
A cold wind blowing... 
Whipping up the surf.
The ocean odder than I've seen it there.
As the hurricane passed off shore.
Not stalled like Maria.
On her way North.
Hurricane Sandy.
But in the same spot.

People stood around watching.
Surfers not in the water.
That should tell you something.

Now let's compare and contrast.

That image above is SANDY 2012.
Below Maria

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A day ago Maria looked reminiscent of Sandy, however one picture does not tell the whole story. A different set up and Sandy had a ticket to New York vs out to sea with Hurricane Lee.  Same effect on the beaches at the Outer Banks and no one in the water surfing by either of them. The water pulling away from the beach, the wind slamming you around a bit, sand flying and the Sound filling up with water moving South caught up in the flow as the hurricane pulled North.

One thing I've learned over the years both studying and chasing storms is that you get a feel for them at the ocean ... even if they are merely passing by. When Floyd passed by Miami, despite a good forecast keeping it off shore hotels boarded up and the city shut down just in case it didn't follow the forecast. Some of the strongest waves I felt ever or saw were from Floyd as it was a real monster in size, scope and it had tracked a long ways. I've seen strong hurricanes that do not produce strong, intense pounding waves even though there is storm surge and high winds. Each hurricane is different and each has it's peak, it's drama and at some point most slowly they fall apart for various reasons. Each hurricane has their day in the sun, their memorable moment for the season we remember. Sandy, lurching towards Puerto Rico about to knock out it's radar and knock the island back into a time before electricity, phone service and before the Internet wiping away bridges and making clean water a thing of the past.

Note what I said about Sandy please shown below.... way before it moved North towards it's landfall and sucker punch to parts of New York that still five years later they are trying to raise up the old homes in Bayswater that got battered by Sandy to a higher elevation for the next hurricane. New York learned lessons with Sandy and they implemented them but at some point down the road NYC will be tested again. Long before the amusement park in NJ was destroyed and Sandy Point caught fire in the hurricane and the storm surge destroyed basements near the coast in parts of Brooklyn and Queens... Sandy raged by the Outer Banks. Look what I wrote before......Sandy moved on to New York.

Also Sandy trashed Cuba.
Most people forget that.

Yes Sandy meant business.
2012 Hurricane Season.
2017 Hurricane Season.
Both meant business.
2017 is NOT over.

So let's look at Spaghetti Models.
(the site not the models)

Maria is forecast to move out to sea.
Not going to NYC or Boston.
Discussion on Nate on the right.
Spectrum wants me....
I'll make that decision after the holidays.
Lee out there somewhere.
This is reflected below:

Maria is a hurricane again.
Lee a Cat 3.
(Y not they all were this September?)
Maria once a beast is not one anymore.

Again the front, Maria, Lee

Only one moving much is Lee.
But.....look close up at Maria.
More rebuilding rather than moving.
Weather edging West temporarily.
Before going out to sea.
Luckily her West side is weak.
She's looping.
Forecast to move NNE soon.

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You can see out flow from Maria...
far left above.

Maria below.

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A voice worth listening to..

Actually fog... a "marine layer"
Is what weakened Maria.
No one say THAT coming.
Part of Maria is pushing onshore.
Despite her move out to sea.
Her left side built up again today.

Some people get that.
It might be temporary.
Actually Cantore drew that this morning.
Before he took Maria out to sea...
..he showed the loop.
The edging towards the coast.
Then looping back out.
He's not a kiddie. 
He gets hurricanes.

OBX 2 days ago.

Check out this video ...
5 years ago.
Compare, contrast.

That's footage from Hurricane Sandy.
OBX 2012.
"Daylight video starts at 3:56"

It is a tale as old as time. A large hurricane moves north of 30 degrees and it begins to unravel in various ways, yet its still there spinning off the Carolina coastline. The Outer Banks were made by storms such as these who spend days battering the coast with winds and high surf. What is often most interesting is being there when the storm pulls the water out to sea as you stand on the beach watching the ocean recede. Been there and it's magical, but as Abrams said on TWC this morning it's "not sexy" but in ways she is wrong. There is something awfully compelling about standing at the beach, feeling the wind in your face, tug at your hair and buffet you and yet the water is receding, pulling away in odd ways hard to describe. Up the coast the North wind begins to pile water down the Sound and you get a sound sort of storm surge whereas at the beach the ocean is receding. Did I mention the sea foam blowing around... wild scene really.

I know you want to know what's next. Sandy hasn't even left the crime scene yet everyone wants to know who the next victim might be from the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Models continue to show a small disturbance in the force off the East Coast of Florida (maybe a tropical depression?) and it moves West under the big high that is forecast to build in and gets into the GOM. Very iffy but many models show that set up so not going to ignore it. And then models show another storm forming in about ten days time that could be a threat to South Florida. Yeah I know my family likes to make weddings during hurricane season.  Cantore put this up today on Twitter as the last of a series of 3 images showing how this plays out. The end game (all you really want I know) is on Thursday a week from tomorrow this might be where Nate is forming. October... hurricanes come out of the Caribbean going NE or NNE usually. Could a strong high left behind by a cold front be the fly in the ointment or a front be a ticket to Florida and out to sea?

Storms in the Caribbean take a while to form.
When they do they ramp up fast.
Loop below you can watch.

Convection in the Caribbean.
Maria's tail still there.
Lee far up to the top right.

I'll update later today most likely.
After I take some meds ..
..and another shower.
Maybe go for a walk.

Stay tuned...
October hasn't even begun.
Could we squeeze another named storm in?
September ends Saturday night.
Keep watching off the coast of FL.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Thanks to my friends for keeping me inspired and fresh!

If you like musicals... and I do.
Beautiful songs.
Good movie.
A tale as old as time.

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