Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, August 23, 2017

Updated... Tropical Depression Harvey forms .. Headed to Texas & Then Touring the Beach Resorts Along the Gulf Coast. IF you live there.. time to go shopping, prepare.

8 PM Update

rbtop_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

I wanted to show Wind Probs.

Note they are watching wide...
Landfall is expected in Texas.
IF your city is on this list it has a chance..
...of getting tropical storm force winds.
It goes E to Gulfport.

Looks weak still but that should change.

Note on WV loop below you can see the ULL

wv-animated.gif (720×480)

The ULL is spoken about in discussion from NHC below.

Guide to landfall times.

A few from up above.

A new wave is leaving Africa.
That is how far Harvey has traveled.
A quarter of the way around the world?
Don't underestimate it.

IF your area starts to flood do not drive.
Don't drive when you hear it's flooding.
Prepare. Sit tight.
Hunker Down. 
Stay safe.
If your area is prone to flooding..
Leave in advance, far in advance.

I'll update later in real time.
Thanks for your patience ..

Tropical Depression Harvey forms as expected. Again rain and flooding is a bigger concern over a large expanse of the coast along the Gulf of Mexico. And areas far from the center of Harvey will get inundated with heavy, torrential rains. That is important to remember when looking the cone below. 

The NHC put out this product...
...shows the forecast rainfall totals.

Why you ask?

The image of Harvey above is a nice picture but it does not show the whole story. The center of Harvey is the colored area down to the south of the other colored areas. I want you all to understand this is not a "normal" tropical system as rain, stormy weather will be it's calling card way in advance of "landfall" and after landfall the rain will continue to be a pain. The center of Harvey is forecast to make landfall and then bobble back down into the GOM where it stays over very hot water sampling various Texas beaches until it makes another landfall again further to the East. IF this plays out, and there is no reason to believe the models that for once agree are wrong, it moves the rainfall further East towards Louisiana (pumps working yet?) and Mississippi that has been plagued with localized flooding all summer. They do not need this, but we don't get to vote for where we want tropical storms to go or we would have a bunch of Fish Storms. This is NOT a Fish Storm it's red meat... beef, pork take your choice and looking for local BBQ Joints in it's path. Maybe it will put up reviews on Yelp of it's thoughts on the Gulf Coast beaches.

rb-animated.gif (720×480)

Further to the East you can see 92L. 
Still there....
...still crazy after all these weeks.

Remember please both these systems rolled off the coast of Africa a long time ago. Harvey made landfall in the Islands, causing localized flooding and then went off the wagon for a week or so. And somehow it seems to have made it's way to secret meetings with AA leaders who helped Harvey make a new start in life and the NHC gave it one last chance to do it's thing and show what it can do. Sort of a late bloomer in ways, the come back kid. And it's stalled out due to weak steering currents doing practice spins in the Gulf of Mexico. Not a good situation for places in it's path but a good set up for Ole Harvey. 92L is taking note and may form later in the week. A strong signature below where Harvey is and a weaker one to the ENE that is 92L.

That signature should tighten up over time.
My friend shows the set up I mentioned above.

Way to the North of the center is rain..
...reaching out, touching you...

Not your typical outflow...
...but shows where he is going.

Below HurricaneTracker App shows the problem.

That image above is the 2nd landfall...
...and showing what could be Irma.
Or just 92L ... a TD or TS..
Time will tell.

And as Jim says below...


Back on August 14th we were worrying about the pumps on long range discussion on fears that 91L would get into the GOM and become a problem. Most models showed it turning but there was much discussion online that it could get further west, curving up after making landfall in the Caribbean. Then we discussed 92L that was going to cross Florida and go into the GOM. We've been worrying on these pumps for weeks now, and not much has changed I'm afraid. Let's hope they do not get tested by Hurricane Harvey....

Note discussion and images below..................

The satellite picture on August 14th is below.

Where's that lead wave now?
In the Gulf of Mexico.
And OH LOOK what else is there...

NHC still piddling around with 92L
Putting out good products for Harvey.

Time to show some love for African wave ... my opinion. 
Models develop it.

Stay tuned.
I'll discuss down the road later.

My bottom line... 
IF you live anywhere from Corpus Christi to say Biloxi please pay attention to Harvey. Landfall may be along the Texas coast. Rain will spread inland, far inland some models show it moving inland as far North at I20 (NOT I10 but I20) and it is possible rain and tropical weather conditions will affect areas as far East as say Biloxi. Just pay attention. IF you live in Houston you better be reading this from on your cellphone while standing in a long line in Kroger or Trader Joe's where you went to start your hurricane shopping. I am being serious. If you think the lines are long today, wait until tomorrow. And, again most everything you need can also be bought at a Dollar Store so save some money honey and start shopping. IF you need medications or have a family member that does make sure you get that taken care of now.

Besos BobbiStorm
Ps... I mean it! 

If you have a nice little dollar store owned by some local people selling local products please shop there it's good at times like this to buy from local companies who can use the revenue and offer the product. In North Miami Beach before Wilma when the stores were crazy my best friend and I bought a whole bunch of stuff including a new mop at the nice little Haitian Dollar Store down the road... no long lines, friendly people and lots of paper products, candles, good batteries, etc. Or order from Amazon... just be aware you may have several days of messy weather and areas that flood will flood again except it will not be a small local problem but a big problem across a wide expanse of geography. It may not look like a hurricane or strong Tropical Storm but it will look better when all the tuna fish and peanut butter is sold out. 

sat_ir_enh_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,


At 3:42 PM, Anonymous Okeetee said...

The official forecast is for a 4 foot storm surge according to the “experts!” (Definition of an “expert” weather forecaster? Someone who gets FULL PAY” for being right 50% of the time!) The bad thing about this system is it’s “speed”! It’s going to slow down and forecasters are saying it may only be 2 miles per hour for days when it hits land! Locked in by 2 high pressures….one to the west of it and one to the east of it! Now…give me my FULL PAY for being 90% right!


Post a Comment

<< Home