Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

PTC3 Moves Towards GOM w HEAVY RAIN...All About the Rain!!! Everyone Gets Rain No Matter Where it Makes Landfall. Inland Flooding Problems. Cindy or PTC3 it's the Rain.... Bret Moving thru Carib.

Latest cone from NHC.
AGAIN..note the blue Tropical Storm warnings...
They are far to the East of the cone!
Do NOT look at the center of the cone.

Excellent graphic posted on Twitter shows this perfectly!

Understand places in Florida are under Flash Flood Alerts now!

The last few days here and on Twitter I have said I think this system could make landfall near the Sabine River area. The cone has come around to my point of view it seems and yet it's not really important except as trivia for hurricane history where the center comes ashore. Where the weather impacts and how much flooding or damage there can be from this lopsided messy storm IS the story and the concern. Note the visible image below that shows how right sided this storm currently is and how the moisture is moving inland far away from the direction the cone is leaning in the graphic above. It's a mental disconnect hard to convey other than to say "Do NOT stare at the cone if you live in Louisiana" and that cannot be said enough!

PTC3 takes center stage today.
In fact it takes up a good part of the GOM.
Note the long tail still over Mexico.
Eastern GOM under convection ..
One sided system.
Might wrap later today.
Might be named a Subtropical Storm.
So many IFS
For now we call it PTC3 

There are some greens near the "center"
Recon will make that call.
What is in a name anyway?
Note as much heavy rains still by the Yucatan... up in the heart of the system.
Our slice and dice the winds view is below:

Not as oblong as yesterday.
Tightening up. Still has a way to go...

So you ask why is it not currently Tropical Storm Cindy? Or you may soon ask why wasn't it upgraded to Tropical Storm Cindy? It's not in a very comfortable spot. It may look like it's parked itself on an old well worn sofa in the middle of the room doing it's thing. 

latest_wv_loop.gif (535×440)

ULL NW GOM mixing it up with PTC3

But in truth it is battling shear and stalled out steering currents that aren't making it's future easy to read. Some Creole Tea leaves might help a bit. As for me I'm sipping Nespresso and watching Jim enjoy himself by my Creole Queen. Cute. Been there at dawn it's awesome. Fragmented thought process here but going with it as I'll be updating later today with more info once the caffeine wakes me up and recon sends back more better information. 

If you have the chance to go to New Orleans I'll tell you something most people won't tell you. Either wake up for sunrise or stay up for sunrise. I took this picture before speaking as keynote speaker on the Creole Queen at a convention of Cat Adjusters at a Conference put on by Mariposa a few years back. Always fun speaking on hurricanes at 8 AM . . . much the way I write long on tropical cyclones at 8 AM online. But way better with a good cup of coffee from New Orleans but that isn't relevant to Potential Tropical Cyclone 3. Just know you are missing a lot if you go to sleep late and miss the sunrise over the Mississippi River. Nuff said on that for now...

So Jim is there because the threat for severe flooding is there. Louisiana could see up to 9 inches of rain from a system that doesn't make landfall there and currently doesn't have a name. And where that rain goes, how long it remains and how fast it falls is more important than if Cindy forms and if Cindy makes landfall at Galveston or in the Sabine River area. The potential tropical cyclone bucking for the name Cindy may float around the Gulf of Mexico for a few days outlining the coastline and waiting to be picked up and pulled North towards a city somewhere. But the rain is the big story not the exact point of landfall. And may I point out the tail of PTC3 is STILL raining on the beaches of the Yucatan. And where that rain goes after it moves inland and merges with other features may be a bigger story down the road far inland. The graphics for the cone do not show the impact the tail is still having on weather down below nor will it show areas that will receive huge rain totals far from the center of the cone when it does make landfall.

If you saw this graphic above this morning..'d think the rain over Yucatan is over.

Messy systems are huge rain producers.

Watch the loop below and see for yourself.

wv-animated.gif (720×480)

Shear exists and is keeping it from forming.
It may wrap, it's trying.
Whether it does or doesn't...
... everyone gets weather from it!'

No matter where the center goes..
..the moisture may fall far from the center.
Note moisture bands below.

avn_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

I'll update later today on PTC3 aka Cindy maybe...

From far away you can see this in perspective.

Taking the world apart this morning in parts.
Below you can see Bret and a new wave off of Africa.

Bret has shown it's strength in the islands.

This is the site we go to for reports directly from the Carib.

Always a good read.
I posted this earlier this week a few times.

Reports are beginning to come in... 

What are the chances a 2nd Bret hits the same area?
1993 Bret in August and 2017 Bret in June.

Where does Bret go next if Bret survives?

Some people do believe it may survive.
It is not forecast to survive.
But we have seem remnants come back to life before.
Or continue West weakly towards another landfall.
Stay tuned.
I'm just showing the models I didn't make them up!

rgb_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

Bret currently moving WNW through the Caribbean.
Affecting land as it skims the coast of South America.
Affecting the ABC islands as I said it would yesterday.

Official track is above.
That will be updated at 11 AM.
I'll update later today with damage reports from Bret.
And any new model forecasts regarding both systems.

Today is the day for PTC3 to show us what it's got!
And as for Bret, how long will Bret survive?
So many questions.

The big problem is the rain.
Inland flooding.
Low lying coastal flooding.

Look at the purple far inland.
Those are areas that are prone to terrible inland flooding.
Do not focus on the actual cone.
It may track NW and then it snaps back to NE
Then it's moisture feeds far inland.

Besos BobbiStorm
Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm


Some great links if you ever get to Nola ;)
It's one of American's most beautiful cities.

Best place for great beigets and good service.

Go stare at the lines at the French Market.
Take selfies and then go to Cafe Beignet.
Trust me... I trusted someone.
So nice.

Then wander around the French Quarter.
Have dinner at any of the awesome restaurants!
Antoines is the best!

And as always keep your eyes on the tropics.

New tropical wave rolling off of Africa......

Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,


Post a Comment

<< Home