Tropics Today AND How Do We Repair the Saffir - Simpson Scale to Make It Convey Dangers of a Hurricane Better? It's Not All About WIND... People Die from INLAND FLOODING Not Just Storm Surge and Tornadoes In Bands... Even AFTER A Hurricane Is NO Longer MAJOR or "Just a Tropical Storm"

Note the tropics are not dead...

...because Florence is gone.

High chances for another high latitude system.

Subtropical or Tropical?

We've been here before.

Down in the Caribbean watching 97L

Been watching it for a while.

There is an area that could develop.

It has low chances.

It needs to be watched until it's dead, dead and deader.

There are silent runner waves ...

Getting past the SAL.

A ULL that could work it's way down to the surface.

Convection in the Caribbean.

I'll discuss that more tomorrow.

Today the big storm in the tropics is...

The discussion on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

The way we define hurricanes.

Cat 1 vs Major Cat 4.

Everyone is talking.

Everyone has an opinion.

The debate goes on.

Will change happen?

Or do we wait for the next Cat 1 where 38 people die.

And the dollar amount can't even be put...

...onto the damage yet?

Some voices from people I respect very much.

Note also what Rob said.

This is true... we discussed this on Twitter.

He wanted people to keep their guard up.

He is a paid service...

... he is paid for what he does.

Tho he tweets information to all.

Did the NHC going by the basic scale?

Let the ball drop in ways in conveying the danger?

They work by rules. 

They are the Government not a Private service.

They have rules and ways of doing things.

They show a cone to show where the eye is moving.

That comes up short often with Tropical Storms...

..or Category 1 Hurricanes winding down in strength

Do we find a way to fix the Saffir-Simpson Scale?

Improve it or lose it?

Make a new scale?

There have always been wind speed scales.

But a hurricane is more than just "WIND"

An incredibly useful tool to tell you how strong the wind is blowing was devised in 1811 known as the Beaufort Wind Scale. Try it sometime in a summer storm or a tropical depression... on any very windy day you can really tell how strong the wind is blowing with this scale shown below.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beaufort_scale

Mike has this graphic all the way at the bottom left.

Good to move around his page.

So much there.

www.spaghettimodels.com

Amazingly this scale really works.

Print it out.

You can keep it with you in case power goes out...

And you can really tell general wind speed by it.

It's a great rule of thumb.

Unless you live in some odd wind tunnel area.

Trust me this scale is as good as gold.

But hard to convey to the general public.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale

In 1971 the Saffir - Simpson Scale was came along.

It is very easy to convey.

Breaks hurricanes into 5 categories.

Seems logical doesn't it?

From Google:

The truth is they both are good. The Saffir-Simpson Scale is a general way of judging a hurricane in a media based world where they want a headline and the NHC wants to convey the strength of a hurricane and though it isn't officially said ... the idea was to show how dangerous a hurricane is vs ordinary. Obviously no hurricane is ordinary and all have dangers but it's inherently understood a Major Hurricane (Category 3 to Category 5) is a deadly, dangerous hurricane.

I wrote extensively on my blog on my belief that we need to change the way we convey the dangers of hurricanes and the NHC needs to update it's cone to show dangerous weather not just the track of the "center" where the winds are highest in the eye. It gives a poor understanding to the public who figures the worst dangers must be in the "center" that the NHC is tracking and as areas not in the center (parts of NC that were FLOODED) they feel as the intensity of the winds go down their dangers also go down and therefore don't evacuate or drive back to Wilmington from the safety of Raleigh as I met a few people who were doing when she was downgraded to a Category 1 and the NHC put out charts and discussion saying if she made landfall at all she would bounce back or slide SE along the coast as far South possibly as Charleston. I know they were trying to warn people as far South as Savannah they could be in danger but they gave people in North Carolina inland that the DANGER was less ....almost as if a flag had been lowered down to "only a Category 1" and sliding SE along the coast away from North Carolina the danger was less now. Yes, obviously being slammed by a Cat 4 would have been worse, but the extreme danger of flooding, tornadoes and river flooding was there even with a weak Cat 1 and yes the "center" drifted S into South Carolina. The forecast verified, but the true dangers were lost in the shuffle in my opinion.

This graphic is the last one Wundergound posted.

When it was a Tropical Depression.

Dumping HUGE amounts of water on NC.

8.04 TRILLION GALLONS OF WATER FELL ON NC.

Where is that conveyed in warnings?

Where is that conveyed by the Saffir-Simpson scale?

Again many areas outside the "cone" for the "center"

Were swamped by flooding.

Currently there is a storm of controversy over the use of the Saffir-Simpson scale that is not new but often discussed over and over after hurricanes that suddenly drop down in intensity before landfall are suddenly underestimated by the general public as "not as dangerous." This did not begin with Florence as Hurricane Sandy, a once stronger hurricane, was downgraded just prior to landfall much as Florence was as it approached the Carolina coast. Earlier in Sandy's track people in Florida were terrified it would make landfall in Miami as a Major Hurricane and for some time it looked as if it would be stronger. But the NY area rarely gets hurricanes at all so the fears were real but with every drop in wind speed people let their guards down. Then it was downgraded just before landfall as it was falling apart as it climbed in latitude as hurricanes often do and then the damage began on a historic, major level as it flooded communities, swamped subways, leveled trees and became a disaster that some areas along the coast 6 years later are just moving past. Many whole blocks were leveled, torn down and new subdivisions had to be rebuilt. Would people have left the Breezy Point area that was leveled by flood water and a fire at the height of the storm for safety if the emphasis on the dangers of Sandy were based on flooding damage and storm surge and less on wind especially in that part of the world? Maybe.

http://articles.latimes.com/2013/oct/29/nation/la-na-breezy-point-20131030

Not Cat 1 damage.

Again Hurricane Matthew.

A monster Major Hurricane in the Caribbean.

Weakens as it climbs North.

But the damage was Major.

So what is the answer?

Is the problem the scale?

Is the problem the media?

Is the problem at the NHC?

Who and what is the real problem?

Ignorance or denial?

Every area has it's own unique concerns. In Miami, except at the coast where flooding is a problem from storm surge, wind is a huge concern if people do not board up their homes and coconuts or roof shingles go flying in the wind shattering windows not boarded up and once the wind gets into a house it does obscene things. Wind tunneling through skyscrapers does it seem huge damage even when people were told their windows were hurricane proof. While only a Category 2 Hurricane, after being downgraded from Category 5 in the Caribbean, Wilma wiped out the power grid in the Miami area, smashed windows said to be "hurricane proof" and walloped the general South Florida area badly for "only a Category 2 Hurricane" as people complained for weeks waiting for power to come back. Some areas had Category 1 winds yet the whole power grid went out with substation problems and poorly maintained lines prior to the hurricane.

What is the answer?

I don't know.

The Saffir - Simpson Scale is a good one.

The old Beaufort Wind Scale is great.

I think the cone sucks personally.

Sorry... but 38 people died.

The cone did not convey the real dangers.

Again the main page at the NHC...

..should be split with other graphics perhaps?

They are trying so hard to add warnings.

Storm surge was added after Sandy...

The earliest arrival of winds was added.

But the media just shows the cone.

The media just talks about wind speed.

Category 2... WOW ... MAJOR CANE CAT 3

Downgraded to a Cat 1.

What is the answer?

Hope we figure it out.

38 people died at the last count.

Many injured severely.

People homeless from floods.

As I said in my blog before...

The flooding in Mitch was not when she was a Cat 5!

Mitch stalled as a Tropical Storm and people died.

This happens all the time.

We need to get better at warning the public.

That starts at the NHC.

The MEDIA is a huge part of the problem.

And I mean mainstream media.

People like Mike on Facebook spoke on this.

I wrote on it.

The newspapers and TV media needs to change.

Just my thoughts.

Here are some thoughts from online .

Showing this one again on purpose.

I love Spectrum Weather.

Sorry but I don't feel that threat was conveyed well.

With the cone showed below.

We need to find the answer.

Because it will save lives.

Any lives saved are worth it.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Kinston is far inland.

Not sure if it was in the cone.

Doubt it was in the cone.

But the cone went S into South Carolina.

The flood waters inland rose....

Lumberton, Kinston so many communities.

Dillion, South Carolina.

If the audio doesn't work turn it to mute.

It's currently live.

Read the comments.

Not on the coast.

But it floods.

Far from where Florence turned S and went down to South Carolina.

Far from Wilmington NC where it made landfall.

Update! 93L Does Philippe Make the Team? Tropical Discussion and How It's All About Football. Lessons Learned from Football... October Games.

2 AM

Latest models

Achieves TS strength.

But where does it go?

Options are there for NE.

IF "Philippe" forms and stays East.

It has more fuel to use.

Better chances of being stronger.

South Florida not totally out of it.

"IT" crosses Cuba.

Recon is sampling 93L's charms.

Finding definition but still "meh"

Looking better defined than this morning.

Again it's a process.

A fluid process.

I'll continue to update as information evolves.

Oh... EPAC got a storm.

Selma.

You can see these two below.

93L and Selma.

* * * 

If you haven't read..

...please do.
I had football and the tropics on my mind.

93L 60% chances at 8 AM.

Close Up Loop Below.

Invest 93L 

Odds up to 60% for development.

Models shown below.

Models consistent.

Weather in Motion.

Forecast movement of Fronts and Lows.

Sorry I didn't post earlier but I had a hard time falling asleep last night after the Miami Dolphins failed to show up for the Baltimore Ravens game when I finally had a chance to watch them "play" on National Television. I stopped paying the NFL for the chance to watch the Miami Dolphins find new ways to lose games years ago. I follow them, being a Miami girl, but Cam Newton showed more controlled passion when he quietly ended the Press Conference and walked off the stage than the Miami Dolphin team ever showed last night. Despite the Ravens losing their Quarterback to a concussion and an ear that needed to be stitched up the Dolphins still couldn't score.. not even a field goal. I woke up this morning to 23 long messages from my brother in Greece. No he wasn't giving his thoughts on Catalonia standing up and seceding from Spain, it was all about the Dolphin's loss... 

So this blog post is going to be all about football and how it relates to tropical weather. You can learn much from studying football and both seasons do overlap and are played out against an October playing field. Football is more than showing up in your team jersey and drinking beer in cold weather. I know that sounds a lot like Meteorologists in Miami after a cold front passes through finally. Mets just love Tee Shirts with their team or favorite hurricane on them. Honest. I have a lot of tee shirts....

A good quarterback on a good team knows he can hand off the ball to a running back who will take the ball where it needs to go to score or at least gain a first down.  A good quarterback with a great offensive line can hang back in the pocket as long as he wants but he needs a receiver who can get open down the field that he knows he can connect with to move the ball down the field to either get a first down or to score. It's important, obviously, not to fumble the ball and turn it over to the other team. The object of the game is not to show up and then pick up your paycheck.... the goal is the play your best and find a way to win the game. Often tropical systems in October have much in common with football. A low forms down in the Caribbean, the convection sits in the pocket waiting for the best chance it has to move North with a name and a game plan and then hand that energy off to another player known as a Cold Front. Think of the Cold Front as a really good running back that grabs the energy (ball) and runs with it all the way towards making a score. Sometimes.... the tropical system is so memorable it's jersey is retired and people talk about it for the next 40 years. Dan Marino is to South Florida what Hurricane Wilma is to October Hurricane History. Most tropical systems are not Dan Marino and most Dolphin Quarterbacks are not Dan Marino. Bob Griese (and Earl Morrall) had several players to work with to get that ball out of the pocket down field. Invest 93L is not Bob Griese, however the Cold Front is as reliable as Larry Csonka was for picking up yardage and going the distance. Invest 93L may get the name Philippe and briefly become part of the team roster but it won't make any post season play off games; Lord knows the Miami Dolphins could use someone that can run the ball.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WsLVOXH0VM4 Csonka, Kiick and Mercury Morris. Don Shula explains the value of a backfield. 

Now let's talk about the Defense. The strong high pressure and dry air to 93L's immediate North is currently inhibiting it's development. Luckily, it has a good Offensive Line that is protecting the quarterback so he is not thrown for a loss or slammed to the ground or ejected from the game with a severe concussion and needing stitches. You see when you stay in the game and you stay healthy a good QB has the time to make the big play. 93L is waiting, patiently to make his move and hook up with his best receiver. When he does .... he can take a track across Cuba or the Florida Keys or South Florida and then up into the Bahamas. Why can't I pin down the exact track just yet? Cause it's fluid (duh) and until any given play starts you are only guessing which receiver will get free and be able to catch and hang onto the ball and run towards the proper End Zone. Receivers are stretched out currently from the Florida Keys to Miami to Havana and the First Yard Line is just off the East Coast of Florida in the Bahamas. Can Invest 93L pick up valuable yardage today? That remains the question. There is one excellent long yardage threat on this team that may wait out by the Outer Banks to catch the ball (energy) and make it up towards the Goaline (New England). Time runs out when this whole team gets to the North Atlantic and yes some New York Jet Fans may leave the stadium before at the 2 minute warning and miss the exciting finish. 

Look at that playing field.

The best receiver is still up by Arkansas.

Pushing South.... 

He played on the Canadian League originally ;)

It's common for some of the better NFL players on poor teams to end up being big stars playing ArenaFootball. Speaking of Arena Football there is a system forming in the EPAC. 

Sometimes Arena football is fun..

...it gets odd sometimes

Over the last few days while 93L didn't do much and forecasters at the NHC wrote long discussions explaining it wouldn't do much for several days ... meteorologists began to disagree and even fight on Twitter. It got a bit ugly as this season has taken it's toll on many of us who have sat up late into the night or woken up at odd hours in the middle of the night trying to provide you with the best product to better understand what you may be facing while facing Category 4 and Category 5 Hurricanes. It's as if they no longer know how to just deal with a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean that is going to try and catch a front swooping across the East Coast. It got a little ugly last night on the playing field and it amazes me that the Fins could put together that much energy when they didn't show up when those last 2 scores were made in the last few minutes and any New York Jets fans in the stadium left before it jumped suddenly to 40 to ZER0.

Speaking of Shut Outs.

Many are hoping the 2017 Hurricane Season...

...is shut out soon.

As in "Game Over"

But it's not over.

Hopefully the Baltimore QB will heal fast. The Miami Dolphins can figure out that playing football is not about #strongertogether but #aboutwinning and I don't mean coming behind but putting the game away when they have the chance not having to come from behind always. Seems that part of Dan Marino's legacy is still with them.......

I'll update this blog later this afternoon when the new models are run, after 93L starts to make it's move as it is in the process this morning of pulling together. I want to wait and watch a bit and enjoy the game today... I mean "Invest" :) and one that is wise enough to wait for it's chance to pull North and not a Category 3 or 4 or 5 Hurricane bearing down on terrified people. It is worth noting that if it does affect the Florida Keys that any structures that are weak and barely holding on from Hurricane Irma may have secondary damage from tropical storm force winds. After Andrew a strong squall came through Miami and highlighted damage people thought was light but was not as trees slammed into windows that broke too easily and windows that seemed held into place fell out and roofs they thought were okay leaked as Andrew was a dry storm but the odd squall in the Fall was a wet, wild squall and showed many they didn't make it through Andrew as easily as they thought they had ... kind of like when it rains in Southern California heavy in an El Nino year after years without a heavy rain and you find out it's raining in your bedroom. Who knew the roof had a leak? 

Something you may not know about me. I'm a huge Cam Newtown fan so don't be a hater. So taking a page from his way of dealing with press conferences... and I'm outta hear!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps...Is the real center the heart or the blob to the right of the heart below? More later. Looks like a Halloween Valentine... thanks ... you know who you are. There's a Picasso face down there too... Green and brown looks like Carolina Panthers who should #keeppounding.