UPDATED 11 PM. Tropical Storm Chantal Forms in NORTH Atlantic....African Wave Train... Orange Blossom Special... Coming Soon. Models Perk Up. Show Possibilities.

Note we may have a looper.......

#Chantal is forecast to stay out over open sea as a minimal Tropical Storm: pic.twitter.com/IrvAfo50Vn

— BreakinNewz (@BreakinNewz01) August 21, 2019

Earlier tonight this happened.....

Wow, it did it... Tropical Storm #Chantal was able to develop. No threat to land. Even with it, it remains a notably quiet season so far https://t.co/lhruDEHod9

— Luke Dorris (@lukedorrisWPLG) August 21, 2019

So that decision was made.

In truth 97L looked good all afternoon.

Sometimes oddly a system can form up there...

Statement from the NHC.

I'll name a few tomorrow morning for you.

Nice little ball of convection.

Looks more tropical than Barry.

We be making progress...

Phil Ferro on air in Miami puts it well.

Very well.... nice graphics.

Everyone's a critic........

 To be honest it's barely on some of the satellites.

Hmnnn

Irony.

As nothing was happening I went out with my husband tonight to some Meetup he attends to see friends. I had a drink... some vodka, hibiscus syrup, basil, lime, agave ... a cherry and it was good; not too sweet but enough of a kick to take my mind off the hurricane season. Then we went out for sushi.... it was good sushi.... I was tired as I woke up very early and took allergy medicine figuring I'd just go to sleep and start over in the morning and then..........they announced Chantal. Earlier today I did wonder if they might upgrade 97L as it was looking good, better than ever. It was looking better than Barry but time was passing and I was falling asleep. Now I'm up, because I had to wait for the advisory package.... yup. Chantal. Next name up is Dorian. 

Night everyone... Sweet Tropical Dreams. 

Ps if you haven't read the earlier discussion please do as it's all valid. Oh GFS and EURO now show another system trying to form where TD3 and Invest 97L was first found with great tropical aspirations. A sneak peak. Let's see in the morning if the models didn't back off on that or begin to lock in on it. www.spaghettimodels.com top left side where he links to Tropical Tidbits.

Nite everyone... Nite Chantal. (pretty name)

Models.

Tropics today.

Tropical Wave stretched across the Caribbean.

North end.... SW end.

GOM has low chances.

More on that later.

But look at that consistency off of Africa.

Seriously though today is August 20th.
I know hard to believe.....

Today is the day the Hurricane Season really ramps up.

Speaking statistically from an academic point of view.

Dr. Bill Gray, who I adored, would ring a bell.

So let's see what's going on today in the tropics.

Here's a good link for shear...

It changes daily.

The more green there is....

...the more we are set to GO.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF use it daily

The rumblings of tropical formation off in the not to distant future can be heard today as models begin to consistently show formation probabilities as we dig deeper into the month of August. You know what it's like when you hear distant thunder out there somewhere above the tree line and a bit beyond the horizon and you know someone is going to get a nasty thunderstorm but you're not sure if it's going to be at your house or your cousin Sue's down the way. It's out there coming despite seeming a bit nebulous before the skies darken and the wind begins to blow.

I've always been a fan of wide loops as you can see all the players and how they interconnect and everything is always connected. Hurricanes don't exist in a perfect vacuum they form when all the ingredients are ready and in place. Steering currents are often locked in for the short term and evolve just so as things begin to change and change is inevitable. 

We have our constant friendly frontal boundary draped across the SE like an old lazy well loved, loyal dog that lays by our feet as we play online. Occasionally it barks at some passing feature that caught it's attention and then goes predictably back to sleep but rarely leaves it's place next to our feet.  We have the huge ongoing, ever occurring thunderstorm complex on that map up near St. Louis always racing like it's late for a date in Memphis on some Groundhog Day loop and we keep wondering will another Yellow X form over Tennessee again. There is the briefest suggestion down in the Caribbean of spin moving towards the tip of the Yucatan at the base of another wave that made it across the Atlantic but didn't develop because of Cousin SAL.  And far off bottom right we have another, healthier tropical wave sliding across the water slide of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone.  Oh did I mention Invest 97L lived to spin out huge model support to tell tropical tales one more day. 

Yeah that keeps happening.

10% yellow.

I like to call it... Tall Tales of the Tropical North Atlantic.

@icyclone says it his own way.

Hey he's got a real talent for creativity....

...and passion for the core of an hurricane.

A real hurricane.

Fluff doesn't excite him much.

He's in a mood.

He can hear the distant rumble coming.

The things we do while waiting for things to come to life.

And they are in different ways every day.

So let's do models for a change.

Note you can go to these two sites for good models.

www.spaghettimodels.com top left.

www.tropicaltidbits.com learn the site it's easy.

GFS model.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

There's some weird funkiness going on there but the bottom line is it does close off tropical waves finally though it doesn't hold onto them very long, but we all have to start somewhere right?

It started with this weird radioactive symbol.

See?

Okay moving on now.

There's this itsy bitsy low.

Enough for Cranky to rant long on...

Early systems are often small.

Then they grow as way bigger.

Sometimes they come off in twos.

Then they fade away and another one forms.

A real wave train begins.

While you were watching the wave train.

This sneaky low feature develops E of Florida.

And backs up into the Panhandle.

Anyone who has ever taken Amtrak's Silver Star...

....knows this happens when the train leaves the East Coast.

Then goes backward most of the way to Tampa...

...it's weird, timely but it seems to work.

Silver Meteor stays on E coast and it's fast.

The Silver Star is NOT the meteor it's slow.

Now you know.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

Moving on to the Euro.

The Euro shows waves coming off.

It daily closes them off .....

....then loses them again.

But it's a start.

On the 28th things get busier.

Lows pop up everywhere.

A low off the coast of Morocco keeps showing up oddly.

A small closed barely there low trying to move West.

Note the area is wetter now & less dry.

SAL is losing his grip.

And what's the Low off the East Coast.

Similar in ways to the GFS.

Going to remind you of something I said a while back.

I said it in the form of a joke.

But it's been as persistent as the front....

...and the MidWest frog stranglers.

I just keep seeing something odd there.

Now it's on the models.

On August 30th this model shows that.

Not that's not 97L

Could get a designation as an Invest.

Who knows ... the point is.... 

The show is about to begin.

Speaking of shows...

Congratulations to @iCyclone. His show is already in TV markets around the world, and now finally debuts in the U.S. https://t.co/8GJNwl4bxI

— John Morales (@JohnMoralesNBC6) August 15, 2019

Kind of exciting, finally here in the USA

The reason I don't like showing models this far out with no real tropical disturbance looking rough and ready is that models change on every run. The 12Z then the 18Z then we start over and do it again and lows close off and open up the way the old pooch breathes and snores at your feet every day. It is what it is ... but.....it is a sign that things are beginning to come alive.  I said that things would pop a bit in Mid August around August 15th give or take and 97L popped up and trust me with even a little bit of encouragement from Mother Nature it might have briefly gotten the name Chantal. But the real message of 97L is the same message TD3 was selling... in that we all need to watch the East Coast in the coming days. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=gom&product=ir

Great loop on Tropical Tidbits if you want to watch the Gulf of Mexico in real time.

Will the energy in the Caribbean....

...hook up close in with the frontal boundary energy?

Check back tomorrow.

What about the Gulf of Mexico you ask? Let's switch modes. While the models don't show a closed Low with a name ready to be given they do show moisture tendencies and whisper possibilities. www.windy.com is a great site to play with for this set up.

Around the 22nd to the 24th there is moisture.

I can't bring it in any more than that.

I know everyone keeps waiting and talking.

My Grandma Mary used to love her Ouija Board.

No that's not my grandma but you get the idea.

We'd hold that cup and see if it moved....

No I'll stick to Tarot and Astrology ;)

Gosh I miss my Grandma Mary.

Also she had a Southern Accent.

New Orleans Voodoo sounds better that way.

Either way heavy tropical rains are coming.

So this is my Bottom Line today.

Know things will be ramping up online.

I don't need a Ouija Board to know trouble is coming.

Take it from Da Man he knows.

Don't Fall for Click Bait.

Especially when the season ramps up...

Seriously a WARNING here.

You will see things online the next few days.

Crazy things.

Long tracks from ensemble members....

..they waltz up the East Coast....

They dance off shore.

They show GOM trouble.

They show an trouble in River City.

Take then with lots of grains of sea salt.

And know trouble be coming down the line.

I'll be back later.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Follow me there for fast up to date information.

Watching the GOM for a TD or TS Alberto Could Form in the Eastern GOM This Weekend Going Into Early Next Week. Mother's Day Weekend.

A brief update that is more foreshadowing than anything else as something may be developing over the weekend in the tropics. A combination of an Upper Level Feature and a dangling, decaying frontal boundary provide the recipe for tropical trouble this time of year as it may not be too soon to get a named storm. I'm not sure this will get a name vs designation in the way of Invest or a Tropical Depression. You can see these features above that we are watching and the models are spitting out various, similar solutions.

It's hard to see but there is a very small closed low that comes ashore on the Florida Panhandle in the model above. What is more compelling in the long run is the HUGE High off the coast of Florida that takes up much of the Atlantic. ANYTHING and EVERYTHING that forms will be propelled West towards the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico and of course Florida. For now this is the pattern and as long as we have old frontal boundaries dangling around Florida we have the potential for tropical trouble be it a wander Upper Level Low or a westbound tropical wave. The satellite is below.

Currently there is no Yellow X.

No box to watch .... 

But it's coming.

I'm pretty sure when I am done with the Jewish Sabbath Saturday Night I'll go online and find a yellow X and if not a yellow X it will be so close I'll be able to smell the yellow color on the map. Unless all the models pull back out immediately and pretend they never said nothing about something happening the set up is there for a tropical scenario. And, rain... copious amounts of rain and local flooding will happen with or without a name in Florida. My gut feeling is if this develops the rain may be quite heavy far from the actual small closed low so know wherever you are in Florida you will be dealing with rain.

And what happens in Florida....

...moves up into Georgia.

I'll be back Saturday Night.

Til then www.spaghettimodels.com

Mike has all the info you need.

Also check out his Twitter feed on that page.

Lots of great information.

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps... Have a wonderful Mother's Day Weekend!

May storms are not uncommon.

The last Alberto formed the same time period in May.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/05/19/us/tropical-weather/index.html

UPDATED SUNDAY 5PM - Jose. Maria. Lee. Triple Tropical Trouble... Odd Models, Deep Thoughts and Some Thoughts From South Florida ... Irma Recovery

Jose Cone at 5 PM

Maria 5 PM Cone.

Some Jose talk..

Discussion from NHC.

Important parts.

"meander or drift southward"

This is so typical Jose.

Impt note...

Widespread rains for Southern New England.

Long Island. NYC. NJ.

I said "RAIN"

Let me say this about Jose.

There has been much discussion.

On a Fujiwara dance with Maria.

Should that show up in the overnight  models..

ie EURO again.

I'll go into great detail.

But I'm not sold on it.

I am sold on Jose liking to loop.

Interaction between the 2 of them.

So stay tuned...

While Lee has been downgraded...

....he's still very visible.

With regard to Maria.

Small, intense hurricane.

Capable of ramping up fast.

Much discussion online.

What will Jose's winds do...

Sadly Islands going to get slammed.

Maria tracing Irma's track.

Barbuda will get nailed again.

No one living there now but...

..truly incomprehensible 

Cranky says it best.

Follow your local statements.

It's extremely important.

Go to NWS

Check your local area.

Check them again often.

http://www.weather.gov/

I do mean NWS...

Not Uncle Bob on Facebook

Discussion from this morning still valid:

Let's start with Maria.

She's a very good place to start.

Now take a look at our tropical trio.

Triple Cones for Sunday 

Problem forecasters have is a plenty.

It's like playing 3 level chess in the tropics.

Okay let's start at the beginning. The problems forecasters have currently is that there are three storms out in the Tropical Atlantic and they may at some point be interacting with each other. So now aside from the obvious array of intangibles they have to be fluid enough to figure out how each move one makes could influence the movement of the other. Not easy being a forecaster at the NHC this season as we zoom through the alphabet awaiting our next Major Hurricane. And did I mention there is one rolling of of Africa soon? Probably not but we are knee deep in indecision in the hurricane season. Yesterday the Euro, our best pitcher, through a curve ball into the mix and showed Jose and Maria doing a Fujiwara dance. The Tweet from below was 9 hours ago, but it shows where we were last night waiting for the next model run of the Euro. Predictably, it through the Fujiwara dance out, Jose edged closer to the coastline of the US. And, when I say coastline I mean those many multiple, metropolitan areas along the coast from NJ to Maine. Now everyone awaits the next Euro run. 

Hopefully the above scenario..

..is off the menu.

I'm more focused on Maria.

But many are worried on Jose.

The models pull him North.

Odd track after that....

This is out world Sunday Morning.

Jose, Maria, Lee.

''

https://www.facebook.com/larry.cosgrove

The above picture is from Larry Cosgrove.

Check him out on Facebook.

He's one of the best Mets I know.

I know a lot ...so that's huge.

Speaking of incredible meteorologists.

Jim juxtaposes his posts.

He's layers deep.

Maria is going to trace Irma's track for a bit.

It's not good news.

But I'm just being honest.

See the HWRF model.

That's just one model above.

But it's a close up so went with it.

Cone for Maria.

Updated at 11 AM and 5 PM.

Major Hurricane down the road.

There is so much uncertainty in the models when it comes down to the details. We know it's headed to Hispaniola. Will it track North or South or directly over Hispaniola? And amazingly the models don't show it falling apart after landfall. Much depends on the timing, the exact angle of approach as to how badly Hispaniola takes a hit and how much of a hit Hispaniola takes of Maria. I have the soundtrack from one of my favorite musicals West Side Story stuck in my head today. So yeah... I know that all of you in Florida want to know if Maria is coming here. It's logical to assume... that if she is retracing Irma's footsteps she has the same choreographer and after PR and Hispaniola she wants to perform in Miami but........it's too early to tell. And, if it makes you feel any better those up in the Carolinas may be worrying more than you. 

To many this is a classic Carolina track as Maria is forecast to begin to turn off the coast of Florida. I know... (hanging my head, hard to type this) you've heard that before. It's just a dance as old as time. Somethings are forever and Florida flirting with the danger of a hurricane is high up on that list and we are only at the beginning of the story. Mike below gives a good quick, overall of the situation so check him out on Facebook as well. Though most everyone reading here is on his Facebook. My kids kept telling me all day yesterday "Mike was right" on many different things... "it wasn't a very wet storm" was the main comment with some kid adding "Mike did say that" and at this point if they were kids again I'd ask Mike to tell them to clean up their room because I'm pretty sure they'd listen to him before me.. 

As for me.. I'm in paradise.

I woke up this morning to the moon...

...just before sunrise.

The oak tree that took a beating.

And the moon peeking through. 

A good set of graphics.

Shows the complexities.

Which scenario plays out.

Or does a third develop.

Good to follow on Twitter.

Great App.

http://hurrtracker.com/

The house here where my son lives came with shutters. Everyone has the same basic shutters and some of them are up currently and some have them down currently. It's a gamble some took to get sunshine into the house and watch the sunrise and set through their window over the lake. I guess we are all gamblers living in South Florida but usually we win and the hurricanes curve out to sea or and they are someone else's problem. As I said the other day how you choose to live and where you choose to live is the biggest decision you'll make in your life. 

Being my kids several went down to the Florida Keys to Marathon with their brother-in-law who seems to have taken up residence working with FEMA. They helped out, they looked around, they watched the sunset. As my 2 year old grandson was too young he and my daughter ended up in the hotel where it's safe and there is electricity (I'm guessing generator but it's safe) and they sent these pictures which say it all. This is who we are and why we live in Florida or along the coast. AGAIN... there were over 25 years between Hurricane Betsy and Hurricane Andrew. This does not happen every day. But this year it seems to be happening every day or every other day this 2017 Hurricane Season.  The links to the wind probabilities for Jose and Maria are below. Until your city is removed for more than one advisory from the wind probabilities watch the track of Jose and hope it stays out to sea. Spoiler alert places as far inland as Rocky Mt NC are on that list as is Nova Scotia... and a good part of the Atlantic Ocean.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT2+shtml/170849.shtml?

Maria  probabilities below. Bad for the Islands. Still offshore USA.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT5+shtml/170847.shtml

Battered but beautiful the sun always rises and the sun always sets and it does so with more beauty, passion and inspiration than any place I've ever been. I'm a beach girl. I love the mountains and if you want both move to Santa Barbara or somewhere along the California coast. In truth many who could moved to the Virgin Islands to live near both and this morning despite the tremendous damage the view is beautiful.  Battered but beautiful still....

I'm going to update today if anything huge changes.

I will give a complete update tonight.

I got places to go...

...people to see.

On the road in South Florida.

Hoping Maria doesn't take this road.

Enjoying my family, friends and the view.

Bye for now Bobbi...

not really saying goodbye.

Keep reading on.

The letter below is from 1926.

It's a letter from after the 1926 Miami Hurricane.

The link translates it and explains it.

https://www.floridamemory.com/exhibits/floridahighlights/hurricane/

It's a dance as old as time.

Close up loops of Jose, Maria and Lee.

And the wide view.

Keep reading...

I'll update in length tonight.

Jose.

Still spinning.

Off the SE Coast.

Maria.

Beautiful spin.

Where she goes is the question.

Lee 

Less impressive for now.

Some thoughts tonight while waiting for a late night model to run to see if this model run is more logical and has clarity vs more questions concerning the fate of Maria and Jose. Lee is still out there to so do not forget him. By the time I finish this post and publish it we will have more information. These are just random thoughts.

I'm in Walnut Creek tonight at my son's house visiting with my children and seeing my step son who just got back into the country after being overseas for the last year and on his way soon to Arizona. I've got a lot of family obligations as well as my own work I am trying to get done documenting damage and gathering some stories from people in the path of Irma. My gosh... was it just last week we were dealing with Irma? And now we have Jose still.....Lee and Maria... add in some possible interaction between 2 of them it's going to be a long week.

We stopped in Savannah on the way down and interviewed a few people who live out near the "marsh" or as some refer to it as low country near Tybee Island. The ground around her home is muddy and hard filled with the remnants of debris that the sea deposited on her door step. The ocean water came in, flooded the marsh and cut off her cottage that is normally over the marsh so that she just saw what seemed like ocean in all directions. And, then it receded leaving mud.. and memories.

Very little real damage in Savannah though several store owners insist that River Street was flooded a bit. It was a beautiful night, a steady breeze and in the back of my mind I couldn't shake the thought that the beautiful breeze was not a harbinger of good news down the road. That strong high, holding on steering well formed tropical systems this way.

Jacksonville is cleaning up. I didn't go downtown, but around other parts of town. Many people I spoke to told me they still did not have electric and some I know were staying at hotel rooms nearby hoping to clean up soon. They seemed in shock. So much talk on the landfall being in Miami or Key West or Miami or Key West no one said much about Jacksonville being set up for historic flooding. They knew there was the possibility of flooding but not that sort of flooding and more so flooding while Irma was far to the Southwest near Naples.

As you drive down the state you see blown out billboards and signs here and there that once advertised car dealerships and generally mild tree damage. And it seems difficult to understand why so many people lost power in areas with such light damage. An investigation of that needs to be done from my perspective. I spoke to many people who just "had no power" yet very little tree damage, no flooding but no power up and down the state. It's as if the grid collapsed but that doesn't seem to make sense for places very far from landfall and the track of Irma.

Once down in Broward County you begin to see real tree damage though buildings and signs are fine. The closer you get to the coast the traffic lights are out yet... near my son's house in West Broward there is a temporary stoplight on the ground with a cop trying to watch out for problems; reminded me of the months after Andrew.

My best friend's son lives here also (big surprise huh) so she spent Shabbos here this week and we spent a good part of the day together talking hurricanes (big surprise huh...) sitting out by the lake, watching the birds, ducks and iguanas scatter about doing their thing. We walked around wandering through tree debris talking how it reminded us of our lives Post Andrew. Some houses have shutters up, some have them down but life goes on. The palm trees look better off than the oak trees that crack and break in the wind and those odd ornamental trees subdivisions put in ...... go down fast before making it to even prime time. Wind funnels through the houses at the corners of the block (especially when there are lakes in between the homes) and the wind takes down whole trees whereas trees in the middle of the block stay or fall randomly with mostly branches breaking. Everyone is mostly in a good mood. Though I heard way too many people complain "Irma was nothing" and I just stare at them. I glare at them and tell myself do not argue with fools, let you become like them.

My youngest son, another son and a daughter who joined her husband (with the 2 year old) as he has has been down in the Keys with  FEMA tonight and all of them just keep repeating to me on Whatsapp  "it looks like a war zone" so apparently your attitude towards Irma depends on your location and your understanding that you got a "BRUSH" with a hurricane not THE hurricane and YES everyone lost power no matter if they had Tropical Storm force winds or Cat 1 winds. Understand, as a child growing up here no one lost power unless they had over 100 mph winds as a rule. Here and there an avocado tree takes out someone's electric but now days you can have a day of tropical storm force winds and lose electric. Density of population yes I know ... Or is it maintenance of the grid and the system. Good to know though those new poles FPL put in down in the Keys stood up to Irma  Did I mention my 2 year old grandson was in Marathon today? Still trying to process that ... Yeah he watched the sunset with his mother  while his father is working down there. Actually everyone except the son-in-law is back on the road to Miami tonight for a family birthday party. I have the greatest family, but not your normal family, but normal for our family.

So... yes life goes on. A big royal palm tree crashed into the side of a building on Hollywood Blvd taking out chunks of concrete and a decorative wrought iron balcony and people walk under it and the yellow tape to go in and out of the frozen yogurt shop. Life goes on...

In North Miami Beach it's trying to get the trees that are down off the roads that are still blocked in some areas; here they are hoping not to put up shutters again for Maria and in Marathon it's a different world and it's hard getting past Marathon to the Lower Keys right now as they are working their way down from Marathon and using the airport as a staging area it seems.

So may I remind you the hurricane season is not over. I said early in the season I wouldn't be surprised if we make it to the N storm. Now I'm wondering if we make it past Whitney. And, as I said Friday I believed it was possible for Maria to be a Major Hurricane.

Are the Carolinas on the menu next week for the Landfall Soup of the Day? Can we collectively pray that Florida is spared another landfall this year? It's been a crazy hurricane season. Always amazes me the attitudes people have... they were lucky, they were spared or they run around bitching and complaining the storm cost them money and time and blaming it for all the problems in their life when they live far from landfall and should be kissing the debris on the street thankful that all they lost was some food in the fridge, some trees and be grateful Irma did not hit South Florida with 185 mph winds. Others are very aware, not selfish or petty or shallow and happy to be out on a Saturday Night having a drink or listening to music or enjoying the tropical breeze. And, most of us know it's not over til it's over and it's not going to be over this year until after October I believe.

I'll update the rest of the day at the top when time permits. I'm on Twitter all day updating in real time so check me out there @bobbistorm on Twitter

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter