Otto? Is That You in the Caribbean? Earthquakes New Zealand & Argentina. Supermoon November 2016. Remembering Lenny. Cold in Carolinas.

That's a shot of my computer screen. Obviously.

Hate the way the NHC shows these features.

Main screen shows this image below:

I feel as if it's one of those capture the flag game.

You have to know to click on the secondary screen.

Then you have to know to hover your mouse over the circle.

It's 2016 there has to be a better way.

Perhaps a divided screen of some sort?

Luckily you can go to www.spaghettimodels.com

He puts up the screen that's important for you to see.

So the Tropics are beating Winter out today.

Therefore I'm discussing tropical possibilities in the Caribbean.

No snow but gotta tell you it's cold in Raleigh.

29 degrees this morning where I am..

As for the tropics...

European 192 hours out.

Showing this to show you the time line.

Much can happen between here and 192 hours.

So just keep it in mind. Know it's there.

Euro model giving it higher than better odds of forming in the cradle of the Caribbean moving up towards the Greater Antilles. Jamaica could be in play though Jamaica has gotten lucky most of this year avoiding a major hit by Matthew. Haiti, that was trashed by Matthew, may get more rain from Otto...should Otto form and move it's way.

A system in the Caribbean this time of year is like a quarterback in the pocket with the best protection in the world. Cam Newton should get so lucky. It can just hang in the pocket down there waiting for it's chance to finally see a receiver get free.

Brief geography lesson here.

Greater Antilles means the BIGGER Antilles.

Great not meaning better....

...great meaning bigger.

Jamaica and Hispaniola in this case.

It also includes Cuba and PR.

But for now let's focus on Jamaica.

Then we will focus on Haiti and DR.

The Canadian, of course, shows Otto.

Then again the Canadian... 

...ain't it sweet?

Shows lots of possibilities.

So let's look at the GFS.

GFS is mostly advertising winter in the short term..

Long term maybe..

So it for now we are watching a strong cold front move South.

That's Houston that was watching it.

We had a freeze warning this morning.

My husband said it was a "hard frost" 

Whatever that means.

He goes to Temple early in the morning.

He comes home and gives me the local weather report.

Chilly.

Nippy.

Brisk.

Cold.

Hard Frost.

This morning it was "hard frost"

Beautiful from inside looking out.

And then it warms up.

It's that time of year.

So stay tuned.

Nothing happening right now.

Note swirl in the BOC.

Low off of the Carolinas (cold front)

Nothing yet in the Caribbean.

But if you remember I mentioned the Supermoon.

This earthquake just now was after the one in New Zealand earlier.

You might want to watch the Earthquake line today and tomorrow.

Supermoons go together with Earthquakes.

Add in high tides and odd storms sometimes.

A friend online reminded me of Hurricane Lenny.

A rare strong Cat 4 November Hurricane on this day..

So it CAN happen.

Anything can in the tropics.

In any given year.

Is this the year?

Can't say yet...

...keep watching.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Low Pressure Forming. Frontal Low? Tropical Low? Give it a day or 2. We are in Transition. Supermoon

This is the current set up in the tropics.

A few spots of purple show possibilities.

MJO is almost favorable.

There's a lot of talk out there but no promises.

Some models show a Low forming off Carolinas.

Frontal Low moving up the coast.

Possible early winter storm set up.

This is about a day ago.

But changes every model run.

Sort of like a reality show huh?

Weather is really the BEST reality show.

So who do you believe?

The grid below is a forecast.

Not a model prediction but a forecast.

Shows a Low off the Carolinas.

Moving up along the frontal boundary.

Super moon in play here.

69 Years.

That's a long time.

Often they are associated with earthquake and crazy weather.

HIGH TIDES ALONG THE COAST

You might want to look online for information.

The Supermoon is for sure.

The formation of a low in the Caribbean or Atlantic not for sure.

Not to wax poetic on politics but to use it as an example.

This morning they said Christie was in charge of the transition team.

This afternoon they said he is no longer in charge.

Christie was replaced by Pence.

It changes like models.

Every few hours.

I'll tell you what I know.

I may be on the road when the storm moves up the coast.

Time will tell.

We have transitioned from Halloween to Thanksgiving.

Cranberries fresh in a bog.

I know you must be wondering about 1948.

Last big Supermoon in November.

So I guess you the 1948 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Or the months of October and November.

A November storm in the Atlantic off the coast.

A late season October storm up across Florida.

Shear charts show it's not friendly today to development.

Stay tuned.

Only thing on the move right now is a strong cold front.

Moving down and very apparent below.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps.. This is the Transition Season.

Oddly it was 9 degrees colder last night in Raleigh than NYC.