Leslie Makes Landfall near Portugal and Spain After Being Downgraded Just Prior to Landfall. 1842 Also Had a Hurricane Hit Spain... After 2 Similar Strong Hurricanes in NC and FL and a Quiet MDR. Thoughts on the NHC CONE and a 1970 Datsun.

Leslie made Landfall.

I know. 

I can't believe it either.... 

So many different cones the last few days.

One of them got it right though.

(I'll discuss the yellow area in the MDR in next post)

See that little red dot on the top right of the page?

It says LE... 

That's Leslie impacting the Portugal and Spain.

Here I'll make a close up for you...

Maybe it changed it's name to Lee?

Anyway...

It went extratropical suddenly.

That's all that's left of it.

It still had 75 MPH but it was no longer a "hurricane"

I suppose we can continuing saying Spain didn't get hit.

Just slammed by a wild storm with 75 MPH winds.

Hmnnn.

It's possible that they may see more weather down the road.

That's the track for Michael.

Maybe France won't get a tropical storm.

Wherever the remnants go they will be strong.

Storms that travel that fast don't fall apart quickly.

Leslie may get back over water by the way...

Accuweather obviously has an opinion.

http://time.com/5424104/hurricane-leslie-portugal-spain/

I'll update tomorrow with information on what happened.

But I'm pretty sure it was one stormy mess.

So you think Spain doesn't have hurricanes?

They do. 

They have.

This is an animation of the 1842 Hurricane Season 

It's a best guess based on DATA.

Note what is missing?

Nothing forming in the MDR.

Different but similar landfall locations to this year.

NC got slammed.

Florida Panhandle got slammed.

Weak systems into Texas

Florida Keys into Panhandle. 

A storm in October goes to Spain.

This is what I mean by history repeats.

You learn from history.

No huge Caribbean storms.

MDR was quiet it seems.

Other areas were not.

The real reason I wanted to come on tonight was to talk on the 1842 hurricane that hit Spain which may or may not have fulfilled the rules of the NHC but it goes down in history as a landfalling Hurricane. Why this is so important other than random information is that the 1842 Hurricane Season bears an uncanny resemblance to the 2018 Hurricane Season.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1842_Atlantic_hurricane_season

In Alphabetical order are the locations that dealt with tropical weather in 1842. The video below is what it would look like IF we had satellite imagery and cones out the wazoo. Note how similar the tracks are and remember this year Texas got hit by a few crazy "no name" storms that were worse than some of our named storms. They had the impacts of what would have been a strong named storm without the name including serious flooding.

In 1842 NC had one of it's worst storms in history.

Massive flooding, towns destroyed. 

It's always in the history of NC storms books.

There are no reviews.

Remind me to write a review.

It's an awesome book.

From Google below:

In September a storm was around the Florida Keys.

The Florida Panhandle had a severe tropical storm later.

 Ludlum the best of the best early mets..

Discounted it being another storm near Texas and believed...

...it was a continuation of the storm down in the Keys.

Sound familiar?

Gordon?

In October.......

A storm came up out you know where.

And made landfall in the Florida Panhandle.

Read Wikipedia or click on the text below.

Sure sounds a lot like Michael.

Locations a bit different.

Track a bit different but the pattern was there.

What happened next?

A hurricane hit Spain.

You can't make this up.......

They showed Vince from 2005 as an example.

See history does repeat.

This was 1842.

I bet you are wondering what happened next...

One formed off the Florida coast... to near Bermuda.

It brushed the FL coast and Charleston area with gale force winds.

An earthen dam had damage along the Georgia Coast.

It would be very logical to believe that formed at the tail end of a front.

There are fronts moving across the country.

Moisture in the Caribbean.

The last of the tropical waves moving West.

Caribbean is favored by Climo through November.

As much as we are watching the Caribbean for some system to form that could be a weaker version of Michael or some November storm that cruises ENE or NE out of the Caribbean threatening the Islands and or the Bahamas it's just as easy to believe now that we have fronts on the move that one will falter and stall out off the Florida Coast and another system similar to the last system of 1842 could happen this year. History repeats and obviously there was a similar pattern that year as this year. If we didn't have satellite imagery the way we do now and models an old time meteorologist would probably connect the dots and say some of the storm that was Kirk went West into the Caribbean and eventually reformed and moved North into Florida. In 1842 there were no models, radar data or satellite imagery.

So keep watching.

As for my thoughts tonight on Michael there is just so much I cannot wrap my head around and I'll discuss it another day. But for tonight this is all I want to say.

Look at that picture.

The link to the article is below.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/13/us/hurricane-michael-wxc/index.html

The death toll climbs state by state in unique but predictable ways. A tree fell on a truck or a truck slammed into a fallen tree. Storm surge deaths come to light as teams get into the areas and go through debris and find bodies. The back side of Michael that intensified from North Carolina into Virginia as it became one with the front took many I am sure by surprise as so much emphasis in the media is on "landfall" and "storm surge" and "highest winds at landfall" and very little is talked about by the media on anything beyond landfall. The NHC mentions things and reminds people to check their local NWS office and as I've said sadly the local NWS offices get very little press as the media touts the cone showing where the storm will make landfall. Anyone reading blogs or following on social media knew that this storm was moving fast and within one day it would be make it from Florida to the Carolinas and into Virginia. But the average person watching the nightly news still or checking headlines will only see the CONE a day before they are blasted by 50 to 80 winds in North Carolina and Virginia.

My blog from Monday before Michael made landfall.

When it was trying to pull together.

Pleading people to remember how fast it would move.

And that people in the Carolinas and Virginia...

...would get impacts and they would happen sooner rather than later.
Dangerous impacts from a Tropical Storm.

The local weather people here talked on it's dangerous impacts but the general feeling was that they were keeping us in a Tropical Storm Watch out of an abundance of caution and that the Tropical Storm Warning was put up for the same reason. Few inland took it seriously and the only concern on the local news was to assure people Down East still cleaning up from Florence wouldn't have to worry on more flooding. Flooding in NC and Virginia was NEVER a concern with Michael, but high winds as the storm and the front blasted through after a solid day of rain with wet soil meant trees would topple and weather would become dangerous. If it wasn't for the NC State Fair canceling the Opening Day and postponing it off til Friday I don't think the locals here would have thought much on Michael. Everyone was in shock and it showed the possibility that high winds were there as they had to watch the rides and secure what wasn't taken down. If the Fair is worried, there must be something to worry on someone told me in their own words. Smart thing too that the Fair did that as two trees went down on the property or part of the trees and one severely injured one of the people who works the fair. Luckily no one else was walking through that area near that gate when that tree came down. His trailer was parked near the spot as he works the fair, otherwise there would have been hundreds, thousand of people in the general vicinity. The Fair Grounds are beautiful when the Fair is not in town as it's the site of the NC State Flea Market and it's a fun place to walk around on a Sunday under huge Oak trees providing shade on a hot summer day.

Cranky sent me the wind speeds as I had asked him on Friday. Impressive what the wind and gusts were that brought down huge trees and added in the death toll from Michael. I believe five people in Virginia died which is just so sad as they should have seen this coming as we talked about it online for days, however did the message get out to the media I wonder?

https://twitter.com/crankywxguy If you like longreads and you obviously do as you are reading this.. check out his blog. Spoiler Alert it's longer than mine. He has much good information to share.

Those are strong winds.

They caused death and destruction.

But the talk was mostly about where landfall would be...

... but people died far away from Mexico City.

Far from the Florida Panhandle.

So there are just some things I don't understand.

They didn't evacuate a Florida State Hospital which is used for mental health patients who mostly have been committed put there against their will and I'm sure there was some logic and they "thought they'd be okay" but they weren't and so they were dropping food and water by helicopter down to them for days. Seems odd. Strange story. Didn't they  know that it could easily be cut off and with the watches and warnings up for this storm when it was a Potential Storm why did they not evacuate them before or have more supplies?

https://www.thestate.com/news/nation-world/national/article219837535.html

Much I don't understand about how things work with regard to warning people of inland dangers from landfalling hurricanes and the NHC's refusal to update their cone to show inland dangers or flooding potential is just lame. They do a great job in general under difficult circumstances but when you ask them to modify the Scale they use and the cone they refuse saying it was "confuse people" even though these same people are on Facebook and Twitter that updates their format every month and people get used to it. They truly act like that old guy driving along in an 1970 Datsun because they refuse to sell it going 45 mph on the highway because the speed limit is 55 MPH listening to Iron Butterfly on a cassette player that they had to install when the 8 Track died on them sadly.

I get it. I hate when my phone says it wants to do an update. But it's part of life and it's time for the Cone to be updated. Again possibly put the cone over the satellite image and put an old fashioned symbol for flooding over the area that may lose all their crops, homes, farms, businesses and where many may lose their lives because they thought they would be fine because they were not "in the cone." Life will go on really and it will be a better product.

I'll write a full post tomorrow on the tropics and an update on Michael as in what was done right and what was done wrong that hopefully we can learn from and update the way we do things and do it better the next time around. They learned after Sandy they needed to put in good graphics showing where flooding would occur and they have put out some great products, but they are not on center stage and the only thing that gets shown in the media is the cone so it's time to update the cone. I'm pretty sure no one at the NHC is still using an old flip phone or refusing to update their iPhone so why not update the Cone?



Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Updated 5 PM Tropical Storm Michael Moving Through the Carolinas on His Way Back to the Sea... Atlantic Ocean and a Cone That Goes towards England. 50% Orange Circle Where Michael Formed in Caribbean. The Hurricane Season Isn't Over Yet.

This mass of rain is about to move through.

High winds.

Power outages up from when it moved through to the West.

Look at that wind history.

Amazing.

Tropical Storm Michael tapping into moisture again.

I'll do a full update either later tonight..

Or tomorrow.

I want to watch what happens...

...as we are under special warnings.

Michael...Still a Tropical Storm.

Awesome day in Raleigh.

Later...stay safe.

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps... Death toll is rising, even in NC a tree fell on a man in a car.

What I am watching while I type this post.

Drone video from Mexico Beach.

Just gone....

...in places where storm surge slammed onshore.

Why we beg people to leave and evacuate.

There is no fighting that sort of deadly power.

It's why we call it Ground Zero.

Where a storm surge hits land.

Storm Surge from a strong Category 4.

So where are we now...

..other watching in awe of the power of Michael.

Let's start at the beginning.

In the 5 day we have a 50% chance of development.

The zone is the area that brought you Michael.

It won't be "Michael" but it could be Oscar.

Nadine is out by Africa supposedly a "fish storm"

Leslie is still here after all this time.

Michael is over the Carolinas.

That NE at 21 MPH will increase in forward speed.

Statistics.

Michael one with "The Front"

The front that lifted him... pulled him North.

A strong early October Cold Front.

A strong October Hurricane.

This relates.

The set up called for this to happen.

That's why I wrote about it in July and August.

All September I said "a system riding a cold front"

I'm not a seer... it's a pattern.

A meteorological pattern.

The pattern called for this to happen.

Michael embedded in The Front.

Below shows concerns on where I live.

I'll believe it when I see it.

Yes took things in from the balcony... 

I have batteries left over from Florence if power goes out.

Candles, canned food if I lose power...

...better now with Michael than Florence.

Cool weather pushes in behind The Front.

Look at those temperatures.

40s at night on Friday.

After Wilma in Miami it was easier than...

...after Andrew on Miami Beach.

Hurricanes that ride a front...

...flip the switch and turn the cold air on.

Again hurricanes help move air around the atmosphere.

That is why they exist they transport energy.

Where does Michael go down the road?

It's a long, long road.

Where does Michael go today?

Over my head... over the Carolinas and Virginia.

In Panama Beach there's an Air Force Base.

That's a fighter jet flipped upside down.

Michael knocked a train off it's tracks there as well.

It slammed through a bank and didn't look back.

A well built bank.

But when the wind gets inside...

..it rips everything apart.

And he's still going strong.

Not a hurricane, but less than a day after landfall.

He's moving towards the Atlantic Ocean.

Sniffing fumes of more moisture.

Watch him go...

Here in Raleigh I'm waiting to see what I will see.

If anything happens I'll post here...

...and of course on Twitter.

@bobbistorm on Twitter

So read my thoughts and think on what I said.

And, remember that the Hurricane Season is not over.

It's a busy hurricane season...

..and it came alive late in the season.

As for me...

Still gathering day and processing the data.

Michael was one for the history books.

Also one for meteorologists to study.

In Raleigh we have various warnings on the weather.

Michael and "The Front" are coming through today.

Rarely does Raleigh get real weather.

The problem with that is......

...when we do it makes National News.

Yeah, it's a huge hill hard to see how high.

It glazed over immediately and became ice.

A sheet of ice under falling snow.

What Raleigh really looks like in the snow is below.

Raleigh can be a beautiful place to live.

But got to tell you it's a little boring.

Rarely snows.

Hurricanes don't make it inland.

It's a Season's Lover's Dream.

Long Spring, Long Fall.

Today we are supposed to get weather...

...from Michael and "The Front"

No one wants Michael...

...but everyone wants "The Front"

The views from the Florida Panhandle are stunning.

But what is to be expected from a REAL Hurricane.

Not one of those lopsided tropical storms.

Or your typical barely a hurricane.

The view is the same as of Andrew.

There isn't much I can add today to what happened yesterday. I'm sure I'll update later today and write more. It's a big, huge mess. In some places it's just a mess, but in other places it's devastation. People who went through Michael in Panama City ...they won't want to hear about how people in Tallahassee went through there as the damage is not comparable. Much the way people in Homestead didn't want to hear about how bad Andrew was in Hialeah and Coral Gables. ln truth Coral Gables is a beautiful city filled with more trees than most people usually see in the "Miami Area" and those oaks and hardwoods that make Coral Gables so beautiful were ripped to shreds. People do love their trees. Miamians love their palm trees, Carolinians love their pine trees. No one likes to see them ripped to shreds, but it pales in comparison to a flooded city or a town totally ripped apart by a strong Category 4 hurricane.

Love that when you put in any place on the planet into Google.

And it shows if there is a Hurricane Warning.

Awesome really.

Hurricane Michael damage below "Panama City"

Hurricane Andrew damage below.

Hurricane Andrew had stronger winds.

Hurricane Michael had lower barometric pressure.

I would venture to say Hurricane Andrew was stronger in different ways and the damage was more intense when you realize in Miami most homes are built to codes with construction and in most parts of the Panhandle you have homes built to less codes and the homes are more wooden construction. The truth is every intense hurricane is different in intricately different ways. Some have little eddies of crazy wind carving out atmospheric rivers of damage and others are steady, solid bulks of hurricane force winds swirling in a more predictable manner. Some carry huge risks for tornadoes, especially later in the season as they tend to hook up with cold fronts and the tornadoes happen far from the center. Some hurricanes have all their wind in one round, neat center circulating fast around a cloudless eye and a bit further out it's all tropical storm force winds and squalls. And often until it makes landfall we just aren't sure how it will play out. Yes, storm surge is easy to forecast for a small narrow barrier island. But not everything is so simple and even landfall is hard to figure especially with Major Hurricanes where the eye sometimes wobbles within a general track and often the storm comes in parallel to the coast as Charley did or David did so every small variation in the track can mean a huge difference as to who gets landfall. 

Yes, this hurricane formed under strong shear and that's rare but I've seen it before. Yes, Florence punched into dry air the whole way at a latitude that would not support that sort of development especially with SAL everywhere and yet she became a Major Hurricane in her own right in "negative conditions" ....so think of Albert Edison and how a child who could barely make it through school was able to create something that none of us can live without today. Mark Zuckerberg was never thought of as a "friendly" guy, not popular by any means yet he made a fortune and developed a social media platform that is based on being "friends" and being social. Hurricanes defy the rules sometimes and Major Hurricanes defy the rules in major ways. That's where we are today.

http://www.beliefnet.com/love-family/2003/09/does-your-child-have-the-edison-gene.aspx

I wrote part of this post while talking to my son Moe. It's good to know my in-laws down in Tallahassee are good but their beautiful area took a beating. Nothing like Mexico Beach but trees are down and the power is out and it's a huge mess. My daughter-in-law Kristin is from there and we have become close as a family; I really like her mother a lot.. about as much as I like her and my granddaughter Olivia. Families expand with love over time. Her mother asked me to go back with her for Thanksgiving last year after the wedding in St. George Island, but I had to go back to Miami as I was driving back with my daughter and my grandson Judah; didn't want them alone in the car as it's a long drive. In Miami I had an awesome Thanksgiving with my daughter-in-law Rachel's family that is Cuban where I got to have Flan as well as incredibly delicious food with a ton of kids, relatives and dogs running around everywhere. Where will I be this Thanksgiving? Not sure. New York or Raleigh, probably Raleigh. 

I love writing this blog. I love my kids. I love the stupid pine trees that are beginning to sway in the breeze off and on more on now than off. And, hopefully Raleigh will be okay and I'll go to the NC State Fair next week.

Stay tuned. Stay safe. Michael will be gone tomorrow. But his ugly legacy will live on for a long time while the Florida Panhandle and it's beautiful waterfront property tries to pick up the pieces.

There has been no video from St. George Island.

The one house that shows a storm surge is on the Bay.

As for me.. I'm in Raleigh.

Really.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter.

Ps... It's funny my son Moe was trying to find information on St. George Island an interesting way I wouldn't have thought of... Moe is one of those kids who had to learn things his own way as school was not his thing; he has a bit of ADD as a few of my kids do and he found ways to work around the system and survive and thrive. Kids who don't follow rules well when young don't do well in school and kids who want to do other things than sit in a boring class find ways to do other things.  I have a touch of ADD but it never bothered my school learning, I thrive in a classroom he thrives out in the world. So he was going through Facebook looking for Facebook Live Videos of people who lived in Panama City and St. George. He found great videos with live time information. We are all different and that's a great idea. I wouldn't have thought about that ... even though I'm prone to do Facebook Live when out somewhere new or if something is happening. Note his name starts with a M like Michael and Mitch and Matthew :)  He told me if I lost power in Raleigh we should drive down to him and his family in Miami; that's Moe but it's going to be in the 40s here this week and the NC State Fair is opening soon! Wow. I'll update later in the day. Thanks for reading and for all the support and kind words yesterday on Twitter. 

Tropical World. Watching Caribbean For a Possible System... Models Showing What We Have Been Talking About. Give Thanks the Tropics Are Quiet Today. They Won't Stay Quiet. October M Storms.

Many people think this is my world.

It's our world.

From June 1st to November 30th...

...it's a view I choose to view often.

Watching the tropics.

The Hurricane Season.

October often brings storms out of the Caribbean.

Sometimes hurricanes form from dead fronts.

Anything can happen in October.

November gets a bit flakey.

Suddenly a storm in the deep Caribbean...

...slices across the basin moving ENE.

The 1st 10 days of October are dangerous.

Today nothing much is happening.

Leslie is there.

I am NOT going to talk about Leslie.

Just showing her.

Fully tropical currently.

Small kinks in the wind field in the Caribbean.

Remember that.

It's not a straight flow.

Note the image below.. only Leslie.

This will change.

Yellow and orange circles will pop up one day soon.

A look at the Caribbean shows us....

A tropical wave westbound mid Atlantic.

Remnants of Kirk in the Caribbean.

Moisture in the Gulf of Mexico.

Leslie out there...

Whether the remnants of Kirk....

...or the new wave in the Atlantic provide the spark.

Something is forecast to light up our lives soon.

Coming out of the Caribbean.

Kirk so far....

His "final" graphic.

Is it final?

Maybe. 

I'm not sold one way or the other.

But til the last rain shower is gone for more than 24 hours.

I'm watching it.

From a friend online.

He's good at sniffing out tropical trouble.

Even before the models show it.

Actually many of us do.

It's basic meteorology more than modeling.

But when the models see it ...

..everyone wants to see the models.

He speaks on this concept often.

It's actually well put.

There is a great map on Cranky's blog shown below.

You see here what I am talking about.

You have tropical waves... 

You have an area you have to watch.

Fronts start pushing down.

The set up screams "something tropical spins up"

Where?

When?

Somewhere in that box.

Note the map below.

Water temperatures.

High. Still high along the East Coast.

Not out where Leslie is spinning.

But along the coast red hot.

This is not a good set up.

Something may form out there and it's very possible it will but where will it go? I don't know. Telling you that plain and simple, but I'm pretty sure by October 4th I will know and I'll go long on discussion. Remember Wilma? Remember Mitch? Remember Matthew? The list goes on and on. There is a reason we watch the Caribbean for the M storm and in the super crazy hyper year of 2005 you flip the M to a W and you get the same system just too many letters down the road in that very busy year. There is a reason North Carolina fears storms that start with F .. Fran, Floyd, Florence and there is a reason people in Florida and Cuba and the Bahamas watch the deep Caribbean when in an average busy year we get down to the M storm in early October. Michael is the next named storm. IF Michael gets anywhere near that oceanic fuel along the East Coast we could have a serious problem. That's a real IF but it's a IF that should make you stay alert and not eat up all the Twinkies in your Hurricane Supplies just yet.

In Raleigh today the News and Observer put out a special section on Hurricane Florence. I knew they would and I knew it would remind me of Hurricane Andrew and it did. But mostly I wonder if the house where the sweet Irish man tends the garden every summer filled with many flowers and varieties of sunflowers will be there next summer. Will someone tear down the house and build a new larger building or will life go on a little longer the way for those of us who drive in from Raleigh, park the car near the house and walk over to the beach by Johnnie Mercer Pier. Routines and traditions are so important to us in this part of the world.

I'll update later today on this.

My world is large.

I have kids in England, Israel and Canada traveling.

I'm watching them online ... virtually traveling with them.

This week is a big Jewish Holiday.

Some days I'm online.

Some days I'm off.

My son backstage with Benny Friedman.

They have worked together for a long time.

Watching him in concert in Jerusalem.

As my world turns.

Do a good deed today ...

..say Thank you to someone.

Be kind.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

I'll update later today.

Probably during the Carolina Panthers Game.

#keeppounding.

Ps.... Toda means Thank You!

Tell someone Thank You today.

I got to watch this video as it was being put together.

One of my favorite songs and videos.

Toda!