Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, September 19, 2019

Historic Flooding from IMELDA In Some Areas More than 30 inches... 43 Inches in Some Areas. 1 Death So Far. Jerry Going to Bermuda? Maybe. Copy Cat Following Humberto.


Still raining after all this time.
And the rain...the weather didn't move deep inland.
It's spreading into Louisiana.
The TX/LA border of the Sabine River.
Nice little towns. Bayous. Swamps.
I-10 is still closed.
Many roads are impassable.
Flooding worst than Allison...
... a real mini Harvey going on.




The scope of this disaster is heard to comprehend.
The airport is technically open....
...but the roads to get there are under water.





Governor of Louisiana thanking the Cajun Navy.



I went out to take care of some things.
Came home and put on TWC.
Still raining, flooding.
Rescues going on of all kind.



Kind of says it all as I was taught that how people treat their animals says a lot about them. 

 And we have had a death during this horrible storm when a young man was hit by lightning.

He was out in his boat trying to help stranded people.
So sad. Very sad.

People were begging for help.
Looking for ways to help.

Twitter account for the Cajun Navy.
If you know anyone who needs help...
...or you want to help.


I was going to write about models.
I looped a lot models.
Nothing new to tell really.
I have a headache and the models make it worse.
I had the sound down on the TV while writing.
And had to turn the sound up to figure this one out.


They are begging people to say off the roads.



And this is the point here.
I knew something like this would happen.
And the system was easily identifiable on loops.
And there should have been....
...could have been more warning to people.

Slow moving rains causing slow motion tragedy.
I'm not interested in the "center" the NHC tracked inland.
And I'm not interested in them telling people to look elsewhere.

Image of the cute map from the site they are sending ppl to...
...see previous blog. I love maps but that doesn't cut it.
Show images of flooding, do videos.
Draw maps like Cranky does.
This is tropical.
Earlier warning could have helped some people...
...prepare or move to higher ground.
Then reporting a TS formed and made landfall.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/qa/201207_rick_knabb.php



I'll stand by that tweet.
I've met him.
He's a sweet man, smart, kind.
Concerned and knowledgeable.
Doing a good job at the TWC.


So you want to know about Jerry?
Models in agreement.




Water Vapor below.




My husband used to ski often.
And I don't mean water ski.
He grew up in upstate NY.
He took his skis to school in the winter.
The way Miami kids skateboard.
He said skiers have this problem...
...sometimes with tracks from skiers that went before.
I'll defer to him as I've never skied in my life.
But it's logical.

Here's the MIMIC loop.


It's obvious until this pattern changes.
The storm tracks are set in stone.
For a while not the whole rest of the season.
Fluid Dynamics 

But at some point the Carib and GOM get hot.
Sorry but that's Climo.

One model I'll share ..
...shows a closed low in the Gulf of Mexico.
At some point the pattern changes.
African Wave Season ends.
And GOM and Carib begins.
And they get pulled North.


In the same way Humberto followed Dorian..


And Jerry follows Humberto.
Because lows go to lows.
and they try to stay way from high pressure.

I'll do models tomorrow.
Today everything is about Imelda.
May not have been officially a TS...
...except for an hour or half or so.
But it should have.. could have..
..been an Invest earlier.
More attention should have been given to it.
The tropics is more than just African Waves.
(yes i said that...)
And hope next time people are not blind sided.
So today is about Imelda.
And the families impacted and struggling.
Who will have to rebuild or move once again.
Just as they were putting Harvey in the rear view mirror.
So give charity or time to help if you can.
And trust me Florida is not safe for the season.
As they are most prone to be hit from the S or SW
Coming up over Cuba or from the Yucatan.
Think Wilma...
Later in October.

Listen I do this to help.
Hoping to help someone who feels confused.
I'm not doing this for students getting Masters Degrees ..
... or others who understand technical language.
But for those who need to know.
If I can help good.
I'm not charging money...
I'm not selling tee shirts..
(tho if I did I'd offer V Necks...)
And if I can help. Good.
Been doing this blog since 2004 or 6
(who remembers

So thanks and keep getting that word out.
Perhaps had this been an Invest earlier.
Perhaps people might have had time to prepare.
To evacuate. To move valuables up to a safe spot.

Much respect for the Cajun Navy.
For volunteers. For Red Cross.
For TWC nonstop covering the story.



Again the NHC is tracking the center up into N Texas.
The associate weather is ongoing near TX/LA border.
This is not just about Texas...
...but now the weather moving into Louisiana.
It's all about the weather...


Besos BobbiStorm
@BobbiStorm Twitter and Instagram
Updating in real time.
Watching more weather history unfold.

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posted by BobbiStorm @ 2:44 PM 0 comments

Wednesday, January 03, 2018

Snow in Florida. Ice in Lake City Florida. Winter Storm Grayson Forming & On the Move... Up the Coast. Wintercane! Cyclone Bomb (really thank u NY Media) Will Grayson Follow the Forecast Track or Provide Us a Frozen Surprise. WINDS in NY NE Intense... Tropical Storm Force Strength in a Blizzard!

allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif (799×559)

Watch it race up the coast!

Currently the satellite looks like this:





Happening Already...

Today



Day After Tomorrow



The in between tells the story.
How and where this storm evolves.
A storm for all chasers it seems...
Moves FAST like the 1939 Labor Day Hurricane.
Moves in FAST.
Moves out FAST.
Leaves Freezing Cold Behind.

To be honest this is not about chasing it's about watching weather history evolving in real time and watching it frame by frame as we stare at each new satellite image coming in while watching each new model run try to best handle what may be almost impossible. There are so many elements to this storm and the real issue is not being talked about as much as the historic hype that translates to many as simply "SNOW" or "Winter Storm" or for hard core TWC people "Winter Storm Grayson" 

But what are we really looking at? Well in Ocala they are getting cold, nasty rain. Further up the coast in Tally they got snow. There is much ice on some beautiful magniola trees and when you have that much ice on so many dark, heavy green leaves you have the potential for power outages and beautiful much loved trees coming down and bringing the power grid with them. So you have freezing rain, ice, snow and extremely strong winds further up north as this weather bomb transitions into a winter storm with possibly hurricane force winds; tropical storm force winds for sure though they are called Gale Centers up north as they race towards the Canadian Maritimes. I want you to think of the 1938 Hurricane but layer a blizzard on top of that track and with those same effects. Howling winds, stormy surf and speaking of surf they are having a problem along the Low Country beaches this morning as ice is forming along the marsh line and the the tide is coming in.



The word "historic" is bandied about way too often and when a real historic storm comes in people think it is merely hype and nothing more. Some storms are truly historic and this may be the first of several other systems later this winter. In the same way we thought Hurricane Harvey would be "THE STORY OF THE HURRICANE SEASON" we were sadly wrong as each storm laid a different layer of misery down onto the 2017 Hurricane Season. You can follow Michael Ventrice on Twitter if you are on Twitter and if you are not on Twitter ...why aren't you on Twitter? https://twitter.com/MJVentrice His loop shows the size and scope of this epic storm. 




Dabuh provided the music for me this morning.
Helped get me into the mood to blog.
Thank you... as always.


Let's look close up at that image.


What is that?
Looks like shock waves from an earthquake...
...or maybe isobars around a cyclone.
It is our Winter Storm.
Mike aka Spaghetti Models calls it:
"WINTERCANE"


Reed Timmer who does Twisters better than anyone.
Is all over this Winter Storm.
Blizzard Warnings from N FL to Maine..
You don't see that everyday.


So where do we go from here?

This is one of those times it is better to over prepare for an event as temperatures up north are and have been below freezing for days. Add in places Down South as I've lost track of how many hours it has been below freezing in Raleigh but I believe last night we were around 70 hours. It's warmed up to 21 degrees from around 15 at sunrise. We are flirting with above freezing around the middle of the day and I suggest just to be on the safe side "do some shopping for necessities" today rather than hear tomorrow that the forecast was a bust and we got more than side swiped snow flakes falling. If the power goes out... you want to have instant food. When New Bern begins to feel like Boston Harbor you have the potential for continued cold frozen weather and frozen precipitation making it even colder. Snow lays a cold blanket down and adds to the deepening cold temperatures.  Places along the Carolina coast from Elizabeth City to Norfolk and up into parts of Virgnia along the coast will be as frozen as the proverbial Delaware that Washington crossed. That also includes Little Washington a place on my bucket list to visit before I leave North Carolina if I ever actually move away from here.


There's the map above.
Note those thin lines can wiggle each way.
The storm is still forming.
Below are the cities watching carefully.



Again I'm concerned that areas not prone to ice storms are not fully prepared. I'm concerned that areas not used to Black Ice will lead to tragedies as people are unaware what Black Ice really is other than something you hear about on The Weather Channel. And, to be honest most people do not watch TWC anymore and if Roku isn't running warnings and while TED has lots of videos on how to improve our environment and global warming ... alas I could not find any on the dangers of Black Ice in North Florida. Weather is local, climate is global. 

So stay informed on the real time evolution of the storm. Make sure your phone is set to show you updated weather warnings. Hunker down and hope the forecast is not a bust or the brunt of Winter Storm Grayson goes somewhere else.

Savannah currently has ICE.
Freezing RAIN.


Great Lakes Icy.


Rapid Intensification is the problem.



Note PROJECTED track.
Up Close.


Any wiggle west ups the impact inland.
I95 Gonna be a mess.
Stay off the roads.
Hunker down.
NYC media calls it a "Bomb Cyclone"
I know as my daughter asked me what that was.

Just Keep It Simple here..

Strong, explosive, winter storm.
WIND layered on top of winter weather.
Frigid temperatures.

I'll update later.
It's still coming together.

https://patch.com/new-york/new-york-city/nyc-weather-forecast-bomb-cyclone-bring-snow-deeper-freeze

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter.


;) you were expecting the Beatles?
Nah... watch out for the unexpected with Grayson!
It seems to be over performing so far...



Concerns on the power grid between need for heat and people losing power from the effects of Ice.

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posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:34 AM 0 comments