Snow in Florida. Ice in Lake City Florida. Winter Storm Grayson Forming & On the Move... Up the Coast. Wintercane! Cyclone Bomb (really thank u NY Media) Will Grayson Follow the Forecast Track or Provide Us a Frozen Surprise. WINDS in NY NE Intense... Tropical Storm Force Strength in a Blizzard!

Watch it race up the coast!

Currently the satellite looks like this:

Happening Already...

Today

Day After Tomorrow

The in between tells the story.

How and where this storm evolves.

A storm for all chasers it seems...
Moves FAST like the 1939 Labor Day Hurricane.
Moves in FAST.
Moves out FAST.
Leaves Freezing Cold Behind.

To be honest this is not about chasing it's about watching weather history evolving in real time and watching it frame by frame as we stare at each new satellite image coming in while watching each new model run try to best handle what may be almost impossible. There are so many elements to this storm and the real issue is not being talked about as much as the historic hype that translates to many as simply "SNOW" or "Winter Storm" or for hard core TWC people "Winter Storm Grayson" 

But what are we really looking at? Well in Ocala they are getting cold, nasty rain. Further up the coast in Tally they got snow. There is much ice on some beautiful magniola trees and when you have that much ice on so many dark, heavy green leaves you have the potential for power outages and beautiful much loved trees coming down and bringing the power grid with them. So you have freezing rain, ice, snow and extremely strong winds further up north as this weather bomb transitions into a winter storm with possibly hurricane force winds; tropical storm force winds for sure though they are called Gale Centers up north as they race towards the Canadian Maritimes. I want you to think of the 1938 Hurricane but layer a blizzard on top of that track and with those same effects. Howling winds, stormy surf and speaking of surf they are having a problem along the Low Country beaches this morning as ice is forming along the marsh line and the the tide is coming in.

The word "historic" is bandied about way too often and when a real historic storm comes in people think it is merely hype and nothing more. Some storms are truly historic and this may be the first of several other systems later this winter. In the same way we thought Hurricane Harvey would be "THE STORY OF THE HURRICANE SEASON" we were sadly wrong as each storm laid a different layer of misery down onto the 2017 Hurricane Season. You can follow Michael Ventrice on Twitter if you are on Twitter and if you are not on Twitter ...why aren't you on Twitter? https://twitter.com/MJVentrice His loop shows the size and scope of this epic storm. 

Dabuh provided the music for me this morning.

Helped get me into the mood to blog.

Thank you... as always.

Let's look close up at that image.

What is that?

Looks like shock waves from an earthquake...

...or maybe isobars around a cyclone.

It is our Winter Storm.

Mike aka Spaghetti Models calls it:

"WINTERCANE"

Reed Timmer who does Twisters better than anyone.

Is all over this Winter Storm.

Blizzard Warnings from N FL to Maine..

You don't see that everyday.

So where do we go from here?

This is one of those times it is better to over prepare for an event as temperatures up north are and have been below freezing for days. Add in places Down South as I've lost track of how many hours it has been below freezing in Raleigh but I believe last night we were around 70 hours. It's warmed up to 21 degrees from around 15 at sunrise. We are flirting with above freezing around the middle of the day and I suggest just to be on the safe side "do some shopping for necessities" today rather than hear tomorrow that the forecast was a bust and we got more than side swiped snow flakes falling. If the power goes out... you want to have instant food. When New Bern begins to feel like Boston Harbor you have the potential for continued cold frozen weather and frozen precipitation making it even colder. Snow lays a cold blanket down and adds to the deepening cold temperatures.  Places along the Carolina coast from Elizabeth City to Norfolk and up into parts of Virgnia along the coast will be as frozen as the proverbial Delaware that Washington crossed. That also includes Little Washington a place on my bucket list to visit before I leave North Carolina if I ever actually move away from here.

There's the map above.

Note those thin lines can wiggle each way.

The storm is still forming.

Below are the cities watching carefully.

Again I'm concerned that areas not prone to ice storms are not fully prepared. I'm concerned that areas not used to Black Ice will lead to tragedies as people are unaware what Black Ice really is other than something you hear about on The Weather Channel. And, to be honest most people do not watch TWC anymore and if Roku isn't running warnings and while TED has lots of videos on how to improve our environment and global warming ... alas I could not find any on the dangers of Black Ice in North Florida. Weather is local, climate is global. 

So stay informed on the real time evolution of the storm. Make sure your phone is set to show you updated weather warnings. Hunker down and hope the forecast is not a bust or the brunt of Winter Storm Grayson goes somewhere else.

Savannah currently has ICE.

Freezing RAIN.

Great Lakes Icy.

Rapid Intensification is the problem.

Note PROJECTED track.

Up Close.

Any wiggle west ups the impact inland.

I95 Gonna be a mess.

Stay off the roads.

Hunker down.

NYC media calls it a "Bomb Cyclone"

I know as my daughter asked me what that was.

Just Keep It Simple here..

Strong, explosive, winter storm.

WIND layered on top of winter weather.

Frigid temperatures.

I'll update later.

It's still coming together.

https://patch.com/new-york/new-york-city/nyc-weather-forecast-bomb-cyclone-bring-snow-deeper-freeze

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter.

;) you were expecting the Beatles?

Nah... watch out for the unexpected with Grayson!

It seems to be over performing so far...

Concerns on the power grid between need for heat and people losing power from the effects of Ice.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-02/america-s-power-grid-showing-signs-of-strain-amid-brutal-cold

Updated. Are Models Trending West? Snow in FL UF & FSU Students Told to Bundle Up and Hunker Down. Texas to Maine Under Watchers and Warnings. Possible Hurricane Force Winds Along the Coast.

Still forming.

Call it Winter Storm

Call it #GRAYSON

Call it Trouble.

Again note up the coast the threat is WIND

Brutal cold.

In NC we are watching it.

From Raleigh NWS Discussion

Potential to look this way.

OR..... WAY FURTHER WEST?

How far South will this go?

NWS Jax below.

UF going to get weather.
Go Gators ... Bundle UP!

TWC calls it #GRAYSON
They will be on for live ...
...local News doing Team Coverage.

Lake City FL

Pretty far south to see Winter Weather.

And then there is the humor...

Hurricane Recon going into the storm.

Well when the storm forms.

Models showing possibilities

Feels like Hurricane Season ..

...doesn't it?

Up near NC

Maybe..

Look at the size of this system.

Winter Trouble System.

On the back side 

Arctic Air flows down.

All the way down.

Note discussion out of Jax NWS

TWC going to Lake City Florida.

The satellite loops are awesome.
The models are threatening.



Thanks https://twitter.com/sjltx1963 for above loop!

1. Note COLD air up near the Dakotas diving down.

2. Note the extremely cold cloud signatures off the East Coast.

3. Watch off the coast of South Florida just North of Cuba.

This Low Pressure System is forming now. Models have trended West meaning more coastal impacts though until it forms and begins to move it's anyone's guess how much winter weather Florida and coastal Georgia will see. TWC is in Charleston SC so you can extrapolate that a bit and know that they are expecting to cover a Winter Storm along the coastline. In North Carolina, as always, the snow line is just over Raleigh and if it moves a bit to the West than the RDU metro area will have drive time impacts even if there is only a little snow. Why? Because the ground is currently frozen solid and anything that falls...........will stick. The Outer Banks should get a strong blow as the Low really wraps up and it may deliver Hurricane FORCE winds somewhere further UP the coastline. 

Wes is who I respect the most in the Raleigh area.

https://twitter.com/WeatherWes

I do want to say one thing. Some models have seen to be too extreme and hard to believe. That's possible, however they said that about the rain totals forecast for the Houston area when Hurricane Harvey was in the Gulf of Mexico. This is not a year that I would like to bet against "extreme" temperatures, winds or snow totals. Then there is the threat of ICE and I mean that with regard to Florida.

FSU is under a Winter Storm Warning.

So I'll update later tonight as the next set of model runs come in and we see if the trend today that was further West continues. Note all of the players are online and it feels like a Winter Hurricane to see so many of the tropical regulars waxing poetic on models and discussion. 

He is just so good.

Dabuh doing his thing.

He's in the JAX area.

This has his attention.

It has everyone's attention on the East Coast.

Okay, I'm going to keep this simple in discussion and share some thoughts with you for now. Later this evening I will most likely update my thoughts as to the winter storm TWC calls Grayson. Most people are calling it "You Got To Be Kidding!!" as the brutally cold weather has reached deep into the State of Florida and even Miami people are complaining it's damp and cold. You see "cold" is exciting, but no one wants damp, cold, windy weather.

The "Low" is forming as I type this close in to Florida somewhere in the Bermuda Triangle that swallowed up several planes back in the 1940s never to be seen again... but this Winter Storm will not go away for days. Realistically speaking it will impact coastal areas from Florida to Maine. Parts of Florida have a Winter Weather Warning and they may see snow and or ice tomorrow in a swath from Tallahassee Florida where FSU students were put on notice for the winter storm to just East of Jacksonville. As this is a developing situation this could develop into a bigger storm or it could pull more to the left or right much like a game ending FG in a Noles game.

Let's look at that "pressure falling" one again.

Let's use our ole wind site.

Can you see the kink in the winds?

Up close and personal.

In the Florida Straits.

This is wrapping closer in than yesterday's thought.

A very sound voice in Raleigh.

He knows weather, models and the Carolinas.

Updates will be made tomorrow.

Anyone traveling I95 might want to rethink that.

From Texas to Maine ...

...and everywhere in between.

And just for extra credit.

There is an abundance of energy in the tropics.

Hmnnn

Snow in the GOM.

You don't see that often.

http://www.theadvocate.com/new_orleans/news/weather_traffic/article_c9aab646-effb-11e7-ad49-6fd21c0b13dc.html

I'll be back later tonight with an update.

Most likely at the top.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

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