Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, August 04, 2019

Tropics Quiet. 96L Given a Chance. 10% on Sunday Morning. 95L Raining Itself Out Over the SE. Today the High is In Change. In 3 Weeks That Could Change. Why Kelvin Waves Don't Always Have Super Powers. Shootings and Imagine A World Without Them.



If I was in a cute mood I'd sing...
Is that all there is?
But I put my thoughts at the end in music.
So you can scroll down but read first please.

NHC lowered the flag to yellow.
10% chance.
Leaving open a slim doorway it could squeeze thru.
Doubtful tho looks better today than it has for days.


Remnants of 95L off E Coast.
Small S structure 96L always had bottom right.
Now it wants to twist and shout?
Go figure. 

Let's look at the wider picture.
Why?
I want to see what steals your attention.


Yes the huge frontal boundary.
In August there's a huge frontal boundary.
A dark strong high and waves westbound.
Note how low the next set of waves are.


I want to say one thing about the state of the tropics on August 4th and that is it will change in about three weeks time as slowly changes take place. The high may do some odd kinky things and the fronts will become a perpetual issue as waves become not Invests but Tropical Storms and Hurricanes as we move out of summer towards September. Also as always watch old fronts that lie dead in the water for possible development close in throughout August. Also watch the Yucatan as we move deeper into the season and we see how far South these constant frontal boundaries get later in the season. There is real potential for trouble this year and as it's a fairly normal year the first real named storms to worry on will form towards the end of August. As always things pop up early on weaker but often indicators of where to watch come September.

As Mike says... 95L remnants out there.
Remnants and nothing more.



With respect to 95L ...
It is worth noting it danced with the front yesterday.


Whichever model predicted concentrated rain...
...got it right.
But it was not a tropical storm or hurricane.


And please remember models still like 96L
Some models do.
As it didn't develop they take it West.
Weak waves wander West.
Always remember that.
So could it flare up somewhere else?
I'll leave the chance there...




A brief discussion this morning on the tropics as obviously many other things are on my mind this morning when we wake up to the news of the shooting in Dayton last night after I finally fell asleep after watching coverage of the El Paso shooting and more so there is nothing going on in the tropics.  Why is basically a mathematical equation easier to solve than why we have to wake up to such sad news on top of sad news from yesterday.

Strong Shear + Dry Air Kills Strong Waves.
2 is stronger than 1.

Also add in climo and we normally expect the Atlantic to wake up sometime between August 15th and August 26th in any given year no matter how beautiful the waves look or how much hype there is online or how many Invests the NHC is watching.

Understand for years we watched Invests they did not make it to prime time, we talked about them on message boards or in chat rooms or on phone calls late into the night discussing what if might happen or not happen. Then Invests went public and were raised to a higher status and every news media covers them as potential hurricanes when they are just areas of disturbed weather in the tropics with some model support and possibilities down the road.

Yes the MJO is on it's way and yes the Kelvin Wave is waving yet nothing developed. Think of this as being a fantastic possible boyfriend or husband but they don't leave the house and are afraid to meet someone they have been talking to online. They are cute, smart, funny, reliable but they are never going to meet the love of their life or even a best friend if they don't get up, go out and meet the different people they have been talking to and all they can end up doing is asking why so much potential gets lost and ends up like road kill on a hot summer day. Sorry for the inferences but I'm in a mood and pretty sure most of us are this morning.

The MJO and the Kelvin Wave are interesting theories but they only work if there is a well built tropical wave that has a defined center moving Westbound and there is no high as dry as Death Valley out there sucking all the energy out of the once beautiful tropical wave.

And we have to ask what is wrong with models. Yes, models start with an assumption something is there often and other models show where there may be moisture. I'm not in love with models but I do love to watch them wondering which may have been right. It's pretty clear that the Euro as usual beat the GFS on 95L and 96L so it seems the GFS just needs to be dismantled and totally rebuilt or do we give up? The ICON is getting attention of late. What is wrong with America that we can't build a reliable long term model for the tropics? Just throwing it out there. If my brother in Greece reads this he will know what I mean.


Because Twitter is broken since it's update...
...and it messes up our posting images :(
I'll post both so you can see them.

GFS Fail.


EURO Wins.


The EURO originally accurately predicated nothing.
A few stray model runs that excited the NHC
But basically GFS screaming hurricane was wrong.
We figured but good to see consistency.
Consistency from the Euro model.

Leaving you with this loop below.

atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

Will 96L come back to life eventually?
Maybe but not holding my breath.
What will winter bring?
(I didn't say that...okay yes I did)
La Nina is coming I do believe.
Time will tell.

We should have a problematic hurricane season.
Come Fall... when hurricanes develop.
And play chicken with approaching fronts.

Stay Tuned.
Have a good safe weekend.

I'll update Monday Morning.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbstorm on Twitter and Instagram.


Ps... if you want to stay inside this weekend.
The movie Yesterday is cute.
Makes you think.
Kind of a fantasy.
Worth watching... 


Imagine a world with no guns, no bombs.
No anger, no hatred.
Just imagine.


With prayers for the people of Texas.
For the people of Ohio
For America and the World.






Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,

posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:03 AM 0 comments

Friday, August 02, 2019

Updated!! Tropics on Friday Going into A Summer Weekend. 96L Chances Being Lowered Day By Day. Some Models Tho Won't Let Go... X95L Flaring up as it Merges with the Front. Pets and Hurricanes. Bobbi Bought a Beta .... Pray for It!

8 PM Update.
Rain with thunder in Raleigh.
Seriously I know you want to know about 96L
Still there.



In the 2 day low expectations.
In the 5 day still expecting it could develop.



Note the moisture feed from X95L is amping up the SE rain.

GOES16-TAW-13-900x540.gif (900×540)

So the rain in Raleigh was tropically topical.
And wow convection by PR but not 96L...
96L has developed two small orange eyes.

It's something........



I'll update Saturday evening.


As of earlier today
If you didn't read please keep reading...

96L is still there.
But not expected to be a hurricane down the road.
Things can change.
But today it's trying to hang onto Invest status.
Friday Afternoon it had 40% chances ...

atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

Before going forward I want to backtrack a bit to yesterday when I wrote about the trouble with long term models regarding tropical waves that haven't developed, yet models develop them pushing the buttons for more careful surveillance. I pointed out that despite it looking like a healthy wave it was moving into an area where shear seemed strong and it seemed a disconnect with the models that were Gung Ho and possibly is why the EURO was slow to go on board the 96L Express.  You can go back to yesterday's blog and scroll way down but I made a screenshot for you to make it easier.  Note there's a red river of shear there that 96L would have to transverse to get to where it was supposed to blow up into a hurricane.


Bottom image shows gold and orange.
Shear there.
And the High being very strong as shown below...
...in Cranky's excellent illustration.
Made me wonder on the problem.


Sometimes in the right spot....
A wave can become ventilated and intensify.
But how it does so with that sort of pressure...
high pressure riding it the whole way.
Then it has to cross shear?

To be fair it wasn't just the GFS.
Other models intensified it.

To add to this quandary ...
Normally models begin to lose a wave ...
...if conditions are poor and it's bound to unravel.
Yet even today some models take it to TS status.


While none are screaming hurricane.
They are still suggesting Tropical Storm.
That could change later today.
Models change in real time...
Models are not crystal balls.
They are not psychics.
They take data (that changes in real time)
And they offer solutions.

So where are we currently?

Friday Afternoon.
NHC sticks with 40% in 5 days for 96L


And when they say the next 5 days.
I believe they mean on day 4 going into 5.
Conditions currently hostile.
Shear is there as explained below.
A huge high pressing down on it... 
...giving it little breathing room.


Not looking good.

By the way 95L was written off the soap opera.
It's still kicking up more actual weather than 96L.
But it's future chance of winning an Emmy are gone.


Go figure it has all the convection 96L is lacking.
But the models hate it.
The front ate it.

Fronts in August.
Hmnnn......

Note 96L was briefly on a leash to the area to it's NW
Sometimes this gets interesting.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+
shtml/021058_MIATWDAT.shtml?

The link above is to Tropical Atlantic Discussion put out by the NHC. If you ever wonder what those odd areas are that no one is talking about you use this link and it familiarizes you with the coming and going of different characters on our tropical soap opera. Seriously this time of year it feels like a fledgling soap trying to gain an audience, but by the end of August it ramps up to Sweeps Week and if you ever watched General Hospital or One Life to Live (may it rest in peace if no one can bring it back...) you totally understand this example. 



Our usual characters are shown below.
More will be introduced soon off of Africa.
And possibly closer in .....
...because things to pop up often known as home grown.


Center stage the white blue bits of clouds is 96L
So the question is when it gets to near the islands.
Where that ball of convection is...
Will it come to life as some models suggest?

That's the question on the table today.

Meanwhile note the convection over Florida is firing up.
And it's merging with a frontal trough of sorts.
That's been the pattern this season.
It's just rain today.
Down the road it could be a hurricane.

Picture some hurricane down in the Caribbean.
Down near Cuba or the Yucatan.
Being pulled North by an approaching front.
A cross between Wilma and Sandy.
Could happen.
So don't write off this season because it's quiet.
It's usually quiet until around August 12th...
Mid August things look better.
August 24th through the 26th usually it comes alive.
Every year is different depending on the set up.

Meanwhile the NHC will follow the models.
They will introduce Invests.
When there is an Invest I'll cover it more.

I'm known as "not a model hugger"
I like them.... I just wouldn't marry them yet.
They are exciting and stimulating.
Kind of like a hyper, cute terrier or poodle.
My mother had a poodle once.
My boyfriend' hated it.
My friends thought it was eccentric.
My friends were right.
My mother was proud it had a pedigree...

Some of these waves roll off Africa with a pedigree.
Good looks, convection, nice bones.
And then they meet the huge High.
SAL.
We will talk about King Tutt on Sunday...

And a cute mutt often steals the show close in.
You know like that pooch you found on a cold night.
Lost by the railroad tracks near the house.
That mutt becomes your best friend.
So much for a pedigree.
So much for models.

If you have a pet.
You need to figure it into your hurricane plans.
Pet Supermarket has a good guide.



I'll be back on Sunday.
Nothing is expected to develop before then.
Watch your local weather.
Summer storms pop up fast.
Flash flooding happens.

Stay tuned.
Have a great weekend.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... I bought a Beta... pray for it.


Yes... Bobbi bought a beta...  been a while.

I'm not great with them and haven't had one in a while.
It's reddish. just pray...








Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,

posted by BobbiStorm @ 11:35 AM 0 comments

Thursday, August 01, 2019

Updated 2 PM. Models Flip Flopping (no surprise there...)August 1st. Models Wake Up - 96L Poised to be Chantal. (The Problem with Long Range Models) X95L Off S FL Coast Kicking Up RAIN


First off remnants of 95L just offshore.
A ball of convection but not expected to develop.
Zero chances from NHC.

Below is 96L
Still at 70% over the 5 day period.
If models continue to back off....
...they may lower this a bit soon.


Again this was supposed to develop later not sooner.
It was never expected to develop in the short term.
But models have been arguing over which way to go with it.

Good comment online.
What we are all wondering.


Generally I take the long view and watch the loops.
When I said "the problem with long range models"
That was foreshadowing.
As what the models give on Wednesday Night........
....they take back often on Thursday morning.

The problem with long range models is they are long range.
No center there.... no recon. 
They take wild stabs in the dark trying to pin down the track.
They get the track better than the intensity.

The GFS has backed off on it's Gung Ho hurricane off the E Coast.
The Euro steadily ignores development.

Note the GFS below.


It still shows "something"
But nothing organized.

The Euro still shows nothing.


Same day, same place.
Different solutions offered.


Before above.
Note the dry high pushing down on 96L

Below is after.
Dry as a bone.
Showing her bones.


Now let's look at the WV Image.



96L is cruising into a dry atmosphere.
Note waves to the East have color....
...once they make it West they don't.

This is typical.

It's August 1st.
You need lots of patience when tracking storms.
But you know that I'm sure.
Stay tuned for more.... 
models, drama and discussion.


There is a trench of dry air.
If it can get up there...
..where convection is flaring.
Just NE of the Islands.
It has a chance.

Stay tuned and keep praying it avoids the islands.
I'll be back if and when things change.

... Keep reading if you haven't done so already.
As I said earlier it would have to fight dry air.
Possibly that's what the EURO was seeing....
...that the GFS wasn't seeing.

???
:)
Keep watching.

Again note what I said.


Again there is a huge dry high to the North of 96L
It's suppressing it, sucking the moisture out of it.
Can 96L get to friendlier water?

Remember one thing!
If 96L stays weak it goes West ...
It gets further to the West.
Goes into the Caribbean.


Always watch the trends.
The trend is weak and to the West.
If it survives.
It could.
Stay tuned.....

* * * 

From earlier today.



96L forecast to be a tropical depression sooner than later.
Expected to become TS Chantal down the road much later.
Though as always it's far out and models can change.


https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_mlb_anim.gif


I know models show big things for 96L
But X95L is doing it's thing now close in.

Going to be a soggy week ....
..while many wonder on 96L's future track.






X95L is close in near Florida.
Near where many models have 95L/Chantal down the road.
Only a 10% chance of developing but...
... NHC says it has a chance as of 8 AM.








Leaving room here to update at 8 AM.
Old models ... new models.
It's August so get your act together.
Make a plan, buy what you need as you can.
And monitor the tropics!


This was 2 AM.. 70% chances Atlantic Wave.
10% chances 95L for development
100% chances of much rain from 95L
Far out in the Atlantic........
Development seems to be set for 96L
Most models show 96L becoming Chantal.


Remember before we go further ....
What EXISTS NOW is a strong tropical wave.
Invest 96L


If that doesn't get your attention what will?
Possibly the GFS... 
As for the Intensity models Thursday AM


If you throw out the Major Hurricane variable.
Ignore it.
This shows a hurricane is possible.
Yes many models ramp it up down the line.
Not today or tomorrow or even the next day.
Then some models go bonkers on it.
Yesterday people were ordering Fish...
This morning they are ordering Steak.
If you're a vegetarian this is a beautiful Kale salad.

It's going to be a crazy day of people watching models.
So let's begin.
# 1 it's August.
So let's not discount the models.
#2 it feels 3 weeks ahead of schedule.
Prepare accordingly.





The problem here really is this.......
The GFS is hot to trot.
Buying up stickers for it's favorite candidate.
The EURO is not playing along.
It did a while back then it stopped.
What will it do next?

Going to www.windy.com for good visuals.

Always entertaining GFS


The EURO model some call King.


The "King" shows nothing.
I don't like calling it that but many do.

So that's a big disconnect.
Why isn't the EURO seeing Strong Chantal?
Possibly it keeps sniffing the shear there?



None of these models say much other than...
"start your engines"
But it looks like a choppy ride.
Could the Euro be thinking too much shear?
Strong High?

Talking to Cranky last night ....
....he showed me this image.
He said I could use it so I am.
I like it because he sees the High.
A strong high moves your across the Atlantic.
But it also takes a bite out of intensity usually.


He will explain it using many excellent words.
Yes a weakness off shore can exist.
But... look how strong that high is.
Doesn't allow it much breathing room.
It's far down the line so much could change.
4 images from www.tropicaltidbits.com



Note GFS ensemble models show it further off shore.

This is the dance we do every year.
Long range models offer solutions.
Long range models offer possibilities.
Then Long range models reshuffle solutions.
Each model run is a new episode of ...
How the Tropics Turn.

The Bachelorette is over.... 
No spoilers but she Hannah B may be back... 
The Dem Debates part 1 and 2 are done ...
...well this set of debates.
Just like models change so do debates.
And speaking of the debate.
Candidates agreed Climate Change was the #1 isssue.
Yet Climate Change wasn't brought up til the end.
Yeah... not everyone watched the debate.
Some watching Netflix series.
Some watching old episodes of Gomer Pyle on Youtube.
I watched the debates.
I loop the loops.
I watch the models and think "it's too soon to know"
If you're here you're a watcher.

So we have Invest 96L and X95L to watch.

As for X95L approaching downtown Miami..
Okay approaching South Florida.


It may be just rain to you ....
...but it's going to be a mess in the S FL area 




Honestly believing in long term models as a lock in....
...is like thinking what happened last night shows the candidate.
Next model runs flips around a bit.
Early models are like debates a year away from election!



The debates show trends in discussion and popularity.
They show who may or may not be ready for prime time.
But they are as unreliable a predictor as long term models.

But we do love to watch either way.
Well some of us do.
I do.

What really is on the bottom line?

http://www.publix.com/pages/publix-storm-basics

I hate to sound like a broken record...
Prepare is the best thing you can do today.
August 1st is here.
Just do it.


Publix shows it all.

Wind, Rain.
Protect your home....
(Stay or go)
First Aid... medicines.

Yes one person needs diapers.
Another person needs depends.
And it depends on YOUR needs what you need.

Again old graphic to remind you.


Above is where X95L was expected to form.

Models for 96L show a continuation of that game plan.
The team of 2019 tropical systems is simple.
Get under the High, move towards the Islands.
Pull North because cold fronts still on the maps.
Threaten the coast with landfalls.
Surprises are always expected.




Above is the GFS Thursday Morning.... 
...but that's stronger than inhaling Espresso brewing.
Monitor it ... that's the point here.
Watch Cantore on air.....on the beach.
Watch Mike on Facebook Live.
Go about your business but monitor it!
That simple and remember it's August.




Be like Susie and know it's time to wake up!
Could this be the year Chantal is retired?
I sure hope not.... it's a pretty name.


Using an old fashioned version.
Because this is an old fashioned hurricane season.
And if you drink... you may need an Old Fashioned!
or a Kale smoothie ;)



GFS or EURO?
Landfall or Fish Storm?
You got options today.
It's luckily still very far away.
Lots more Spaghetti Models down the road.
That I can tell you for sure!!
That and prepare now for hurricane season!
Choose according to your needs what you buy...

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Great song. 





Labels: , , , , , , , , ,

posted by BobbiStorm @ 3:44 AM 0 comments