Hurricane Harbor: Joaquin Knocking at Cat 4 Door IN the BAHAMAS Moving SLOWLY. Flooding Rains for Carolinas & East Coast. IDA'S Remants May Save the East Coast From a Direct Hit... Will Be Updating in Real Time...

So much to say this morning and this is more discussion than graphics as he whole shebang will be updated at 11 AM with the new advisory package. I want to go over a few strong points that must be remembered.

1. Jim Cantore was ranting days ago about this being a huge rain event. I mentioned it. Many people have mentioned it. The problem is most people have problems wrapping their head around anything other than landfall and storm surge being the problem to worry on when they see a Hurricane on the map near their home town. Inland flooding is an issue in river basins or where there is rugged terrain. Creeks rise....... Flash flooding occurs. Mall parking lots can become mini lakes when they are built in a flat valley like area; many malls were built in such areas as it's easier to build there than on a steep hillside. Case in point Crabtree Mall in Raleigh.

The images above are of the many times Crabtree Mall has flooded.

They have gotten better at seeing it coming.

Now days mostly the parking lot floods.

It is built in a valley.

Crabtree Valley.

A mini small valley but that's all you need to get flooding.

James Madison University in VA had flooding recently.

Fun when you are in college video taping.

Not fun when its in your house or your car is floating away.

Rain and high flood potential IS the biggest certainity.

Obviously when you are directly hit flooding is worse.

Hurricane Floyd in 1999 in NC is such a case.

Note this image is NOT Joaquin.

This image below is Floyd...in the same spot oddly.

I seriously hope the NHC talks nonstop on the RAIN to the East of the Cane.

Because sadly the NWS doesn't get the big press.

The NWS SHOULD GET THE PRESS

But they don't.

And everyone wants to know ...where is landfall....

2. Joaquin is currently smashing up parts of the Bahamas. The Bahamas are CURRENTLY in the EYE WALL of a Category 3 Hurricane that seems to many well educated meteorologists a Category 4 Hurricane CRAWLING through parts of the Bahamas.

Find the Bahamas.

Pin the eye over the Bahamas.

You can't because Joaquin is anchored over the Bahamas.

Moving S L O W L Y ...WSW.

A band of rain from Joaquin is actually over Cuba

Hispaniola even has rain from Joaquin.

So let's give the Bahamas their hurricane.

No one has talked much on it..

Cantore has said "hearts and prayers go out to them"

A few people online have talked on it.

But all anyone wants to do is talk on the end game.

THIS IS THE GAME.

BAHAMAS ARE GETTING A CAT 4 Hurricane..

Or darn close to it.. splitting 5 mph hairs.

Phil Klotzbach knows weather.

He gets weather.

He understands the priorities this moment.

Since 2008... strongest hurricane.

Everyone else just wants to know ..

"where is it making landfall"

It is making landfall IN the Bahamas NOW.

Loop he shows is below

Those little pink dots are land.

This is an INTENSE...

SLOW MOVING MAJOR HURRICANE.

Let's worry on the models later.

Spoiler Alert: Models coming around to Euro ...

I'm not going to wax poetic on "out to sea" models..

Or even NC VA Delmarva NY NJ when...

Bahamas are getting SLAMMED

3. Everyone watches the storm on floater and few watch the whole, wide picture.

The biggest October Surprise so far has been the reappearance of the remnants of Ida. This area may get a name and if so it may not be Ida Jr. And, the big surprise is..... that this may be the Holy Grail the Euro has been seeing that keeps Joaquin off shore and exits left out to sea. Sadly, the rain event will most likely happen either way ...even if Joaquin goes away and doesn't make landfall. Big IFS and I will be back to discuss them after the 11 AM package.