Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

UPDATED Joaquin Going Hurricane. Models Pull WEST... Slow Moving Over Warm Water and Low Shear. Joaquin is in the Cat Bird Seat... How strong a Cat will he be?

Quick update to verify the NHC also said its a Cane.

Track shows the hook I speak of later in the article..
I'll be updating completely the blog after the 11 AM advisory

I was up late watching models and discussing possibilities...
On shore or off shore this has huge impacts.
A direct hit would be really bad.
Even staying off shore would cover a large area with more rain.
Flooding rain. Damaging, flooding rains.

Models still bouncing some.
Visible this morning shows what visible last night does...
Joaquin is a hurricane.

A lot of people were up all night watching an "Eye" like feature form..
in a 70 MPH Tropical Storm... 

Hey this is what we do... 

And Joaquin comes under the category of Close In...
Close In AKA Home Grown 

Love this image. It really shows how close it is to South Florida.
Not headed to South Florida, but pretty far South and West.
Probably because it has been edging South and West for hours.

I'm never happy when a storm doesn't read it's own forecasts...

A long post as I owe a few people.
Just my thoughts and some thoughts online by friends.
A lot to think on this morning... it's morning for most of you.

I will be updating all day in real time on Joaquin.
The new models tonight indicate a pull to the left and higher landfall probabilities. This is a classic "how to get a hurricane up north" set up. A building, strong High Pressure Ridge blocking the often used exit plan out-to-sea that most coastal cruisers take off the East Coast tends to set up a greater chance for a landfall of a tropical system. Add into the mix a stalled out frontal boundary and an Upper Level Low inland which causes said tropical storm or hurricane to "hook to the left" like a bad kick at the end of a UM FSU Football Game. It happens, though rarely, and that set up appears to be lining up and getting in place for huge hurricane hype up and down the East Coast from the Carolinas to Maine. Mind you this could change with the next batch of model runs. But, if you see the hype machines beginning to ramp up, this is the reason why.

Also, Joaquin intensified tonight rapidly over warm water and rather light shear. Joaquin found his sweet spot in the Atlantic off the coast of Florida on the edge of the Bahamas. Invest 90L is watching carefully behind him.

The NHC went very conservative with the 11 PM advisory package. They said Joaquin is 70 MPH tonight, but expected to be a hurricane in the next 12 hours. Well, I'll agree with the next 12 hours part. He is intensifying as I write this and they have him forecast to be at 105 MPH in 72 Hours.

Tonight's blog should be titled "The Problems of Being a Forecaster in 2015" or what it's like to live in 2 different places. As I am here in NC for the Jewish Holidays where we sit in a booth outside and enjoy a "harvest festival" of sorts and usually I think how lucky I am to be here where there is fall color and cool temps rather than being in Miami where we get hurricanes and humid hot weather. This year Raleigh feels more humid than Miami as we have been dealing with nonstop rain and very muggy days. I believe it was mentioned on the news that this is summer like weather. No duh... It rained the first night of the holiday, I saw the full moon briefly before the clouds and rain rolled in and the eclipse began. Last night the crickets were out, it felt like August and there wasn't a breeze anywhere, ...rain finally moved in. The ground is saturated, people are tired of the rain and yet rain is in the forecast for the next week... after the front moves through and then backs up again. Note that backing up again is not a good sign if you are hoping Joaquin will go quietly out to sea.

Hold that thought... 

My kids are in Miami where Joaquin spins in the Bahamas were watches were posted tonight, just in case he continues his westward movement. 

Miami is on top of it as usual.

As I told Phil, looks can be so deceiving.
I'll always remember Floyd so close to Miami.
The NHC really nailed that forecast.

Unfortunately they are having problems nailing this one :(
Sort of an epic fail. 
At 11 AM they said it would top out at 70 MPH down the road.
At 11 PM it was 70 MPH and they top it out at 105 MPH..

If you can't get the 1 day down right how can you get the 3 day or 5?

They will have better data tomorrow for the next model runs.
With a bona fide hurricane and an eye the models should also be better.

North Carolina is watching.
As is VA, Delaware, Maryland, DC, NJ and NY
New England...

As I said earlier this is the classic set up.
Young guys have to stop comparing to Sandy.
They can compare to storms way before Sandy.
In order for a storm to go inland....
....this is the classic set up.

As they Chris said... a lot can change.

On the subject of hype... great Tweet tonight.

Granted this storm is not out by Africa.
Many models show landfall in 5 days or less.
In NC or Del Marva or NJ or NE...
So the hype machines will be cranking.

And..add in record rain fall amounts in some areas.
Flooding inland today in the Triad.
Terrain creates flash floods from this much rain.
Add in saturated ground getting more rain and wind equals trees down.
Trees down equals power outages.
Even if the storm stays off shore ....

As Cantore said tonight in discussion with me earlier.

So to highlight, illustrate Jim's tweet....
This is the rainfall potential 


Up close....

That's a lot of rain.
On already saturated ground.
Coastal erosion from the last "Invest" . . .

Localized to the Carolinas.
We can deal with Del Marva and NJ tomorrow...

If the models keep shifting West this is a real problem for Carolinas.

And Brad is on top if it in Charlotte.

A sneak peak at Cape May's Weather in NJ this weak.

That's a lot of rain.

As Jim Cantore said... the rainfall potentials is the real story here.

I'll add in ....the rapid intensification this evening is also a big story.

And as for the "down the road" as Jimmy Buffett sings..
We are all in it...

Note its far fetched or not but Florida is in it tonight.
It slowly moves closer and closer... stays lower and lower.

What does the NHC say tonight?

Part 1... my thoughts highlighted in yellow

Hmnnn Um...
Next day or "so" is vague, very vague.
Shows they are very unsure.
"Some what conservative"
You think?

bd_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

And part 2 just reminds me of Jim Williams.
His rant on throwing the models in the garbage can.

105 MPH in 72 HRS.
I wonder if they were conservative on that too??

Okay so the front is where?

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)


Joaquin is where?
Over warm water and low shear.

Basically what this shows is Joaquin is sitting pretty... the Cat Bird Seat.

How strong a CAT will he be is the question?

The NHC would love to say Bye Bye Joaquin..
..and see him go out to sea.

But the GFS just slammed him into the VA/DC area..
...close to NC and oh ouch Maryland and Delaware.
We can obsess tomorrow on "down the road" scenarios.

My husband and others in the financial planning world..
Wait up to see what the markets are doing in China... an indicator of tomorrow in the US.

Meteorologists wait up for the GFS to see how different it is from the EURO.
Funny but true.................

The GFS really paints a bad picture for the US.
Then again, the Euro is usually more spot on.
Not always. That's why the NHC blends them.
I hope the 11 AM smoothie from the NHC tastes better.

That would be a bad scenario for the Tidewater of VA.
But it's just one model.
One important model.

Joaquin. Looks like a Cane.
Or very, very close.
Nice tail developing too.
More rain.

Tonight I am more concerned with how strong Joaquin will be in the AM.
But I did stay up for the GFS and other models.

(That's after landfall the way...)

I'll be updating in real time today.
Read my previous post as this is an update.
Catching up from being away for 2 days.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... if you wondered where I was... 
I was in a wet booth under a cloud covered moon


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