Ida Weak, Invest 98L & 99L Have Combined 80% Chances... 99 Yellow, 98 Orange... Ida Still Red.

This is well said and the bottom line. A huge rainmaker for the cities, towns and beaches along the Gulf Coast. I may add though the rain will go inland so it's a large event in geographic terms if not in intensity. Again, I have said this many times, a large mass of slow moving tropical weather is sometimes worse than a fast moving small Category 1 Hurricane. Canes come and go and the weather is intense in one particular area. A tropical mess effects everyone across the board and stronger rain can flare up at any time fast and create havoc in your specific area. So, keep watching.

There is something there but it's a fast flow and with the cyclone in the EPAC the flow only becomes faster. There is an area in the GOM close in to shore that is more conducive to some development. But it's a big IF and a matter of timing and location. Watching the Water Vapor last night as well as the Enhanced IR loops it occurred to me that no one area of circulation has taken over. They bloom, they blossom and then they get carried away with the emotional flow ....and then it reforms again.

There is some thing there but it may not get past the "something" stage.

But either way the weather is the story as always.

The rain is oozing North and it leans to the right.

Tampa is beginning to worry on raising the flood watches and warnings.

I've only posted the part about the "LOW" and flood possibilities.

Please read it... it's a great read.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TBW&issuedby=TBW&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1

"after the past two months here in Western Florida . . . "

They have had so much rain in Tampa and West Florida.

Yes the Invest in the Atlantic has higher chances.

And yes Ida is still out there doing her dances.

But with this much tropical moisture aimed at so many GOM cities.

Invest 99 remains center stage.

Until a "center" really forms the models will remain the same.

A few will go left, most will go right.

Some take this rain straight into the backbone of the Appalachian Trail.

This could be a big problem inland.

Waiting for a center.

Waiting for it to come together.

I suppose for it to need to be orange again...

...it could use some of this.

When I was young my mother's friends would try to make jello molds. The kosher friends would always complain about the quality of the kosher gelatin as it didn't jell enough. They would serve these whooshy jello molds and apologize for their appearance. Everyone would taste them and insisted they tasted delicious either way. Often I would notice my friend's mothers who used the real stuff and weren't kosher also complained that the jello molds didn't come out right. Again I would notice everyone would praise on the taste and mix of fruits with some suggestion not to use pineapple in the molds. They never really appealed to me but I did notice most were messy and others had something in them akin to Super Glue cause some of those green ambrosia molds were strong enough to set a Christmas tree in come December... 

Tropical Cyclone formation in an El Nino Year is a lot like trying to make a good jello mold back when. Now days with the vegan crowd and other health interests there are all sorts of guar gm and kosher brands that seem to finally do the trick. Though I seriously doubt they jell as well as the stuff made with the real stuff.  

There are alternatives today. God Bless Seaweed. I'll skip the Jello and stick to sushi!

http://www.thekitchn.com/vegetarian-and-vegan-substitutes-for-gelatin-tips-from-the-kitchn-189478

I mean really is that cauliflower? I hope not.

I was looking thru old cook books yesterday.

It occurred to me our parents had 50 ways to screw up vegetables.

Creamed, fried and put in a casserole or jello . . .

 In the tropics today we have many flavors.

Lemon for the Yucatan.

Orange in the Atlantic.

Red for what the NHC hopes is dead Ida.

50% for Invest 98

30%  for Invest 99

00% for Ida . . . . .

_________________

80% for tropical development.

See I can do math!!

Okay rather than look down the road.

Let's look at NOW.

Key West is getting rain.

Whats in a name? It's rain.

What's in a language? 

Words are sometimes not needed.

Please remember... rain can bring pain.

Flooding rain ...

NHC or NWS?

Still the same.

NWS is watching out.

NHC is watching models.

They have a variety of watches up... 

That is only going to get worse for whole region.

Invest 98L Model Tracks

Models take it towards the coast...

...though I'd wait for the next few model runs.

There is some consolidation going on there around a possible center.

I'd like some confirmation before saying much.

Systems like this are always iffy and messy until they gel.

My gosh it's almost like someone put "Un Gel" in the water this year.

If not for Marty in the EPAC 99 would have a better chance.

It would be RED for dancing in Mobile or P-Cola

But for now it has to wait til it gets closer in.

Away from Marty... and Marty is spinning

It's about energy. If it's here... it can't be there.

There is only so much energy around.

And the energy is rolling in to Marty right now.

So we are going to wait to see what happens with Invest 99L

Either way....it is a MASSIVE rain event where ever it goes.

Even further West is Ida...or what remains of her

Moving West........

You can see all of this being played out below.

Super Duper Tropical Express.

Remember....tho...no pineapple ;)

I'll be back later.

Need some fresh air and better java and better tropical systems!

Feels like fall here in the Carolinas.

I'm thinking I may need leggings today.. 

:(

As I sit here waiting for the 11 AM update from the NHC I'm trying to fight a blue mood. I have a good friend named Yisroel who was very good to me when my father passed away and this past week he lost his sister Martee. Was good to be able to run away to Key West and talk, walk and sometimes there's misty rain in Key West. In between holidays and wishing I was in Key West or Miami. Every year I tell myself NOT going to be in Raleigh for Sukkos and yet I'm here again. I mean I spend so much time in Miami ...it's bizarre I'm here each year. Weather is nicer usually, reminds me of California in a way but nothing is California and nothing is like Key West. Hug those you love tight and tell them you love them.

There it is... 11 AM

...IDA IS POORLY ORGANIZED...

Seriously NHC?? We knew that. Still west bound but weak...

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Shear is not bad everywhere and may favor 98L down the road. 

And sorry for any typos...its that kind of morning.

Crap the liquor stores are closed. 

Who makes a State Liquor Law ???

Guess I'll have to remember buy some for Simchas Torah.

The rum from Miami will have to do for Sukkos.

And, I'm going to friends so that's new... 

Stay tuned..

Note the blue over Invest 98L