Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Saturday, September 26, 2015

GOM System Showing Color. 80% Chances of Tropical Development. Okay 40% and 40% Equals 80 Right? Ida Moving West and 2 Invests. Busy Tropics Filled with Weak Wet Systems

A lot going on so let's take this apart one by one

This orange circle has a 40% chance of being something soon.

Seems the Yucatan is giving birth tonight to what likely seems another Tropical Low cruising North towards the Gulf of Mexico and landfall some where in a few days. The perpetual autumn upper level low moving south towards an iffy tropical low and creating huge amounts of rain along the Gulf Coast some where. Many places are going with the GFS for now...

And then.... further East.............moving West again

Ida.... Ida, Ida, Ida... Oh Ida...

Ida, or what is left of her, is playing games again.
The NHC would dearly love to write her off.

For now they are taking the long view.
Going slow... she is going "left" meaning West.

Ida's track forecast is here...
...mixed in with another Invest we will discuss later on Sunday.

For now we are watching Ida.
I've been thinking that Ida would do this.
But its one thing to think it and one thing to talk on it.
Keep watching.

The other Invest is an ULL like area working it's way down to the atmosphere.
The other part of the trough of rain and moisture.
It has a 40% of forming as well as per NHC forecast.

Note both areas have 40%
That adds up to 80% chances of something... 
Okay maybe not their math but works for me.

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

This tropical ballet can be seen on the water vapor loop.
The Yucatan is looking like a stronger 40%..
Than the other system and Ida is holding her own.. a sea of darkness.

wv-animated.gif (720×480)

Here I am...currently under that rain shield ...
Quiet rainy day, quieter rainy night.
One of those days you lie in bed and read...
Watching the tall pines sway back and forth poetically.

Notice the funneling affect from the GOM up towards the coast.
Where will this system go?
The system is named for now Invest 99

ft_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

Strong flow but a low seems to be forming.
Or hanging in there and giving it a shot.

NHC gives it 40% chance.

I'm going to highlight 3 cities within the realm of possibilities.

Let's start with Gulfport Mississippi.

Upper Level Low meets the Tropical Moisture.
Gulfport has rain in the forecast for the next 4 days...

Next is Gulf Shores, Alabama.
An area very likely to feel it's effects.

That's a stormy forecast if I ever saw one...

They don't seem to care if it has a name... 
They expect someone could get up to 6 inches of rain.
"Developing Heavy Rain Event"

Next let's look at Port St. Joe in Florida.
As the GFS seems to take it more to the left...
Which means more to the Eastern GOM and FL side of the pond.
Note I like their discussion. To the basics.

A Low Pressure System.
Tropical Low Pressure System.
That about sums it up for now.

I want to point out that it's very possible...
This low goes where the last low went before it.
Across Florida and lands in the Atlantic off the SE Coast.

I'll be back with more discussion and first visible images.
Newer models and more discussion on the various players.
For now it's worth saying...

A whole lot going on in the Tropics suddenly...
... yet will anything get a name?

Stay tuned..

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Eclipse Sunday Night if you can see it...

My mother liked her... so putting her up here...


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