Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Invests, Remnants & TD 9 Tropical Misery or Tropical Drama...Which Ever Way YOU Pour It!

Tropical Depression 9 has formed in the Atlantic.
It's very visible here kicking up it's heels.

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Taking center stage with bright red convection.
Also the semblance of a hurricane symbol.
(That's as close as it's getting according to the NHC)
The long tail to the South and arced curve to the North.

I look down at my cell phone, watching the water vapor loop do it's looping thing and it shows me 3 areas of concern. Tropical Depression #9 in the Central Atlantic. Further out closer to Africa there is an Invest with Red X with a 70%  and a persistent ball of convection in the Gulf of Mexico. Hold those thoughts and I'll come back to them after we discuss TD9.

So what's the situation exactly with TD9?

It is moving slowly NNW at 8 MPH. 
Contains 30 MPH winds.
That may be higher at 5 PM.

You're thinking FISH STORM aren't you?
I know you are...  Seems you know the drill.

It looks more like a tortoise trying to be the little red engine that could.
Yes, I am mixing metaphors but... the NHC discussion paints a sad tale.
NHC basically says "this is as good as it gets"
They barely forecast it to get a name..and that's a real IF it gets a name.

My father would have probably said TD9 looks like CRAP

Sort of hard to connect it's current state with the dire discussion.
Let's put it this way...
NHC has been burned badly this season with CV Waves.
I would say they are going conservative.
And, that's good because it's far out and probably going to fall apart.
I say probably. I wouldn't write it's obit yet.. but probably.

Behind TD9 is an Invest.

This explains what an Invest is....

This is an INVEST not a TD or TS or CANE

It's official name or tag is Invest 95L

For today's purpose I'll just say this is the what the models indicate.

Yeah, probably a fish storm. 
Then could hit Portugal.
(just kidding)
(humor helps...)

It's closer to the African Coast right now ... 
So let's look at things that are closer to us...

There is a persistent, annoying trough stalled across Florida.
Add in the "remnants of Grace" and you have ...
Tropical Misery.

Tropical Misery is when it doesn't stop raining.
Tropical Misery is a No Name rainy mess.
Rip Currents.
Local Flooding.
Tropical MISERY...
Not a beach day except for storm chasers..

Both sides and the Florida Keys are involved in this stagnant mess.
So keep an eye on it... cause it's misery even without a name.

Close to the Texas Coast... 
Convection lingers.
Close in... 

Incredible song.
I'm wondering how long rain will persist in the GOM.
Most likely until winter sets in.
When fronts come in early...
..and remnants of storms combine.

Problem is that when convection lingers.
And patterns persist.
Fronts collapse.
Close in... tropical misery sometimes gets a name.
If convection remains...

Remember earlier in this blog I said I'd come back to the GOM?
Let's look at the area close up.

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We can see the front pushing down into the GOM.
And, stalling out.
At closer inspection the area around Florida looks like a concern.
It actually IS a concern as some people have had lingering strong rain.
Flooding has been an ongoing problem around Tampa. 
Something seems to be spinning up in the Eastern GOM. X there, not even a yellow one.
Not even a yellow X down near the BOC?

I'm guessing the models do not justify Xs there... 

If the models do not whisper a name...
...then I suppose we ignore it....


I mean the models aren't wrong right?
Well, maybe a few times this year...

Energy from the past...
still causing "something" today

Perhaps the NHC doesn't want to speculate.
I'd put a large yellow x blob across the GOM.
LOW chances for now.. 10% 

There is something there near the Tex Mex towns.
Way closer in than distant Fish Invests... 
And, Florida is getting weather... tropical weather.
Florida is getting wetter.
So... stay tuned.
I'll update at the top if  TD 9 gets a name.
Or I'll write a new post...
See what unfolds.
Ever play strip poker?
The tropics today are a lot like a game of strip poker.
But you aren't sure who is going to take off what?
You can bet money on the Cape Verde Waves to lose their clothes first.
Perhaps something unexpected will happen today... 

Keep watching that water vapor loop...
Round and round it goes...

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

Note the front is pushing into the GOM.
Then it will stop...retreat... keep watching.
Needs some breathing room.... 

Keep watching, 
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter


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