Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, September 24, 2015

Tropical Remnants in SE Thru the Eyes of F. Scott Fitzgerald on his Birthday. Sept 24th Tropics and Ida... Tropical Dreams for GOM

Drought conditions persist in much of the Carolinas.

The reason discarded Invests are good for the USA is they bring wide spread, slow moving rain. You have heard me say many times that parts of the US gets a large part of their moisture from weak tropical systems. Those tropical waves that never make it past Invest status or downgraded Tropical Depressions. This little Invest that was off the coast of the Carolinas that has been d"retrograding" for a while is a perfect example. Had this wrapped up into some fast moving minimal hurricane ... one small plot of land would have gotten high winds for a few hours and not much storm surge. It would have been a scenic, visual party for The Weather Channel camped out at Pawleys Island or Tybee Beach with Cantore pointing to the sunrise and talking on grey ghosts and legendary hurricanes while not much was going on. It would have been over before it began almost. People would have complained about all the hype and the nothing Tropical Storm that wasn't as strong as an summer thunderstorm.

Instead, systems like this that don't wrap up move slowly, excruciatingly slowly and barely discernibly over an area with multiple blow up showers and lingering rain. The type of rain that tries hard to get down into the dark red clay of the Carolinas. Not run off rain or dries faster than it falls on a hot summer afternoon rain but real........nourishing rain.

And, because it never formed into a specific, small entity ... everyone gets the rain.

So let's look up close at the Invest that was.. and remember there are rain drops that were mixed up with Grace once upon the time... mixed in with a lingering trough and area of Low Pressure that crossed the State of Florida only to be written out of the plot line of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season as an Invest that was.........

I circled it off of Savannah...
...a very fine place to be.

I knew the rain was moving on shore when I looked at my phone.

One of my favorite coffee spots in Savannah was advertising....
Daily special of "Ducking in out of the raindrops" 


Wondering where my kids were as they were driving South.
Seems they were waking up in Savannah.

In the Carolinas ..and parts of Georgia people are excited about rain.
No Name Rain.

It's Gonna Rain!!

Pretty much says it all. 

Notice on the Water Vapor Loop below how it punches inland or tries....

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Note NWS Discussion from Columbia SC

Ida languishes in the Atlantic.
No one pays attention.
The NHC writes discussion.

Going to post 2 samples here.

5 AM and 11 AM

That way you get a clear picture of the evolution of Ida's possible travels.

At 11 AM Avila sticks with the Westward motion.

I think we've covered Ida for today.
If the Westward motion continues ...
And, if she stays alive.. 
We will talk more on her down the road.
A big IF...

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Note the Invest moving inland slowly.
Note it's tail is down to the South off the Coast of South Florida.
That tail or mirror system is feeding it with tropical fuel.

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Going further South....
Look at the tropical moisture express

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Note how the Upper Level Low East of the Bahamas is a player.
It actually steals your attention but try not to look at it.

Off the ledge of Central America is an area of convection...

The Yellow X on the NHC Opening Page.

20% chances long term.

Development is a rough road for this possible Invest.
Keep watching.

I'll discuss the models and possibilities when it becomes an Invest.
For now just saying we may end up with a Tropical Depression.
Or a lot of tropical rain...
Sort of the same...

In Hurricane History Rita was coming ashore 10 years ago...

And back in 1896 F. Scott Fitzgerald was taking his first breaths

Scott wrote about weather and life. 
The two were connected always in his mind.

Those who have really studied Scott the way you study a granola bar wrapper to see how much fat and fiber it know weather was as much a part of Scott as was his "Winter Dreams" and the seasons as much a part of the seasons of the moods of his characters that stay with you always. From the start in the first chapter of Great Gatsby he describes Nick's digs as "weather-beaten" compared to Gatsby's larger palace.... well taken care of next door..

A deeper look at his weather discussion is here below in the same way I do the NHC discussion.

After describing in the opening chapter Nick rented a "weather beaten" cottage... 

"He found the house, a weather-beaten cardboard bungalow at eighty a month"

In Chapter 5 there is this prose... 

"It's stopped raining."

"Has it?" When he realized what I was talking about, that there were twinkle-bells of sunshine in the room, he smiled like a weather man, like an ecstatic patron of recurrent light, and repeated the news to Daisy." "What do you think of that? It stopped raining."

Writers write what they know.
Scott knew weather.

He said it well. He had much to say.

I think that says it all.

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps... a little literary trivia and wondering what weather that place has seen...

What inspiration it provided....

I imagine when Scott went out on the roof patio and stared out...
...he heard the words to be written that were in Gatsby's mind.

A thanks to my brother Jay for this morning's inspiration!


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