Hurricane Harbor: TS Ida Going in Circles. GOM/CARIB Possibilities Down the Tropical Road. Hold On...

TROPICAL STORM IDA

To be honest I've never really been a big Joni Mitchell fan. A few songs I like, but not really her biggest fan. But, this song seems to say it all regarding Ida... she's going in circles out in the Atlantic. And, the seasons they go round and round...that's true. Summer is turning over to Fall ...the switch has been pulled even if it seems like parts of the country are in endless summer. Trust me that will change fast.

You can see the bright red blob that is Ida.

Okay, that wasn't nice.

Let's call her a big red circle.

Note the front trying to push towards the ocean across the US.

Fronts are like lemmings, they always need to find the sea...

There is also color congregating, lingering down on the ledge in the Carib.

Down South of the Yucatan.

Moisture is also streaming into the GOM from the Epac...

It's an area that needs to be watched carefully over the next week or so.

Part of this pattern when we are neither here nor there, with high pressure building, fronts pushing, low pressure forming down to the South (Carib/GOM) and when shear lightens just a bit we end up with an opportunity for tropical development. I'm not saying CAT 5... I'm saying strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane....if all works out as models are beginning to indicate. And, climo... well there's a reason you get big storms late in the season. Mitch refused to die down in the Caribbean, Hurricane Grace in a slow year became the perfect storm. Rita...Sandy.. I don't want to sound like a commercial on TWC for catastrophic insurance adjusters but it's that strange cocktail that when you shake it becomes a potent tropical drink.

There's a reason Twisters form at the tail end of frontal boundaries and a dry line is a dry line. They don't form in fair, boring weather do they? Hurricanes often need that little twist of lime and to be shaken easy to be a real tropical cocktail.

Call it whatever you want..the concept is the same.

Today is Monday. I was never a hippie. That was before my time, though my daughter born in the 80s is a bit of a hippy. Either way the song resonates through time..