Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, September 18, 2015

Invest 96L Over FL --- TD 10 (IDA?) and TD 9 Moving Madness and Musical Thoughts on My Messy Life ;)

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Let's start with Invest 96L as its close to land...
...lots of land!!

40% chance of development in 5 days.

There's a part of it in the GOM... down near FL Keys. 
There's a part of it off East Coast.
Remember Danny? Erika? Grace?
Same set up....
Center swirls to the West 
Convection swirls to the East

Remember there's a lot of weather there... every where....

Let's take a look at the NHC map

Oh my goodness... we have Tropical Depression 10..
And 9 still...  though 9 looks kind of weak....

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You can see 10 forming.
9 won't be there much longer so look FAST!!
TD 10 could be Ida as 9 wasn't up to it.

It's very swirly.
A lot of convergence and convection.
Upper Level Low twisting in the Caribbean.
A front diving down... then it stops.
ULL in the Atlantic.

If there was a game called whips and chains...
That would describe this season.
I'll let you come up with your own images there to think on..

If a picture's worth a thousand words.
Mike spins a novel every day ...
...with his grid of looping pictures.

Let's look close up...
Mike's models for 9 and 10... 
Hmnnnn similar . . . 

Can 10 do what 9 could not do?
Only time will tell.
But Mike will be discussing it on Facebook.

Mike says it all ;)

Mike says it well.
This one might get a name....
...and it's name would be Ida.

I have several ancestors on both sides of the family named Ida.
I can't figure out why it was such a big name back when.

Tropical Storm Ida?
Sounds weak... sweet.... soft.... time will tell.

Moving back to the big news...

One of my favorite JB songs is Jimmy Dreams..

Let's look at the big orange juice loop

Note 9 losing and 10 taking it.
Note the big cold front oozing down and stopping.
There is a swirl around Florida the problem is..
Florida is in the way.
So it occurs to me Florida is what saves Georgia.
Let's look at the USA this way for a minute.

This is what the US coastline would look like without Florida

Imagine if you can for a moment.
Storms forming down in the Caribbean or the Atlantic.
They move W then WNW then they aim for the coast.
They start to form as they get closer in..
But Florida is in the way...
Some die out as tropical rain.
Some go off towards Texas or the Gulf Coast States.
Others don't get going until they are where Invest 96L is...
Then they go north like Beth in 1971

Imagine if Florida was not there... 

Those hurricanes, major hurricanes would slam into...
..the beaches just south of Valdosta, Ga..
Oh what a hurricane history it would have.

So seems Florida is to Georgia...
...what Hispaniola is to Florida.

Think on it. You'll see I'm right!!

Thank those cousins in Miami!!!!!!

But thankfully we have Florida ;)

There's a yellow X over a beach in Florida.
Okay, just off shore.
Flagler Yellow actually.
Henry Flagler painted his hotels yellow.
I imagine he felt it reminded people of the sunshine....

From St. Augustine to Miami they were Yellow.

Yellow with red trim.
Flagler's colors.

The NHC has deemed the area off the coast of Florida..
Invest 96L near Saint Augustine...
And near the West Coast...
Which is it?
Sort of like selling the sunshine... 

Henry sold the beaches and the sunshine.

He sold the beach girls.

He sold the hotels with pools if you didn't like the beach..

He didn't say nothing about hurricanes ;)
(little tropical surprise there)

Even after he knew Florida had them.. 
..he kept selling the beach.

Henry Plant sold Tampa...

That's a different Henry and a different story for another day.
If you get to Tampa ever...go to the museum at UT.
There are awesome pics of the 1921 Hurricane.

So there is an invest of the coast of Florida.
Near Henry Flagler's First Florida Beach.
Before the Space Center moved in..
It follow the coast towards other beaches.

From the Florida Georgia Line to the NC/SC Line..
It will be a rainy day at the beach.
Tybee Island, Charleston, Wrightsville.
Check the weather before you go this weekend.
Might stay off shore.. might not.
Too early to tell.
Check with NWS or ..
just type your city into Google with the word weather.


Note Tuesday thru Friday stormy.

The European Model takes it slow...
The GFS Model moves faster as always.
There is always a timing difference between the two.

If you click on that it explains the European Model.
Rob explains the European keeps it almost stationary off the coast.
It meanders North... eventually NE off shore of New England.

Rob explains his doubts and his thoughts.

We all do in different ways.

What I'm trying to explain is this...
Hurricane Season 2015 is a messy season.
Lots of players, little action.
Strong shear, SAL and El Nino.
Strong Cape Verde Waves but they can't go the distance.

Which leaves us to ... action close in.
Home Grown Trouble.

I cannot get excited about TD 9

She's naked and doesn't have much of a shape.
Pretty face ;) but you need Xray vision glasses to see it.

Reminds me of that old song... 
Is that all there is.....

Then there is TD 10. 

Hard to get excited tho as Mike said it may get a name.

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Has a heart beat, nice and strong...convection.
Spin, banding. 
I may be writing about Ida tomorrow.

Which is why we are obsessing over Invest 96L
It has the potential somewhere along it's messy big gyre..
..of being a player.

So being honest we are looking for Home Grown Trouble.
To be honest perhaps the GFS latched onto the convection.
And the  Euro latched onto root of the trouble down near the Naples, FL.
Keep watching... it's a tropical drama.

For those of you wondering on me and where I've been...

No I'm not on strike waiting for a Hurricane.
Or a Tropical Storm close in...

All that's left in the bedroom here is a few things..
My music box playing Jimmy Buffett.
Staring out the window into the woods one last time...

It's been a long week or two.
Not much in the tropics... 
So I've been busy packing up 
Moving near by... well that's hard to say
Cause part of me is in Miami 
And part of me is in NC
Maybe I'll find a place in between?
Closing down the Raleigh homestead.
Nice modern apartment near shops and able to see the sky.
And, I'll be in Miami soon enough.
But trading in the deck for a balcony...
And for those of you who know me... that's a YAY!
Moving on... or near by when not Florida.

Funny how you move into a place and you wonder...
What it will look like when it snows.
Funny how weather people look at things.
Hate the cold, like the snow.
I wonder how pine trees will fall.
How a ficus tree will fall.
I see weather.
I know weather.
Weather happens.

I can see the sky 
And, I can't see the sky here in the Cul-de-sac

I'm not a Cul-de-sac person.
My in laws in LA lived in one... 
...that was nice you could see the mountains.
In North Carolina they have trees, tall trees...
...and they block out the light and the sun and the sky.

Natural Area is a word for "woods you can see thru"
I don't like woods.
I mean I like driving through the woods.

I don't want to grow tomatoes.
I buy them at Fresh Market.... a block from the apartment ;)

I'm a beach girl.
If there are mountains by the beach ... bonus BOGO!

Having an argument with someone... of the kids...

People are not owned.
When you love someone you don't let them get away.
Life teaches you the hard way I guess.
A boy who doesn't love a girl right..
Loses her... or he gets smart.
And if she is there for the grabbing...
...a smart guy grabs her and seals the deal!

Or he's a stupid boy. 
Plain, simple, sad, true.

Cause the girl will move on..

Surfing through songs.

Because somewhere there is someone waiting to love a woman.

Trust me.

Hurricanes are simple to understand vs a woman.
They shoot off the coast of Africa..
Like balls in a pin ball machine.
One after another.
But the pin ball machine is tilted at an angle.
..before you see the TILT sign it's tilted!
So they can't hit all those bells that wrack up the score.

The high is too strong.
The high has a break in it.
The storm goes for the break... fast.
The shear is strong, the storm fights the shear..
...even when it knows its going to lose.
The storm feels warm water below it's core......
....and the storm dances...
But the storm needs a center.
A hard real core center.
So things can intensify properly..
Energy can climb higher and higher.
So the storm can spin faster and faster.

This year's Cape Verde Waves can't do it..
If next year we have waves like this ...
...and El Nino is gone.. maybe.
But it's always something.

(what is a Peggy Lee song and you get different ads?_

Weather people are a little crazy.

We like crazy......
We like storming scenes.
We like rainbows 
We like beautiful sunrises and stunning sunsets.
We like the snow falling silently.
We like the ping ping ping of hail hitting steel.
We like watching clouds.
We like feeling the wind messing up our hair
We don't like boring.

You wanted a blog about the tropics?
Find me some tropical weather...
Find me any weather...

I'm not going to get excited about a black olive tree falling down.
That's what black olive trees do...
...they fall DOWN.
Miami is really sorry they let develops put them in..

This is my blog.
This is my goal to get into your soul.
If you love weather...the way I do.
Then keep reading :) 

And, thank your patience ... 
..I'll be back with more on Invest 96L
TD 10 that might become IDA

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps. Love the music box still ;) 


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