TS Joaquin... Landfall or Fish Storm? Whole East Coast is Watching. And, Invest 90L Remnants of Ida Plus Behind him.

NHC shows a strong, strengthening Tropical Storm and a Yellow X tonight!

What a difference 2 days make. Two days ago I thought there might be a chance that the remnants of Ida would come back to life and be where the J storm is now... I saw the possibility for a system to get under the High and caught there... but it happened with the old Invest. Yet, Ida's remains are alive and now have a 60% chance of following the J storm where ever he goes.

To illustrate what a difference 2 days make.

Look at the 3 Day for TS Joaquin

If I was living in the Florida Keys that would get my attention fast!

Now look at the 5 day for TS Joaquin....

Hmnnn that's a sharp turn.

Seems they are expecting a deep, trof to grab it.

In Raleigh this week it has rained and rained and rained.

I'd LOVE to see a front dive down and see blue skies again...

Models vary of course.

I'm going to put up a fast post and then update it later this evening.

So if you are reading this tonight...check back soon and I'll have more info.

Tropical Storm Joaquin

That looks awfully close to South Florida.

And, like it's organizing quickly tonight.

There is very warm water and not too much shear right there.

The shear forecast will change in a few days.

Depending on how slow or fast he moves.

Note I heard Norcross said he wouldn't be surprised to see him become strong. I believe he mentioned 100 mph or 95 mph but I have to confirm that. That's higher than the NHC has forecast his strength.

Where is he going?

Good question.......

Seems had I been writing yesterday there was a whole OMG NYC set up.

NJ still is in many of the models... 

The NHC keeps it off shore for now.

Yet the models are not all that reliable just yet.

And, once he becomes a hurricane...

... I'd bet the models change a bit.

Also how strong is that frontal boundary really?

Ida's remnants (sounds like a novel) are just behind Joaquin

Note on the NRL while looking at Invest 90L (Ida's remnants plus..)

You can see the J Storm to it's left.

This is a ways out still but everyone on the East Coast ....

...should keep an eye on their local weather.

Note either way the pressure gradient with a strong front... 

If it's that strong.............

And a storm off shore could produce high surf and more rain...

And in areas where the ground is already soaked.

Any strong winds, from a strong front or an off shore storm...

...will bring down a lot of trees.

And, that is probably a best case scenario.

Worst case scenario is obviously being hyped by many.

I'll be back in a bit.

I just wanted to put this up now..

Updating it in real time.

Thanks for your patience and love you all!

Besos Bobbistorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter if you'd like to talk

Ps.. no this is NOT Sandy (rolling eyes)

But I would wonder if its an Arthur sort of set up.