Cat 3 Joaquin, The Face of Joaquin. Where is it Going? Models & NHC Debate it's Track.

This is a screen capture from tonight's discussion.

Jim Williams and his side kick Bill... were discussing...

www.hurricanecity.com was live with Joaquin talk.

I realized in the middle of their tropical chit chat...

Joaquin was staring longingly SW towards Cuba...

While the models pick him up and pull him North.

I'll be honest with ya.. sometimes storm people..

... like Jim and I see shapes in clouds.

It's a sort of game we do.. 

I'm sure you do it too!

Rarely do I see such a poetic ghostly looking face tho...

So decided to share it and my thoughts.

He was explaining how the ULL is supposed to form and ... 

pull it up... as the models imply.

Well the Euro model has a different solution..

...hold that thought I'll get back to it.

Jim knows hurricane just as Mike from Spaghetti Models knows WXR.

That's capitalized on purpose.

They do not have doctorate degrees in meteorology.

But they are the ones to watch as often they speak the truth.

Without political agendas or having their hands tied like the NHC at times.

They do not answer to studio heads or producers as on TWC.

They are worth their weight in gold.

Their friendship is priceless.

I listen to them as much as I do most with degrees.

Enough with my agenda here.

Greg Fishel in Raleigh tonight spoke on a political war of sorts.

He talked on how money was spent to improve our models after Sandy.

The EURO always beating out our models.....

... money was spent to upgrade our models.

He said... if the Euro is right...

Well I will paraphrase it.. people are going to wonder where all the $ went.. 

Money greases the wheels of life. 

The budget for the NHC should be MUCH BIGGER.

But it is not, money goes to global warming research.

To studying the habits of moths in far away locations.

Money goes into weather modification ...

Money should go into better modeling.

Joaquin with the hard to pronounce name may drive home this point.

Some models have Joaquin slamming up the Potomac into DC.

A true outsider trying to get into DC it seems.

Other models, like the EURO, take it out to sea.. LBAR did earlier.

Hmnn Euro in bed with the LBAR.. who knew?

Tonight Joaquin is a Category 3...

And he has dreams of being a Cat 4 down the road.

Discussion out of the NHC shows how easy this may be.

Note Joaquin is forecast to hit 140 MPH.

Category 4

I put this up before I show the cone.

As being a Cat 4 could be a game changer.

And, it stays strong for a while.

Here's the models first.

You can see how the NHC draws its cone...

A lot of the models have Carolina on their mind.

Purposely chose that video as it is slow... like Joaquin.

I'm in the cone ...

Inside the Navy cone and way inside.

Though part of the cone is out to sea... 

like the ships going safely out to sea...

The NHC weighs in with their cone.

Nice long loop.

Loop it.

http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/current/satellite/goeseast-wv.php

Last frame tonight.

Shows why Joaquin went SW.

Went, traveled, moved... did not DRIFT.

An upper level low may form (as per models) ..

And scoop Joaquin up and move it North.

That is what Jim was talking on earlier.

I'll just throw out some early runs tonight.

I'll post Jason because... I have always had a soft spot for Jason ;)

And, its purple... I digress.

This truly bugs me. 

Just showing what the models are burping up tonight.

Bad sushi maybe? 

As the NHC has a good chunk of the East Coast in this..

It's time the models made up and came together.

It's as if someone lit a match and it explodes North.

I do think the timing is off... 

Every one is up tonight ...

scratching their head and making attempts at feeble humor.

On one hand you have a Cat 3 Storm.

Cat 4 Thursday possibly.

A weak front.

A strong major hurricane.

Models that won't agree.

The NHC....

...putting most of I-95 in their cone.

We keep hoping to get better modeling...

And we keep getting strange solutions.

The NHC is trying to blend, average out the models.

Stay tuned ... 

As Matt said earlier..........

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps ... my gosh how many versions of that song have you sent me??