Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Joaquin Pushing Cat 2 Status... Moving SW at 8 MPH. So many questions on the models & US Landfall UP the Coast. Needs to make a U Turn..

At 5 PM Category 1 Hurricane Joaquin has sped up to 8 MPH SW and intensified all afternoon steadily. Over warm water and low shear the center of Joaquin is doing the Bahamas while a good part of the Mid-Atlantic awaits his much anticipated Northerly turn...  Look carefully on the loop below and you will see his eye popping out from far away.

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Showing Joaquin before I discuss the NHC cone.

Note he has been pushed SW by a strong flow all day.

See the dark blues to his NE pushing down on him.

A before and after view of this is below.

First image 12 hours ago, next image current as of 5 PM.


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Note the dry air is shoved South of him to Panama.
Do you see that? 
That's a strong flow.

Joaquin is a strong hurricane pushing Category 2 strength.

The frontal boundary is weak looking compared to the push SW.

Listening to Norcross as I type this.
After years of listening to him can feel his thoughts almost.
Met him too.. heard him speak at Met Conferences.
He's concerned. You can hear it.
And, HE keeps mentioning South Carolina to NE.

Could the Euro be right?
Perhaps if Joaquin lingers down near South FL..
And the front fades away... 
But it's hard to see him going out to sea... 
...without something to drag him out to sea..
And the current push to the SW is strong.

So what is the Euro seeing or missing?
Can't interview it so we will have to wait and see.

Joaquin getting close to Cuba at this point. 
Out flow ...moving SW at 8 MPH.
That's movement NOT crawling.

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Look how solid Joaquin is...
Look how weak the front is....

Now we move on to the NHC 5 PM advisory.

I'll let you all read the discussion yourselves.

Noteworthy part explaining track is as follows:

For those of you who don't know geography well...
...this comes into the DC area...

The cone takes it anywhere from the SC NC line to NE & far inland to PA
New Jersey is definitely in the long range parts of the cone...
NYC metro and parts of Long Island.

This is a HUGE job for the NHC to nail this track down.
And to get intensity and timing right.

Personally I feel they are missing something.
Timing I think is off... 
Let's be realistic it has not followed the forecast well so far...

Let's be honest....
...Joaquin is slipping South... into warm water.
Low shear ... rare this year.

I am not saying it's not going to make the big turn North.
But you can see why Norcross keeps mentioning SC vs Delmarva.

Check that with yesterday or the day before.
No longer due E of Miami and Palm Beach is it?

Joaquin looks like a fighter who is bulking up for his fight.

These are my thoughts.
I'll add other people's thoughts later this evening.
I try not to read too many other blogs or videos as I want to be fresh.
I want to be unique and not just repeat what everyone else says.
But I will update this evening with other thoughts around the web.

Funktop is all about the green.
Joaquin must have some Irish ancestry ;)

And eye peaking out.
Tight pinwheel spinning.

Wind probabilities show a large spread of uncertainty

Honestly there is extreme uncertainty.

I have 2 things to say before taking a break.

Where is the ULL going to form?
Can't see it yet... can see where it could, but...
And........note how low Joaquin is now .... 
..he is disappearing off the Eastern US satellite site.

But you can see Joaquin on the Caribbean loop now...

Note that eye on the last few frames.
Cat 2 by 11 PM I'd say...if not now.
Barometric pressure is there...
967 pressure ??
...waiting on the winds to increase now.

Models keep calling for a sharp U turn.
Note cruise ships in Bahamas are being rerouted.
For now... Joaquin is IN the Bahamas and moving SW 

Message to Joaquin:

You are supposed to make a U Turn...

If you trust the NHC and the models ...
..we are 3 days away from big problems.

3 Day Cone

Stay tuned...

All I know for certain is tonight he is going SW at 8 MPH.
Anything beyond that is speculation and forecasting... 

If the Euro wins this shoot out... 
... they should drop the model game and go with it.

Note they were badly burned this year following models...
...and not watching the storm.

Hard to discount it but on one side you have the EURO...
...all the other models basically go the other way.
If this was a tug of war.... the Euro would fall down.

Where is he going?
When will he get there?

Stay tuned..

Besos BobbiStom

Ps.. not going to show models that so far have been wrong. has them all ;)

Check back later tonight for an update!


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