Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

UPDATED !! Hurricane Joaquin Strengthening. Landfall possible in 5 Day Track. Intensity Question is Huge... Intensity Affects Everything and NHC not great on Intensity Forecasting ...hopefully getting better

At 2 PM Hurricane Joaquin is 85 MPH.
Barometric Pressure dropping.
Wind speed is up.

Still headed SW at 6 MPH.

A good illustration of this is below.

Wind history below from NHC

Future projected wind history.

Note too many storms have done that.

The closest I can currently find is Diana in 1984.
Well Chuck in Fayetteville NC came up with that one.

Not the best as it looped twice.
With weak steering currents that happens.
Most models sling shot it up into NC and VA FAST...
..once it starts moving N again...but it hasn't yet.

Chick posted this a little while ago.
Mets are beginning to take the models seriously.
The stronger Joaquin gets the more seriously they will take him.

Everyone wants to know do I buy the GFS or Euro.
I don't buy either. I only bet on sure things.
Sure things are watching the hurricane.
Knowing climo and hurricane history.
Watching the front (where is the front...)

Everyone is watching from the Florida Keys to Maine.

You got to admit that SW movement is odd.
Happens. Happens with odd storms.
Hurricane Alice in 1954 and 1955 went SW.

New Years Eve Storm.

Where's the cold front?

Where's the big bad front???
sat_ir_enh_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

It feels like summer in October in Raleigh.
Roses in bloom. 83 degrees at 3 PM.
The front is there somewhere.
Is it strong enough?
Maybe we will wait for the next front?
Maybe upwelling.... 
I keep saying I won't say "maybe" but then...
..a long comes Joaquin

Look at that eye.... 

All those Cape Verde Waves and none could do what Joaquin did...
...found a spot close in, a sweet spot... Home Grown.

It's as if he doesn't want to move.... but he will.

And, where will he go?

Stay tuned.
Full update this evening.
New model discussion and a look at more thoughts.

Check out the discussion from the NHC.
Well written and long.
Brings up many important points.

Truth is I adore Beven. 
Don't tell him cause ... its not good for his ego ;)
and i meant that!


3 points to remember .... while reading the 5 PM and 11 PM

Please continue reading from earlier.
I showed 4 possible storms that affected similar areas...
...from the same position.

I'll update later, everything below is STILL VALID.

Besos BobbiStorm

11 AM

Up close look at an intensifying Hurricane.

ft-animated.gif (720×480)

Note speed has picked up just a drop ...
...still SW moving at 6 MPH forward speed.

Intensity up to 80 MPH.
Consistent with an eye like feature...
A track with the infamous hook possible to the left (West..)
Note we are talking possibly Cape May Monday.
That is not a long range forecast.
This is not a 10 day out wild card for a CV Wave.
This is a close in, home grown hurricane.
And currently still heading SW.
I put emphasis on that direction as it's important.
It may be a short term movement but... has long term ramifications.

1. Water is hot and gives Joaquin a chance to strengthen.
2. Shear there is low and gives Joaquin a chance to strengthen.
3. Makes a turn out to sea down the road need to be sharper.

By the way if someone tells you...
Models show a Cat 4 Hurricane...'s true some models went ballistic last night.
Few of us got much sleep last night.
When Cantore came on and started posting ...
...I knew I was up way too late.
Other models were conservative.
It's a danger filled road that Joaquin is traveling.
Has many possible targets and inherent pot holes.

So let's look down that road.
Worth noting the Invest behind it has a 70% chance of forming.

I don't want that fact to get lost in the Joaquin shuffle.

There is just so much to say today on the developing problem of Hurricane Joaquin. The many potential, possibilities that could wreak havoc on some city in it's path. The coastal effects of a landfall along the East Coast, including coastal impacts and inland flooding, are valid concerns yet need to be handled without hype or hyperbole. And, yet it IS a huge concern.

1. Joaquin is already close in and the route out to sea becomes sharper and less possible. But, it is possible it turns just before landfall and parallels the coast for most of this coming week.

2. This is HERE not OUT BY AFRICA and location is everything.  Look how close to Florida Joaquin is and how it is already affecting the Bahamas.

vis_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

Those islands ARE the Bahamas.
The coast of Cuba is visible.
The East Coast of Florida is visible on the floater.

3. I don't want to hear about Sandy or how the Euro called Sandy as that was 3 years ago and in meteorological years that was a decade ago. Models are always being revised, reworked and the Euro has shown him going out to sea, making landfall and being out to sea again; not very consistent.

4. Let's look at the models. And, while looking remember this is a very slow moving storm. Slow storms are a problem as if a model gets the timing off just a day or so ... the door slams shut on an exit off stage or it changes landfall from say Norfolk, VA to Ocean City, Maryland. This holds especially true as the storm would be moving north up along the coast and even a matter of degrees makes a difference in this being an OBX storm or a Delmarva storm or New England storm. A matter of degrees makes a track like Bob or a track like Floyd. 

Bob went up along the coast and then inland.
Rainfall along the coast was huge even if the eye was offshore.
Well, until it wasn't off shore anymore.

Both took similar paths along the coast.
Hugely different storms.
Both were huge rainmakers.

Note you don't need to have a Cape Verde Hurricane... make a huge disaster at landfall.

I'm going to post the Sandy track as everyone is screaming SANDY.
Beginning to feel like I'm watching Annie on TWC vs Joaquin.

Oddly had Sandy never hit ... 
Irene would have gone down in history as the big one.
Eclipsed by Sandy a year later. Go figure.

Note Sandy had the "hook" and the forecasted "hook" is in play again.

Now you see how difficult a job the NHC has with regard to Joaquin.

5. The players here are the front aka Trough as always. A developing ULL that could affect him. The role of Joaquin's own intensity, as the stronger he gets the more he can have a part in his own evolutionary track. The intensity forecast may be the fly in the ointment. If you are off on the intensity forecast.... you are off on a lot of other things. A small cut off low may develop or it may not develop or it may develop but not affect a strong hurricane. The front may stall after it moves through and a stalled out front with a strong hurricane to it's SSE is not a good set up. Some possibility of dry air entrapment or light shear developing or....  I will be discussing this in depth later today, in real time, so check back often.

Compare and contrast the way this storm is being handled.

Knabb is focusing now on surf impacts.
Bastardi is focusing on intensity forecasts.

Bastardi and Mauve are concerned with Intensity.
And, so they should be.
What a Cat 1 Hurricane might do ...... NOT what a Cat 3 Hurricane would do..

And, RaleighWX is concerned with getting better model data.
So am I.
The planes are out there, data is coming in.
Hopefully next set of model runs will be more reliable.
Because garbage in is as we know garbage out in the model business.

I'll be back with more thoughts soon.
Besos Bobbistorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter.

Ps Adding in here... good to take this all with a grain of salt.
Yet salt is in these days again and is so is hype.
Keep in touch with your local weather if you are in the track of Joaquin.

Your local emergency planners are watching out.
So should you be... just in case.
 Biggest concern right now is the rain.
If the NHC pulls the cone to the left....
...add in winds, storm surge and other tropical troubles.


At 12:51 PM, Blogger BP said...

Very cool write up. Nice. Thanks. Seems as it gets stronger, the track will have less of a left hook because the storm penetrates further up into the jet-stream which is aligned more SSW to NNE. Cheers. Blair.


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