Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, July 07, 2013

Tropical Storm Chantal Forms in the Atlantic...

Have to tell you I've rarely seen a storm that has hung in there so tough and gone so far with so little model support.



As predicted here all night... 95L was upgraded to a Tropical Storm tonight. 

The Navy site changed it's label to 3 vs just 95L and she has been gaining lat all night while slowly, steadily intensifying. Obviously she is a Tropical Storm. But, still we had to wait until the NHC made the call. 

[Image of 5-day forecast of predicted track, and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

So.... now we have our cone... but what is really bothering me?
What's been bothering me all night is not the tropics.. it's the front that is moving through Western Carolina.
And, the forecast for another front to dive down even further south next week.

And... an ULL out ahead of  this system is diving down and ventilating it. 
So much for the wall of shear the models predicted...
I know that old annoying saying...what doesn't kill it.. 
It's all about location, location and location..sort of like Real Estate.

A lot of discussion tonight over the Advisories being written currently..
TS or TD..
The answer is Tropical Storm Chantal!

Either way... it's about where it's going
This storm has a possibility to give someone a real problem.

Also, hard not to stare at the ULL that is bearing down on South Florida. Yes, it's an ULL but it looks very tropical and it shows patterns and affects steering currents and everything in the tropics is related.

Visible Water Vapor - GOES East 12 hr Loop

Stop the image and look at the leash of moisture that runs from the ULL in the Bahamas down towards our storm of the hour. 

Visible Water Vapor - GOES East Current

Also look at the loop that shows the roll has closed off and Tropical Storm Chantal is rolling with a name and going somewhere very fast. 

Also look up above at that picture and you see two things... one a cold front along I95 AGAIN and then back near Oklahoma and New Mexico..another storm moving East.  When you get this sort of flow with a strong high and developing tropical storms you have problems.

This storm is coming on strong tonight. She is mesmerizing to watch.

And, where have all the tropical waves before her gone? Into the Carib or WNW ...NW up towards Florida and the Bahamas ?  Where is the moisture going? Follow the orange and notice the tight round ball that is Chantal ...however you cut it...

As for shear.. it's not down here... it's up there near south of  the ULL that is moving west over FL... and into the Gulf of Mexico.

I'll be back in the morning with more informatin. 

What a night... July 7th, 2013 the 3rd named storm of the 2013 Hurricane Season formed... buckle your seatbelts it IS going to be a bumpy season and ..............AGAIN... make your lists, get supplies and do not rely on forecasts that can and often do change. For now the storm pulls north off the coast of South FLorida but alot will change between now and then... maybe just a matter of degrees, but those degrees can be the difference of her scraping the coast at Hollywood Beach or staying off shore... or even bigger changes.

Sweet Tropical Dreams of Chantal...



Post a Comment

<< Home