Hurricane Harbor: 70% Red Circle.. NRL Has a Grid Up With Projected Track for the "C" Storm

Looking good, all in all, looking very good. She wasn't supposed to get this far ...

The Navy site blinked this evening & put up a map grid. Usually that's a prelude to an upgrade to Storm status. A good sign...

Not sure what the NHC is waiting for ... Maybe recon.. maybe a better satellite image or a ship report or maybe it needs to get about 10 North for them to take it seriously?

It's still far away...

Guessing I'll wake up and see it's Chantal.

Getting curious about the system behind it.

Pretty solid looking...

What's concerning me is the shape of the high and the depth of the trough that is supposed to come down next week. We have one now currently in North Carolina.. a frontal boundary moving down.

See the front moving East... as the disturbance that should soon be Chantal moves west or wnw.

Note the lows for this weekend are well...low.

Sun

91°

72°

Mon

88°

72°

Tue

91°

73°

Wed

91°

73°

Thu

88°

72°

Fri

86°

66°

Sat

82°

68°

Sun

86°

72°

Let's go to Wrightsville Beach, NC.

Short term weather discussion:

THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL WEATHER THRU
OUT THE UPCOMING WEEK...HOWEVER ITS POSITIONING WILL SLIDE
SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD
FRONT TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE NEXT UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

If you can make sense of this long term discussion ...it goes basically likes this. The High takes a vacation and there is a system over the Tennessee Valley which is retrograding...there is a blocking ridge... tropical moisture is due to move inland or around the area... gets messy:

BERMUDA HIGH AT THE SURFACE AND FLAT RIDGING ALOFT WILL CREATE ONE
LAST DAY OF TEMPS AT TO ABOVE CLIMO WITH A LOT OF SUNSHINE AND
LITTLE CONVECTION. THEREAFTER...UPPER TROUGHING BEGINS TO BUILD DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY GET HELD UP AND
WASH OUT JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...DECREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES...LEADING TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. AT THE SAME TIME...TROPICAL WAVE WHICH HAS BEEN PROGGED
TO MOVE BENEATH THE BERMUDA HIGH AND INTO FLORIDA WILL FEED SOME OF
ITS MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING FRIDAY. THIS ENHANCED
MOISTURE...PWATS RISING TO OVER 2 INCHES...COMBINED WITH THE STEEPER
LR`S IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL SUPPORT EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE A SEVERE THREAT ATTM...BUT HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN AROUND CLIMO THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH LOWS HOVERING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE.

WEATHER COULD DETERIORATE MORE CONSIDERABLY FOR NEXT WEEKEND. 5H
TROUGH CLOSES OFF IN RESPONSE TO STRONG AMPLIFICATION OF THE
FLOW...AND BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS FORCES
THE CLOSED LOW TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST...WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. IN A PATTERN EERILY
REMINISCENT OF THE END OF JUNE...CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE TN VLY WITH
BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE OCEAN WILL DRIVE TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AND A WET PERIOD AGAIN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE. FORTUNATELY...AT
LEAST FOR D6/D7...IT DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS ROBUST AS THE PATTERN WE
SAW TO CLOSE OUT JUNE...BUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY FOR NEXT WKND.

Melbourne, FL discussion:

FRIDAY/WEEKEND...AMPLIFICATION OF EAST COAST TROF SHUNTS WRN ATLC
RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

Front 1... Front 2 behind it:

current color enhanced goes east infrared image

July 13th... look where the cold front is with it's adjacent low pressure system.

Now our phantom not named system is not on this map... if she is down in the Caribbean she would be pulled north. If she is in the Atlantic she'd feel an irresistible force pulling her north towards those double lows and she might want to merge with the front... or some sort of similar set up. Florida would be in play if the high pulls away. The Carolinas would be in play. Then again she could be playing down in the Caribbean.

A lot of Lows set up across the US there. I could TWELVE Low pressure systems. Odd..and throw in a possible tropical low called Chantal. Now what would Chantal do?

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

Last image after the one above is more intriguing. Shows a low down near South Carolina where the front finally dies out a bit.

Note the isobars around the High begin to close in and they would force a storm inland... a theorized storm but lets play Fantasy Hurricane here... the exit out to the Atlantic is snapped shut.

The much aligned Canadian Model shows this scenario... slides along Florida and BAMB into Carolina.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2013070712&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

(loop it go ahead...)

Other models do different things...but hey we are playing fantasy so let's play with the Canadian ;)

And, if she forms that will be your long range cone... wide for now until more information comes in and we have better info from Chantal...if she becomes Chantal...and she probably will.

Recon goes out tomorrow supposedly...so we will know more with more better data.